Party of the Year: Raila’s Homecoming

The Kibaki succession soap opera is expected to move a notch higher this weekend when ODM captain and the man many people widely believe defeated Kibaki at the presidential poll, Raila Odinga, heads to Nyanza and Western Provinces to host a series of significant events at his rural homes in Nyanza in celebrating his homecoming.

According to sources privy to the arrangements, the ODM has laid down elaborate plans for Raila’s homecoming ceremony expected to run for the entire coming weekend from May 10 to 12, culminating with putting in an appearance at the home of the Minister for Fisheries Development, Mr. Paul Otuoma in Funyula, Western province. The guest list reads like who-is-who in Kenya’s political and business circles. The entire ODM pentagon, the party’s NEC, the yet to be disbanded presidential campaign team and a distinguished mix of local and overseas visitors are expected to grace the occasion including the flamboyant Ukambani politican John Harun Mwau. Unconfirmed reports indicate that the Guest of Honour will be none other than President Mwai Kibaki. Although the V-P Kalonzo Musyoka has been officially invited, he is unlikely to attend and risk being fried alive (read: embarrassed) by Ngilu and Mwau who are his Ukambani political archrivals, not to mention prospects of facing the thousands Raila’s fanatical supporters drawn mainly from Kondele and Obunga slums who, unlike IDPs in Eldoret, have nothing to lose and will not hesitate to heckle the V-P who is deemed as a man who has been out to politically frustrate ODM.

Not since the NDP/KANU merger rally in Kisumu a decade ago has the region witnessed such momentous organization. A committee that includes the Kisumu Mayor and the Nyanza OCPD has been meeting regularly to ensure everything goes according to plan. Hotels and commercial flights to Kisumu are fully booked for the weekend although a good number of guests are expected to land at Kisumu airport in personal and chartered aircraft.

The region is currently bracing itself to give ‘their son’ a thunderous homecoming following his well planned and highly publicized but abortive presidential bid. To the people of Nyanza, the president will hardly visit the area unless he is coming for official state functions. Things were not made easier for the president that his relations with Raila were not the best ever since the collapse of the NARC coalition following the trashing of the MOU. The president himself, as candidate in 2007, did not campaign in the area and even his own lieutenants planned but completely failed to address a single campaign rally in the Luo Nyanza region.

Political observers opine that these homecoming events are just but political rallies aimed at flexing political muscles. High on the agenda at Raila’s homecoming, will be the explosive issue of the still unresolved pecking order in the higher echelons of government.

Interestingly Ababu Namwamba, the ODM MP for Budalangi, and a long time admirer/supporter of Raila Odinga, yesterday successfully sort and got permission to introduce a bill in parliament aimed at establishing an official opposition. Although Raila himself has on several occasions spoken against forming an official opposition in a grand coalition, Raila is not - by all means - a politician who was born yesterday and he very well may be the one behind the clever actions of one Ababu Namwamba. ODM’s unfinished business (read: taking over the reins of power in Kenya) is still well within grasp; and despite the diplomacy and smiles exhibited by its leaders some of whom are now in cabinet, the ultimate goal of the party is to ensure that it becomes the ruling party in Kenya – on or before December 2012. In prevailing circumstances, there is no other way in toppling this government except through parliament where incidentally, the party has significant control through both the Speaker and Deputy Speaker's posts.

Many people doubt this, but anxiety in PNU has not gone unnoticed by keen political observers. The forthcoming by-elections in 5 constituencies are due in a month and they will be a litmus test for the stability and future of the grand coalition cabinet. President Kibaki’s PNU (which in reality does not have a single MP in the house) is a coalition that exists only by name and is nowhere near assembling its campaign machinery for the forthcoming mini-general elections. Looking at the agenda 1,2,3&4 on the Annan peace roadmap, it really reads like ODM’s 2007 manifesto. DPM and ODM Vice Captain Musalia Mudavadi led the ODM delegation to the Annan talks and the agenda was obviously because of their influence.

It therefore should not surprise any Kenyan that the ODM is behind the moves to create an official opposition in parliament even though its leaders are serving in government as cabinet ministers. The reality is that the opposition will have much more liberty to propagate party policies, oppose legislation umwanted by ODM as well as expose government scandals because ODM cabinet ministers are tied by the draconian oath of collective responsibility in cabinet!

Raila arrived back in the country earlier this week, after a spell in South Africa, where he met with the anti-apartheid icon Nelson Mandela, his wife Graca as well as the leader of Zimbabwe's Movement for Democratic Change, Morgan Tsvangirai. Prior to that, he had been in Germany, where he had undergone laser eye surgery.


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How Long Can The Grand Coalition Government Survive?

Have you ever fallen in love? Aii. It is some feeling. It happened to me slightly over 20 years ago and no I didn’t end up getting married to her. But I know she reads Kumekucha sometimes and chances are high that she will read this post.

And she will know that I am telling the whole truth and nothing but the truth when I say that the reason why it did not work out was NOT my fault. It took me a long time to get over it. Too long. But I survived. After going through all that, would you want to fall in love again?

By the way, you’re not on the wrong site friend, I am talking in parables kidogo and I am focusing on our grand coalition government “marriage” saga.

