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Sunday, January 18, 2009

Will The Grand Coalition Government Collapse In This Unthinkable Way?

Most political analysts are in firm agreement that the days of our grand coalition government are numbered. But a commentator in this blog asked a question yesterday; how exactly will this undesirable animal be put to sleep? In this post we will look at a crazy scenario that is being floated based on unfolding insider information.

Before I do so let me bring something of great interest (albeit boring to most) to your attention. This past week I have talked to a considerable number of people doing business in Kenya. Ranging from the big boys with factories in industrial area and executive offices in leafy suburbs like Westlands to small time entrepreneurs surviving on a hand to mouth basis. All of them told me the same thing. That the politics in Kenya has already started affecting business. Investors are very worried and are holding off and postponing the release of funds for various expansion programmes already approved. Many firms are still cutting down dramatically on their staff seeking to be lean and mean in preparation for the hard times that everybody is anticipating. The net result is that many businesses are having a hard time just now. One executive told me that already many businesses are going through serious cash flow problems. Of great concern to the business community is the future of the grand coalition government and the feeding frenzy (scandals popping up all over the place faster than hot popcorns) going on in the bloated government at the moment.

Now before you start getting discouraged and thinking of shelving your plans for this new year or even relocating away from Kenya, let me make a simple statement of fact. America created the highest number of self-made millionaires in history NOT during boom times but during the great depression. Trouble also means huge opportunities for the brave and those who can dare think out of the box. Enough on business, lets plunge back into siasa.

Something really fascinating happened this past week. Legislator Johnstone “I will pay taxes on my MPs allowances” Muthama called a press conference and proceeded to accuse Prime Minister Raila Odinga of grand corruption that has led to the current Maize crisis in the country. Obviously Muthama was a messenger who was sent by somebody to deliver a message that seems to be part of a certain strategy. One man who was backing Muthama in the background was of course Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka who is desperately trying to re-position himself ahead of 2012. So bad are things for the VP that he is not even thinking of the presidency currently all he wants desperately for now is to remain relevant in the very fluid political goings-on within PNU over the Kibaki succession.

Insiders have suggested something pretty crazy and you will need to sit down to absorb this. Muthama’s move against the PM with the backing of Kalonzo and the President’s political strategists is part of a wider scheme by PNU to bring down the grand coalition government by withdrawing from the arrangement on the grounds that their ODM partner is way too corrupt. Now everybody has been talking about ODM walking out of the coalition so this one caught me completely by surprise. But my immediate question is what would PNU have to gain from walking away?

For starters regular readers of this blog already know that new alliances are rapidly being crafted (mostly at night) and the whole idea is to get the Kalenjin community out of ODM. Former president Moi has been burning the midnight oil on this one (instead of enjoying his retirement and twilight years) and it seems that there is now finally some light at the end of tunnel for the old tired man who used to be called the professor of politics. Although there is no way he can take credit for the breakthrough. Actually all credit must be claimed but that fearsome animal called The Hague. Everybody knows that William Ruto is on the Waki list and naturally the man will do anything to avoid dire consequences for his alleged role in the post election troubles. Impeccable sources have told this blogger that Ruto is talking to Emilio Stanley, Uhuru Kenyatta and Kiraitu Murungi about a new grand alliance between the Mount Kenya axis and the Kalenjin, isolating the Prime Minister and the Luo community.

So now you have the picture. PNU withdraw out of the coalition citing the excessive corruption within it’s ODM partner. When the dust settles a new coalition government is formed that does not include ODM. That seems to be roughly the plan on the drawing boards.

If truth be told a quick count of scandals so far shows that ODM is leading PNU in this area.

Oh boy, what a country!!!

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27 comments:

Anonymous said...

WOW!!!!!

This is why I read Kumekucha without fail.

Anonymous said...

Now,now where did this belief that political scheming and forming alliances is the sole preserve of RAO molasses come from?Picture this Ngilu joins molasses side and praises are heaped on her as being brave.Kalonzo does the opposite and supports Kibaki,his decision raises a lot of scorn and bitterness from miffed RAO supporters.The same scenario above repeats itself when erstwhile Kanu leaders Uhuru and Ruto take opposite sides,one is praised the other villified.Who said only one group has the right to strategise and not the other?This line of thinking is very much evident right here at KK where perceived corruption from PNU is thoroughly castigated(remember Kimunya?) and when much worse comes from ODM (Ruto,maize scandal & starving Kenyans) it becomes oh,this is nothing new we always knew Ruto was corrupt anyway.Come on guys be realistic and give the devil his dues no matter what colours he adorns!

