Monday, December 31, 2007

My Chilling Predictions: Oh How I Wish I had Been Wrong

Plus Vikii's strange comment: Did Vikii know the President's strategy in advance?

I get super-busy sometimes and don't notice even recent work that I have posted.

My attention was recently drawn to this post that I made just before the general elections on Dec 24th;

Monday, December 24, 2007

Elections 2007: What Consequences?

As we head to the elections after Boxing day, I find that I have less and less to say to you my dear readers and more worrying to do.

If Raila wins, what will the consequences be? Will the Kibaki administration hand over power peacefully? Will they accept defeat?

If Kibaki wins what will happen to Kenya? Will Kenyans in 6 provinces accept the results? Will the multitudes of Kenyans desperate for change—any change accept such a result?

How long will it take to heal the wounds that started with the terribly expensive referendum of 2005 which cost Kenyans much more than just a lot of money?

What if the elections produce a constitutional crisis that the current constitution can never handle?

And most of all my eyes are firmly focused on the Langata constituency where nobody quite knows what is going to happen.

Enough has been said and now is the time to sit back and see what happens. Now is the time to let the people of Kenya speak. My prayer is that they will speak so loudly and clearly that there will be no constitutional crisis. My prayer is that precious lives will be spared. The truth is that no politician is worth dieing for let alone our current crop of selfish, self-seeking ….. (I restrain myself from using abusive language).

The truth is that even as Kenyans shout themselves hoarse in support of their preferred candidate, this is a very dangerous and unpredictable time for Kenya.

I take this opportunity to wish you all my dear friends, a merry Christmas and a prosperous new year, 2008. Thank you for your support and most of all thank you for your patience as I have rumbled on and on throughout the year coming up with views that have been very different from the ones you hold dear. Nothing personal though, I just love my country too much and I am sure the same is true with you and that is why you have chosen to spend valuable time here with all the characters that have made “kumekucha” their home.

Please don’t run away in shame if the election results don’t go the way you want. Let’s keep talking here and learning from each other so that we quickly get to understand why the election results go they way they will.

Let’s continue to love our country, irrespective of our poliyical leanings. After all Kenya is bigger than out preferred candidate, bigger than our issues and feelings.

God bless Kenya. God bless us all.

How I wish I had been wrong.

You can see the post here;

http://kumekucha.blogspot.com/2007/12/elections-2007-what-consequences.html

These were the 2 comments on that day. Notice Vikii's chillingly accurate prediction;

Anonymous said...
There you go again. PNU already said that if they lose, power will be handed over. But how come you cannot fathom an ODM loss? I believe there would be a problem only if Hon Raila loses. Most ODM supporters exude confidence that their man shall win- that is OK. Most of them would really like him to win- OK. But what IF (big IF) Hon Raila loses in a fair contest?

Hmm, lemme guess. Then ODM will say, " We reject results, we have always said the Govt would rig. Here is the proof. We lost!"

I hope ODM proves me wrong, in the unlikely event that they lose.

2:34 AM
Vikii said...
My take is that the consttution, though not perfect in as far as transfer of power goes, it leaves no room for a crisis. It is simple; win the majority vote, get 25% in at least five provinces and win your parliamentary seat. There will be no crisis. If one wins the majority vote and fails to meet any of the other two requirements, that is not a crisis. We just go for the run-off which Kivuitu has already budgeted for.

Just a reminder; Those Kenyans in those 'six provinces' may not have a choice. The presidential vote is not about how many provinces one wins but how many votes one gets. They may just decide to take a walk on the streets and that will be it.

51 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. Chris:

    Why this paranoia in the last couple of days? Are you exhausted? Do you need a break?

    I am as disappointed as the next Kenyan because our faith in our electoral process has been shattered. If we cannot have a referee who appears to be impartial then why even play the game?

    Vickii's thoughts are not "chilling" neither do they reveal a priori knowledge of "the President's strategy", it's just what any astute observer of most elections would say.

    In a couple of days this whole hullabaloo will die down. We Kenyans are a poor lot and we'll have to go back to scratching at the dirt to provide for our families. There will be residual anger and resentment for sure, but if Kenya could survive 1969 then we certainly will survive 2007.

    I don't foresee an "Orange Revolution" a la Ukraine in Kenya.

