Vision 2030: Reality or Mirage?

President Mwai Kibaki flanked by PM Rt. Hon. Raila Odinga, VP Hon. Kalonzo Musyoka and Minister for Planning Hon. Wycliffe Oparanya unveils the Vision 2030 Logo after he officially launched the vision and its First Medium Term plan at KICC, Nairobi.

Government of Kenya launches the most ambitious development plan since independence

The Kenya Vision 2030 has finally been launched after the successful harmonization of the 2007 pre-election manifestos of ODM, PNU and ODM-K, which are the three main political parties forming the grand coalition government. The vision is planned to be implemented via 5 year medium-term rolling plans that will run concurrently with electoral cycle, and the first phase starts from June 2008 to 2012.

According to an upbeat Planning Minister - Wycliffe Oparanya - the government plans to invest a staggering Kshs1.6 trillion (approx. US$25.2 billion) over the next five years so as to transform Kenya into a middle-income earner in the next 22 years. In other words, Kenya wants to play in the same league as the famed Asian ‘tigers’ – all very laudable.

Information released yesterday indicate that Vision 2030 development plan is based on what the government calls three "pillars" namely; economic, social and political pillars. I must admit however, I have not exhaustively read the full version but sneak previews reveal that:

The ECONOMIC PILLAR aims at providing prosperity of all Kenyans by the year 2030. In conservative terms, and this is the target government has given itself, Kenya must achieve a GDP growth rate of 10% per annum for the next 25 years beginning next year! Bearing in mind that the growth rate for the last five years was somewhere between 2% to 6% (and these are Kimunya’s figures), and that even the current rate is expected to reverse back to 4% as effects of the post election skirmishes sink in, is a 10% growth rate really feasible within the next financial year? Unlikely I say, and even if Kenya achieves this, is it sustainable?

The SOCIAL PILLAR seeks to build “a just and cohesive society with social equity in a clean and secure environment” whereas the POLITICAL PILLAR aims at “realising a democratic political system founded on issue-based politics that respects the rule of law, and protects the rights and freedoms of every individual in the Kenyan society” – again all very laudable...... after all this is what ODM has been trying to teach PNU ever since the NARC/LDP days when they were busy hatching anglo-leasing deals!

Even to the most optimistic Kenyan, it is hard to imagine that Kenya as a country will actually raise the prerequisite investment, maintain political stability and achieve national cohesion all of which are required to pave the roadmap to the year 2030. And why not, one may ask?

Well, for a country led by such self serving politicians who are also anti-reform, this plan is already doomed even before it starts. It is obvious even to a casual observer that the GCG is teetering at the edge of breaking down. Just two days ago, senior ODM member and cabinet minister called a press conference in the company of Spokesman Salim Lone and warned the PNU partner to ‘tread carefully’.

Before Ntimama’s warning could be digested, the bitterly contested parliamentary by-elections in five constituencies were already scheduled and are underway as I type these lines. The very strange coincidence here is that ODM lost two of those seats in the most violent manner earlier this year. These murders are still unresolved! The third had to be annulled when ODM was in the lead and a hired mob barricaded the counting hall while the fourth, in one of the strangest coincident and in what should be the world’s first, was called a ‘tie’ when the ECK announced the elections results. Only the fifth was voluntarily given up by ODM. As if this is not enough, two ODM members died yesterday in a yet to be explained aircraft accident. What is so wrong about being an ODM MP? Are they ‘marked’ men and women or these deaths are mere coincidences? My take is that 10% economic growth rate and foreign direct investment running into billions of dollars hardly ever comes when only ODM MPs are dying like flies. What’s your take?

On top of this political minefield, even the minister Oparanya conceded, Kenya has still to overcome humongous challenges such as high unemployment, widespread poverty, gross inequalities in income distribution and development disparities in different regions of the country and gender inequalities. One wonders whether ODM (then LDP) was talking to walls during the initial years of the NARC regime because these are the same issues that have always been highlighted on the national agenda, and are the force behind calls for a peoples’ driven reform process!

