Raila Odinga, Mass Protests, and Political Strategy: A Deep Dive

Supporters of Azimio are expressing disappointment following Raila Odinga's recent interview with the local media. Their discontent stems from remarks made during the interview, particularly his stance on protests and the speculation that a march to State House is off the table.

In my opinion, this confirms what I have been arguing all along: Raila Odinga, as Azimio's leader, is not the radical force many perceive him to be. The real challenge for the UDA government lies with Odinga's vast and passionate support base—millions of Kenyans, including former regime supporters, who now rally behind him.

But let us break down this development by posing some critical questions:

1. If you were Raila Odinga and planned demonstrations, would you publicly disclose the details? Would you outline step-by-step actions, like gathering points or objectives, to the press beforehand? Clearly, such revelations would compromise the entire movement.

2. Are demonstrations to State Houses around the world spontaneous or carefully orchestrated? The answer is often spontaneous. International examples show that people’s anger erupts, and their collective actions follow naturally.

Now, the crucial question remains: Can a government be removed through entirely peaceful means? History says yes. One of the most powerful examples is Mahatma Gandhi’s peaceful protests, which dismantled the British Empire’s control over India. Peaceful movements have proven effective worldwide without resorting to violence.

In Kenya, the impact of Monday, March 20th, cannot be underestimated. Reports indicate that Nairobi will face near-total shutdown, as public transport operators have already refused to make trips into the city. If workers cannot commute, businesses will be paralyzed. A single day of such disruption is enough to shake any government.

Critics calling Raila Odinga "weak" or "finished" fail to see the bigger picture. His ability to command nationwide attention and mobilize supporters remains unmatched. Observers should pay attention to Monday's events, including the number of people reporting to work and the operations of public services.

The truth is that the government cannot ignore the sheer scale of opposition. ODM Secretary General recently noted that over 50%, possibly 60-70%, of Kenyans oppose the current regime, while another 10-20% remain neutral. Ignoring such a majority is unsustainable, even in military-style governments.

Interestingly, Odinga's interview can be viewed in another light—as indirect incitement. Imagine the anger of thousands of supporters who have traveled to Nairobi for what they consider a historic day, only to be told there will be no march to State House. Such a declaration risks triggering unpredictable reactions from an already agitated crowd.

The UDA government, too, has made strategic missteps. For instance, the arrest of over 50 University of Nairobi student leaders—who were holding a constitutionally protected press briefing—will only provoke further unrest. History shows that university students, particularly from institutions like UoN, are highly influential and unlikely to back down when provoked. Arresting them only adds fuel to the fire.

In contrast, Azimio's leadership has been meticulous, avoiding any missteps so far. For instance, they have not publicly disclosed a protest venue, making it harder for authorities to preemptively disrupt their plans.

As we await Monday’s developments, one fact remains clear: the political dynamics in Kenya are shifting rapidly. Raila Odinga is far from finished, and his strategies demonstrate a profound understanding of Kenya's political landscape.

Finally, for those dedicated to a better Kenya, I stand in solidarity with you. Let us observe closely how events unfold in the coming days and reflect on the power of peaceful collective action.