Key indicators about 2012 from the referendum vote

Referendum vote brought us closer to the fourth president of the republic of Kenya. He'll be a lot younger than most analysts want to believe.

The referendum had some fascinating pointers to help observant Kenyans look into the future and spot trends and other things that we are likely to see in the 2012 elections. Already we know that the next general elections in Kenya will be held under a brand new constitution but the referendum also clearly told us that we have some brand new voters and voting patterns that will NOT produce the kind of results we have come to expect from the Kenyan electorate for many years now.

Let me just list some of these key pointers here for your quick perusal

i) Era of Moi politics is well and truly over
For me the most delightful thing about the referendum was that it proved beyond any doubt that the era of Moi-style politics is truly over. There is no doubt that president Moi was the leader of the No camp and the tactics used by this group are the kind that would have assured them victory just a few years ago. The Uhuru park bombing was supposed to swing the public mood in the opposite direction so that Kenyans should have quickly lost all appetite for a new constitution if it meant regular blood-shed of this kind. Instead the bomb which killed at least half a dozen Kenyans only increased the resolve of most Kenyans to get a new constitution. And after all as John Githongo quite rightly points out, constitutions are usually written in blood.

Secondly Moi has always thrived on spreading lies and using scare tactics on unsuspecting ignorant Kenyans and during the referendum both Moi and Ruto used lies to turn some Kenyans against the proposed constitution. Moi has repeatedly told Kenyans that the new constitution allows Military personnel to picket and go on strike (what constitution in the world can allow that?). William Ruto’s most effective lie was the one where he convinced many Rift Valley farmers that the new constitution would limit land ownership to only 10 acres per person. While it is true that many votes were gained in this way, in the end the vast majority of Kenyan voters saw through the lies and scare tactics and firmly rallied behind a document that will change Kenya forever. This is very scary to those politicians who have always thrived on the ignorance of voters. And quite rightly so because we are going to see some shocking results in 2012 (or sooner).

ii) Referendum confirmed reality of young restless voters
For better or for worse the baton has been passed on to the younger generation of Kenyans. These voters will quickly abandon party lines if there is the slightest reason for them to do so. We saw this happen in the Matuga by-election with devastating consequences. Matuga is an interesting constituency because it has a voter profile that is very different from the rest of the country in that the majority of registered voters are senior citizens. These people firmly rallied behind the incumbent Ali Mwakwere. The vast majority of the young people were solidly behind the ODM challenge to Mwakwere. However at the very last minute they abandoned their candidate and voted for Mwakwere. The reason was that their candidate was boring, had zero charisma and hardly gave voters any reason to vote for him apart from the fact that he was an ODM candidate. We saw the same devastating trend played out right across the country during the referendum. Many conservative older Kenyans voted against the draft but the youngsters of Kenya had no doubt on their minds what they wanted. Interestingly even youths from many churches across the country defied their church leadership and voted YES. Woe unto you if you are an old boring candidate in 2012. Woe unto any candidate in 2012 who will quickly find out how unpredictable the young and restless can be.

iii) Vote confirmed Ruto’s reduced influence in the Kalenjin Rift Valley
Clearly a lot has changed in the Rift Valley since 2007 and William Ruto’s influence has reduced considerably. Hardly surprising for thpose who understand the Kalenjin community. These guys have historically been known to very quickly and emotionally shift their stance. This is the community that put its’ own leader to death for making a prediction that they would be defeated by the coming race of the White man. The name of that leader was Kimnyole the Nandi leader (Orkoiyot) who is best remembered for the amazingly acurate prophecies that he made one of which he died for. He clearly predicted the coming of the “devils” who would subdue the Nandi community and rule them. The Nandis recognized the British as the “devils” that Kimnyole predicted would rule them and fought them vigorously in a vain effort to ensure that the prophecy would not come to pass. Kimnyole was stoned to death on suspicions that he had caused famine in the land. However the real reason was that his prophecy on the Nandi being subdued upset powerful tribal elders. But before he was executed he summoned his sons and made them promise him that they would never accept any positions of leadership amongst this crazy community. One of his sons, Koitalel Samoei, did not keep that promise and is today considered the greatest leader and Orkoiyot that the Nandi ever had. One of his achievements is that his military genius enabled the community to resist the well armed Colonialists for 11 long years which has to be a record unmatched in the entire British empire of the time.

