William “Statehouse punch up” Ruto and his 2012 strategy

Nobody can deny the achievements of Eldoret North legislator William Ruto. Above everything else he is the only person to openly defy President Daniel arap Moi in the Rift Valley and survive to talk about a resounding victory. He is also the only person I know who has been in a fist fight within the precincts of State House (more on that later in this post). Quite a character this Ruto who has recently re-packaged himself for gullible Kenyans...na bado.

William Ruto

In recent days Ruto has been terribly busy marketing his UDM political party in Mombasa where he has already received strong backing from the likes of Chirau Ali Mwakwere and Naomi Shaban.

And so it seems that Ruto will be a major force in the 2012 polls. Or will he be?

There are those who quickly point to Ruto’s massive support in the Rift Valley to prove that the Eldoret North MP will play a major role in deciding who the next occupant of State House will be. Indeed the behaviour of many legislators in the Rift Valley seems to suggest that nobody can challenge the man successfully amongst the Kalenjin community. How many legislators from the region have defied Ruto only to turn up the next day hat in hand and full of apologies?

Hi detractors simply point to the Hague and the battle awaiting Mr Ruto in the hands of the ICC. Hilariously there is a presidential candidate whose main strategy is based on Ruto and Uhuru not being around to challenge him for the presidency, but that is a story for another post.

But assuming he will survive (which I doubt) it is not difficult to figure out the kind of political calculations that may be going on inside the mind of William Ruto. Any presidential candidate who captures Rift Valley is almost there and needs just a little more support from the rest of the country to get enough numbers to get into the run off stage (most political analysts are sure that whatever way one looks at things we will have to go into a run off and so what presidential candidates have to do initially is to go for the numbers first.)

There is another school of thought that suggests that sly Ruto already knows that he stands no chance and is just positioning himself to make deals that will be beneficial to him with those who will emerge as the leading presidential candidates. This is what this blogger suspects is Ruto’s real game plan. There are many reasons for this but top on the list is the fact that financing a serious presidential campaign requires considerable resources. At the end of the day Ruto has consistently ensured that all his calculations have always ended up with more cash in his pocket. There is no reason to suggest why he should have it any different this time round. Ruto is not capable of attracting serious financing and although he is not a poor man it is unlikely that he will want to finance his own presidential campaign. Meaning that all he will do will be to position himself as a leading tribal chief to be courted by every serious presidential candidate for his own financial gain. Remember that this time round there are no cabinet posts to be distributed.

Having said this I will be the first to admit that Ruto is still capable of pulling off surprises, mostly of the nasty kind. This is the man who did the unimaginable in State House, Nairobi a few years ago when he attacked and punched Reuben Chesire, an elderly man who could pass for his father. Ruto had accused the old man of going around and tarnishing his name by telling people that he was a con-man.

Ruto, the democrat was also an official of the youth for Kanu 92 lobby group which dished out so much money to Kenyans in forms of bribes to ensure Moi's re-elected in the first multi-party elections of 1992. The inevitable effects of suddenly increasing money supply was runaway inflation, and was the point at which many Kenyans entered the deep poverty rut they are yet to emerge from today.

The former cabinet minister who was very powerful in a regime that stifled the basic democratic rights of Kenyans like freedom of speech and association told Kenyans at the Coast over the weekend that they should not elect anybody with a suspect past. Hilarious stuff is it not?

Moi and Ruto secrets past and present

Property for sale in Nairobi and Mombasa

Election Date A Secret Weapon Still?

When are we going to the polls?

Now that may sound like a strange question to ask. After all we have hardly implemented the new constitution and the legal infrastructure is definitely not in place for a general election to happen. So surely I am putting the cart ahead of the donkey, am I not?

Not really. Have you not noticed how election campaigns for the presidency have already kicked off in earnest?

The sure sign that the general elections are due sooner than most Kenyans think has been the announcement by Gachoka legislator Mutava Musyimi yesterday that he is vying for the presidency. Musyimi is a meticulous planner and not the kind of person to jump the gun on a whim and go public way too early. His announcement yesterday is a sure sign that elections are just round the corner and sooner than most Kenyans may think.

But what should really concern Kenyans is the recent tendency by politicians and the political class not to say anything to the public about how soon we may be headed to the polls. It evokes memories of retired president Moi who used to use the date of the elections as a political secret weapon to his advantage. Leading presidential contenders are busy criss-crossing the country but are silent on what all the urgency is about. Their behaviour gives them away.

Actually what is happening is that other candidates are frantically trying to cancel out the huge advantage candidate Raila Odinga seems to have. Indeed if elections were to be held today, Raila would start as favourite. In fact the earlier the election dates, the more of an advantage it will be to Raila Odinga.

But as I have said here before, candidates from the old order including people like Raila Odinga, WilliamRuto and Kalonzo Musyoka will suddenly find themselves positioned out of the running as long suffering Kenyans will earnestly seek a clean break from our past. And this is precisely why the front runners for the presidency this time round will be the most unlikely names anybody would expect.

To keep up with times, I will in the next few days start analyzing the kind of presidential candidates that I feel would make excellent possibles for the highest office in the land.