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Saturday, August 31, 2013

Will Isaac Ruto be roasted with the nyama choma in Naivasha today?


Excerpts from the latest Raw notes...

As you read this the top decision-making organ (The National Executive Council) of the United Republican Party (URP) is in session at a retreat in Naivasha. Officially the agenda is strengthening the institutional capacity of the party. The truth is that they are meeting to deal with the "Isaac Ruto problem" once and for all.

It is no accident that Isaac met with the President's political advisor,
Joshua Kuttuny ahead of this meeting. What Kuttuny told Isaac is still a mystery but what is clear is that whatever it was it shook up poor Isaac quite a bit. By the time I sat down to write this Isaac had also not yet been sighted at the Naivasha retreat although insiders still insisted that he was expected.

Also interesting about this Naivasha meeting is the fact that it is not the party chairman Francis Ole Kaparo who will chair the NEC meeting but the Deputy President William Ruto himself who was expected to fly in from Mombasa where he has been with the president scoring massive points at the Coast dishing out 60,000 title deeds.

My information is that water tight resolutions will be set to deal with any would-be lone rangers within the party who may want to have a different position from that of the party on any issue now or in the future. And even if Isaac Ruto were to turn up you can be sure that he will not be holding his hat in his hand and looking repentant over the grief he has caused Bwana Kubwa DP William Ruto and the larger JUBILEE family which URP belongs to. And that is what is so exciting about what is going on in Naivasha and the possible drama that could ensue. But still whatever drama Kenyans are treated to will have zero impact where it really matters. I will tell you why in a minute.

These kinds of meetings are not for delivering directives but for discussion and brain storming to solve problems. The relaxed ambiance is supposed to help participants remain level headed and sober and thus much more likely to find some middle ground somewhere. Only that there is no middle ground in this referendum issue. Isaac has always said that he wants the allocations to counties to be legalized and is not interested even in 90% allocation if it is not written down in the laws because it can always be taken away later by somebody on a whim. Makes plenty of sense. Now the JUBILEE position is that this will be done in due course in parliament and there is no need for a referendum.

But what has irked William Ruto and others in JUBILEE is that Isaac's position is way too similar to that of CORD and everybody knows that the only reason CORD are so concerned about taking the country into a referendum is to fight the JUBILEE government.

History as they say always repeats itself and if my dad was alive he would almost certainly be talking about a similar happening in the run up to independence in the late 50s and early 60s when Jaramogo Oginga Odinga already well beaten and outsmarted by Tom Mboya suddenly woke up one morning and said that Kenyans were NOT interested in independence unless and until Jomo Kenyatta was released. Many asked; Jomo who?? An old blurbing compromising man who had been jailed on trumped charges and mostly forgotten was the stature of Jomo at the time. But sly Odinga senior knew that with Jomo on the scene, there was no way Mboya's largely Kikuyu political base would overlook their own for Mboya when it came to electing Kenya's first Prime Minister. That political strategy worked like a charm and changed the destiny of Kenya.

In much the same way.....(read the rest in my latest raw notes published a few minutes ago)

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