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Monday, February 03, 2014

Will CORD's Plan To Remove Uhuru From Power Work?

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These days I don't get the time to relax with cheap thrillers but I am NOT ashamed to say that for many years I have always enjoyed a good James Hardley Chase novel. Yep, those primary school kids novels. I have always been a sucker for the drama, suspense and edge-of-the-seat cheap tricks that make up these small books that were written by a Brit imitating American "thug language."
Raila Odinga
Will this man's calculated sucker punch against the JUBILEE Presidency work?
 


My favourite has always been The Sucker punch which is the story of a perfect murder that went wrong because of one silly little detail. At some point the main character is watching a fight where there is this boxer clearly winning and all over his opponent. But his overconfidence is his undoing because the losing fighter sneaks in one punch that floors him and ends the fight. The sucker punch.

For weeks now there has been lots of excitement in the CORD fold, like there is something big about to happen. And the guys seem to have taken an oath of secrecy or something because my best efforts were met with people who were not going to tell me anything. But about 2 weeks ago CORD principal Kalonzo Musyoka let it slip that elections would be very soon long before 2017. I went and did my research and still could not see how this could be made to happen. At least not legally. Then over the weekend I learnt that there may be a plan to impeach the president over the rampant insecurity in the country.

Still it did not make sense to me because the rubber stamp JUBILEE coalition has the numbers in the senate and overwhelmingly so. I forgot about the ridiculous theory until I hit the shower. In the middle of soaping myself it hit me. There has been widespread rebellion within the ruling coalition. The truth is that currently only a small tiny push will throw things out of control.

Even more interesting is what Katiba says. If such a motion were to be successful then the Deputy President would take over for the remainder of the term. Now that sounds like just the right kind of incentive to rally the entire Rift Valley behind such a motion. To survive the said Deputy president would also need to do business with CORD and so our politics would change overnight and both houses would look very different even with the same legislators. In such a scanrio a fresh election before 2017 becomes a real possibility.

Now insecurity is one subject that is mighty close to Kenyans just now. Police say that an average of 3 matatus are carjacked daily. Some observers say that the number is closer to 10. In some of these incidences women passengers are raped...and even male ones in one or two bizarre cases. Not to mention the fact that many parts of the country that were previously crime free now have unprecedented crime waves sweeping through them. No Kenyan in their right mind would fail to admit the fact that the government has failed in its' fundamental responsibility of guaranteeing security for its' people.

And the crimes are not only increasing but also getting more heinous by the day. Small children being kidnapped for ransoms and then being murdered in cold blood is the kind of thing that would cause any responsible leadership to stop what they are doing and address the problem as a priority. But nah, our government has been too busy with the ICC cases at the Hague. And the little spare time senior police officers have away from their efforts to make huge sums of money using their good offices is all going into rather belated efforts to fight the infiltration by terrorists into the very fabric of Kenyan life. When you allow people to walk into the country and radicalize youths over a long period of time, to them it becomes a normal lecture at the mosque as usual and their right to be radicalized which should NOT be disturbed by police. That is why there was so much blood letting at the Mombasa mosque over the weekend when police finally made a decision to make a move against this practice that has been ongoing for a long time.

In fact if you want to know how serious things are consider the fact that some people are now saying that Uganda is more stable and much safer than Kenya and are being taken seriously.

But back to the sucker punch from CORD. Is it really plausible? Can Raila Odinga's coalition pull it off? My straight answer is that it is plausible but unlikely to succeed. The people who marshaled the whole of Africa against the ICC are likely to make mince meat of CORD and are not the kind of fighters who would fall for a sucker punch from the opposition just now.

Fortunately also for them, they have been spending fortunes trying to destabilize CORD ahead of the ODM elections next week. In fact they have done such a good job of it that the ODM which will emerge from those elections will indeed have a national outlook but will be much weaker than the ODM that led the CORD coalition into last year's general elections. I keep reminding you guys that this is politics and not primary school elections for class prefect.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Look dude i dont know where you get your infomation from but I sometimes wonder wheather it's just wishful thinking on your part. Look this story has no merrit unless a coup takes place and further to that I doubt we can afford one ...The same opposition you so boldy speak about have been part or still part of the same old system that has been around for hundreds of years ....Where there is paper curreny there will be corruption. I'm fortunate enough to look from the outside in and can see similar trends with other countries that are the age Kirinyaga is. Crime wave are you joking ....this is Africa.. Killing is the order of the day as we ourselves as humans do not respect life. So I ask is the goverment at fault for all our financial issues or is it me and you at fault for letting things get to where they are? Our children will judge us by our actions ....silly things like devolution we shall answer for ......As a country I can gusess we spend more than we did before develution and we are probabaly spending more now ....lons will be applied for .....deals will be reached ....who are we kidding...

Anonymous said...

I have no comment.

Anonymous said...

