In recent times an interesting and engrossing debate has developed over which direction the Nairobi voters will go. More so after I revealed my recent findings on the ground that Nairobians may not vote on tribal basis after all.
On reader recently boldly announced that Nairobi will more or less easily go to ODM. Yet another reader disagreed and said that Narc Kenya will carry the day easily in Nairobi.
So what is the true situation?
Although it is still very early to tell, there are a few key factors that cannot be ignored. Highest on the list is the fact that Nairobians have felt the negative effects of the Kibaki administration the most. This includes clashes in slum areas like the populous Mathare and Kibera where the vast majority of Nairobi residents live. These incidences have left scores of mostly innocent people dead.
Not to mention the deep resentment and feelings of betrayal that the influential and huge community of city hawkers feel towards the Kibaki administration. These feelings, according to my investigations run so deep that they will not be swayed by tribal affiliations or emotions.
The really exciting thing here is that there is plenty of evidence to show that Nairobi voting patterns have a huge effect on voting trends in the rest of the country. This is probably exactly what is needed for a non-tribal non-politician with a genuine and serious agenda to declare their candidature and steal these elections and snatch the country from the iron-like grip of the political class and ancestors of home guards and collaborators. I make no secret in constantly reminding our readers that this blog is sponsoring such a candidate for the highest office in the land.
The ingenious strategy of one Kenneth Njindo Matiba in the memorable 1992, first multi-party elections comes to mind. Because of his medical condition, which handlers cleverly did not want revealed to the public, Matiba did not have any campaign rallies. Instead he concentrated on a quiet campaign amongst hawkers and matatu crews within Nairobi. The strategy worked so well that it is widely believed that Matiba had the highest number of votes in that election.
Whatever you think about hawkers and touts, this is one group in Nairobi that no political party can dare ignore.
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Chris, I couldn't agree more. It is true that you only ignore hawkers and touts at your political peril. Forget the lofty statistics being bandied around on progress, these are the people who literally move the wheel of development but as the Swahili saying apty captures it 'Asante ya punda ni mateke'.
ReplyDeleteIt takes a shrewd politician to identify a constinuency and stand for it. But an honest look at our so-caaled politicians only leaves you in tears for want to substance. With our commercialized model of politics, the hawkers and touts stand no rummour of a chance to have one of their own who can eloquently represent them elected to parliament.That leaves you with the political pests with deep pockets who once elected will definitely resort to commerce nad other ventures to recoup their campaign money.
Tribalism is so rise in this counttry to near epidemic proportions. Hawkers and touts may appear tribeless at face value, but I fear for the worst what they propagate deep down them. Kamau and Otieno maybe circumstancial happy neighbours in Mathare, but on political front the blood running in their veins is blood laced with tribal vitrol that only betrays their plastic unity of purpose.
What glues hawkers and touts together if the heard mentality to survive. But once they all retire to their respective hovels, the true devil resumes its royal residence in their minds and hearts.
It will take time and an honest re-evaluation of our destinity to confront this malady of tribalism that is slowly driving us into a collective grave. We may have the will with token efforts but all these are washed away at the wave of a political hand. The touts and hawkers will be the lynch mob on hire by the highest tribal bidder.
We can't to resign ourselves to the dogs by throwing our hands in the air lest we remain condemned by future generation for planting and nurturing the seed of self-destruction. We must do all the small things within our powers to appreciate one another and initiate objective change devoid of tribalism. The middle class must wake up and take their righful role in offering leadership instead of being spectators. We get the leaders we deserve, don't we? God save Kenya.
Phil says,
ReplyDeleteTo add to your posts Chris & Taabu, we should not forget the issue of constituency boundaries in Nairobi. Embakassi constituency in Nairobi ought to be divided into no less than 3 new constituencies considering the number of registered voters there. This may also apply to Kasarani, Westlands and Langata constituencies. It doesnt make sense to me that some MPs in Rift Valley and NEP are elected to the house by less than 5000 votes while others get elected by more than 100,000 votes yet both MPs have the same voting powers in the house. Population density and/or size of land mass are things that ought to be considered deeply when reviewing constituency boundaries. Rules governing the nomination of individuals to the house by political parties also ought to be done away with. How will special interest groups and minority communities in Kenya ever get adequate national assembly representation with the current regulations in place? One other proposal I would have is to have a RECALL clause for all MPs, similar to what is available in some countries where residents can recall their MP and elect another if they do not deliver as expected. But will the current group ever pass such a legislation?
And considering the importance of civic bodies in urban centres, I support the president's recent declaration that Mayors and their Deputies will be elected by the residents they represent and be made answerable in some way..
I dont think Nairobi influences the voting patterns in other parts. Look at '92. They went Ford Asili and although Ken had enviable suport everywhere it was not as euphoric as in Nairobi and central. About him winning those elections,that is tru. Matiba won those elections with a landslide. It was a blessing in disguise though that Moi rigged coz Matiba was not equal to the task due to his medical condition. Another example is '97. They voted for DP and ended up being the only ones (Together with central).
ReplyDeletePhil with all due respect we should never think of recalling mps. One good reason is that we will spend all our time and energies doing that. If we had that clause in our constitution,then every year would be an election year. I am sure u dont want it that way. When we go to elections we gotta be extra careful coz it is a five year contract we are getting ourselves into. Sample this: in my constituency there were 6candidates. the mp got about 30% of the total vote. The second guy got 23% percent.If we had such a clause,what would prevent these guys for purely selfish reasons from rallying their supporters (Who total 70%)to reject the mp who may be doing a good job? This situation is replicated in a load of other constituencies. My point is that the idea of recalling mps is just unworkable. It is open to abuse.
Finally Nairobi is about fifty fifty now,as in half and half.
Phil says,
ReplyDeleteThanks Vikii, but a recall clause would not necessarily cause frequent electioneering. In the contrary, it would make MPs accountable and effectively earn their hefty perks. A law has to be put in place which will govern the recall clause. It will list events that culminate into a RECALL. Recalling MPs has to be justified. Right now MPs are not answerable or accountable to anyone.
You remember the nonsensical technical appearances by Ken Matiba in parliament after 1992 elections? How did that help his constituents?