Five Fatal Mistakes the Ruto Administration Cannot Recover From

Mistakes are an inevitable part of life, but some errors, especially in leadership, can be irreversible. For a government, these missteps can have far-reaching consequences, sometimes leading to an untimely exit. In today’s discussion, we delve into five critical mistakes made by the Ruto administration that have left a lasting mark—errors that they may never recover from.

1. Underestimating Uhuru Kenyatta

One of the most significant miscalculations by the Ruto administration was underestimating former President Uhuru Kenyatta. From public remarks implying disdain to dismissing his influence, Ruto's camp overlooked Uhuru’s political acumen. Despite minimal public appearances, Uhuru has managed to regain immense popularity, especially in the Mount Kenya region. This has severely dented Ruto’s standing, as Uhuru’s quiet yet effective maneuvers have undermined the administration's credibility.

2. Relying Too Heavily on Intelligence

The administration’s overconfidence in the power of intelligence services to secure their position is another fatal error. While the intelligence community played a role during the 2022 elections, history shows that no intelligence apparatus can sustain an unpopular regime. Ruto’s reliance on intelligence to resolve political challenges mirrors mistakes of past regimes, including Moi’s fictional “Mwakenya” strategy, which ultimately failed to suppress opposition and hastened their downfall.

3. Overestimating Propaganda

Propaganda is a powerful tool, but it can become counterproductive when overused. The Ruto administration’s attempts to paint a rosy picture of economic recovery—citing the strengthening Kenyan shilling and reduced fuel prices—have been widely dismissed as illusions. Public frustration continues to grow, as citizens see little improvement in their daily lives. Over time, the disconnect between propaganda and reality has eroded trust in the administration.

4. Ignoring the Cost of Living Crisis

Economic hardship is a sensitive issue that directly impacts citizens. Unlike the late Mwai Kibaki, who immediately lowered the cost of living and introduced free primary education upon assuming office, Ruto’s focus on long-term production strategies left Kenyans struggling to make ends meet. While the government has since shifted focus, the initial neglect of this critical issue has left a deep scar on public perception, making it nearly impossible to recover politically.

5. Being Seduced by Theoretical Economics

The administration’s reliance on theoretical economic models, spearheaded by Chief Economic Advisor David Ndii, has been another major blunder. While Ndii’s ideas may work in theory, they have clashed with Kenya’s harsh economic realities. Policies inspired by these theories have failed to address immediate concerns, further alienating the public. This misstep underscores the disconnect between academic economics and the practicalities of governance.

Conclusion

The Ruto administration’s five fatal mistakes—underestimating political opponents, over-relying on intelligence and propaganda, ignoring the cost of living, and falling for theoretical economic models—have created challenges that may be insurmountable. Each error reflects a failure to understand the realities of leadership and governance, leaving Kenya grappling with the consequences.