Mama said...

Chris,

Are you being serious for pete's sake? Kiuks and Kalees together after the 2008 Jan and Feb slaughter? Honestly, this world has wonders!

This Hague business is all rubbish then if all the perpetrators will forgive each other and side together for the sake of splitting the coalition. Ah! What do I care? Let ODM stew in their own juice.

Mai ma Nguku said...

Chris, I love you but i hate you at the same time. You have been praising a lame duck Prime Minister responsible for causing so much havoc to our country (now the business people are feeling the pinch) including anglo-maizing scandal that has left your people in Ukambani in the mercies of starvation. You better hope your ancestors will forgive for this.

Vikii said...

Very sensational take as usual.

First of all I do not understand why you guys always rush to defend Raila Odinga everytime his name crops up as a corruption suspect. One does not have to be a genius to see the spin you are attaching to the Muthama story. Johnstone is an ELECTED Member of Parliament who does nt need to take insructions from Kalonzo. He is a leader in his own right and what he raised were legitimate questions that every Kenyan who is true about fighting corruption should want answered. Don't you guys find it dumb that some of you want Raila insured from every form of criticism? If another member of Parliament came out and named another party leader, we would be crucifying them and demanding they resign their positions. When it comes to Raila, you decide to depict him as nothing but a victim of malice and political hard-tackling. He should be held accountable like everybody else. This fallacy of him depicting himself as "askofu mkuu" of integrity when facts say otherwise has to stop.

Look here, when NARC formed government, Paul Ndung'u was tasked with investigating cases of land grabbing and recommending suspects for prosecution. Of course nobody was ever prosecuted as expected. But the important thing is that Raila Odinga's name came up alongside those of other corruption sharks Gumo, Ruto,kenyatta family, Nyenze, Moi and others. Now the irony is that when Raila was campaigning to be President, he promised to implement the Ndung'u report. He is now a senior government official and since he promised his supporters and Kenyans in general to act on this report, should he not step aside and take himself to court? I mean, are these not double standards? Should we be fighting corruption selectively? The apologists will rush to depict him as a victim of political conspiracy. But wait, nobody is fooled. Kumekucha's Chris himself, a clear staunch supporter of his, claimed in this blog in 2007 that his "impeccable sources" had told him that Raila entered into a transaction with Daniel Moi that involved exchange of cooperation in frustrating efforts to unravel the Ouko mystery with the molasses fraud and a ministerial appointment. Was it Kalonzo sending stooges to taint his name at that time? These are questions he will never be able to run away from. It doesn't matter how we want to spin these clear cases of impropriety, but clearing his name will take much more than that.

About the break up of the coalition, why can't we focus on reforms? I do not see why any of the "coalition partners" would want an end to the arrangement without a new constitution and a reformed electoral commission in place. How would they benefit? Let us craft a new electoral body and write a decent constitution this year, and then go for elections early next year. Whoever wins that election shoud do so with the kind of mandate that is unquestionable. They should then proceed to form a government that is focussed on on sound governance.

"...a grand alliance between the Mount Kenya axis and the Kalenjin, isolating the Prime Minister and his Luo community."
Well, is that supposed to be a bad thing? Are you not admitting that he was nothing but a product of ethnic cobbling? You know, just bringing a group of communities together and presenting them with an object of demonisation as the binding glue? And if he was/is, is it not a fact of life that those who live by the sword should die by the same? It's politics, brother, it's politics.

As for me, I would prefer that Ruto himself runs for President without getting into an alliance with anybody. The spectacle of Ruto's and Saitoti's bids will be fun to watch. And those two will have a direct bearing on who becomes President.

joe the choma man said...

"Chriso",
The coalition partners would be fools to allow it to collapse, there is too much at stake here and our country has already lost so much we won't gain anything new if this was to happen.

rome wasn't built or destroyed in a day, one year on the whole nation is still struggling to survive the fallout from the botched elections,shouldn't we be twice shy by now?

i know the whole world has gone USA crazy, but forget about fearing fear itself,i say be very afraid for the consequences of a "repeat performance" will be outlast more than 2 or 3 generations to come, i mean...

why would anyone in their right mind(emphasis) not want to make this coalition work and finish "agenda 4 from the Annan Peace Accord/treaty?"we should stop this stupidity we have developed as a political system of always being in permanent election mode-last i heard it was Kazi iendelee...heck i'm happy with either that or kazi ianzee....let those misfits work and take this nation forward quickly

PS: -"Viko" aka Vikii
i wonder what "object of demonisation" Dr.Raila presented to the group of communities you say he brought together as binding by glue? did Dr.Raila create this object or was it already there all along for him to use?just curious you know because the "ethnic cobbling" you refer to is not unique to Dr.Raila's brand of politics but boy isn't it easier to vilify a person that notices a problem than it is to accuse and hang root causers of the same? its all in a day's work ama?

