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Wednesday, January 19, 2011

PNU’s Surprise Presidential Candidate and Secret Weapon?

The other Explosive post by Sam Okello earlier today: Kenya's last chance

It is the season for think tanks


Okay guys what shall we tell the people?

Answer: Deny everything and throw a few names in; to confuse them even more and in a few days it will have blown over.

This is the typical discussion you will hear around any politician and their handlers virtually anywhere in the world. To Kenyanize this you probably need to throw in a few insults, a little bribery here and there and plenty of impunnity.
So the government has denied that it is trying to influence other African countries for a mass withdrawal from the Rome statute that created the ICC. Mere words from Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and others because the facts speak different.

Eldoret North William Ruto’s political henchmen and allies are all speaking the same language. They are denying that there is no political alliance in the works between the Kalenjin, Kikuyu and Kamba. Again the facts say different. Indeed some of this fellows denying actually announced the birth of such an alliance just a few months ago. Now the same chaps say it never existed.

Respected political analysts claim that President Kibaki will anoint PM Raila Odinga for the presidency as part of an elaborate deal involving Raila’s support (under the radar of course) of some important PNU priorities like dealing the ICC a blow it can never recover from. The facts speak different because the president’s think tank are spending considerable time grooming a surprise candidate whose name I will reveal later in this post.

Although the last presidential anointed, Uhuru Kenyatta did not win the presidency it is important to note that he was a political rookie who came in second with millions of votes. In other words support from the president almost automatically makes one a serious contender. Jomo Kenyatta did not anoint Daniel Moi as his successor. But by refusing to support the change the constitution group he implied his support for Moi, more so bearing in mind his rapidly deteriorating health. See details in my book Dark secrets of the Kenyan Presidency. (Book available for free HERE).

The trouble is that the general elections are only 18 months away and politicians are trying to get a steady footing, at the very least, ahead of those landmark elections. Yes incase you didn’t know, as per the new constitution the next general elections are due in August 2012. We are rapidly approaching the end of January 2011.

Folks this is the season for think tanks. Indeed yours truly has been consulted by numerous individuals in recent weeks (who just want to know my opinion) but I know they are reporting back to. I like playing Moi and appearing to be totally in the dark as to what is going on when I am talking to some of these fellows. Many times it helps a lot in gathering information. It works better than trying to look like a well informed intelligent analyst who already knows too much. I know a number of journalists who just can’t resist the urge to show how intelligent and well informed they are when interviewing news sources.

Never under-estimate the power of think tanks. The PNU one has naturally been trying to envisage what the scenario prior to the next general elections will look like. They seem to believe that Kenyan voters will be looking for a very clean man to be their next president. Somebody untainted by any previous scandal and yet somebody they can trust to give the nation a brand new start. I agree wholeheartedly with these analysis, indeed I started alluding to this scenario even before the 2007 general elections just take the time to read my posts at the time.

The president’s handlers have gone ahead and prepared a candidate for the anticipated times. One who will carry the day for PNU and her allies. That candidate is Reverend Mutava Musyimi. Don’t even think about laughing. Instead read this fascinating analysis on why this strategy looks like a sure winner. Personally one of the few arguments I have against it is the man’s age. Musyimi is 59. As I said last week, I agree with William Ruto that the next President of Kenya will be under 50 years of age and that one you can take to the bank.

What I can say, having closely followed many presidential campaigns, is that the race is decided in the last few weeks to the election. When the boys have been separated from the men and the race has been narrowed down to two probables. Many factors come into play to determine who this last two are. Usually plenty of unexpected things tend to happen and this is why it is impossible to predict at this juncture who the next president of Kenya will be.

This is that season again folks. Don’t listen to what they are saying. Instead carefully observe their body language and read between the lines of their statement while keeping a very close eye on the facts. And always remember that what they didn’t say is much more important than what they said.

Read this March 2007 predictive post I wrote; Will Mutava Musyimi contest the presidency?

Money making secrets: I live in Tanzania but do business in Mombasa and Nairobi

22 comments:

Philip said...

It's good to notice a dangerous trend. I wish we better go back to old politics or staart a new kind of politics, which seems ended in 2002 when Narc took power.

I remember before 2002 politics was dirty but most presidential aspirants were campaigning by telling people lies of development that will come to their region. I remember promises of bridge from Lamu island to mainland, I remember promises of new port in Mombasa, I remember promises of free secondary education e.t.c. These were mostly tactics presidential aspirants used. We all know they were lies but people fell for them.

In 2007 this kind of politics changed. Politics of lies by presidential aspirants changed to politics of tribal hatred, masquarade behind fighting an individual of a certain tribe.

