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Friday, March 07, 2008

10th Parliament: Why Nobody Wants To Be In The Opposition

Plus trouble brewing over ODM deputy premier appointment?


One would have thought that the best strategy for any politician in the 10th parliament who does not get a cabinet position, would be to position themselves in the opposition in readiness for the next general elections which many people believe will be held in 2 years time.

After all going by what has happened in the past, the government always manages to get unpopular sooner or later presenting a “through pass” to any carefully positioned opposition candidate to easily get re-elected into the august house.



But alas, Kenyan politics always has its’ bizarre twists. It is now becoming clearly evident that hardly anybody in the 10th parliament wants to be in the opposition. Virtually all PNU affiliate parties are saying that they are included in the grand coalition and are therefore in government. The same with ODM affiliate parties. And what complicates matters further is that both PNU and ODM are working very hard behind scenes to ensure that they have a parliamentary majority in the house (just in case).

What that means is that contrary to what we are being told, there will hardly be any opposition in the 10th parliament unless something changes drastically. The “opposition” task it seems will be left to the press and the rising power of blogs like Kumekucha but that is hardly the same thing as having a strong opposition in the house.

Forget about the back bench because when all the numbers are in government a back bencher in say ODM or even PNU is of no consequence.

Those who understand Kenyan politics well are fully aware of the reason why there is this mad scramble for government as if there were no political tomorrow.

Read more

27 comments:

Phil said...

Chris, thanks for this.

As I told you before, the Kibaki succession battle IS ON!

Raila's body language in Kibera yesterday tells me that him and Kibaki have worked on a DEAL and that the deal will see Raila inherit Kibaki's mantle come 2010.

Another thing, I have read how much William Ruto helped ODM secure Rift Valley votes and for that reason should be deservedly appointed deputy PM. I want it to go on record Chris; William Ruto will NEVER be the Deputy PM. I can give you a guarantee on that and also advise you that either Musalia Mudavadi or Charity Ngilu will be Deputy PM. (I shall later be posting what will be Kenya's grand coalition cabinet). That Raila has got pointmen in Rift Valley other than Ruto is fact. That Raila beat Ruto hands down in the ODM nominations is another fact. The two Kosgei's (Sally and Henry) in my opinion rank high above Ruto in the ODM hierarchy - and this is NO LIE. Just like Kalonzo, Hon Ruto, is NOT presidential material. One needs to assess may attributes when an individual purports that they are presidential material. Please lets stop over-rating this political greenhorn known as Ruto. In 1992 Ruto and Jirongo played the role that the likes of Livondo are playing now.

Raila has said ODM will continue working as a TEAM and its cabinet will reflect Kenya's and ODM's diversity. IN other words all tribes, gender, age and religion will be in the ODM cabinet. (The parliamentary nominations should give you an idea of what ODM cabinet will be. Better still, read Raila's vision and the ODM manifesto to understand what I am talking about. As we speak, Rift Valley province already have a record number of ministers while Nyanza has only one - in Kisii. It is high time you guys realised that this country has changed and it will never be business as usual - NEVER AGAIN.

Anonymous said...

I think the Deputy PM seat should go to one of the leaders of Rift Valley.

They have all been very dedicated to ODM and have worked hard to make the party strong and popular. In terms of leadership they have a lot to offer.

Mudavadi in my opinion is a good man....but not a strong leader.

mrembowaodm said...

can somebody tell those silly riftvalley politicians to stop employing antics that will split our party!!

in all fairness mudavadi was going to be raila's number two and since i have known agwambo to be a gentleman, i am seriosly praying that he will do the right thing.

i dont really understand those mps endorsing ruto...regardless of whether he helped odm or not!! by the way my sources tell me the kalenjin vote did not go to odm because of ruto!!-i have been made to understand raila did some serious groundwork (read 'legwork') in riftvalley province during the odm-k days, convinced those guys that he was gonna lead them to canaan and that is why they crowned him 'arap mibei', at the time ruto was still dilly-dallying with kalonzo miracle wiper....raila was assured of those riftvalley votes long before ruto joined the bandwagon!! as i understand it, it was the people that advised ruto to follow the right track and not the other way round!! hao mps wawache hiyo mchezo!!

of course chris, i am not opposed to ruto as deputy-pm, it is just that even in the pentagon we had a hierarchy before the elections and i think it should be respected!! however if we get the vp post under the '50/50' sharing agreement then mudavadi can be appointed to that vp post and no one will see me complaining about ruto being deputy prime-minister.

if things go well, this new government is gonna be a spectacle to watch though, karua versus ruto? i cant wait!!