Anonymous said...

Predictably PNU/RAILA haters led by mama, mavi ya kuku and vikii are already spitting venom and thanking chris for this post.
To all you haters, Raila has always been a gema target. weren't we all bored of Laila this Laila that....huyu Laila...at every funeral and gathering, just because poor Raila dared point out the ills that were going on in the then kibaki administration.
Muthama and his master Kalonzo tried to pin Raila to the maize scanadl eti because he frustrated the opening of a second bulk grain handling facility,,eish! how is that connected to the scandal and the current maize shortage? BTW mwakwere himself, another mkm errand boy came out in support of raila, I hope kalonzo(muthama)leave the egg on their faces as a badge of honor.
Raila himself said he is incorruptible. The kikuyu mafia tried pinning him down and failed miserably. Who is kalonzo to succeed?

Vikii said...

Oh, come on and stop looking the other side. The object of attack was the Kikuyu community. You know that, my dear friend. Everybody does. Just present the poor folks as the "root cause" of everybody's problems.

Does anybody consider this brand of politics the kind associated with nationalists? statesmen? Well, it's called mediocre politics and it's exactly what Chris is whinning about when he talks of plans to "isolate the Luo community". But it cannot be all smooth sailing. It's a double edged sword this kind of deceit.

Mai ma Nguku said...

...and who is raila, Obama's 'Ka-chini'?

joe the choma man said...

Vikii,
i assure you looking the other side i'm not-but answer me this...
we have alcoholic annonymous groups...the object of their demonisation is alcohol...
we have weight watcher....the object of their demonisation is body fat...
none of these groups created either alcohol or fat
they saw there was a problem and they are brought together as one in a group to fight said vices...

now why in the world would anyone want to accuse the "group leader" of manufacturing "the vice" being fought? even if they make money off of it...?

Raila did not create the kikuyu community as an object of attack-so is it his rallying others of like mind that you are against?

my brother, take away the "root cause" and Kenya has had very very few if indeed any "nationalist statesmen/women" politicians to speak about...

its the ones that point out the ills and propose to rectify them that we stone to death....

Raila is no saint....but who in Kenya today is? and who is daring to tackle tribalism monster like him? he didn't invent this monster please don't crucify him unjustly

Vikii said...

Oh boy, so in your head the Kikuyu community is on the same footing as "ills", 'vices', 'body fat'? In other words, is a flat-out war against the Kikuyu justifiable?

Well, I get your point. Lots of sense over there. Now let's address what Chris has raised in his post.

Anonymous said...

The bad seed is all over us Kenyans.
Look at this before you continue being angry with Kenyans at Home.
Where is the Airline?
More information is that this guru is being investigated by the Home Office.There is a great case coming up after she conned some American tycoon, through a daughter. More details to follow from Reading in UK.
You cant fool everybody all the time.
From UK loaded with wads of notes to invest

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By Samwel KumbaPosted Friday, September 5 2008 at 20:23

It is Sunday afternoon and everything seems slow in Nairobi despite the increased human traffic ahead of the reopening of schools the following day.

I have just stepped into the Hilton Hotel lobby for a meeting when an animated exchange between the staff and a female guest catches my attention.

It later emerges that she is trying to trace her luggage after checking into the hotel from South Africa.

Moments later, my host introduces me to the woman whom, I learn, has stopped over in Nairobi en route to London where she lives.

And not only that: Mrs Mabel Muruli Marks is here for a big mission — one which may make her one the hottest business people in town. She plans to, in three months, start an airline in Kenya.

She was in Nairobi this week to do what she has perfected in London – initiating and developing businesses to multi-million-shilling entities.

She is already in the millionaires club, thanks to her London real estate business, which she started in 2001.

Mabel is one of the few Kenyan businesswomen who can say with certainty that they are successful and satisfied.

She intends to use her Mabel Air company to open up Kenya for investment and economic growth in not only the major towns, but also the rural areas.

“We are interested to serve even those with the smallest degree of prosperity and provide opportunities not yet envisioned,” she told the Saturday Nation in an interview after the chance meeting.

