Some months back regular readers of this blog scoffed when I said here that one of the biggest hindrances to a new beginning in Kenya is retired president Moi. Many months later Kenyans have discovered how powerful Moi really is.
Who else can get the government to break the law it is supposed to uphold and carry out a shoddy so-called coup in Kanu and in broad daylight throw out the legitimate officials and replace them with a bunch of nobodies going nowhere? Persons totally bankrupt of any new ideas?
And it does not stop there. The government is clearly ready to confront and crash any move aimed at reversing what has happened in Kanu, even if it ends in bloodshed. After all what is the big deal if one or two rowdy ODM supporters die attending a demonstration that the government has already declared illegal?
However the big question Kenyans should be asking themselves is why can’t Moi bear to let go? What is he protecting? What is he hiding? Why is it that certain Kenyans seem to be so terrified of the Biwott/Moi camp? The same Biwott/Moi camp that has been linked to death threats on both the Goldenberg commission and the Sunguh committee that was set up to investigate the still unsolved murder of former foreign minister Robert Ouko? Incidentally nothing has yet come out of either set-ups which were run at great expense to the Kenyan tax payer. Does that in itself not tell you what is really happening.
My fellow Kenyans has it not yet dawned on you that Moi is still president? Oh yes, the de jure President is Kibaki, but the de facto president is definitely Daniel T. Arap Moi. Little wonder that nothing has really changed.
P.S. One other reason why Moi and Biwott are more powerful than Kibaki is because they have a "Mafia" to deal with people who don't play ball. Clean-politics President Kibaki does not.
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It is widely held that Raila Odinga won the 2002 election for Kibaki. Themyth goes that since Kibaki had lost previous elections to Moi, in 1992 and in 1997, then he was not going to win in 2002. He won only because of Raila’s help. It often stressed, rightly, that a month towards the 2002 election, Kibaki was involved in a car accident which literary finished him off, but certainly
ReplyDeletetook him off the campaign trail.
It is at this moment when Raila declared that the football game must go on even if the captain was injured. This was reminscent of his father,Jaramogi Odinga Oginda stating that Kenya cannot be independent unless Kenyatta was released from prison by the colonial authorities.
Since then, Raila has never let an opportunity pass without claiming
credit for the 2002 victory, and without reminding Kibaki that he won that election for him.
So did Raila really win this election for Kibaki?
I would be first person to perpetuate this myth if Raila had been fair to Kibaki which he has not. Because he has chosen to play hardball, subjecting the country to unnecessary suspense for no apparent reason, myths that he has actively constructed must now be deconstructed.
After being lured to join KANU by Moi, Raila had by 2002, been boxed to acorner by the same Moi. Having joined KANU with the promise and hope that he would be the presidential candidate in 2002, Moi trashed whatever MOU existed between him and Raila, and declared that Uhuru would be the presidential candidate.
As can be expected, Raila was raving mad, and decided to bolt. Together with other pissed off KANU types such as Kamotho and Saitoti, who had himself been passed over when he was told “wee prefessor keti chini!” in Kasarani, and others like Kalonzo who had been serving dictatorship in the hope that they would be nominated, they left KANU. They started holding a series of meeting to decide who amongst themselves would be the presidential candidate.
Kalonzo, Saitoti, Raila, Kamotho? They could not agree.
At that time, Kibaki, Wamalwa and Ngilu, had already achieved the elusive opposition unity that had eluded them for a decade. It is important to note that these three would have garnered for their presidential candidate nearly 50% of the national population just by relying on their communities
– the GEMA, Abaluhya and Kamba – alone.
So, with the promise of 50 % of the national population, what really did Raila bring?
To believe that Raila brought the rest of the vote needed to elevate
Kibaki beyond the bar, is to believe that Raila was responsible for the fate of the rest of the national support. It is to believe also that Saitoti, Kalonzo, Ntimama, and others who left Moi did not exercise sway over their own supporters. It is also to believe that these people were beholden to Raila and were bound to do exactly what Raila told them to do.
Wouldn’t it be more sensible to believe that if Raila had the support of these people, he would have gone for the presidency himself?The fact is, they were all suspicious of him, and they were ready to give their support to anyone rather than Raila.
Hence when the idea came up that Kibaki could be supported, these leaders were relieved. Kibaki, therefore, benefitted from a protest vote against Raila, and so in that sense, Raila assisted him to win. I concede that point without a fight.
What is important to realize is that having left KANU, and being wary of being called a spoiler again after what he did to FORD, Raila did not really have a choice but to join the now already united opposition. Contrary to common perception, Raila did not solve the problem of opposition unity which had dogged the Kenyan opposition since multipartysim – he merely joined the unity that was already very advanced.People would not have forgiven him if he had done otherwise.