Anonymous said...

Phil
I dont think there is any 2010 deal between kibaki and Raila otherwise it would contravene the constitution. Even the Bomas draft not talk about power inheritance.

I somehow agree with you on deputy PM and regional balancing of ministrial appointments. This will a big headache for Kibaki and Raila.
Raila being a politician must appease his RV supporters, these guys revolted against moi and threw their weight behind him. Kibakis nightmare is droping the already appointed minsters.

We need a strong opposition but from the past experience we have not had any effective and issue oriented oppostion in Kenya. Maybe we need guys like Haroun Mwau to head PAC and PIC cos they are neither ODM,PNU nor ODM-K

Kimi Raikkonen said...

You ODM guys are truly strange. You are the same people who claimed here that there was no way Kibaki could be trusted and that you would watch him like a hawk!
Now, even before you have ascertained that Raila is no more than a glorified prefect,and that as a PM he actually has no real power and that all the effective power remained with Kibaki, you are already claiming that Kibaki has done a deal with him to anoint him his successor! Wow!

You are the same guy who claimed that Mudavadi would become a compromise PM! Turned out to be shameless rumour mongering.

You are very naive if you now think that Raila can sideline Ruto and work with Sally Kosgei or Henry Kosgei. If these two acquiesce to such scheming, they might as well not step in the RV. Knowing Raila, he will try anyway, as he values loyalty above everything else and does not tolerate uncontrollable MPs with alternative power bases.
He is therefore courting trouble in ODM, as demonstrated by the utterances of Kalenjin MPs in todays Daily Nation. Those youths who were murdering and burning in the RV and by extension the wazees who control them are all loyal to Ruto, not Sally and Henry Kosgei. We all know that the ODM nominations were choreographed so do not pull that one.
I do not think you understand the kind of power Ruto now has. He has most MPs from the RV loyal to him. What would stop him from doing a deal with Kibaki and doing it now in readiness for 2012, and weakening ODM in the process?
He has worked with Kalonzo and Uhuru before. Those two Kibaki loyalists are already forming an alliance for 2012. What is to stop him from joining this alliance if he perceives that Raila is too dictatorial and has interests at cross purposes with his?
Ruto IS NOT after being President. He never has. Ruto is just a buccaneer and plunderer and is looking for the best position from where to do that in comfort. If he doesn't get the ODM DPM's post, what will he do? What will Mudavadi do? ODM is damned if they do and damned if they don't.
Ati read Raila's vision? Frankly i could cry at such foolishness. That story is now over, DON'T YOU UNDERSTAND?! There NEVER WAS any vision! Raila is now where he always wanted to be, in power or at least the illusion of it, and all else is now old hat. What a funny story!
I suggest you give that vision document to the Vitimbi group to write a screenplay for one of their TV shows. You won't even need Raila's permission to do that, he will probably applaud you.

Anonymous said...

Phil, are you saying all that about Ruto. I think Derek once said that Ruto can never rise that far and he was dismissed here. It was said that Derek does not know anything. In fact Derek is one man who said that the handiworks ofd Ruto and Jirongo will be felt by thius country for a very long time.

Phil, Ruto will be very lucky if Raila proposes him for an influential ministry - if he has to serve as a cabinet minister.

Phil, to say the least, you are right about Ruto and please make sure that he remains where he is. People have already started taklking about it. 2010 hapana!

deroo said...

Has it occured to you people that Raila Odinga is already spekaing of poolicies and yet he is not even in government?

I for one believe that is the country's most influentila politician and there is no shred of doubt.

But even before he is named PM and even sworn-in Raila is more government than PNU big boys. More PNU than Michuki and even more PNU than Uhuru Kenyatta. Indeed, they have all gone quiet and he is now running the show. Believe it or not, Raila has made more politicalk statement in the last one week than all cabinet ministers combined, including one Mwai Kibaki. That is just a taste of power. He is really weilding it at the moment...

If one has to read the 2001 script oif his abolition and subsequent swallowing of NDP, then, Raila, like then on Moi, now trusts Kibaki, have had a word with him and above all, his community are now contented with the PM's post!

But then, in the three parties that he led into COPULATION with others, he NEVER started any, and all if any, were Nyanza Democratic Party, Luo Democratic Party and finally, Odinga Dictatorial Movement into accepting and recognising that Kibaki is PRESIDENT.

Power hungry? We want change? Mass Action, Economic sabotage? People have decided and what's more...I cannot work with a thief!!! Alah!

-Derek-

Anonymous said...

SORRY GUYS!!

