The Political Implications of Gachagua’s Impeachment: A Ticking Time Bomb

The unfolding drama surrounding the possible impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has sparked intense debate, with many dismissing him as a political lightweight or a clown. However, the political consequences of a full impeachment hearing could be catastrophic—not just for Gachagua, but for President William Ruto himself. Let’s delve into why this scenario could redefine Kenya’s political landscape.

The Gravity of Gachagua’s Impeachment

Whether or not Gachagua is successfully impeached, the mere act of proceeding with a full hearing spells trouble for the Ruto presidency. Here’s why:

1. Historical Parallels

Kenyan political history offers valuable lessons. Past attempts to sideline powerful political figures, such as Charles Mugane Njonjo under President Moi, reveal the complexities and dangers of removing influential individuals. Moi’s meticulous, behind-the-scenes approach contrasts sharply with the direct, confrontational style of Ruto’s administration—a strategy fraught with risk.

2. The Risk of Exposures

Gachagua’s camp has already shown a willingness to “spill the beans.” His recent explosive claims about a $2 billion withdrawal from the Central Bank of Kenya to private accounts are just the beginning. As tensions escalate, more damaging revelations could emerge, further eroding public trust in the government.

3. Incitement Amid Hardship

Kenya’s economic struggles have left the populace frustrated and desperate. Any revelations that paint the government in a corrupt or exploitative light could ignite widespread unrest—something no administration can afford at this moment.

4. External Influences

Powerful non-Kenyan forces that played a role in shaping Kenya’s political outcomes might become uneasy with Gachagua’s disclosures. In a bid to protect their interests, these actors could pivot to supporting Gachagua, accelerating Ruto’s political demise.

Lessons from the Past: Moi’s Calculated Approach

Under Moi, political removals were executed with cunning precision. For instance, in the case of Charles Njonjo, Moi used Njonjo’s own enemies to orchestrate his downfall, keeping his hands clean. By contrast, the current approach lacks strategic subtlety, making the presidency more vulnerable to unintended consequences.

The Fallout of a Full Impeachment Hearing

If the Gachagua impeachment goes to a full hearing, several scenarios are likely:

Government Instability: The ensuing revelations could destabilize the administration, leaving it unable to govern effectively.

Public Discontent: The hardship faced by Kenyans could be weaponized against the government, leading to increased protests and unrest.

Ruto’s Vulnerability: Gachagua’s strategy to shift the blame to Ruto could weaken the president’s position, even within his own camp.

Conclusion

Gachagua’s impeachment is not merely a trial of an individual but a potential turning point in Kenya’s political history. The fallout could extend far beyond Gachagua, with the Ruto administration bearing the brunt of the damage. As emotions run high, it is critical to step back and assess the unfolding events with a clear mind, free from bias.