Sunday, February 01, 2009
Prepare For Trouble
Uhuru Kenyatta: Want to guess the most popular number on his cell phone just now?
There is a time for peace and there is a time for war. Since the beginning of time nothing has changed about seasons of trouble and seasons for good, a time for war and a time for peace. As the good books says, there is nothing new under the sun. NOTHING!
The dark clouds gathering over Kenya right now, coupled with ominous signs of careless deaths of too many citizens have been sending violent chills up my spine over the last day or two.
Folks, prepare for trouble. Big trouble. Keep extra stocks of food in your house, have a good exit strategy if you live in Nairobi. Or other hot spots of Kenya. At least start thinking about it. I have a feeling that up market suburbs are not going to be very safe this time round (but I could be wrong.)
I can hear you sigh and wonder what has come over Kumekucha again. And maybe that is where I should begin. The trouble with most of you reading this post is exactly the same with that of the key players around whom the events of the coming days will revolve around. You see most of you wonderful readers of this blog without whom Kumekucha would NOT be what it is today, belong to the age group I call the generation of the decision makers of Kenya. Shall we say the younger people of this country? You are the people who are about to decide the fate of our beloved mother-land. But the problem is that you do not quite understand a number of key things that have to do with your country. And I say that with great humility. It is partly your fault and partly not your fault. It is not your fault because you have been brought up during the Nyayo error and a lot of that KANU propaganda has sunk deep into your bone marrow. Yes error and NOT era. But it is also your fault because studying history to you is sooooooooo boring.
Kumekucha titbits: Has your laptop crashed with vital information inside the hard drive? Laptop recovery Kenya will help you recover all your data.
Let me give you one example of what I mean. Many of you are convinced that Kenyans can never abandon voting along tribal lines. This is the same thinking firmly held by Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto (keep your eyes carefully focused on these two gentlemen over the next few weeks. You will know why I am saying that by the time you get to the end of this post.) That is exactly why Uhuru made his biggest political mistake (one that has obliterated his career as a national politician) in the run up to the 2007 general elections. Had Uhuru stayed put in ODM, he would have most certainly lost his parliamentary seat. But he would have made a point that would have now put him in poll position to be the next president of Kenya. And most probably he would not have been waiting for an unsolicited date with the Hague. But alas, he will now never be able to shake off the tribal tag. Not in 100 years, not in 1000 years.
You see what the generation of decision-makers in Kenya does not realize is the fact that tribal voting can vanish overnight if the electorate are given a good enough reason to abandon it. As it is now, they already have 80% of the reasons (thanks to the grand coalition robbery government) and all a smart politician needs to do is ONLY 20% work. Did you know that Kenyans living in Nairobi in 1957 voted in a young Luo and ignored their own Kikuyu candidate? In that year Munyua Waiyaki lost badly to Tom Mboya in constituency where 90% of the voters were Kikuyu. So if it happened then, why can it not happen in 2009 or 2010? (that's right we will have a General Election long before 2012). And it happen again in 2002 when Mwai Kibaki received a landslide victory securing a very high number of votes from all over the country. Although that was courtesy of having an all-Kikuyu race for the presidency, at least as far as the big two were concerned.
Kumekucha titbits: After your long flight into Kenya, do you want to seat in a traffic jam for hours as you try to get into chaotic Nairobi? Or would you prefer a budget hotel in the outskirts of Nairobi?
If President Obama could get elected in country where racism is much more serious than tribalism is in Kenya, then you need to think again. And don't tell me the US electorate is much more "aware" than the Kenyan electorate because a mob is a mob and for your information I can take you to parts of America where they have no idea who the former president or the current president of that country is.
Who has Ruto been talking to too much in private since the events in parliament last week? What name and cell phone number would you be looking for if you had access to his phone now? Let me make a calculated guess. It has to be a certain young politician from Gatundu who still has a serious problem with alcohol but has gotten away with plenty because of his famous last name. That's right. Uhuru Kenyatta. On the opposite corner of the ring, ladies and gentlemen, is Martha "Iron lady" Karua, George "coughing VW" Saitoti and that old man who has refused to go home and rest. You guessed right, retired president Daniel arap Moi. These guys are doing all they can to ensure that Ruto, Uhuru and company end up at the Hague. Of course Martha and George will part amicably the minute their objective is achieved. I think it is becoming increasingly clear that they might just win this fight, although they started as under dogs and most Kumekucha readers still view them as such. Remember that to pass a constitutional amendment bill in parliament, like the one required to establish a local tribunal, a simple majority will not do. You need an overwhelming number of "AYES" in the house. Do you see that happening now?
As I end my post today, let me say where I see the trouble coming from. As Uhuru and Ruto strategize to avoid the Hague, one option will look increasingly attractive to them. That of bringing down the house of cards called the grand coalition robbery government. Kibaki cannot seek re-election and Raila Odinga (whatever the Steadmann poll seems to be saying) is finished as a serious national contender for the presidency. That makes a coup much easier for Ruto and Uhuru, so they think. And of course if Ruto emerges in the next government, the worst that can happen to him over the maize manenos is for a commission of enquiry to be formed to investigate the matter.
Now the problem is that things are a little too dodgy at the moment for there to be no government in Kenya, even for 5 seconds. And that is where I see trouble, as much as we all want an end to this coalition robbery soonest. Secondly desperate people do desperate things and right now Uhuru and Ruto are desperate. Who wouldn't be thinking of the prospect of exchanging their palaces for a prison cell?
My thinking is that Kenya is about to give birth to a new republic but before the bundle of joy arrives, the birth pangs will be terribly painful. Mercifully it should be short. I have been right many times but I have also been wrong a number of times. Lets hear what the rest of you guys (some of you much cleverer than myself) think.
See also: Other bloggers agree that there is trouble ahead.
Posted by Chris at 1:23 AM