    -Silaha

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  3. Guys, me I'm feeling very sad for Raila, esp when I think what it were me? The only thing that makes me less sad is that there were claims of rigging from his strongholds as well, and the ODM did not have any concerns about that until it dawned on them that Raila might actually be losing. This is not uncharacteristic of them since they accuse others of being corrupt even as they get fat from corruptly acquired Kenyan property. I want to be sympathetic and listen to my heart,but my rational mind tells me that we cannot apply justice emotionally and partially. We need to listen to both sides. You all know that Derek and I had actually pre-accepted 'defeat' when the margin was more than a million votes with Raila leading. But then, Central Kenya had more than 2.2m registered voters and most of those vores hadn't come in yet. Plus the hotly disputed ones from Meru.


    I keep suggesting that we have a run-off as the constitution duly allows but it seems to be falling on deaf ears. I feel like that's b/c Kibaki would emerge the undisputed winner since Stevo has shown support for Kibaki, ever since ODM started heckling the ECK over the numbers coming from the PNU strongholds. Most likely in the hopes that he will get the VP post and be well- positioned to run for president in 2012. Of course that would give Kibaki more than half a million votes, and that would be clean. Chris has tried to pre-dispose of this fact by claiming that both those that voted for Kalonzo and those that voted for Kibaki regret their democratic choice, but why don't we give it a shot? If you think its worthwhile, that is.

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  4. you are wrong - its not only the shape and reputation of your country at stake here - it's your own.

    And if one does not understand that yet, then I feel sorry.

    I still don't call for uproar and war because this would call for even more bloodshed...........

    I still pray that there will be another solution.

    Marianne Briner

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  5. It is a government for the Kikuyus by the Kikuyus of the Kikuyus. God save kenya.

    KM

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  6. Those who can have left:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7165754.stm

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  7. PKW:

    There is no legal basis for a run off, our constitution is clear. As quoted on the ECK website there are the following requirements for election as President of Kenya, and, per Kivuitu's remarks yesterday, Kibaki has met them all.

    - No candidate can be declared a winner ... unless he/she also is elected as an MP.
    - The winner must receive more valid votes than any of the other candidates
    - In addition [the winner must] score at least 25% of the valid votes cast in the election in at least five of the eight provinces into which Kenya is divided.

    Importantly, the ECK website goes on to say that the President assumes office as soon as he is declared elected by the ECK.

    So, unless there is some basis for challenging Kivuitu's declaration of Mwai Kibaki as president, I think that legally Raila has very few options.

    -Silaha

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  8. Silaha: state the options and lets weight them, and go with the best.

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  9. Well unlike the US where you have depend on electoral votes, we deal with the actual counts. AND if ECK, based on the total counts find a candidate to be the winner, then they officially become the winner. In think case, based on the votes, Kibaki won by 200k+ votes and whether the majority of the votes came from 2 provinces or 7, he has won. As for Raila and the Million people march, I guess, it will just be that, a demonstration-- but nothing will come out of it. He will have to let things go on for the betterment of the country.

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  10. I bet you my friend, don't underestimate the power of the people. You cannot and will not stop an idea that's boiling. The people will march until haki yao is returned. Kibaki must go.

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  11. I just saw on French TV footages of the morgue in Kisumu. Good grief!

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  12. Hellen Okello (aka Jatinga?) I have never underestimated the power of the people, but I underestimate Kenyans away from home. Kwanza, they run away from the issues for decades, tena they don't vote. Isitoshe, when Kenyan Kenyans vote, those who ran away hide behind their computers and think that 'the people' are actually at a cyber cafe waiting for their next command to go on a rampage. Huh, the people! Are you one of the people, as in will you actually match?

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  13. PKW, were're here to debate issues important to the survival of our beloved nation. I'm not here for your personal insults. I will not address them!

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  14. There is no dispute that Kibaki has stolen the presidency. Even Kumekuchans of auspicious integrity in support of Kibaki recognize, deep in their hearts, that what we have experienced these past few days is a serious episode of grand theft. As they celebrate and indulge in the loot, they should never again question the roots of deep resentment. To sit back and watch the scrawny fingers of Michuki and his ilk digging deep into our democratic rights by shutting down media houses and issuing 'shoot on sight decrees' is plain treason.

