…..of a grand coalition.
The second Kibaki cedes a fraction of 'his' presidential powers to Raila, his ass is toast. First of all, based on the selective manner he has handled the post election violence, he will never be able to convince anyone that his partial surrender is purely for the interest of peace...for all Kenyans. Secondly, not only will he be proclaiming to the entire world that he indeed stole the election, he will also be raising the white flag in desperate anticipation for the safest possible exit. I think we all agree that if elections were to be held outside of an year, Kibaki will not be on the ticket. Lastly, I'm not quite sure Kibaki has it in him to share a stage with Raila. As I've said before, any power sharing arrangement has to be sold to the people...which pretty much means joint public peace rallies. I need not say more.
Of course the other causes of Kibaki/PNU headaches include oversight and scrutiny in everything from allocation of government contracts, government appointments, review of future IPOs and the like; things that the current and previous retinue of Kibaki handlers are not necessary welcoming with warm open arms. While I appreciate that some characters have absolved Kibaki of his sins and will go to the trenches of war with him, I cannot understand how they will perceive his concessions... if any. There's a school of thought that suggests it's about time Kibaki metamorphosed into the Moi of 1982. That for government continuity, he should go about detaining folks like Okoiti Omtata, Maina Kiai, Wangari Maathai and Wafula Buke. That it is Raila's turn to live in Sweden writing books and poems of freedom. That the spoils of war must not be shared (it actually was a war my friends). That the army must reflect the people in power. Oh please Kibaki do not forsake us! Do not let go. I'm not quite sure why I brought that up but it appears that may be Kibaki's only option in the failure of a safe exit.
The next most neglected and least discussed source of prime fear is parliament. It is fair to say that 'false until proven claims' of Ruto financing atrocities in the Rift Valley hasn't endeared the party to some. Government media reports of ODM encouraging and endorsing violence has had some effects; even internationally. That as it is, all Kenyan voters acknowledge that PNU was and is still out to demonize Raila and ODM (remember the text messages). Sometimes, the purveyor of negative political campaigns ultimately suffers the backlash. So what's my point? Should peace and normalcy ensue as a result of a power sharing formula it will be because ODM has inched closer to power (like the people wanted) and not because PNU has partially conceded for the sole sake of peace. Outrageous as it sounds, please expect the defection of PNU mps to the ODM camp. Don't laugh yet; you see, power sharing may also mean subjecting Kalonzo to the periphery (where he belongs) thereby dismantling the current PNU arrangement. Also, it may not be wise or safe for some MPs to remain in PNU depending on where they come from. That PNU will be reduced to CPK (Central Kenya Party) is a foregone conclusion. In effect, Odinga anywhere near power means death to PNU.
These are just tit bits of what PNU has to contend with. The reality is that some of these folks spend sleepless nights with their passports under their pillows; ready to dash to foreign lands at the sound of the national anthem opening parliament with Raila an 'equal' to Kibaki.
Well, that's the rosy part. Now for the road leading to fire and brimstone. ODM/Raila has no option but to come out of these negotiations with 'true goods'. If all he gets is a cabinet position, no matter how serious, even I will cross over to KENDA. They must also not exude the arrogance associated with PNU. While a 50/50 arrangement towards peace and fresh elections is a win for many Kenyans, ODM must not be seen as gloating...the kicks of a dying PNU are the most dangerous. Further, for this thing to work, Kenyans must come together.
So long for the dream. Reality checks reveal that Kibaki historically does not honor any agreement. He is not a gentleman. With such evidence, ODM must pursue constitutional legitimacy on anything agreed on...especially if Kibaki appends his signature with his left hand.