Mabel Air is already licensed by the industry regulator, the Kenya Civil Aviation Authority. KCAA spokesman Mutia Mwandikwa says the licence was issued on July 23, this year.

This is further confirmed by the Kenya Gazette notice of August 8, which shows that the airline is licensed to fly passengers and cargo within, out of and into Kenya from East Africa using aircraft C208, DHC8 based at Wilson, Jomo Kenyatta International and Kisumu airports.

It is allowed also to operate non-scheduled passenger flights using helicopter Bell 427 based at the airports, besides scheduled domestic flights on various routes.

Mabel says she is pumping more than £10 million (Sh1.25 billion) into the project, most of the capital having come from her UK investments.

She was born in Kakamega, and her maiden name is Lusanji Muruli. Today, her Kimberley Group firm has properties in the UK and the US valued at more than Sh2 billion.

She was from South Africa where she was voted the best inventor and innovator at a symposium held on August 27-29 and inaugurated by President Thabo Mbeki at the time of our meeting.

More than 3,000 women from all over the world attended the symposium, among them South Africa’s Deputy President, Ms Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka.

The conference aims at inspiring businesswomen to innovate and invent for a sustainable future for all. Later, Mabel toured a number of provinces giving motivational talks to women groups

Anonymous said...

Stop being this

we know the Kenyan Airline by Mabel Mark was hedged on support from Deborah, Daughert of GlobalBa's Jeffrey, and that things are really bad.
website and contact for mr. Jeffrey is http://www.globalba.com/contactus.php

This will be quite hot!

Anonymous said...

I wonder if these fabled INSIDERS are only INSIDE your head.

Anyone who thinks that Kikuyus can be herded into coalitions especially with people who tried to exterminate them yesterday is out of his skull or an insider who lacks basic common sense. I guarantee you no single Kenyan politician can lead Kikuyus into a coalition with Kalenjins..the smoke hasn't cleared in Kiambaa church yet. Kikuyus will sooner vote for a Luo who does not consider then "adui" such as Tuju or Phillip Ochieng than a ressurected Jommo Kenyatta in alliance with Ruto and his barbarian brothers.

Of course I undertand you are basing your assumptions on how a certain tribe seems to follow a certain messiah even when it is clearly against their self interest...but trust me the Kikuyus will not be sheeped around.

Anonymous said...

What tangible evidence do you have against ODM ? and don't tell me you read it in the newspapers.All these media outlets have an agenda and the unsubstantiated stories can not be taken as the truth , the truth will finally come out and you will be dead wrong!

Anonymous said...

anon 1:45,

weren't you all herded to vote for matiba, then kibaki? Tell me any non-kikuyu who has ever benefited from kikuyu votes. Usituletee! In the mind of a kikuyu, a 'kihii' is supposed to be weakling bowind down to mighty kiuks - that is what kina tuju have made you people believe. Come this brave warrior who is supposedly a 'kihii' and all you cowards begin hating him with a passion - just because he refuses to wipe your bottoms tuju style. Bure kabisa.

Joe the choma man said...

Vikii,
flat out war with kikuyu??you lost me there
anyway, moving on

Anonymous said...

anon 2:56: herded by who? Kikuyus rightly voted for Matiba because of what he had done for the fight of multipartism. Your selective amnesia will probably lead you into denying that fact.

secondly, Matiba did not receive unanimous support from Kikuyus because there were those who trusted Kibaki's sober approach to issues more than Matiba's rash personality.

As to your question in regards a non-Kikuyu who has ever benefited from Kikuyu vote; so far none but I can tell you it will take a while if you think that their votes will be earned by calling them "adui" and whipping up the whole country into a battle euphoria against them.

We saw the attempt to "herd" Kikuyus fail miserably when they unanimously rejected Uhuru Kenyatta.

Kikuyus will always for the candidate they feel will best serve their interests...and this is how rational human beings should behave.

They voted for Kibaki in 2002 because of his disciplined position as an opposition leader, he did not prostitute himself from one party to another like Odinga did.

They voted him back in 2007 because (I know this because I am writing from Kenya) they say their economic situation improve considerably in the few years that Kibaki had presided over the country. Long abandoned factories were revived, KCC came back and started making profits, roads were constructed...etc. That is what they voted for, not a tribe.

Anonymous said...

as opposed to voting for a hummer! or is it a hammer! some tribes are just backwards, truth be told.