It has taken a bungled election, over a thousand five hundred deaths and massive displacements to harmonize these manifestos. Hopefully this time, ODM (Chungwa Moja Maisha Bora) is in partnership with reasonable gentlemen!

Why Is Murder In The Air?

Murder it seems is in the air.

Some people seem to have gotten pretty upset with this blogger for reasons that are still unclear and this comes shortly after threats on his life. Then yesterday something horrible happened that we can not speculate about yet. Two high ranking government ministers were killed in an air crash. (see earlier posts).

Finally there is this murder enquiry nobody seems to be interested in (but mark my words is related to the reason why there seems to be murder in the air in Kenya.)

I hate to say I told you so about this murder, but Kenyans need to wake up pronto.

Investigations by the Kenya Police into the murder puzzle of photojournalist Trent Keegan seem to have hit a blank wall, sources close to the investigators revealed yesterday.

It emerged that investigations into the murder of the Irish national who was born in New Zealand, which are being carried out by Nairobi’s Central Division Criminal Investigations Department, have failed to unearth his killer(s) and the motive behind the killing.

Although detectives have questioned several people in trying to piece together Mr Keegan’s last moments, they appear to have no credible clues that could resolve the murder mystery.

Consequently, detectives have reverted to their original theory that the 33-year-old Keegan could have been knocked down by a hit and ran motorist, the sources said.

The photojournalist’s lifeless body was found dumped in a ditch in Kenya’s capital city of Nairobi on the morning of May 27 and it had visible head and hand injuries. A wallet which contained some dollar bills and a driving licence bearing his photo were intact in his pocket. Police identified him using the documents and the photograph.

In keeping with their tradition, the Kenyan police quickly came up with a theory that the world-renowned photojournalist could have been killed by a hit and ran car. They came up with the theory even before they had carried out any investigations into the circumstances surrounding the death.

Many killers in Kenya often get away with the crimes they had committed because the Kenya Police are notorious for jumping into hasty conclusions even before they have carried out investigations into a crime or due to sloppy investigations.

The murder was given a lot of attention by the international media. Surprisingly, the mainstream media like Daily Nation, The Standard, The Kenya Times, People Daily, NTV, KTN, KBC, Citizen TV etc gave it a blackout. The Daily Nation could only afford a news brief after the body was discovered but there were no subsequent follow ups. Only the popular Kumekucha has kept the story alive.

But after it emerged that Mr Keegan was a renowned international journalist, the Kenyan police hurriedly changed their mind regarding the car accident theory and promised to pursue a murder angle.

“We are treating the case as murder,” police spokesman Eric Kiraithe was quoted saying then. “It does not appear to have been a robbery. If it was a robbery, the logical thing is that the robbers would have also taken his money. Let us not speculate.”

Police sources yesterday told Kumekucha that detectives appeared to have relaxed in their investigations when the murder failed to excite local journalists and their media houses and they had no one to pressurise them into action. Kenya Police are known for their laziness and shoddiness in carrying out investigations and the blackout the crime got from the local media was their blessing.

During the funeral service for the photojournalist, Mr Keegan's "little big sister" Nikki McKinnon, said they had received numerous offers of help to find out what happened to her brother and she was confident they would soon know the circumstances surrounding his death.

She said the New Zealand Consulate in Nairobi was liaising with the Nairobi police but as yet they had no new information.

As it is a common phenomenon with other homicides in Kenya, Mr Keegan’s killers might roam the streets for the rest of their lives as they continue committing other string of heinous crimes with impunity.

Even if Mr Keegan was killed by a car, why haven’t the police arrested the motorist and arraigned him in court? There is no doubt that police are either unwilling to pursue the murder theory to its logical conclusion or they are incapable of carrying out professional investigations like a modern police department.

Extra: Safaricom shares

It looks like today is my I-told-you-so day.

Safaricom shares started off at Kshs 8 and have now dropped to Kshs 6.70cts the last time I checked. My prayer is that the rest of my prediction does NOT come true. I will be delighted to be wrong on that one.