RUTO WILL BE THE DEPUTY PM- even with all the PNU PROPAGANDA TO LINK HIM WITH THE RIFT VALLEY PROBLEMS DID NOT STICK!! I UNDERSTAND MUDAVADI IS VERY FINE WITH THAT- SINE THE LUYHA'S HAVE the position of the SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE AND ATTORNEY GENERAL AMOS WAKO~~

KUMEKUCHA0 PEOPLE SHOULD LOOK CLOSELY TO THE PNU MARRIAGE?

HOW COME IT IS THE MOST CONTESTED DP POSITION FROM ALL OTHER PARTIES?? AND YOU KUMEKUCHA HAD TO PICK ON THE ODM LITTLE SAGA???

THIS PLACE IS STARTING TO SOUND LIKE PNU PAID FOR!!!!!

TRY TO LEVEL THE PLATFORM HERE KUMEKUCHA!!
I ASK YOU AGAIN IS PNU IN TROUBLE FOR THE DP POSITION??? GIVE US SOME FACTS!!

Anonymous said...

KUMEKUCHA?? SOME PEOPLE ARE COMPLAINING THAT YOU ARE INDEED POSTING HERE MOSTLY PNU FRIENDLY POSTS???? WHAT IS HAPPENING??? HOW COME THERE IS MORE OF RAILA NEGATIVE HERE THAN KIBAKI??
MASHADA IS GIVING EVERYONE A CHANCE TO ARGUE BOTH SIDES!!

BUT HERE YOU ARE BEING ONE SIDED SO YOU DO NOT REPRESENT THE TRUE VOICE OF KENYAN PEOPLE!!

I THINK WORD SHOULD BE PAST ON TO NEWSPAPERS LIKE BBC, CCN, CBC GUARDIAN, REUTRERS E.T.C BECAUSE BEFORE THEY USED TO MENTION YOUR BLOGS !!BUT THEN YOU USE TO ALLOW KENYANS AN EQUAL PLATFORM FOR WHOM EVER THEY SUPPORTED!! BUT NOW YOU DON'T!!! WE CAN'T ALLOW YOU TO BE OUT THERE BEHAVING LIKE THE DAILY NATION IN SUPPORT OF PNU AND KIBAKI!!!

Anonymous said...

Hey PNU supporters look at your own party who is going to be the deputy PM???

DEPUTY MINISTER= MARTHA KARUA

DEPUTY MINISTER = UHURU KENYATTA

DEPUTY MINISTER = RAFAEL TUJU

DEPUTY MINISTER = ONGERI

AND THE FIGHT GOES ON THIS WEEKEND ON GROUND IN KENYA!!

ODM LIKE RAILA SAID IS A PARTY OF TRUE LADIES AND GENTLEMEN!!!
THEY KNOW HOW TO PLAY FAIR TO REPRESENT ALL THE CONSTITUENCIES FAIRLY!!

Anonymous said...

Kumekucha? how come i'm not reading on here anything regarding the big war on ground in PNU?? slot for deputy minister? i here fists and blows come out somewhere!! this is very heated!

we already know odm has not big problems on that position!! Ruto and Mudavadi and Raila is said to have talked and they all are happy with what they have decided on that position!!!you will know on Tuesday!!

meanwhile kibaki is stack!! people have been trying to see him since Friday to complain and fight for thier own chosen contender!!!

Anonymous said...

PNU is the party in trouble on the DP position?? guys has anyone else heard of the fist fight??

oops i guess it ain't going to MARTHA KARUA!! even mama Rucy has come out and said NO!!no!!no! Martha Karua NEXT to her Darling kibaki!!!

Anonymous said...

KUMEKUCH WHAT IS HAPPENING HERE??

I have send my post and it aint being posted?? seems that you always let your personal friends Derek and Phil have their say on here!!
Your blog has become a family friends blog and more poking of holes in ODM = you seem to be supporting - KIBAKI AND MARTHA KARUA AGENDA HERE!! as much as you would like people to think otherwise!!

the example is right under your nose!!!
WHO HAS MORE TROUBLE BREWING IN THE CHOOSING OF DEPUTY MINISTER??

PNU OR ODM??

MOST KENYANS WILL POINT OUT TO YOU IT IS PNU IF YOU ARE ON GROUND IN KENYA IT IS OBVIOUS - PARTIES LIKE NARC-KENYA AND KANU ARE BLOWING EACH OTHER OUT!!

I WAS ACTUALLY EXPECTING KUMEKUCHA TO CARRY THAT STORY!! BUT WENT TO SAY INSTEAD THAT ODM IS IN TROUBLE WHEN EVERYONE ON GROUND ALREADY KNOWS THAT THAT POSITION WAS ALREADY DECIDED AT A MEETING BETWEEN = MUDAVADI- RUTO AND RAILA THIS WEEK FRIDAY!! SO YOU ARE POSTING STALE NEWS!!