Anonymous said...

anon 5:37,

whose situation improved? the farmers and thieves who went on a looting spree? Ye sdon't we all remember how jobs were created for kikuyus, scholarsships rained like there was no tomorrow, and people were hounded out of jobs to pave way for kikuyus. Some even went home from many years abroad to partake of the gravy that was being served to kikuyus - and you wonder why you are hated.

Kwale said...

For those suffering under the current economic climate, it would be good to note the story of Conrad Hilton; the founder of Hilton Hotels worldwide. He entered hotel business by buying bed and breakfast and when God blessed him, he would later buy other hotels.
During American Great Depression he nearly lost several of his hotels. But because he was retained as manager, he eventually bought them back.

For business people it would be advisable to read Hilton's remarkable life story.

Anonymous said...

does anyone think that ruto and the kalenjins wont get shafted like LDP IN 2003? if indeed this rumor is true..... silly boys... it seems raila is done... his plans only work in opposition... i mean he has been lost since post election violence.. h totaly went aginst the grain and ave in to kibaki and accepted a meaningless post.

by mt kenya will never in opposition again

Anonymous said...

Hey, guess what. Well believe or not, and this is from a reliable source. Ruto's wife is in hospital, serously injoured. Apparently she tried to poison Ruto, after being promised 150m and the eldoret n. seat. But luckily for Ruto he found out before and gave her a serious beating and is now in hospital. Apparently Moi was behind the plot. Thats why i wonder if your story is accurate. How would Ruto negotiate with people after his life. Anyway chris check with your sources and yot will find this story to be true!

Anonymous said...

Chris as far as am concerned, this is sampling. You are the one gauging different scenarios and guess what, the politicians are reading here in preparation for the elections but I'll bust your bubble pole pole.

1. If one of the "partners pulls out of the coalition, an election is supposed to take place. ...err...who will do it if there is no ECK?
2. Next you will tell us that Saitoti is galvanizing the whole rift starting with Maasai's then slowly creep into the rest of the Rift Valley ati coz he has support of the Kyuk diaspora...utashangaa sana.
3. Just because Gidi and UK were in Saints together doesnt guarantee partnership between their communities..
4. The Kenyan electorate is much more learned this time and they will reject more MP's come 2012. I have this feeling that they wont vote on party affiliation but on individuals this time.

www.dk88.wordpress.com said...

There is no remaining trustworthy politician in Kenya - neither Luo nor kikuyu.
Those babbling with tribal sentiments are the greatest enemies of our country - could you please desist from that backward behaviour.
There is no MP in today's parliament that is worth being there.
The solution to Kenyan politics is not tribal alignments, realignments and counter-alignments. the solution lies in jailing all the current political crop - ALL and I mean ALL. Deport them to someplace, I don't know where - maybe Kismayu where the British took Kabaka Mutesa.
You may scorn at my radical solution but clearly the Grand Coalition Government needs to be toppled by the Military. The military should take over, guide the prosecution of the thieves, bring in experts to craft an agreeable constitution, stamp out corrupt entities then shepherd us towards a democratic election.
It may be painful but it a worthwhile venture. Many will die, but once and for all and never again.
Some dictator is the solution to Kenya's political problem.
I stand with Luther (the German monk) in saying "Peace whenever possible, truth at all times." The ostensible peace in Kenya is a facade. Neigh! Kenyans are not peace loving, they are pretenders. We need a good thorough shaking! So far, we are the only remaining country in Africa to go through this - and i promise you we have to. No peace and unity ever came without a war. The US fought many wars - most notably the civil war. Europe has always been in war with France rejoining NATO just the other day. South Africa haven't learned yet even after fighting an apartheid regime.
Sought it out with war - it is necessary.
Cry or smile - hate me for this but it is the bitter truth.

Anonymous said...

Could this be the same Deborah Jefferies that was in prison in the U.S.A, for some very serious offences, the same over sized balouga whale that has no more knowledge of directing a Company as she has of dieting,

Anonymous said...

This is for the haters of Mabel Mark. You only need to check companies house on her company which will show audited accounts in millions of pounds. How many Kenyans have that???? And while you are on that check on the land registry for her property portfolio plus how many vehicles are in her companies' name. It is a shame that sometimes Kenyans stoop so low and start critisizing when they see high flyers like Mrs Mark. Do tell us how many functions mabel has been seen in raising funds and helping Kenyans in the UK? Of course the writer doesn't have a clue! Sorry writer, you are vindictive maybe because you fell out with her and are consumed by the green-eyed Monster???

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