A reader recently asked me here whether I was now satisfied with the accuracy of the latest Steadmann poll that puts Raila Odinga slightly ahead of Kalonzo Musyoka. My answer is "no."
This is one poll that has failed to capture a lot of things. I am always on the ground carefully monitoring what the wananchi (and the vast majority of voters) have to say and that is why many readers of this blog hardly ever agree with what I have to say. The ordinary people have no idea what a blog is, let alone how to leave a message here telling off some of the elitist commentators we seem to have with us. These elitist commentators with elitist see-no-evil-hear-no-tribal-evil views are hardly those of the ordinary mwananchi of Kenya. They are in fact what the ordinary folk call Wenye nchi (which means the owners of the country.) The Steadmann poll seems to concentrate their sampling amongst this group that I have just called Wenye nchi. Clear evidence is when you consider the views of the majority of those who read this blog. Most are persuaded that the Steadmann polls are fairly accurate.
But I know that the Steadmann polls do not make sense on several fronts. By sheer tribal numbers and arithmetic (because Kenyans have always voted along tribal patterns) they do not make any sense at all.
But there is one more thing that the Steadmann poll always seems to miss. Which in fact the winning side during the referendum took full advantage of which has never been reflected in Steadmann figures. And although much has changed since November 2005, this factor has in fact increased and now is set to affect even the ODM. This factor will greatly affect the outcome of this General election.
This is the anger factor in the Kenyan voter. This anger factor in most Kenyans who are fed up with the way things have gone politically, firstly dramatically decreases President's Kibaki's huge percentage and increasingly bloats the numbers of undecided voters or voters who are yet to decided who they will vote for to be Kenya's Fourth president. Yep, my polls say that Kibaki is not being re-elected if things remain as they are on the ground. So we are waiting for the fourth president of Kenya. And I have some bad news for some of you. It will NOT be Raila Odinga. Mercifully it will not be an 80-year-old ailing grandfather who has lost touch, either.
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There you go again! another mind boggling analysis from the man on the ground -Chris! you are outdoing yourself. You must be the Dr. Gikonyo we never knew! Oh, you forgot to mention that Steadman got it spot on during the referendum.
ReplyDeleteAiling grandfather? You are just showing come ill-concieved tendency. You say numbers and arithmetic. Americans say Math. The people on the ground might be three dillusioned tribesmen who only want to hear what people want to hear. One time, we were drinking in 2002. When we started in Donholm, in a group of Kisii intelectuals, Nyachae has 25% in two provinces, at the time Njoroge Mwaura was rreading the late Night News, he could gather 25% in seven provinces. Are you one of them. On the ground?
ReplyDeletewow, you definately seem to be convinced that you have the pulse of the mwanainchi!!he he he he !!The people will speak so let us leave the looking at the glass to the old ladies.
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