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  15. Ha ha ha, as usual, running away from the issues! Just address what's convenient for you to address.

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  16. PKW, First, I'm a Kenyan, just like any Kenyan. Just because some of us (Kenyans)are abroad doesn't mean that we are any less Kenyans. Therefore, refrain from insulting other Kenya loving citizens. We ought to respect each other and currently in this forum, we can agree to disagree or disagree to agree but nonetheless,we are all passionate about Kenya and we all love out HOME.

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  17. Can somebody comfirm stories of 800 kenyan refugees in uganda?

    This is the darkest week in our history. Fuck KIbaki, Fuck Michuki, FUck Lucy!! Look what they are are doing to my people because of your bullshit. MY family is kikuyu and we toiled the same way we toiled before we had a kikuyu president. I am no willing to die just for the pride of saying that the kenyan president is from my tribe.

    Kenyans keep the peace please, poor kikuyus should not pay the price for the crimes of the filthy, disgusting elite.

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  18. Not that I'm 'on the burning ground' myself, just giving you a perspective that we generally don't appreciate.

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  19. Back to issues, I congratulate Hon. Odinga for forming a parallel gov't soon as Kibaki swore himself in illegally. We take our marching orders from the democratically elected gov't of the Hon. Raila Odinga.

    I love my motherland and will always bow to my flag with dignity that it deserves.

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  20. Gotta go now. Will be back later to check on the 'progress' of the 'issues'.

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  21. Thank you A-Kenyan-and-a-Kikuyu for the link to the constitution.

    PKW

    Other than illegal actions which I will not address here, we have a President for the 2007-2012 term, so in order to revisit the election the constitution states that the office of the President must become "vacant"

    There are the following reasons for vacancy of the office.

    1 - By reason of death
    2 - or resignation
    3 - or by reason of his ceasing to hold office by virtue of section 10 (hearing and determination of a question whether a person has been validly elected as President)
    4 - or by reason of his ceasing to hold office by virtue of section 12 (unable by reason of physical or mental infirmity to exercise the functions of that office)

    1 - Kibaki like all of us will die one day but that may not happen before 2012.
    2 - I don't see Kibaki willingly resigning.
    3 - Well our courts are not known for swift decision making, and are also considered somewhat corrupt.
    4 - Kibaki, no matter what you think of him, is not mad or incapable. If you choose to go down this path you would need to get the CJ, the Speaker and the Cabinet to work together on the determination. Sooner will a camel pass through the eye of a needle!

    So, PKW, our only practical legal option is to hold our breath for 5 more years.

    -Silaha

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  22. Silaha, I don't think passionate Kenyans across the board who cast their votes to RAILA, will wanna wait five more years. They need their rights now. OR NEVER.

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  23. ODM DID NOT COMMIT ELECTORAL FRAUD. Those claims have been manufactured by a beseiged Mwai Kibaki and his guilty ECK comrades. Unfortunately, gullible people like "Proud Kikuyu Woman" have swallowed the lie hook, line and sinker and are now propagating it on various websites.

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  24. merican Dollars .........

    So I am now challenging you to come back to Kenya (now .... immediately .... and not when others have died for 'your' socalled brave cause) .....

    Be honest once in our life -

    I am begging you: stop asking for the blood of innocent Kenyan people to be spilt for the crazy ideas of perople like you !!!!

    Kenya and its people deserve something better, don't you think so?

    Please, Hellen, if you had ever some feelings for Kenya, don't continue talking like that.

    You are asking for even more bloodshed - can you really live with something like that for the rest of your life?

    Please - Hellen and Sam Okello - I am wiling to forget the money you owe me - I am willing to forget how you have cheated me ..... but please stop this nonsense - stop this crazy call for uproar and even war ........

    I beg you ,......

    Marianne Briner

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  25. Marianne Briner - is that the Marianne Briner we have come to know? At the moment I am assuming it is some punk being ridiculous.

    Any way, that is beside the point. You need to grow up - in a hurry - and realise that calling for an end to the bloodshed is not enough. Instead, you should be contributing to the debate on how Kenyans can protect their democratic rights now and in the near future.

    OUR COUNTRY HAS DESCENDED INTO A DICTATORSHIP and dictatorships always cause bloodshed - unfortunately.

