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Friday, October 14, 2011

Could This Crazy Story Be True?

As most of you already know, this blogger relies a lot on tips and information given in confidence to stay ahead in this game. I classify my informants into two general categories going by the track record of the reliability of their information. These categories are “reliable” and “unreliable.” And even then I try my best never to publish any information until I have verified it from at least two independent sources. It is always very difficult to verify some of the crazy tips I receive and most of it is impossible to check out.
When I cannot confirm the accuracy of a tip I will usually just file it away for future reference.

I always get amazed at how tips re-emerge many months later and turn out to be pretty accurate, even when they have come from very unreliable and untested sources.

I will never forget the most ridiculous tip I have ever received for the Kumekucha blog. It came a few months before the disputed 2007 presidential elections and it came from a source that was usually very unreliable. I was told that President Kibaki would steal the presidential elections and would win by a very thin margin of about 200,000 votes or less. That was ridiculous, I said to myself. Surely whoever crafted such a plan would see the blood bath that would result if anybody were to try out something so recklessly stupid. President Kibaki was many things but surely he would never sanction something as crazy as that, I told myself.

Still the warning bells went off in my head and I decided to sound off the tip with somebody who knew the president very well. Their reaction shocked me.

“It is very possible. He has done it before.” They went on to refer me to a little know story I had never heard of, about a parliamentary election in Nairobi in 1969 where Kibaki lost to a woman.

The second person I called gave me the right reaction I was looking for. They laughed. “You have to be careful about these sources of yours, that tip is more appropriate for comedy.” When we hang up, the person was still laughing. “You’ve made my day with that crazy story of yours,” they said.

Today I want to share a very crazy tip with you guys.

Months ago. When the Kenya shilling was still very firm against the US dollar somebody whispered something crazy into my ear. I shall call my informant the mathematician. Our conversation went something like this.

Mathematician:- Get out your calculator I have a story that is too hot even for Kumekucha.
KK;- Really?
Mathematician:- Imagine a situation whereby you wanted to raise a lot of money for an election campaign and you were in a position to manipulate the exchange rate. What would you do?
KK;- Am not sure, you tell me.
Mathematician:- The simplest way would be to accumulate all the dollars I would get my hands on, beg borrow and even steal. Cause the shilling to dramatically depreciate, cash in and then after a few months of crazy profits proceed to cause the shilling to recover. Mission accomplished. Check out that story.

To be very honest, I found this the most ridiculous story I had ever heard. Everybody knows that even the government can not really manipulate the exchange rate. And so I made only one call. When I am looking for information I never make the classic Kenyan journalist mistake of wanting to look intelligent. I play dumb and it works very well. And so the guy on the other end started giving me a long lecture on monetary policy at the end of which I was almost sound asleep. I was barely conscious enough to say my thanks and hang up. End of story.

But last night I started looking carefully at the chain of events that have taken place since the shilling went on a free fall. I paid special attention to the reaction of the government and especially the carefully choreographed events of the past week or so where Central Bank has thrown the ball to the Finance Minister who has promptly acted. Now as far as I know these are guys who should have been talking to each other behind the scenes since they came into office. Indeed there are those who believe that these conversations are carried out in the common mother tongue all these guys share so as to eliminate the possibility of any misunderstandings about the monetary policy going forward (but that is a story for another day.)

At the end of my careful analysis, I remembered that ridiculous tip I received months ago from the Mathematician.

And so when somebody called me to ask me what was happening about a new post, I decided to share with you good people, about what I am following up currently.

Will keep you posted on this ridiculous and very possibly false tip that has stubbornly refused to stay filed away with the other “absurd” tips.


Anonymous said...

Chris has finally recovered from the shock of having his blog shut down with this funny post.

Welcome back hun, usijali ni hali ya maisha


Anonymous said...

Welcome back Chris, we missed you.

Anonymous said...

This information is in the public dormain.The depreciation of the shilling has occurred during the time the ocampo 5 are attending confirmation hearings.These guys are hoarding dollars 1) to raise money to pay for the high cost legal fees from the who is who in their defence.2)raise funds for the elections next year.
From yesterday's meeting and the behaviour of the governor for the last one month,even a fool withj basic economics can tell.Take this to the bank as I'm talking as an insider but hate it because it has affected my pocket negatively

M. Pesa said...

We are being told we import too much stuff using dollars, even commodities we should NOT be importing like sugar and maize. What we export is a drop compared to what we import, highly imbalanced and thus highly dangerous for a fragile economy like ours.

We are constantly chasing the dollars for these imports. Then we have some very greedy banks who act like cartels, always hoarding the dollars for speculative measures to make a killing.

When everyone else is stagnant or making loses at the end of the financial year, our banks always announce massive profits in billions, thanks to their unchecked greed.

We need also to look at other sources of energy like solar, geothermal and wind not relying on KPLC and their fuel guzzling generators. That fuel is also imported in tonnes using dollars.

If you check your electricity bill carefully, nearly half of the amount you pay goes to fuel levied by Kenya Power to cover their costs for fuel used. It's time we harnessed solar and wind power.

