Jubilee drama: The Raila link

 To put things into proper perspective, let's take a moment to reflect on the past. There was a time when dealing with unconstitutional actions by Parliament required us to speak up. We couldn't let things pass without addressing them. The political dynamics in Kenya are complex, and it’s easy to get lost in the excitement of the moment. I want to make sure we don’t overlook critical details. So, let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

Let me remind you of a significant event in Kenyan politics—the assassination of Tom Boy in the 1960s. As brilliant as he was, Boy made a fatal political mistake. He failed to recognize that in Kenyan politics, the very rivals you aim to defeat may also be the ones you need to survive. Once he eliminated one opponent, Boy became a threat to the government, and his own demise became inevitable. This lesson is crucial to understanding the dynamics at play today.

Fast forward to recent years, the rift between the President and Deputy President started before the 2017 elections. But as long as Raila Odinga and the opposition were a major threat, DP Ruto was a necessary ally for the Jubilee government. However, once the "handshake" neutralized the opposition threat, Ruto became expendable and, in fact, a political liability.

Kenyan politics often revolves around power and control, not development or serving the people. It’s about timing, perceptions of enemies, and who can hold the reins. Regardless of where you stand politically, it's important to analyze the situation from a strategic perspective.

In the 1960s, Tom Boy's political downfall serves as a stark reminder of how ruthless Kenyan politics can be. He helped Jomo Kenyatta’s administration deal with rivals like Odinga, but when he became a threat, his usefulness disappeared, and he was discarded. Similarly, DP Ruto’s political journey mirrors this, especially after the handshake removed the opposition as a threat.

Now, let's talk about the latest drama—the removal of DP Ruto’s supporters in the Senate. This confirms that the Deputy President still controls the Senate numerically, and that’s why such drastic actions were necessary. The lunch meeting between Raila Odinga and Oscar Sudi was undoubtedly political. Sudi, who has ties to powerful figures, plays a critical role in Ruto’s camp. While many might dismiss him as insignificant, he is deeply involved in critical negotiations.

Ruto's camp, however, still struggles to fully understand the moves of the handshake team. Many still believe Raila Odinga will run for president in 2022, but the evidence suggests otherwise. The real players to watch are Gideon Moi and Ali Hassan Joho, who have been strengthening their political ties since 2018.

With the current developments, it’s clear that the President has more control over the Senate than before, making any impeachment motion against him less likely. However, the political landscape remains volatile. The DP’s camp has been caught off guard, and the President now enjoys significant support in the Senate.

Despite the political tension, it’s important to note that this battle is far from over. The war between the President and his Deputy is entering a dangerous phase. The Deputy President has built an extensive network of supporters, and they are fully aware of their loyalty to him. This makes the situation much more precarious, as desperation leads to unpredictable actions. The real casualties of this conflict will be the Kenyan people, who are already suffering from the consequences of this political war.

In conclusion, as the struggle between the two political giants intensifies, the ordinary citizens bear the brunt of it all. While the politicians focus on their power games, the everyday Kenyan continues to face hardships. This is the unfortunate reality of Kenyan politics