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  26. What Michuki and Kibaki are doing is simply creating bona-fide martyrs in many parts of Kenya. Strolling down a red blood soaked street is usually an experience not easy to forget. Vengeance is a nasty thing but how long will we continue to see innocent Kikuyus being dragged from their homes and frog matched to Golgotha? How long will we continue to see black crows and other assorted wild birds pecking on human bodies laying outside filled-to-capacity morgues in Kisumu? Since our votes clearly do not count, what is our next resort? Does anyone for one minute imagine that our armed forces will collectively continue to vanquish their own brothers and sister as ordered by Michuki?

    If in future you ever find yourself asking how this could happen in Kenya, remember the disregard of the 16 and 16A forms.

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  27. Thank heavens, the US has withdrawn its congratulatory message to Kibaki. We need friends like these at a time like this!

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  28. Helena, do you know a gentleman called Hosni Mubarak, Sani Abacha or Pervez MUsharaf. Think deep!

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  29. Anonymous or should I not better address you as Jatinga = Hellen Okello?

    Still - I try to stay calm and reply to your obvious personal offence against me as a person:

    calling for bloodshed is easy when you live in the United States, i.e. far way from the suffering Kenyan People. So how can you even dare to talk like that?

    I have called for peace believing and trusting that at the end the Voice of the People will be heard ......

    If you - on the contrary - believe in bloodshed, I am calling you to shed your own blood, the blood of your family ...... are you really willing to do this?

    Or do you prefer to talk because words are cheap ??????????

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  30. The Bush Administration, there is nothing they can tell us. They themselves were announced president after a delayed vote count in Florida. FUCK USA, FUCK AMERICA. RUBBISH AMERICA.

    All these are DIck Morris advice to the opposition if they lose.

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  31. Yes, we have been robbed. This article resonates with me.



    A stolen election


    Leader
    Monday December 31, 2007
    The Guardian


    Halfway through the count in Kenya's presidential and parliamentary elections, the opposition leader, Raila Odinga, was so far ahead - by 700,000 votes - that analysts predicted it would take a minor miracle for the incumbent, Mwai Kibaki, to survive. Last night, that miracle duly came to pass. Mr Kibaki was declared the winner with a comfortable majority, and the pro-opposition shacks in the south of Nairobi went up in flames.

    Article continues

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The result defies more than 50 opinion polls giving Mr Odinga the lead, the fact that more than half of Mr Kibaki's cabinet had lost their seats, and that Mr Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement had won three times as many seats as Mr Kibaki's Party of National Unity. It also defies what EU election monitors saw with their own eyes in one constituency, Molo, where the result declared in their presence was 25,000 votes short of that subsequently announced by the Election Commission of Kenya. As a result, the chief EU observer, Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, pointedly refused to call the election fair and free, saying "some doubt" remained over the accuracy of the result.
    There were other oddities about the count - the unnatural delay in results from Mr Kibaki's heartland, or the impossibly high turnout figures at two polling stations in Mr Kibaki's own Othaya constituency. Within minutes of the result being declared, black smoke was billowing from the Nairobi slum Kibera, and within an hour Mr Kibaki was sworn in again as president at State House. The ceremony was performed with unseemly haste, and in it Mr Kibaki promised to form a government free of corruption. This may be easier to promise than to deliver, because with only 33 seats to his party's name in the 210 member parliament it will have to be a minority government even with the help of other parties. But that is the least of Mr Kibaki's problems.

    This election promised so much, not only to Kenya but to Africa as a whole. It would have been the first time that a Kenyan president would have lost through the ballot box, and the first time an incumbent would have been voted out of office. It would have been, in the best sense of the word, a revolution. Many of the old guard who had dominated politics since independence were swept out of office by a younger generation of politicians who owed their popularity to votes rather than tribal loyality or patronage. Instead. Kenya appeared last night to be stepping back several decades. Deprived of power in the way that his late father - the Luo nationalist hero Oginga Odinga - was, Raila Odinga darkly predicted a stormy future for a nation that could once again split on tribal lines.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/kenya/story/0,,2233590,00.html#article_continue

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  32. Polls kitu gani! Let Raila and his entourage walk the streets of Nairobi. OD supporters never contemplated losing these election and it is about time they faced the reality. Kibaki is the president and he shall continue to be regardless of any ones opinion.