Moreover, in Raila’s own calculations, Kibaki was weak and easy to deal with compared to Moi; he figured it would be easy to remove him from power. Thus he made the same mistake that Njonjo made of assuming that Moi was a “passing cloud.”
But what do the numbers show? The results of the 1997 general election
were as follows:
Daniel T. arap Moi (KANU) 40.12 %
Mwai Kibaki (DP) 31.09 %
Raila Odinga (NDP) 10.20 %
Michael Wamalwa (FORD-Kenya) 8.29 %
Charity Ngilu (SDP) 7.71 %
This means that Kibaki, Wamalwa and Ngilu, assuming that their popularity had had remained constant in the intervening period, could have been expected to rake in 47.09 % of the total vote.This means also that without counting support from Raila, it was possible for Kibaki with the support of Wamalwa and Ngilu, to have won 47.09 % of the total vote.
Notice another fact: in 2002, Moi was barred by the constitution from
contesting. He was out of running. The new KANU candidate, whoever he wasgoing to be, was not guaranteed to get the 40.12 % that Moi received in 1997. Anybody else Moi would have foisted would have had to compete with Kibaki who had better credentials as an outsider, and who was, presumably,going to start with a 47.09 % vote.
This means that if Moi had respected the MOU between him and Raila anddecreed that Raila be the presidential candidate, Raila would have faced amuch stronger Kibaki than the Kibaki of the 1997. And Kibaki beat Raila soundly in 1997.
The fact that Raila got 10.10 % of the total national presidential vote in 1997 is also important. It shows that this percentage corresponds with the total Luo population which is at 13 %. In all fairness, this is the vote that Raila would have been expected to deliver to Kibaki in 2002.
Was he able to deliver this vote? Let us interrogate the 2002 election
results further.
Kibaki received 279,683 votes in Nairobi, 701,916 votes in Central,
748,273 in Eastern, 34,916 in North Eastern, 228,913 in Coast, 626,266 in Rift Valley, and 507,386 in Western. This adds up to a total of 2,847,949votes out of the total 5,869,788 cast, or 48.5 % of the total votes cast, which corresponds nicely with the 47.09 % vote Kibaki would have got withthe support of only Wamalwa and Ngilu based on their 1997 support levels.
Raila’s Luo Nyanza gave Kibaki a total of 509,965 votes. No one is
discounting this vote as insignificant. As a total of all the votes that Kibaki got, this adds up to 14 %. However, it is clear that despite the existing euphoria, the Luo did not vote enthusiatically for Kibaki.According to Electoral Commission of Kenya, Nyanza had 1,564,675 registered voters in 2002, out of which only 856,837 voted. Of this, Nyachae took 270, 159 (31.5 %), Uhuru 66,162 (7.7%), Orengo 9,467 (1.1 %),and Ng’ethe 1,084 (0.1%). In other words, a total of 346, 872 votes in Nyanza were given to someone else other than Kibaki – under Raila’s watch. In all, a total of 707, 838 votes in Nyanza, or nearly half, an usually high number, were not used, despite Raila’s supposed spirited campaign for Kibaki. You can expect that the Kisii, the other big community in Nyanza, voted for their man, Nyachae, in large numbers. What happened to the Luo vote? Why was turnout so low?
The only other places with significant Luo population, Langata and
Makandara constituencies, had 114,384 and 108542 registered voters
respectively, but ethnicities in these constituences are so mixed up thatit is impossible to know how many Luo voters there were.
But it is important to ask what would have happened if Raila had stayed in KANU. He would definitely have denied Kibaki the 14 % Luo vote, and probably nothing more. If you add this Luo vote to the 31.6 % that Uhuru
received, you end up with 45.6 %. This means that Uhuru would still have lost to Kibaki in 2002, even if Raila had supported Uhuru. This proves further that Raila saw the winner and run to support him. He did nothing more, nothing less.
But even more significant is that Kibaki would still have won 25 % of the vote in at least seven provinces except Nyanza, meaning he would have easily formed a government without Raila’s mythical support. KANU’s Uhuru, even with Raila’s support, would have won 25 % vote in only six provinces, including Nyanza. As it is, Uhuru received 25% in five provinces, meaning that Uhuru would still have acquited himself well even if Raila had decided not to participate in the elections. With this kind of record, one wonders what Uhuru is doing associating with Raila.
