Most political analysts are in firm agreement that the days of our grand coalition government are numbered. But a commentator in this blog asked a question yesterday; how exactly will this undesirable animal be put to sleep? In this post we will look at a crazy scenario that is being floated based on unfolding insider information.
Before I do so let me bring something of great interest (albeit boring to most) to your attention. This past week I have talked to a considerable number of people doing business in Kenya. Ranging from the big boys with factories in industrial area and executive offices in leafy suburbs like Westlands to small time entrepreneurs surviving on a hand to mouth basis. All of them told me the same thing. That the politics in Kenya has already started affecting business. Investors are very worried and are holding off and postponing the release of funds for various expansion programmes already approved. Many firms are still cutting down dramatically on their staff seeking to be lean and mean in preparation for the hard times that everybody is anticipating. The net result is that many businesses are having a hard time just now. One executive told me that already many businesses are going through serious cash flow problems. Of great concern to the business community is the future of the grand coalition government and the feeding frenzy (scandals popping up all over the place faster than hot popcorns) going on in the bloated government at the moment.
Now before you start getting discouraged and thinking of shelving your plans for this new year or even relocating away from Kenya, let me make a simple statement of fact. America created the highest number of self-made millionaires in history NOT during boom times but during the great depression. Trouble also means huge opportunities for the brave and those who can dare think out of the box. Enough on business, lets plunge back into siasa.
Something really fascinating happened this past week. Legislator Johnstone “I will pay taxes on my MPs allowances” Muthama called a press conference and proceeded to accuse Prime Minister Raila Odinga of grand corruption that has led to the current Maize crisis in the country. Obviously Muthama was a messenger who was sent by somebody to deliver a message that seems to be part of a certain strategy. One man who was backing Muthama in the background was of course Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka who is desperately trying to re-position himself ahead of 2012. So bad are things for the VP that he is not even thinking of the presidency currently all he wants desperately for now is to remain relevant in the very fluid political goings-on within PNU over the Kibaki succession.
Insiders have suggested something pretty crazy and you will need to sit down to absorb this. Muthama’s move against the PM with the backing of Kalonzo and the President’s political strategists is part of a wider scheme by PNU to bring down the grand coalition government by withdrawing from the arrangement on the grounds that their ODM partner is way too corrupt. Now everybody has been talking about ODM walking out of the coalition so this one caught me completely by surprise. But my immediate question is what would PNU have to gain from walking away?
For starters regular readers of this blog already know that new alliances are rapidly being crafted (mostly at night) and the whole idea is to get the Kalenjin community out of ODM. Former president Moi has been burning the midnight oil on this one (instead of enjoying his retirement and twilight years) and it seems that there is now finally some light at the end of tunnel for the old tired man who used to be called the professor of politics. Although there is no way he can take credit for the breakthrough. Actually all credit must be claimed but that fearsome animal called The Hague. Everybody knows that William Ruto is on the Waki list and naturally the man will do anything to avoid dire consequences for his alleged role in the post election troubles. Impeccable sources have told this blogger that Ruto is talking to Emilio Stanley, Uhuru Kenyatta and Kiraitu Murungi about a new grand alliance between the Mount Kenya axis and the Kalenjin, isolating the Prime Minister and the Luo community.
So now you have the picture. PNU withdraw out of the coalition citing the excessive corruption within it’s ODM partner. When the dust settles a new coalition government is formed that does not include ODM. That seems to be roughly the plan on the drawing boards.
If truth be told a quick count of scandals so far shows that ODM is leading PNU in this area.
Oh boy, what a country!!!
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