For those who don’t know the intricacies of how rigging is usually done, I think it would be right to start with a brief appreciation of certain key points.
- Vote rigging works best when the results are close. That is one of the reasons why Mwai Kibaki’s rigging in December 2007 ended up being so disastrous. The truth is that Raila Odinga had a massive lead. In sharp contrast Moi never got caught because the results were always much closer. He did a good job of dividing the opposition at all costs.
Prof George Saitoti has perfected the art of rigging in his constituency.
- It is impossible to carry out a rigging exercise without the help of the intelligence service. Why? Because you need very precise and up to date figures to execute a vote rigging operation efficiently. The way it works is that as people are voting you are feverishly collecting figures. In the old days the votes used to be stuffed as the ballot boxes are being transported to one central place in the constituency for counting. These days it is much more expensive because the votes have to be stuffed in each individual polling station. The Kibaki guys went round that by simply ensuring that the vote count that arrives at the ECK was different from what was on the ground. Clean ups were then organized later in the individual constituencies. It is a massive and extremely expensive exercise these days.
- This national model for the country is often executed at a single constituency where the powerful MP uses his own people. One George Saitoti has perfected this system in his constituency.
Folks I am afraid that I have more bad news for you concerning the new constitution most of us are yearning for. Let me start by confessing that for a person with my years of experience I was rather naïve to believe that those who own Kenya would ever allow for an electoral system that they did not have any control over. The truth is that the so caled "tamper-proof" electoral roll has already been tampered with and non-existent voters introduced. And since it is NOT the same electoral roll that we will go to the general elections with, the only conclusion is that the intention is to rig the August 4th Referendum.
The game plan by the powerful owners of Kenya is for the NO camp to catch up with the YES majority so that the difference is around 20% or less. What will then happen is that NO will win with a very slim majority. Enough to deny most Kenyans what they are yearning for so much that they can no longer sleep too well. Those who have read the document and realize the sweeping changes it will bring into the country and the deadly blow it will deal to impunity.
What really scares me is that so far these powerful forces have been able to get things done through the NSIS and have even influenced the judiciary to make certain bizarre rulings. To me that is evidence enough that they are quite capable of going ahead with their well laid plan even as the president tires himself criss-crossing the country campaigning for a new constitution.
There is ONLY one way to stop them. And that is to ensure a landslide victory for YES. Anything less will be dicey.