Kumekucha changes his position: Why Ruto will fell Raila

I have no problem with constructive criticism. Most people think that I concede too easily and too quickly at the earliest sign that I have been proved wrong. If you ask me most people never want to be proved wrong and can argue for hours just to maintain appearances and an image of never being wrong. That is really sad because learning becomes almost impossible with such a kindergarten attitude.

Anyway I am writing this post to change my position on the ongoing Raila/Ruto war. Earlier I said that I believed that Ruto will go down first. Now I am writing to say that Raila will go down first.

I used history to write my last post and somebody challenged me with the same history to prove me wrong. I have dug deep into my history books and I have no option but to agree with them. I firmly believe that history always repeats itself; I have seen it happen too many times.

Let me give you the historical facts and arguments presented to me.

On 26th June 1958 Oginga Odinga (father to Raila Odinga) made his famous “Kenyatta tosha” move in parliament (Legco). He did this by doing what was then “unthinkable”. In a speech he later referred to as “his bombshell in the house” he said that those convicted in Kapenguria were “still the real political leaders” of Africans in Kenya. He singled out Jomo Kenyatta and compared him to Makarios, the then exiled leader of Cyprus. Makarios was a religious leader and it was obvious that Odinga was elevating Kenyatta to almost godly status. The colonial government did not mince any words and governor Sir Evelyn Baring made it clear that the government had no intention of allowing Kenyatta to return to active politics even if he were released. But the political impact on the ground was huge (just as Odinga had intended) and Raila’s dad had set in motion a chain of events that would give the presidency to Kenyatta on a silver platter.

It was clear what had motivated Odinga senior. It was his deep hatred for the much younger Luo called Tom Mboya who had outsmarted him at every turn. He could not stand the idea of watching the young upstart climb to power and loathed the idea so much that he preferred a Kikuyu to his own tribes-mate.

More importantly in retrospect, Odinga launched tribal politics in Kenya for the first time. He chose Kenyatta because Kenyatta was a Kikuyu and he knew that the bedrock of Mboya’s support in his Nairobi constituency were the Kikuyu. Odinga senior was to play this tribal card again and again in his political battles against Mboya who firmly remained a nationalist to the bitter end.

My critic says that Odinga seniors’ motivation was exactly the same as that of Raila in rejecting Uhuru Kenyatta as the presidential candidate for Kanu in 2002. Raila chose Mwai Kibaki not because he liked him but to frustrate the youngster Uhuru from ascending to the presidency. Like his dad he could not bear to see the youngster rise to power above him while he watched. Hence the “Kibaki tosha” statement that gave the presidency on a silver platter to the Kikuyu once again and this time round to one Mwai Kibaki.

Back to Odinga senior; the relationship with Kenyatta was warm and cordial at first and he was even appointed Kenya’s first Vice president. However Jaramogi Oginga Odinga quickly got disillusioned and frustrated by the Kenyatta administration of thieves who never saw any prime land they did not want to grab. The Kenyatta administration was quick to identify Odinga and the Luo community as a serious threat and many lives were saved and chaos averted because of this wisdom in Kenyatta and his close advisors.

Mwai Kibaki took a much longer time to realize that Raila was a threat after the initial honeymoon had ended. As late as a few months to the presidential elections of 2007 many Kibaki advisors were saying that Kenyans would never elect “an Luo Kihehe (uncircumcised)” to the presidency. This lack of foresight is what led to the chaos and blood shed that will be the Kibaki legacy long after he is gone.

Kenyatta identified Tom Mboya as the man he would use to neutralize the Odinga threat. Kibaki has identified Ruto as the man to use to neutralize the Raila threat to him and his administration. Mboya won and so will Ruto.

Jaramogi Oginga Odinga remained very powerful and influential amongst the Luo people but was powerless because he had been forced out of mainstream national politics. I now believe that exactly the same thing will happen with Raila. He will remain very influential in Luo Nyanza politics but will fade out of national politics.

Mboya was killed and elevated to cult status as a result of his death. I believe Ruto will be removed from the scene and end up in some prison cell which will elevate him to cult status amongst the Kalenjin. It is not too dfficult to imagine the Kalenjin talking about Ruto in the same awed tones as they still talk about their military hero and leader Koitalel arap Samoei. Ironically one of Ruto’s names is Samoei. Read all about this amazing Kalenjin secrets in my earlier post. Read This one first.

Away from history there are some telling pointers on the ground that point to a Raila downfall in the very near future.

For starters he has made the same mistake Mwai Kibaki made in 2005 in thinking that he would still win the referendum for a new constitution he had crafted with Wako, with the big landowners of Kenya on the opposing side. Have you ever wondered why the Kenyattas, Mois etc were so firmly against the new constitution (redrafted by Wako)? It was the simple matter of what that draft had to say about land policy and a truth and reconciliation commission. In simple language passing that new constitution in 2005 would have meant that the Kenyattas Mois etc would have ended up losing their vast tracts of land (and thus wealth).

If Raila sees the Mau evictions to their logical end, one of the biggest losers (apart from William Ruto himself) will be former president Daniel arap Moi and his sons. The Kenyattas are very worried because after Mau other parcels of land countrywide are sure to follow. While it is important for Kenya and Kenyans that Raila wins this gallant fight, the political reality is that he cannot. He is already a marked man. Give the powerful landowners of Kenya a few weeks and their money will have done its work and gathered enough votes in parliament to easily pass a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister. But before that the president will appoint a new leader of government business in the house and Raila will no longer have the clout in the house to reject the appointment this time.