Is that man, the one over there consumed in deep thought, still trying to shadow box with his formidable opponents at the former colonial house on the cursed hill?

Or has he been busy trying to throw a sucker punch or two at his well known political adversaries that are entrenched within the JUBILEE camp?

Lest he forgets the old saying; mpiga ngumi ukuta huumiza mkonowe?

Anonymous said...

Uganda is more stable and much safer than Kenya.

Uganda is famous for its over thirty known varieties of matoke, and several types of groundnuts, also known as peanuts in the western hemisphere and elsewhere.

So, are there some of us who are able to name just five or ten varieties of bananas that are cultivated in Uganda?

Lest few of us forget to mention the other countless varieties that are grown and consumed around the Kilimanjaro region in neighbouring Tanzania.

On the hand, it may be helpful here to explore whether our western neighbours based in Uganda, live in a more stable and much safer environment than their counterparts - Bachenya - who live in what remains of the banana republic of Kenya.

The final report - facts and statistics - on national security, and whether the nation of Uganda is more stable and much safer than Kenya won't be available until later in the month.

But the outcome in terms of the current high rate of crime in urban and rural areas of Kenya continues to speak volumes, while the public is left frustrated and wondering what became of the so-called "official changes that were allegedly instituted within the Kenya police force" several months ago.

Anonymous said...

Compare and contrast the overall job performances of IGP Gen. Kale Kayihura and IGP Kimaiyo. Their skill sets and public records in terms of leadership, management, crime prevention, interaction with the public and media is what separates the two by four hundred degrees.

Anonymous said...

Don't want to take anything away from Odinga, nor do some of us have any real beef against him, however, there are those of us who would like to understand why Odinga has not yet delivered an everlasting gift - that will continue giving - to the people of Kisumu and rest of Nyanza.

Talking of a gift in terms of Odinga using some of the vast personal wealth and family fortune to construct a modern day sports stadium, 40,000 to 70,000 capacity, in Kisumu.

When Raila Odinga son of Oginga Odinga get down to the real business of giving back to community of diehards that have supported him and his family's political legacy over the last fifty years?

Case in point, a stadium like Adrar Agadir Stadium, Al Hoceima Stadium, Widad Faz Stadium, Stade Mohamed V Stadium, Kawkab Marrakech Stadium, Kasba Tadla Stadium, Marrakech Sports Stadium, FUS Rabat Stadium, or Tamley Sports Stadium.

Anonymous said...

Neither preoccupied with whether the launching of Raila charm offensive would be a successful political maneuver against JUBILEE Presidency work at this stage of game, nor nuanced argument on the nature of political force is inherent in the intended and calculated sucker punch.

There are those of us in our midst who need to be reminded of the fact that some people like to roll with the punches, while others prefer to duke it out until the last man is left standing once the dust has settled.

That's where and when a sucker punch always becomes handy or a timely surprise weapon of choice for the underdog in any given uphill battle or fight.

However, people who are prone to throwing sucker punches are not warriors and should never be considered as such in the tradition of Samurai, Ninja, or Maasai warriors.

Parking a sucker punch or relying on it is a sign of cowardice - lack of bravery - that is akin to the last kick of a dying horse, mule, or punda.

But back to the sucker punch from CORD. Is it plausible? Can Raila Odinga's coalition pull it off?

CORD will not be able to remove Kenyatta from power work, let alone manage to stall any one of his monumental projects such as MSA-NBI railway, etc., or even throw a monkey wrench into what seems to be well greased pinion gears of Kenyatta's current administrative machinery that has already firmly set its eyes on the next prize in 2017.

As for Kenyatta's ICC trial, the whole process may last up to five or eight years, or worse, it may end up in a mistrial or dismissal.

An outcome that may not be in the best legal interests of post-election violence victims, and particularly for Kenyatta's political opponents, as well as his well known and sworn sociopolitical enemies.

by the way, a sucker punch only works well in a duel but not in fights, scuffles and tussles where the presidency's men and his political allies are forewarned, well armed and entrenched in their usual defense formations.

Anonymous said...

There is a good reason why the village sage and local hunters have always cautioned the villagers not to poke a figure at a warthog, because sometimes the warthog will gore them, or they will end up being forced to eat the whole warthog should they be found to be responsible for its demise.

By all accounts, is Odinga and Kalonzo trying to poke a belated and calculated finger at a fattened warthog that has been breed, raised and is still owned by the power brokers, movers and shakers behind JUBILEE's political successes in the course of the last eleven months?

There are people from both political coalitions who are still wondering why Odinga and Kalonzo have not yet accepted the Waterloos they suffered in March of 2013?

And to what extent will the two of them benefit from the impeachment of the president over the rampant insecurity in the country?

Why don't the two of them start a vigorous campaign of thoroughly shaking up all the rotten and barren branches within the police force and other security agencies in the country?

