If Elections Were Held Today Many Would NOT Like The Winner

Readers email question to Kumekucha - I am one of those Kenyans utterly convinced that Kenyan voters cannot/will not legitimately elect Uhuru immediately after a ten-year Kikuyu presidency. The presidency in Kenya firmly remains a tribal affair in the eyes of the majority and nothing much has changed regarding that perception over the last decade.

A- I hear what you are saying. It is what I hear from a lot of well educated elitist Kenyans and it makes plenty of sense. I think the problem is that my analysis on kumekucha is based on the facts on the ground and what the vast majority of voters are saying.

Personally I would hate to see another Kikuyu president because it is NOT good for the country for obvious reasons. However the reason why Kumekucha has such an amazing record for predicting political outcomes many months in advance is because I try as much as possible to keep my elitist views and opinions out of what I write.

Let me clarify the facts about Uhuru;

(i) The Kikuyu vote by itself (sheer numbers) is enough to get Uhuru to the run off, more  so because of the crowded field running for the presidency. But my facts on the ground indicate that candidate Uhuru has more support than just the Kikuyu vote. For instance he has solid backing from the extended GEMA bloc.

ii) Raila Odinga's popularity is a mirage that will melt before the eyes of Kenyans. Raila won the 2007 elections by a landslide (according to the figures I got of the real election results). However the votes he got were protest votes against Kibaki and Kikuyu dominance. This time round there will be no protest vote against the Kikuyu and even if there is it will not necessarily go to Raila Odinga.

iii) My facts and figures on the ground agree with what a vast majority of pollsters are saying. That if elections were held today the run off would end up being between Raila and Uhuru. Now when you have a choice of two candidates everything changes. Tribalism is watered down because the electorate have a choice of only 2 candidates. Namely Uhuru and Raila. GEMA are with Uhuru. The Kamba will never vote Raila. Coast province are very pissed off with Raila just now for many reasons. Western Kenya are mostly anti-Raila these days. Let me just stop there because I am sure you get my drift by now.

Political Transfer Window Open, Cold Fireworks

Less than five months to go and the open political window is destined to see more intense activity like never before.

You will here and witness numerous alliances that break even before the handshake is over. Welcome to Kenya's well-known ritual of political prostitution and laundering.

Already we are witness to a flurry of activities seeing engagement of foreign consultants engaged to spin facts. Who said foreigners should leave Kenyans alone?

You won't believe the faces on camera exposing their post molars in delight of forming alliances. Hitherto sworn enemies (sorry opponent is so soft in Kenyan politics) will be trooping to one side singing from both layers of their lips.

The adage no permanent friends nor enemies just permanent interests has never been more apt. Enjoy the show while it lasts.