Folks ODM is dead and no matter what Steadman polls say, Raila is no longer the formidable national political figure he was in 2007. If you can’t hear what I am saying, then please try and read my lips ODM IS DEAD AND BURIED!!!

K-Whatever Alliance: Will it Survive the Coming Tsunami?

Why Matiba and Rubia Are Disgusted By Some MPs of the 10th Parliament

One thing I always admired in Kenneth Matiba was his slogan kuuga na gwika. Loosely translated from his native language, this means walking the talk. Matiba, then a throughly frustrated cabinet minister in late eighties courtesy of the then KANU Organising Secretary, quit the then ruling party KANU in a huff – something that was unheard of in those days of single party dictatorship. Matiba and Charles Rubia went on to create an alliance that campaigned for repeal of section 2a of the constitution, and this eventually led to their painful detention without trial. But ultimately, Moi, then strongly supported by some leaders still at the scene today, finally caved in to the pressure that these two gallant Kenyans started and allowed multi-party democracy in Kenya. In the earlier years, when most of the current chest thumping Rift Valley MPs were still enjoying free Nyayo milk at primary school, the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, the late George Moseti Anyona and many others had also tried to register their own political parties but they also ended up in detention courtesy of fimbo ya Nyayo.

Many other patriotic Kenyans have walked the talk or kuuga na gwika like Matiba would put it. This list cannot be complete without one Raila Odinga – who was incidentally also detained without trial for the umpteenth time - after he was joined by Matiba and Rubia to champion calls for multi-party democracy in the late eighties. Later on, Raila Odinga also quit the then leading opposition party FORD-K in 1997 to little known National Development and six months later run for president emerging 4th in an election that was rigged in favour of Moi and KANU. Kuuga na gwika!

The freedom of speech that many Kenyans now enjoy is owed to the efforts of these Kenyans who at one time or another put their lives on the line to fight the Moi autocracy.

The current pretenders to the throne masquerading as provincial representatives of Central, Rift Valley, Coast and Lower Eastern, pale in comparison when put on under the same microscope with the likes of Matiba, Anyona or Odinga. Charles Rubia must be exhausted at switching off TV channels and shaking his head in disgust whenever the press cameras go to a funeral in Rift Valley. The current crop of Rift Valley MPs are certainly no match for a lady who was elected as the first woman MP from Rift Valley and who was known as Chelagat Mutai. This lady was among those who dared to challenge the Kenyatta regime when the president’s word was law. We dearly miss this gallant daughter of Kenya! These current MPs have completely abused the freedom of speech that those of us who have walked the painful road of democratizing this country laboured for.

Today, although the politics of Kenya has evolved from what it was in the KANU era, it is still not apparent to the Panafric Hotel party goers that politics is now issue driven. Luckily, even a village peasant in rural Kenya knows this and this is why some of them are lining up to voluntarily return irregular MAU title deeds and also register the Mau secretariat. Some rookie MPs are refusing to accept this obviously acting at the behest of their status quo benefactors.

These MPs led an assembly at Panafric Hotel under the guise of raising funds as aid and humanitarian assistance to Mau Forest IDPs. But because many Kenyans do know that most of those who were at that so called future high table, including the convenor of the fund raiser, are themselves owners of huge tracts of illegally acquired land, some of which they have sold on to unsuspecting members of the public. In reality, the fundraiser was itself a total failure when looked at from a political angle. No wonder Moi is asking them to go back to KANU and take lessons on how to play premiership politics!

To add insult to injury, a quick follow-up of the of the Panafric fundraiser with successive public rallies in Lugari and Kwale to drum up support for the new K-whatever alliance ended disastrously when they were totally snubbed by the locals leaders and wananchi. Clonning the ODM Pentagon is no easy task especially if you omit the well known common denominator that brings the mwananchi to his rallies and his party.

Ironically during the same weekend, the Prime Minister was addressing a massive rally in Kibera's Kamukunji grounds in which he dared the land grabbers of yesteryears to quit the government if they were men enough. The prime minister was inferring to a situation where ministers unanimously adopt government policy today only to run back to funerals tomorrow to disown the same policies they helped create and adopt! Political observers also took note that the PM could be re-constituting yet another history making politburo when he declared that yet another tsunami is coming to wipe all the trash into the sea. Older Kumekucha bloggers know that in politics timing is everything and the time comes, it will be revealed here very promptly. Watch this space!

Despite all the disgust, the Rt Hon PM still found time to share a drink with us patriotic citizens at the popular Birongo Square (Nairobi West) after watching the Harambee Stars versus Zambia game. It was indeed a candid sitting in which we told the PM to keep up the efforts at reclaiming our valued water tower! Clearly the PM ridding on the back of huge public support judging by the pandemonium he caused at the busy shopping center.

The last one week has been a very humbling experience for the so called future leaders. The message they have received from churches, mosques, FM call-in programs, newspapers and other public forums is that they are now deemed to be promoters of impunity, betrayers of the Kenyan dream and a liability to the reform process that is already underway. In fact, the MAU land baron’s threats to introduce an ill-advised motion of no confidence against the prime minister has apparently suffered a painful still-birth after it received no support, even from the same crowd that gathered at Panafric. Suddenly, some Rift Valley MPs find themselves very lonely and very afraid. I think they will be totally shocked at what will happen to their already declared presidential candidate come 2012.

When the rest of country is brainstorming the all important Harmonised Darft Constitution, it is truly sad that some sections of society want to treat us to useless KANU era theatrics. It churns one’s stomach when we see that these are the same characters who are serving as Kenya’s VPs, DPMs, and Ministers.

Shindwe kabisa hiyo pepo mbaya.