WHAT IS YOUR MOTIVE?? I WONDER??

Anonymous said...

MOST PEOPLE HERE UNDERESTIMATE RUTO AND HIS INTELLIGENCE except for Raila he didn't

Raila saw Ruto as a powerhouse to shut down Moi WHO HAD messed with Rift Valley POLITICS AND Viola Ruto shut up MOI and HIS SONS FOR GOOD!!!

Raila ia not a fool to sideline RUTO !!! he needs the Rift Valley Vote seriously come next elections!! the luyha vote is already divided but the rift valley vote under Ruto is BLOCK VOTE!!

PNU FEARS RUTO'S POWERS AND that is why they have tried to malign his name everywhere even in the media but it didn't work!!you see RUTO HAS proof and facts what reqlly happened in the rift valley!!!
ask MARTHA KARUA AND MICHUKI why they are scared!!!

RAILA WILL GIVE RUTO DP !!!
HE DESERVES THAT POSITION MORE THAN ANYONE ELSE!!

BETWEEN RUTO ODM =DP
AND MARTHA KARUA=DP

KENYAN POLLS SHOW THAT 85% OF KENYANS WOULD WELCOME RUTO'S APPOINTMENT AS DP FOR ODM

UNLIKE MARTHA KARUA- LESS THAN 1% OF KENYANS WANT TO SEE HER IN THE DP POSITION - i GUESS KENYANS HAD ENOUGH OF HER ABUSE AND DISREGARD OF SUFFERING IN DECEMBER AND JANUARY!!

Anonymous said...

Kumekucha?? what is up? 7 comments only?? are you shut down??

Anonymous said...

Ruto is the guy for deputy position!! as much as PNU and Martha Karua has tried to propaganda him by blaming him for the Rift Valley problems- we have now come to know that those were planned by the former president to help PNU discredit ODM party!!! so no pan on that one!! RUTO SUITS THE POSITION 0 HE FORT HARD FOR ODM!

I PITY PNU WITH THE FIGHT BETWEEN ALL THOSE OTHER PARTIES?? IS IT GOING TO BE UHURU OR KARUA THE EVIL BITCH!!!

Anonymous said...

I think much as Raila will look to appease voters in different parts of Kenya, he must not forget that some of the so called "influential leaders" are tainted and appointing them will only add mud to his post. Am sure Kibaki might resort to new faces only. He might decide to drop all the ministers that have tested the waters. I am just waiting to see what Raila does, will he disappoint?

Anonymous said...

Kumekucha?? what is happening on this blog?? with all your moderating and with the time difference I ASSUME you are abroad!! you are not allowing us kenyans on the ground to post our views in time or exchange threads on here?? by the time we view our posts it is usually time barred to reply and you are already on your next topic!!!how fair do you think you are?? so it is all one sided views from kenyans in the diaspora??

I don't think you intended this for your blog??

Anonymous said...

deroo said...

Has it occurred to you-----yes it has!!

Deroo! Raila is doing the job kenyans voted him to do?? I can't say munch for the people in PNU*******
so lets not start pushing labels on here!! Kenyans want action^^^^ and Raila is already in action!!

Wanjiku - Mombasa said...

So Kibaki will one day say Raila Tosha!

Anonymous said...

I hate to burst anyone's bubble, but as someone commented earlier, Raila has gotten what he wanted. Get over the vision etc.

Yes, he has made more statements in the last week that anyone else, even those in government, and he isn't yet official. But really, we all know he gets tremendous media coverage, likes to stay in front of cameras etc. But making statements and working, are two very different things. Case in point, wasn't he the roads minister for 2 years during Kibaki's time? What did he accomplish besides being always on TV Moi style? Hasn't he been the MP for Kibera forever? Why is it that Kibera has remained as poor? Look at Nyanza, State support or otherwise, with the kind of global access Raila has, if he wanted/could help his community, he would have done that a long time ago.

So expect the statements, media visibility etc to continue. But if we want the real change we so crave, we must stay on course. We must keep calling out any mistakes our leaders make. As someone else here said, na mapambano bado......

Anonymous said...

There will be an opposition. Ngojeni tu. Once the cabinet is announced...

Kenyan dailies are already reporting that GEMA M.P.s have sent Kibaki a written petition urging him not to skimp them in cabinet posts.

Anonymous said...

Anon @ 8.44: Precisely, Raila is indeed doing the job we asked him to do.

