Predictions on Monday's New Kenyan Constitution Referendum

Despite Referendum Violence That Has Claimed 10 Lives So Far, it's all systems go for the Monday vote

It seems that the referendum will go ahead despite some spirited and very genuine efforts to stop it. Three judges On Tuesday gave the poll a go-ahead and thus delivered the country fully into the hands of fate.

You will have noticed that we did not have any articles analyzing the constitution here as earlier promised and for a good reason. When any discussion over the referendum even with close friends gets so emotionally charged than even your friendship seems threatened by it, then you realize that the vote on Monday has nothing to do with the issues at hand. (You can now begin to understand all the referendum violence that has left at least 10 people dead so far).

Rather this whole circus is a bid by some politicians (orange camp) to prove to the government that they still hold sway with the electorate and it is also an attempt by the government (banana camp) to prove that they still have enough backing to rule. The new constitution is totally irrelevant in the whole issue, so why discuss a non-issue.

Analysis on the ground show that the banana side will come off with a surprisingly large win in a low turn out affair. The reaction of the orange group is predictable.

President Kibaki’s close aides were probably very wrong in being so arrogant and sidelining key figures who contributing to the Narc win. They should have at least re-negotiated the memorandum of understanding. But that’s all water under the bridge now.

My advice to all Kenyans is to pray very hard for the day the results of the referendum will be announced.