Another reason is that South Sudan and Somali are finally stabilizing and don't need to keep or pass their dollars in Kenya.

I'm not an economist but that's basically my two cents worth, perhaps Mwarangethe will give us more lessons in this area bearing in mind he has masters in economics and law from two very prestigious universities.

Anonymous said...

Rigged/stolen 2012 elections

A strong cash machine is already in place through this shilling thing

Factor in the tampering of bills at the Government Printer (To lock Raila out after being rigged?) and the way NSIS is tampering with the bill to maintain status quo.

Coffee Anan has already seen and spoke of the games being played at the selection of Election Commission staff.

we are in for a very rough time next year if things proceed the way they are moving.
Reasons to be very worried indeed

Anonymous said...

Tribalism, nepotism and bad governance is the evil in Kenya.

Never should the Central Bank, the Finance Ministry be under one tribe especially when campains are nearing.

This story is true.

Anonymous said...

Tribalism, nepotism and bad governance is the evil in Kenya.

Never should the Central Bank, the Finance Ministry be under one tribe especially when campains are nearing.

This story is true.

Anonymous said...

Tribalism, nepotism and bad governance is the evil in Kenya.

Never should the Central Bank, the Finance Ministry be under one tribe especially when campains are nearing.

This story is true.

Anonymous said...

Kenya hakoyenyewe! West Kenya, Eastern, NEP, Coast, Nyanza should stand up and send thugs away from parliament, ministries and national institutions. These people want to keep own stealing and raping Kenyans. No more.

Anonymous said...

ROFLMAO!!!!@ "Mwarangethe will give us more LESSONS in this area bearing in mind he has MASTERS in eCONomics and LAW from two very PRESTIGIOUS UNIVERSITIES!!! Huh.....

Anonymous said...

Wacheni your pedestrian economics. Leave it to Prof MWARANG'ETHE with his real GOLD stuff. The floor is open, LOL.

Anonymous said...

Mwarangehte, told us long time ago, about an attack of our currency, well i dont think you need a tip about this , coz its really 1+1=2...the shilling will even depreciate further when thanks to the inflation and the budget deficit.....Chris instead you topic should and ought to be what are the main reasons behind a currency depreciation and how can we protect ourselves...isnt in all about money and land ama? Chris over to you? And for the 2007 election, it was all over the news and u even put an article about it, what does the intelligence know that we dont, tabloids like envoys calls for peaceful elections...seems everyone knew. About the 2007, how come Kibaki wasnt ousted like Gbagbo was? yet rigging was done as u have always implicated, now try understand the forces and factors behind it, without relying on ur "sources", be analytical Chris. when u understand this forces and factors and how the e-conomy works, u will even predict the outcomes better and clearer than relying ur predictions on secondhand information from this and that...then u will be ur own man....anyway seems some people here have matured enormously like M-pesa , Phil among others.

Mwarang'ethe said...

Months ago. When the Kenya shilling was still very firm against the US dollar somebody whispered something crazy into my ear. I shall call my informant the mathematician. Our conversation went something like this.


Ati months ago?

Yaani, Chris, you do not read your own blog? Or, you believe in so called insider information which is USELESS information?

We warned about this on 12th April, 2010. All that you can read here in your own blog:


We understand at that time, April, 2010, and even before, you, like the rest of the Kenyans, were busy telling us about the new Kenya on the horizon. Read, a mirage.

The question is, apart from creating jobs for sons of billionaires like Nyachae, and nice pensions for Wako's and Gicheru's, what else do we have?

Oh, poor Kenyans!

The deal is this. Our economic structure is shambolic. However, if you ask U. Kenyatta, he will tell you there is nothing wrong with our economy. This, he said yesterday. And, since it is all fine, he has summoned the IMF jackals.

NB: The question is, if IMF says your STUPID DEVOLUTION, your CDF's and such must be scrapped since it is too expensive, what are you going to do?

Or, if they say, we must sell Mombasa port before we get the $$$, what are you going to do?

That being the case, those who wish to make money can SHORT our currency and walk home with billions. Yes, we can blame the speculators, but, we need to tackle the REAL CAUSE.

This REAL CAUSE, was supposed to be the main issue in our constitution debates.

Alas! It was about more MP's, senators, commissioners, WOMEN SEATS, welfare, STUPID DEVOLUTION and such FOOLISH, DELUSIONAL and CHILDISH FANTASIES.

NB: We are observing more DELUSIONS, ILLUSIONS and CHILDISH FANTASIES in the Occupy Wall Street and such other demonstrations.

Anyway, since no one listens to well informed analysis, we leave to enjoy Eric Donaldson:

Anonymous said...

'Stealing' election in 2007 was necessary!! Thank God the results stood despite frantic madness from raila's sychopaths.

Anonymous said...

There is simply no blog like Kumekucha and no blogger like Kumekucha Chris. This is what I was missing when this site went down.

You never notice stuff until the well runs dry I guess.

Kudos Chris, keep it up.

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