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  33. Oh, and the power of the people is with KIbaki for your information. I can't wait to see what will happen this wednesday.

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  34. @ Anonymous who said: "It is a government for the Kikuyus by the Kikuyus of the Kikuyus. God save kenya.

    KM"

    This is realy stupid to say the least, propagating hating Kikuyus as though that will solve anything. Do you not think that mama mboga hateseki right now because she cannot sell her wares in estates? How has the last govt helped kikuyus more than other tribes? as someone said on these comments kikuyus TOIL just like the other kenyans and now they are bearing the brunt by others who blame them about what is going on. Please control your emotions when attacking a people like that.

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  35. Mwai Kibaki was elected by 4.5 million Kenyans and if anyone doesnt agree with that they can go straight to hell. This hullabaloo is sickening,

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  36. Please - and this call applies to all 'Kumekuchans' whereever you are - please stop this.

    Kenya is your country - don't listen to those living abroad - it's easy for them to talk .........

    But if you ask them to take over your plight, they will very soon shun ......

    I have read the alarming messages of Hellen and Sam Okello here ... and it has very much disturbed me - more than that, it has alarmed me .......

    Because their calls for unrest and choas has brought back some very bad menmories ........

    Its people like them who are responsible for the death and injustice of people without ever taking any responsibility ..

    It's easy to call for violance and uproar when you live in a safe haven, don't you think so?

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  37. Leave the Okellos alone. That is their opinion and there is no problem in them airing their opinion. Democracy and Freeedom of Speech as enshrined in the First Ammendment of the US COnstitution. They live in America by the way.

    -Derek

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  38. Marianne Briner, stop being a coward. you post comments under anon and mention my name and Sam's. This is not personal, but madam, this is not your place!

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  39. Marianne Brinner I told you to go to hell. If you are looking for men this is not the right place. You need to be set ablaze thrown into a bottomless pit. Respect other peolple, old lady!

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  40. Hellen, tuko pamoja kwa maoni yako hapo juu. Much as siagree na opinion zako zingine, ai, huyu masa simuamini hata!

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  41. Marianne Briner, I have avoided responding to your responses save for your direct invitation to get your contacts from Chris. Let me put this in caps- I AM NOT INTERESTED IN ANY CONVERSATION OF WHATEVER FORM WITH YOU. KINDLY LEAVE MY NAME OUT OF YOUR OPINIONS, I DON'T EVEN CARE WHAT YOU THINK.

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  42. PKW, Vikii, Derek, and anon(the crdible one) Thanks for your comments.

    That's what countrymen are for!

    But on a serious note, both ODM and PANUA politicians need to come together to intall the people's president.

    I will run for president in the year 2012 and I want wananchi to believe that their votes will count.(nice joke)

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  43. Hellen, ODM's opponents are PNU please.Not PANUA. That's just a correction.

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  44. In this tense period, we should learn something from the experience of the United States and handle our electoral tension and final outcome with dignity. Granted there have been differences. The exit polls predicted President Kibaki would win and so did Gallup pollsters. Other pollsters predicted a tight race with Mr Raila Odinga ahead. The race was hard and tight and the tension is understandable.

    During the 2000 US Presidential elections, the suspense was even greater than what we are witnessing. However, Americans did not riot, throw stones, break windows, burn houses or challenge policemen. They did not congregate in their capital and town squares. They waited patiently for the counting to be done. Eventually, the final tally was declared and it was a very close election. George W Bush got 50,460,110 votes and Al Gore got 51,003,926, with Bush carrying the Electoral College votes.

    There were no killings and threats of evictions. Americans patiently waited for the courts to determine the case and declare a winner. Once declared, the entire country closed ranks and moved on. Why? Because Americans value political stability more than they value precision democracy.

    Our behaviour at this time will show not only how patriotic we are, but also how democratic we are. In a democracy, protagonists don’t resort to violence to resolve their differences.

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  45. Ombati, you raise an important point n got me wondering about whats (more?) important; democracy, political stability or a good economy?

    Its definitely possible to have all three together, in fact conventional wisdom suggests that the democracy be there before the others can be present. But Newton 'didn't make it back to parliament' Kulundu raised that most important question of how America harps on and on about democracy and human rights when they are torturing humans in Guantanamo. You remember that time when the US ambassador to Kenya even (undiplomatically?) refused to shake Kulundu's hand afterwards?