Anonymous said...

Unfortunately or fortunately, Raila Odinga, the son of Oginga Odinga, has always been beaten, taken down and knocked out at his own version of political games.

It's an infamous political record of well known failures that he will always hold among his contemporaries and the public at large, it does not matter whether the elections were rigged in 1997, toshad in 2002, or 'stolen' in 2007 and 2013.

The record of serial political failures or failed attempts of winning a main - royal - spot at the State House, will definitely follow Raila Odinga whenever his name is mentioned, for as long as he lives and if he decides to remain in the mix of the country's high profile political circles.

While on the other hand, Raila Odinga's political opponents have always taken advantage of openings, fault-lines and little cracks within his immediate camp, alliances, coalitions and other political formations.

Was the March general election the end of the road for Raila Odinga the son of Oginga Odinga, a one time political lion of his homeland and in some of the surrounding regions?

Anonymous said...

The People of the lake reject everything EVIL. The Seikh shrine in Kisumu is the starting action.

They will continue until Kenya is liberated from the yoke of Black Kenyan CP and Asian/Chinese/Indian colonialists. Aluta Continua.

Anonymous said...

Excuse the extended digression while speaking of the fictitious prose narratives of authors like James Hadley Chase, among others, whose body of works were loaded with heavy doses of realism given the kind of a pervasive criminal culture that still exists in so many regions of the so-called developed - civilized - world.

There are some thrillers and novels that unfold in measured, deliberate ways, shape and fashion, while others seem to emerge almost by magic with little or what appears to be no obvious plotting on the part of the author.

Believe it or not, spy stories, thrillers and crime novels can often be far more realistic about how politics, economies and societies work in the western hemisphere, Middle East, Asia, as well as in so many banana republics of southern, central, eastern, eastern and west regions of Africa.

Anyhow, digressions aside, here is a list of not so cheap thrillers - LOL - that somehow deserve to be added on the collections of 'good reads' or 'stimulating reads' courtesy of a popular medical thriller author* who was well known by pockets of youngsters around the world;

Cell, Nano, Death Benefit, Cure, Chromosome, Contagion, Coma, Toxin, Foreign Body, Intervention, Invasion, Sphinx, Abduction, Brain, Marker, Mutation, Blindsight, Acceptable Risk, Crisis, Outbreak, Fever, Shock, Critical, Harmful intent, Mindbend, Terminal, Godplayer, Seizure, Year of the Intern, Old School, The Point of Departure, Xeno, Vital Signs, Fatal Cure, Mortal Fear, ADN, Choc, and Remission.

There are those of us who had an opportunity to indulge in them at a time when all of our perceived problems seemed to be far away, and the clouded skies was the limit, so we were told by our concerned village elders.

*May Dr. Robin Cook, RIP and thanks-a-million be to him for all the good reads.

Anonymous said...

Reject the everything EVIL such as;

a) corruption, impunity, mediocrity, a wholesale mentality of accepting or swallowing abysmal and shameful performances from county officials, governors, MPigs, senators, police, civil servants, businessmen/women, teachers, etc.

b) a climate of promoting and rewarding business as usual from the government and private sector.

c) tolerating a dysfunctional culture of never holding the government and ourselves accountable for the high crime rate in our respective neighbourhoods, villages, towns and cities.

d) never ending daily, weekly, monthly and yearly carnage on the roads and so-called two-way and one lane highways.

e) worshipping everything kizungu at the expense of all things local that have served us and country better in many ways.

f) self loathing, treating outsiders, expatriates, tourists, hordes of $345 backpacking tourists, religious tourists, aid workers-cum-tourists, fly-by-night economic experts, et al, with 400% respect while dishing 10% of the same to our very own people.

g) political tribal elitism and deep seated little-European mentality among the ...

h) prostituting the nation and its resources to the highest bidders.

i) 300% importation of substandard goods, counterfeit medicines, clothing, vehicle spare parts, defective vehicles, malfunctioning electric gadgets and medical equipment, processed food products that are unfit for human consumption, overly priced second-hand military and police gear and equipment,

j) you name it, etc.

Anonymous said...

Questions about Raila Odinga's overall place in the pantheon of political greats in Africa will continue to linger and be contested for variety of reasons, because those concerned in one way or another are of the view that it will be hard for Odinga to qualify and be ranked among liberation icons like Joseph Garang, Joshua Nkomo, Oliver Tambo, Rashid Kawawa, Benedicto Kiwanuka, Odumegwu Ojukuu, Walter Sisulu, Obafemu Awolowo, Oliver Tambo, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, et al. Who knows, history may prove otherwise when he ends up being seen in a totally different light.

Anonymous said...

Chris,

Will the sucker punch be a real game changer or a final end game for CORD and its main man? And why use a sucker punch when a bull can be taken by the horns or held at bay by the tail at any time of the day?

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