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Monday, March 25, 2013

Uhuru Kenyatta's Suspect Advisers

Deputy president elect Ruto has Uhuru's ear but for how long?

Since the beginning of time it has always been recognized that a king is as good as his advisers and wise men who surround him to give shrewd counsel.

On the surface of things President elect Uhuru Kenyatta has much better advisers than outgoing president Mwai Kibaki. However those who know the identity of most of these guys in the shadows would find such a statement odd and untruthful because many of them are exactly the same people who have been on Kibaki’s team (more on that later).

Of special interest are those individuals within the team who are able to predict the future with such uncanny accuracy. You cannot afford to ignore what these “geniuses” are saying because they have always been right thus far. They even predicted Uhuru’s victory in the first round before the voter registration was complete. I of course reveal the identity of these folks in my latest rawnotes and exactly what they are saying this time round.

But even without the benefit of this information the actions of the president elect speak volumes. Some of his rather subtle moves clearly define the future direction of Kenyan politics. (My next post will probably dwell on this subject).

Back to the question of why the president elect seems to have better advisers. Kibaki insiders have noted numerous instances where their spot on advise has been ignored only for I-told-you-so disaster to follow soon after. It is no secret that President Kibaki unlike his predecessor, Moi has always been known to arrogantly brush aside counsel citing his long years of experience in the corridors of power. But times have changed and the old are always the slowest to change with them. That coupled with the Kibaki’s legendary procrastination and fence seating is what makes Uhuru look so good and on top of his game now. Incidentally in sharp contrast Moi would listen to everything and then make his decisions. Another huge advantage Kenya’s second president had was his ability to think quickly on his feet and make swift often unexpected decisions that his detractors labeled roadside declarations. However the interesting thing here is that they were always spot on.

But back to Uhuru and the present. Most analysts just can’t take their eyes off one particular advisor who has made a dramatic come back to the corridors of power. He’s the same age as Uhuru but was Kibaki’s closest confidante at the beginning of his presidency until a scandal and power politics shoved him aside and into oblivion. (You can read all the juicy details about this rather colourful character in my latest raw notes.) What is a major cause of concern is the fact that this individual was right at the centre of the infamous Anglo leasing saga a black mark on the Kibaki presidency that just won’t go away.

This post would be incomplete without special mention of the most influential man closest to the president elect, at least for now. That is William Samoei Ruto the deputy president. No single individual has played a bigger role in getting Uhuru where he is today against seemingly insurmountable odds. It was Ruto who prevailed on Uhuru to ignore the instructions of the “dark forces” who wanted him to step down in favour of Musalia Mudavadi as the presidential candidate for the Jubilee alliance. With this in mind it is extremely instructive to keen observers that it was the same Ruto who strongly resisted the post election alliance deal with Amani (now signed and sealed). The fact that he was over-ruled seems to suggest that it is only a matter of time before Ruto loses his influence with Uhuru. If this happens it will be nothing new because his father Jomo Kenyatta was in exactly the same position in 1963 where he greatly trusted and valued the counsel of his then Vice President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga. They went everywhere together just as Uhuru and Ruto are doing currently. Admittedly the huge difference this time round is that Uhuru has no power to dismiss his deputy, whatever happens. But then you do not need to dismiss your deputy to make them irrelevant do you?

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