Arap Mibei's party is a party of reform. We will implement what Kenyans have been yearning for since the sixties when Kenyatta started tinkering with the constitution.

As one Kumekuchan used to say steadfastly Kibaki apende asipende - tembe atameza.

Alimeza.

Phil said...

Kimi

I do not know if you have the details about the power sharing deal between ODM and PNU and if you have any incling about the powers of the imminent office of the prime minister – who will be head of government and the president who will remain as head of state. You also seem to have no idea that the constitution is being AMENDED so as to accomodate the deal – as opposed to the idea of the current president appointing some sort of chief minister and incorporating ODM members into his cabinet. Thats why I shall forgive you when you say Raila ‘is no more than a glorified prefect’.

Also you may not be aware, but many proposals were put forward during the mediation talks, including the formation of a transitional government to organise new elections. Again, not all proposals were adopted. During the time I made the Mudavadi post, the talks were still on-going and obviously this proposal, like many others, was not adopted in the final agreement.

I have my reasons for saying Ruto is presently overated. My reasons will become clear when the cabinet is named...with Mudavadi as PM, because events are evolving very fast.

As a man who has been on the ground in Rift Valley and much of Kenya, I can tell you most of Rift Valley MPs currently in ODM were actually elected as a result of demands by the people who were attracted to ODM because of its policys and the moral standing of its leaders. Thats why KANU was rejected during the last general elections.
Prior to the ODM nominations in 2007, I was privy to discussions by elders of rift valley, nyanza and western together with the ODM leaders. Separate talks were held with Islamic elders. I can tell you that the resolutions of these elders is taken very seriously within the ODM ranks because rural voters usually follow the word of these. Yes, Ruto, like Raila, has been officially declared a kalenjin elder but according to agreements reached lat year, he still has a long way to go before he can lay claim to being the political leader of the Kalenjins. As a community, very few Kalenjins harvested fruits of political power during Moi’s time. Infact most of them were victimised merely because of the actions of Moi and his chronies – one of whom was Ruto. Kalenjins are now looking to reclaim their rightful position in Kenyan changing political landscape and it is likely they will provide a VP/DPM in the not so distant future.

One of Raila’s (and ODM’s) vision/manifesto issues was the introduction of the USAWA programme which aims to bring about economic and political equality to all communities of Kenya. In other words, you are living in ancient times if you imagine that numerical strength necessarily means one community is greater politically than others. If that is the case, brace yourselves for a BIG surprise because you will be shocked when the ODM part cabinet is named.

Thats right Wanjiku - Kibaki is morally obligated to say Raila Tosha.

Anonymous said...

Where is Phil from? During MOi's time, Kalenjins enjoyed unparalleled employment in the parastatals, government, army prison, police and ambasadorial posting. The only bad thing is that despite all the openings they had, very few invested. The Kikuyu way, they stole and invested and cannot be moved or changed under whatever circumstances that may arise.

Indeed, what Moi did for Kalenjins is what Kenyatta did for the Kikuyu and {hil shoudl not say that Kalenjins never benefitted. Eldoret Airport, Eldoret Barracks, Moi University, Moi Referral Hospital, all the roads, and other infrastructural devemlopments are suppooseed to catalyse development. But the Kales never made use oif that. they (the few that grabbed) instead only developed individually and not as a community. Just as the case of Raila Odinga and his businesses. they benefit a few and his own province, including his village neighbourhood hosts the poorest communities in the country.

It is a pity that it can be said that Kalenjins never benefitted from Moi at all.

Ruto just wants a way that he can protect ghimself from having a date with the prison babers and drapers. Howeever, the truth is that the ODM sweep was a vote of rejection. They were bitter that for five years, there are places in their backyardss that only saw retrenchees drinking away their golden handshake and no employments being registered.

And what about the cases in courts??????????????

Anonymous said...

Kenyans why are you still fighting on who will get what post.. isn't it obvious?
In ODM we hope it obvious Mudavadi is the deputy captain and any position calling for deputy is automatically his?
Also truth be told his style compliments RAO.
Ruto will be a powerful govt minister for those who hate him so much to meza wembe...
As for PUNU the most likely candidates are Karua and uhuru- Saitoti hatoboi, and Kiraitu is just sleep walking.
The media loves RAO as u can see they follow him even when he is on holiday. You have to agree Kenyan news is incomplete without him and guy sure knows how to speak...
Derek and one Kimmi can continue saying what they want about the people's president( bcoz he still is) we know he will perform and mta meza wembe!!!

Anonymous said...

About Derek & Kimmi.....Anon 5:00am i couldn't agree more

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