    China on the other hand is politically stable, and their economy has grown in figures we can only dream about given where they are coming from. But they have poor PR when it comes to democracy and human rights. When China looks like they are more welcome to do business with Africa, the West rushes do demonize them on talking about their poor democracy and human rights record, and how they are the new colonizers of Africa. What do you say, Ombati?

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  46. The level of denial and self-delusion is remarkable. Kibaki's sycophants refuse to believe the elections were rigged. 4.5 million is their favourite figure right now.

    News flash: AMKA! Anyone with a television set would be ashamed to deny there was rigging after seeing all that footage to the contrary.

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  47. MARIANNE BRINER (or the joker that claims he/she is M.B.) take note; if you leave in a democratic country in which elections are free and fair remember that others want the same.

    KENYANS HATE VIOLENCE. THEY ALSO HATE DICTATORSHIPS THAT PUSH THEM TO VIOLENT REACTIONS.

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  48. HELLEN OKELLO: Thanks for your information on the U.S. withdrawal of its congratulatory message.

    The U.S. is the country that gave us Ambassador Smith Hemstone. I am sure he turned in his grave when he heard that message.

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  49. I still maintain that I do not need to listen to what Washington D.C says to form an opinion on what transpired in Kenya. This is not about having TV sets. This is about the validity of the claims raised by the ODM vis-a-vis any moral authority on their part to condemn rigging in the just concluded election. More importantly, it is about any justification for the blood being shed. My opinion, which I plan to hold till the end of time unless anyone convinces me otherwise, is that Ndiwa and Kisumu Rural constituencies have never, in the history of our country, registered voter turn-outs of 93% and 96% respectively. They have never done it and they didnt do it this time round. What that means is that as much as Meru votes were rigged in favour of one candidate, the Luo Nyanza ones were rigged in favour of the other candidate. The electoral Commission should have ironed this out but they didnt. They went ahead and announced Kibaki president who was then duly sworn-in by the Chief Justice. If any party feels aggrieved they need to file a petition with a court of law as a matter of urgency. When the court rules in their favor, we can have a repeat poll between Kibaki and Raila. But the illusions people have that Kibaki will vacate State house and hand the keys over to Raila are of the dangerous proportions. If anybody feels the best way out of this is continued looting, getting shot at and heckling, then I wish them luck. That's all I can say.

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  50. The day Kenyan people will wake up one morning and realise they are Kenyans, will be the day they will start thinking what neo-colonialsm is doing in Kenya at the moment.
    As my friend from the Caribbean told me, black people suffers from the effects of slavery, colonialism and its the high time "21st century" that we address this issue and stop thinking Jaluo, Kikuyu, Kalenjin, Kamba, Kisii the list goes on to Ibo`s and Zulus etc.
    Election only took a day, and the stupidness of uneducated in Kenya sorry to say and Intelectuals abroad have been compromised by two people, Kibaki and Raila "millionaires". They are now spilling poor people’s blood for their own selfishness, greed and power hunger. What do you think they want to accomplish? Protect their ill gotten wealth some of which have been stashed in foreign banks (safe deposits) while poor Kibera voters slaughter one another and others in Eldoret and Nyanza burn their loved neighbours houses, because they are from different tribes. And as we speak, Kibaki and Raila are tossing champagne and shouting loud "cheers". Probably with UK, US and Canadian Ambassadors. They all go to bed together. These guys are crooks, I quote John Kerry when Bush was declared the USA President the second time. After rigging Florida votes where his brother was Governor.

    KENYANS, I PLEAD WITH YOU. LET US WORK, STUDY AND GO BACK TO KENYA AND DEVELOP OUR NATION. KIBAKI IS 76 YRS come on, RAILA 62 YEARS hihi getting there, PLEASE GIVE ME A BREAK. These people have never experienced poverty and the people dying are hardly 30 years old. ARE WE BUILDING OR DESTROYING OUR FUTURE?
    These guys are senile, and the reason i`m saying that is because of the lifestyle they have. Ordinary Kenyans should come together as brothers and sisters and oust these guys out of office and out of our way and take charge of our country.

    They have so much money; they can live wherever they want in this world without working until they die.

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