Now this is one strange marriage. Both the guy and the chic had sworn that they would share the same bed only as corpses, let alone get duly married as they are now. But life is strange and this guy from Ghana came along and sweet talked the two into a marriage of convenience. Now let me tell you something you might not know about this chap from Ghana. To be Secretary General of the UN, one of the requirements is that you must be able to speak at least two major languages fluently, like English and French. So Kofi Anan is quoted as having replied to a question to do with the second language he speaks thus;

“I know it so well that they tell me these days that I speak English with a French accent.”

Anyway I digress. So this sweet talking guy who can speak both English and French like the natives of those countries, got down to work. The couple was offered all sorts of bribes, if only they could tie the knot. One thing both PNU and ODM friends can agree with me here is that there was no love in this marriage, and actually there has never been. What has always been very visible and evident instead is the intense hatred the two have for each other.

I can authoritatively report that even the sex in this marriage is a disaster. I mean for newly weds, this couple are doing very, very, very badly indeed. Usually at this stage, the parties cannot keep their hands off each other. But with this unique couple they have to make a timetable for sex and many times on mutual agreement they miss their sex dates altogether. Can you believe that? We know that men can do it anywhere but the woman has never come anywhere near… you know what on the few occasions that something has actually happened. And please don’t ask me who the man is and who the woman is in this marriage. The latest is that a special “bonding session: has now been called which will start tomorrow at the Kenya School of Monetary studies and will feature the full coalition cabinet.

Kenyans are a conservative lot so for the sake of all those dear readers of mine who have read this far and are disgusted, let me revert back to the political language they understand best.

It is now clear that the grand coalition government is not going to survive for much longer. And the reason is simple. This couple are just not compatible. Period. Can you believe that they are not even able to steal together in peace?

High on the list of things the two do not agree on is the explosive red hot issue of the resettlement of the IDPs. Now before I give you an illustration of a major point of disagreement between the coalition partners, allow me to digress again a little.

I want to tell you the two most people-sensitive persons in the 10^th parliament. They are James Orengo and Musalia Mudavadi. These guys have been out in the cold and very close to the wananchi for 5 long almost unending years. So you can imagine what they feel now that they are back in parliament. There is nothing like being in the cold politically to remind a politician who their real boss really is.

So you cannot blame James Orengo who is the minister for Lands for saying what he did in the Rift Valey over the weekend. I mean even when the President and Prime Minister were in Eldoret during their recent tour, the people were screaming for Orengo to be given a chance to speak to them. So when the guy got hold of the mike last weekend, he told the people exactly what they wanted to hear. He finished by saying that the best way forward was to re-settle the IDPs elsewhere.

Aii. The PNU chaps and especially politicians from Central province could not take that lying down. So far they have just stopped short of asking the president to drop Orengo from the cabinet. If I was Orengo I would really wish for that, because it would put me in poll position for the presidency in 2012 (if we get that far. Personally I have my doubts). But the president can no longer drop ministers like underwear. The constitution now demands that he consult with his partner. But that is a story for another day.

Folks politics in Kenya at the moment may seem very quiet and boring. But under the surface things are simmering and beginning to boil like crazy. In fact I could not help thinking that the Prime Minister’s short holiday in South Africa after he came from Germany was designed to re-strategize so that he knows how best to land back in the boiling pot that is Kenya. Incidentally Raila came back by private jet (in my raw notes this week I reveal who footed the bill for that costly flight). Sorry it is too hot to put here.

So why are things so hot politically? The answer is simple. Politics in Kenya has changed dramatically since last December and we are headed to that place where the masses are very powerful indeed and their voices cannot be silenced (this is exactly how things should have been since 1963). The ODM high command is under considerable pressure to do something to address the serious suffering of ordinary folks in the country caused by spiraling food prices and the colossal number of jobs and livelihoods that were lost as a result of the post-election violence. They are also under even more pressure to halt the re-settlement of IDPs in the Rift Valley. Yesterday special programs minister Naomi Shaban came face to face with the mounting anger of IDPs when she was confronted by some very agitated folks at and IDP camp in Kitale. And remember these guys who are angry are being offered all manner of incentives to go back to their farms (full shocking details of what the government is really telling IDPs are in my raw notes for last week).

On the other hand PNU is under considerable pressure to re-settle and fully compensate IDPs like yesterday. The party is just beginning to realize that I was not joking 3 months ago when I asked what the cost of stealing an election really is. The answer is that nobody knows but you don’t even want to know what it has cost thus far and still counting. By the way prepare yourself for the most broke government in the history of this country despite being the same government that is collecting record figures in taxes.

In fact the president cannot even call a full cabinet meeting at the moment because of different expectations from the two marriage partners. Read the full story about this HERE.

So with all these marital problems. How long do you think this marriage will last? My humble view is that it will take a miracle for these two to still be together this time next year.

P.S. Taabu has not communicated with me and his number is Mteja. However two of my impeccable independent intelligence sources tell me that he is alive and well and visiting somewhere and will be back to base very soon.

Man leaves graduate wife for standard 7 drop out maid

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