But back to my main point here. The significant thing here is that prospective MPs, Senators and governors will not need to get a Ruto nod to win elections in the region. The situation could of course dramatically change if Ruto stands trial at the Hague.

iv) Referendum proved that it will be very difficult to rig an election in Kenya in future.
Not many people came across some leaked confidential projections produced by retired president Moi at the No secretariat that showed the No side would win by a very slim margin of about 3,839,877 votes to the Yes camp’s 3,753,994. The breakdown is fascinating and brings out Moi’s specialty in rigging elections that saw him easily rig both the 1992 and the 1997 general elections in his favour. The idea is to come a close second in some areas whiole accumulating votes in other regions where you are not popular. But these extra votes tend to add up. In the Moi projections for the referendum the No side won ONLY in Eastern and Rift Valley while the Yes team won everywhere else and yet the No side still emerged victorious. With the new system of transmitting results directly from the 27,000 polling stations countrywide, rigging elections in Kenya will not be so easy in 2012. A great relief to most Kenyans.

v) Voting patterns excited Raila Odinga handlers BUT…
Raild Odinga handlers would like to think that the person who should get most credit for the YES win is their man. A neutral young prospective presidential candidate for 2012 recently told me that the vote proved that Raila would be the man to beat. I disagree. In my view things were a lot more complex than that and there were numerous different reasons why people voted YES as is the case with the NO votes. Even in Luo Nyanza there were many different reasons why people voted YES and not simply because Raila said so, as many would like to think. Folks I keep saying that era is well and truly over and those who doubt will be shocked in 2012. What the referendum voting patterns told me is that a young charismatic Kenyan with no clear relation to any particular tribe in Kenya will have a great chance to win the presidency in 2012 against all odds.

Even those who consider themselves superior to "stupid" Africans learnt a lot from Kenyan referedum vote

Deadly Daniel Mirrors Terrible Taylor

President Kibaki, please detain Moi, Kumekucha begs

If we were operating in the old days, now would be a very good time to detain one Daniel arap Moi (without trial or due process) for being a serious threat to peace in Kenya, let alone the security of the state. That is one detention order I would sign for President Kibaki with great pleasure and never lose any sleep over it. But alas lucky Daniel after 24 years of misrule, the dirtiest Machiavellian tricks, and detaining people endlessly for the flimsiest reasons, now has the audacity to use the expanded democratic space to ensure that Kenya fails to move on to the new Canaan.

Dirty Daniel: "New constitution Itachoma nyinyi."

Sample the following. The day after Kenyans firmly voted in favour of the new constitution all was quiet and peaceful in the land until Moi released a statement urging the clergy not to apologise and NOT to give up on their fight against the “contentious issues”. Being the experienced politician he is, he naturally send feelers to all the relevant clergy and people involved and the next day a fresh row over the new constitution was brewing that rages on as you read this post. It mainly revolves around the No camp staying together to force changes on the constitution even before it is implemented.

…And that is just the beginning. This old man will do EVERYTHING AND ANYTHING to ensure that somehow the new constitution is diluted, side-tracked or prevented from being fully and properly implemented. His entire future and that of his family depends on it.

Without a doubt, most political analysts now agree, the biggest stumbling block now to a peaceful Kenya as we shift to a new constitutional dispensation is former dictator president of Kenya, Daniel Toroitich arap Moi. And what a dangerous foe the man is as he has already proved. Let us not talk about the tell-tale similarities of the Uhuru Park bombings to bombings that happened during the Moi watch and earlier during the Kenyatta days. (Incidentally this was a tactic that failed badly but you can be sure that those behind it will not be deterred from trying other things, even violent stuff). But clearly it is difficult to fight against the former owner of a house on the premises because he still knows where all the hidden trap doors and potholes are.

Those who may still doubt Moi’s commitment to derailing real change in Kenya just need to take a closer look at what the old man spent on the No campaign. One estimate puts the figure at a whooping Kshs one billion. Even the most conservative estimates say that the former president spent NOT less than Kshs 5 million per day. Now those who know Moi well are well aware of the fact that he can hardly be described as a generous man. While it is true he loved to dish out money when he was president the truth is that he had dozens of ways to “create cash” at short notice for his endless political “projects.” In other words it was NOPT his money he was being generous with. Now that he is no longer in power, his true colours have come out. And that is why the kind of spending Moi did to stop the new constitution from happening should and must cause all the warning bells to ring loudly in alarm because here is a man who is extremely desperate to stop something from happening. And desperate people usually do desperately dangerous things.

An interesting aside here is some of the recipients of Moi’s cash. It seems that we now have a new breed of “politicians for hire” who are ready to sing any tune for cash. Top on that list are former legislators Kalembe Ndile and Koigi Wamwere. Wamwere’s case is the saddest. After years of fighting for change in Kenya, risking his life several times, the man is now ending his political career meekly accepting the man who detained and harassed him to make jokes about why he detained him at public rallies, as long as he can receive handouts to keep his expensive habits happening as he waits to find a way back to parliament. How sad because Wamwere is the kind of guy who would have deserved to be buried in the hero’s corner when he finally departs from this earth. Now he will be a mere footnote whom history will treat rather harshly. While cowards during the Moi era like President Kibaki will be hailed as heroes of the struggle for his big push to deliver a new constitution to Kenya as president. Life is really unfair, is it not?

In my next post I will reveal some of things to expect from Moi’s rather bulky bag of tricks which he is set to unleash on unsuspecting Kenyans in the weeks and months to come.

P.S. I agree with Nzamba Gitonga, chair of the COE, when he says there are NO contentious issues in the new constitution and if they were any, they were resolved by the referendum. I would add that what some people are saying are contentious issues are concerns from landgrabbers and some church leader's dissapointment that the constitution will not help them in doing their job of fighting sin in the world.