Kumekucha Predicted It: How the Finance Bill Will Suffer the Fate of BBI or KANU

Folks, after some very careful analysis and thorough research involving various opinion leaders, experts, and more, I have come to a bombshell conclusion. Wait for it.

The Finance Bill has been passed by Parliament, but it is doomed. In other words, while the bill has been approved, its implementation—the Finance Bill working in Kenya and generating revenue for the government—faces serious challenges.

Now, I know you’re as shocked as I was when I realized this, but it all makes perfect sense. I’m going to explain the reasons. However, before I dive in, stick with me till the end because I have a fascinating story to share about how certain people behave when their preferred candidate comes into power. I’ll also discuss an example from December 2002, involving a very powerful minister in Kibaki’s cabinet.

Just weeks before the general elections, this minister was running from auctioneers and, astonishingly, hawking medical supplies in Mombasa. Today, he is a billionaire. However, I don’t think he would appreciate anyone revisiting this story. Still, I’ll share the details later, so stay tuned.

Let’s get straight to the point. Here are the reasons why the Finance Bill 2023 will be difficult to implement:

Reason 1: Worker Unions Are Gearing Up for Strikes

Several powerful workers' unions are preparing for industrial action. These include boycotts, strikes, and downing of tools that could bring several industries, including government services, to a standstill.

One key union represents civil servants. Historically, union leaders in Kenya have been notorious for accepting bribes to abandon their members’ causes. But this time is different. The Finance Bill 2023 is a hot topic; everyone knows about it. Union leaders cannot afford to accept bribes without jeopardizing their positions in future elections.

Evidence suggests that multiple unions are coordinating their efforts and may strike simultaneously. Imagine the impact of such collective action.

Reason 2: Court Challenges

The Finance Bill 2023 is already facing numerous legal challenges. Multiple court cases cite various constitutional provisions, arguing that the bill is fundamentally flawed and should not proceed.

Reason 3: Mass Action (Mandamano)

Mass protests and boycotts are another significant challenge. The mood on the ground, especially in Nairobi, is tense. If you rely on social media or pro-government bloggers, you might not get the full picture.

The truth is that Kenyans are growing increasingly impatient with the bill. The sentiment across the political divide is united—many citizens are against the UDA government. This unprecedented unity suggests that protests and mass action could escalate rapidly.

The Three-Pronged Attack

If the Finance Bill survives court action, it will face worker strikes. If it navigates the strikes, mass protests will follow. What’s more, these challenges may occur simultaneously, creating a perfect storm against the bill.

To sum up, the chances of the Finance Bill 2023 being successfully implemented and generating revenue for the government are slim.

I also spoke to a tax expert with insider knowledge of the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA). This expert highlighted a crucial factor: tax compliance depends heavily on the legitimacy of the government.

When Kibaki came into power in 2003, KRA’s tax collection surged dramatically. Why? Because Kenyans viewed Kibaki’s government as legitimate. People voluntarily paid taxes because they believed in the administration. Contrast that with the current regime, where allegations of electoral manipulation have led to widespread discontent.

Shortcuts and Their Consequences

My late political lecturer often said, “There are no shortcuts in life without consequences.” At the time, I dismissed it as nonsense. But look at Kenya today.

The current administration took a shortcut to power, using questionable methods to secure the presidency. Legally, the courts upheld the results. But the legitimacy crisis has had far-reaching consequences, including resistance to policies like the Finance Bill.

A Fascinating Case Study: Chris Murungaru

Before the 2002 elections, Chris Murungaru, a powerful cabinet minister, was spotted hawking medical supplies in Mombasa to avoid auctioneers. Fast forward a few months into Kibaki’s government, and Murungaru became a billionaire. However, his career ended shamefully when the British government banned him from entering the UK—a move shrouded in controversy.

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In conclusion, the Finance Bill 2023 faces monumental challenges. Unless the government addresses the root issues, including its legitimacy, the chances of success remain bleak.