Even more importantly, the entry of Raila appears to have made Simeon
Nyachae to harden his resolve not to join NARC. It is likely that if Raila had stayed in KANU, Nyachae could conceivably have joined Kibaki, Wamalwa and Ngilu in the last minute, bringing the 270,159 votes that he received in Nyanza to Kibaki, and thus putting him well over the 50 % mark. If you look very keenly at Kibaki and Nyachae, there is more that could have potentially united them than there was to unite Kibaki and Raila, barring political opportunism. It should also be remembered that Kibaki’s relationship with the Kisii has been longstanding. James Nyamweya was one of the big wigs in the initial DP, and in 1997, the Kisiis voted for Kibaki in big numbers. It is also possible that Nyachae would have offered
himself to form a coalition government with Kibaki after the elections, just like he eventually did.
So, did Raila really win the elections for Kibaki or did he just assume that by convincing a bunch of Luo rappers to allow the use of the “Unbwogable” song in NARC campaigns, he had played a key role in the electoral outcome? Raila certainly presented a lot of fanfair in the compaigns. There certainly was a lot of song, dance, and entertainment. But why should we continue to think that this spectable produced the results we saw while numbers show otherwise? Is this man an astute propagandist or what?
This myth has been perpetuated with the aid of the Kenyan media,
particularly the Standard. The Kenyan media treats Raila with kid gloves. They don’t want to question his statements and strategies. They make the wrong assumption that because he was one of those who fought dictatorship when it was real and palpable, he is always acting in the national interest, is always right, and is always telling the truth.
Raila has used the myth that he won the election for Kibaki to hold Kibaki to ransom, to make all manner of threats, to demand equal share of government appointments (meaning more key positions for Luos who support him and none for those who don’t), and to make it difficult for Kibaki to administer.
Raila has never won any election for anyone else other than for himself in Langata.
ReplyDeleteI do not want my anger to discredit his contributions to the second liberation (multipartyism in Kenya), he actually suffered and was jailed for his role to bring democracy to our country.
Nevertheless he has become an inconsistent power hungry politician whose popularity is high but is never going to translate into votes.
He is the equal of a beautiful woman who everybody would like to be seen with, but no one wants to marry. They know how many problems will come with her.
@ Kumekucha On the notion that Moi rules Kenya, it is absurd and almost worth not discussing. Please wake up from your slumber and look at Kenyan politics for what it is not based on a romantic idea that Kibaki is just a puppet of other people.
Kibaki and Narc-Kenya intend to win next year's elections. Moi has great influence in Kenya regardless of whether he is retired.
Moi is dissapointed by Uhuru's decision to join hands with Raila / Kalonzo..ODM. Moi has great mistrust for ODM leaders. He did not annoint any of them to head Kanu and his chosen successor has left him.
Kibaki has protected the Moi family from prosecution for all their crime and scandals. And Moi knows that Kibaki will keep protecting him if he continues leading Kenya past 2007.
The Biwott angle comes in only because Moi wants to help the government distabilize the opposition and percieved unity in ODM.
And Kibaki's strategist do not mind any distabilizing of the opposition.
Note that I am not condoning any of the actions by either ODM or Kibaki but rather stating the facts as they are.
So for anyone to declare that Moi / Biwott rule Kenya, is just dissapointing.
It seems like most people who blog believe Kibaki is the most unqualified, irrelevant, weak president in the world.
It is an unfair assessment and people will need to revise their views of Kibaki come January 2008.
Sorry for the long comment, you got me going with Moi / Biwott ruling Kenya.
peace
Hi Chris,
ReplyDeleteGood post-i do agree with it
@3N
personally, i don't think, as you mentioned, that Kibaki is the most unqualified, irrelevant, weakest president in the world. no-i think he
is qualified and he can lead
It's just that i feel-(and i don't know, but i think some Kenyans feel the same way)-that not all that should be well is well in the nation
They've done alot these past 4 years, but i personally think, some things our president hasn't made right should be made right-they are crucial and
without doing so, he could be thought of as being unqualified, weak and irrelevant
You all obviously do not have the information Raila and others in the August house have on Moi and Biwott. Otherwise you would not be saying what you are saying.
ReplyDeleteSome food for thought: Have you noticed that Raila has shifted his attacks to Moi in recent days? Just ask yourself why?
Why do kikuyus hate Raila so much.
ReplyDeleteEvery kikuyu i know if given a chance would kill him.Why?
Money has been poured...
ReplyDeleteRaila will never make it. He knows that. ODM knows that and everyone knows that. Raila is protecting ill gotten wealth by making noise every day. He is a most corrupt leader and the actuall killer of Mbai.
ReplyDeleteIt is rumored and a well known fact that Raila had Mbai killed so that he could garner national support for his course at Bomas and thereafter.
This is from insider information in LDP.