Tribalism has been in Kenya for a long time. To most of us it was planted to us by our parents, and politicians have only capitalised in it. Some of our parents inherited it from Kenyatta vs Oginga face-off, but for most of them I don't know where it started. Fortunately, if compared to current tribalism, the old tribalism was so much to do with passing favour to someone of the same tribe, and nothing to do with harming someone of another tribe. Luos would pass favour to another Luo, Kikuyus would pass favour to another Kikuyu, same to Kalenjins, but rarely will they think of harming the other person because of his tribe. In our current politics we have tribalism which isn't about passing favour to a fellow tribesman, but about hatred for a person of another tribe. This is the tribal hatres we now have in our politics.

It is the reason you would rarely hear presidential aspirants in our current politics talking about promises of developments, which long ago were lies, but they will always talk against an individual or group of individuals. These generally fuels animosity as people don't see the individual but the tribe. In the end we vote not based on which presidential aspirant lied most but based on hatred for another tribe.

If you think it's only KKK who are playing these politics then you need to hear what was said during the opening of Butali Factory. The politics of "us vs them" was being played in a subtle way, though Raila avoided it.

Those who can see it's time we educate those who can't see.

I see the following people need to apologise to Kenyans:

Mzee Jomo Kenyatta - for starting tribalism in politics.

Our parents - for encouraging us openly to join the bandwagon of tribalism since our young ages.

Mzee Moi - for adding fuel to tribalism in politics.

Kibaki - for adding fuel to tribalism.

Raila - for capitalising in this tribalism and starting the politics of "us vs them".

KKK politicians - for capitalising in tribalism and politics of "us vs them" only that in their case they want "them" to have three major tribes in Kenya.

Generally this kind of politics makes people to make unwise decision when electing leaders. It makes people to elect leaders not based on what they intend to do to the country.

As long as these politics go on we'll rarely elect good leaders and even good plans and theories that are brought forward will never see the light as they will be ignored.

Anonymous said...

As someone commented in the other post, the hero's group has panicked. All these candidates being bandied around is just odm propaganda. It is aimed at getting the kalenjin back. But I have to say kibs and his establishment will have a big say in who becomes president, though I dont see them supporting an "inexperienced" person.

M. Pesa said...

Mutava is a Kamba just like Kalonzo so we can say chances of a Kamba person leading Kenya will double if he stands. Mutava also speaks Kikuyu, Kiembu, Kimeru fluently so maybe he will have to learn some Kalenjin to fully market the tribal outfit called KKK (Who said our siasa aren't tribal!). His background as a clergy will also win him millions of votes from the church. He's also a mediocre politician and Kenyans tend to go for mediocre leaders most of the time. Whichever way one looks at it, he stands a very good chance! Raila is indeed should be a very worried man if this man of God throws his hat in the ring. What will make or break Mutava's chances of ruling Kenya will be his choice of a running mate. How about looking for a formidable female from the the western counties of Kenya? All will be on board- Christians, women, Westerners, Gema, Easterners...game over!

Anonymous said...

@Mpesa,

Just like the way M-pesa services sometimes tend to be unreliable, so do you. Mutava Musyimi ain't a Kamba, do you even know which constituency he represents?

Do your research like our kk virtual economists and get back to us, abbreviated references is more preffered.


Pesa Pap!

M. Pesa said...

@Pesa Pap:

Musyimi is indeed a KAMBA elected by the people of GACHOKA which is in EMBU. Sounds strange especially in today's very tribal Kenya, doesn't it?

This is what Prof Makau Mutua wrote a few months ago.

Mutava Musyimi is the quintessential "Mundu". He is the perfect composite of the Kikuyu, Kamba, Embu and Meru. He is Gema itself. He speaks all the four languages and has extensive kinship ties and deep cultural links with all of them.

He could be a member of any of these groups on instant recall. He is a "Kamba" who is an MP in Embu. I do not know of any other senior politician from the region who can claim to be a true melting pot of the four groups.


http://allafrica.com/stories/201011081213.html

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC

Chunga Domo!

kawega said...

@ M-Pesa, you are well informed about Mutava!

Anonymous said...

Truth and madness are sometimes antagonistic but strangely joined twins when it comes to viewing Kenya's presidential politics from the outside or a safe distance.

Mmmmmmmmm! "A distinguished and quintessential 'Kamba' who is an MP in Embu."

So? Is he the much anticipated abacus to the state house? And will the quintessential "Mundu" make any difference within political cicrles around the country?

Aha! I wonder what some of the many "distinguished Kenyan professors" teaching at the 64 SUNY campuses as well as CUNY have to say about the so called distinguished gentlemen?

Is this the same gentleman who has never managed to fill the vacuum that was left behind by the illustrious and distinguished careers of Africans like Ali Mazrui et al?

Do you recall the distinguished gentleman who used to teach at Onondaga Community College and how he faired in the 2002 elections? He was never seen nor heard from in 2007.

