The Power Struggle in Kenya: Boardroom Politics vs. Grassroots Power

Who holds the real power in Kenya today? Is it President William Samoei Ruto, or could it be someone else—perhaps Raila Odinga? This is a question many Kenyans are asking, and the answer may surprise you. As the evidence shows, boardroom politics and grassroots movements have distinct impacts, and understanding their dynamics is key to grasping Kenya’s current political reality.

The Significance of March 20th Through History

Throughout history, March 20th has proven to be a day of game-changing events. On this date in 2003, the world watched as the United States, Britain, and allied forces launched the invasion of Iraq. Further back, on March 20th, 1916, Albert Einstein introduced the revolutionary Theory of Relativity—forever changing science. Einstein’s assertion that energy and mass are one and the same was groundbreaking and unexpected, much like many political developments we see today.

Fast forward to March 20th, 2023, and Kenya stood on the brink of another significant moment, as Raila Odinga and Azimio supporters prepared for protests. The burning question for many was: what would happen? Would it be business as usual, or would the country grind to a halt? And, most importantly, who truly wields power—the government operating from boardrooms or the masses mobilized at the grassroots?

Boardroom Politics vs. Grassroots Politics

To understand Kenya’s political landscape, it is critical to differentiate between two types of politics:

1. Boardroom Politics: These are political deals and meetings behind closed doors. Leaders defect, promises are made, and alliances shift. A good example is the recent visits to State House by various leaders.

2. Grassroots Politics: This represents the will of the majority—ordinary citizens mobilizing and demanding change from the ground up.

History has shown that when grassroots movements gain momentum, they often overpower boardroom politics. In Kenya, we saw this in 1991 during the struggle for multi-party democracy. At the time, the government held state machinery while the opposition relied on grassroots support. The opposition ultimately won, forcing President Moi to concede and adopt multi-party politics.

What if Moi had resisted? The answer is simple: he would not have lasted in power for much longer. Moi’s decision to embrace the inevitable allowed him to survive politically for another 10 years.

Where Does Power Lie Today?

The same questions arise today. While the government holds state machinery—the police, military, and bureaucracy—grassroots movements led by figures like Raila Odinga possess the numbers. Sudan provides a cautionary tale: President Omar al-Bashir, who ruled for 30 years, controlled all state institutions, yet he was ultimately ousted by a mass uprising.

Kenya faces a similar scenario. The government may attempt to project power through defections and political deals, but these efforts are unlikely to halt a mobilized public. Historical trends suggest defections strengthen opposition parties rather than weaken them.

The March 20th Dilemma

Leading up to March 20th, 2023, many Kenyans were torn. Should they report to work as usual or brace for a shutdown? For those committed to working, logistics presented a significant challenge: How would they commute? Would public transport operators and other facilitators also go about business as usual? Even car owners were hesitant to risk their vehicles in uncertain conditions.

The underlying issue remains: Can boardroom politics triumph over a grassroots movement? Evidence suggests that the side with the majority of public support eventually prevails—regardless of state power.

A Global Context

Interestingly, the significance of March 20th was not confined to Kenya. On the same day in 2023, similar demonstrations took place in other African nations:

In South Africa, Julius Malema led protests aimed at bringing Pretoria to a standstill.

In Tunisia and Nigeria, citizens mobilized against their respective governments.

These events reflect a broader trend: when governments fail to address public grievances, grassroots movements emerge with unstoppable force.

Human Nature and Political Reality

Ultimately, political power hinges on the people. Governments may attempt to "buy" loyalty or force compliance, but human nature cannot be overridden. As in a marriage without love, discontent brews beneath the surface, and the truth eventually emerges. Kenya’s political situation post-2022 reflects this analogy: a government attempting to consolidate power while the public’s heart remains elsewhere.

Conclusion

The events of March 20th—and the broader clash between boardroom politics and grassroots power—highlight a fundamental truth: you cannot govern without the will of the people. State machinery can only go so far. History, both in Kenya and globally, teaches us that grassroots movements have the ultimate power to shape political outcomes.

As Kenya navigates these turbulent times, one question lingers: Who truly holds power? The answer lies not in boardrooms, but with the masses.