A lot can happen in the next 18 months, and expect the unexpected to also happen between now and then.

Let's wait and find out who si who that will present themselves or be presented by their sponsors at the starting line for the 2012 State House Marathon.

KK Regular said...

@Chris,

Have you considered the candidature of Education PS James Ole Kiyiapi? (www.jamesolekiyiapi.com)

http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/InsidePage.php?id=2000026959&cid=289&story=Kiyiapi%20to%20vie%20for%20presidency%20in%202012

Anonymous said...

Mpesa,

You sound so excited, infact AROUSED!! Sorry but selling Rev. Musyimi to the Kenyan electorate is akin to you becoming CEO of Safaricom. Hope you orgasm from your arousal.

Anonymous said...

Musyimi is a Kamba, period! And Gachoka constituency is one third Kambas and two third Embus. He is married to a Kikuyu woman. He is a man of outstanding character who abhors corruption and tribalism, but he is a poor legislator. His name was previously floated as a unity presidential candidate back in 2001 when he headed NCCK.

If he were to run, he would sweep former Eastern Province and to some extent Central Province and Nairobi where he had a strong network. Elsewhere in the country, he would have to rely on his Christian supporters.

Chris said...

Anon @7:28
All in good time my dear regular reader, all in good time. Be assured that I am VERY interested in presidential candidates this time round.

@Mpesa
Hehehehehehehe people should be careful before they just attack you without the facts, you seem to have a knack for smelling political stinkers and also heavy hitters a few months in adavance. I remember u were the first to draw my attention to one Mr Sonko when he was just an aspirant for MP.

I agree with you that Mutava Musyimi's candidature cannot just be wished away by a few slanderous remarks. And what is more he can win. In other words he is a very serious candidate. That is why I am going to keep a close eye on his moves. For starters I am already getting feelers that some people are very upset that I am highlighting this PNU secret weapon coz I am showing their hand. From experience this is usually the perfect sign that confirms I am barking up the right tree. Another sign are poisonous comments like the one that was written against you.

Kumekucha Chris

Anonymous said...

M. Pesa said...,

"so we can say chances of a Kamba person leading Kenya will DOUBLE if he stands"

How would you validate this probability vis-a-vis the possible number of outcomes?.. Would it then be inorder to similarly say that if Ngilu stands the chances of the Kamba nation will TRIPLE!

And M.pesa continued to say...

"What will make or break Mutava's chances of ruling Kenya will be his choice of running mate"..

As per your profound knowledge and expertise on the man it seems it's already a case of GAME OVER! As he is the ANNOINTED one, And the man shall surely be "accepted" and "sought", afterall he is already perched atop Mt. Kenya and is poised to follow in the hallowed footsteps of the "great" men.

All he needs now is to put on his presidential "cloak" and won't become the highest profile "dropping" on which Rao rests his behind.

Can you convince us how this Revered man of God will lead us into the OPIUM trance, or is it a case of short men demanding the right to wear high heels without ridicule.


The Oracle has Spoken

Mwarang'ethe said...

Anonymous said...
Musyimi is a Kamba, period! And Gachoka constituency is one third Kambas and two third Embus.

xxx

Musyimi is an MP of Gachoka. Gachoka is not in Embu, but, in Mbeere district inhabited by Mbeere people (first people) and some Kambas in the lower regions of Mwea Division.

Mutava won for a very simple reason. One of the Mbeere clan voted with Kambas.

If you wanna appreciate Mbeere "politics" see contribution by contributor no. 10 Ngariama Wa Uboro @ May 20, 2007 @ 9.54 am @

http://is.gd/vZ1wzE

NB: Chris, in the above link, you will see Ubariri. We are sure as a Kamba, you understand what that is.

More so, you will see that, there are others who are better than Kambas in those departs.

Having noted the above, we ask, does it matter whether Musyimi becomes the president or not? We answer. It DOES NOT matter. It will be abother OPIUM taking session.

Anonymous said...

Mutava is one ambitious man, but his chances of making it are next to none, his fellow greedy Kao Mr. Kati Kati can't even fathom it, Rao would make minced meat out of him, Uhuru Kenyatta would simply give him an ankle tap and he would fall down so badly and be defaced politically.

Anonymous said...

The mathematical rules of the thumb don't favour James ole Kiyapo as a viable candidate for the presidency.

Is he the same ole Kiyapo, the cry baby who will be known for shedding tears infront of news cameras rather than for working behind the scenes or addressing the very problems that brought the dry tears to his eyes?

FYI, running a ministry like that of education where teachers, employees and school children are at permanent secretary's beck and call does not qualify whoever is incharge for the presidency.

With all due respect, let him first join the ranks and run for the nearest parliamentary, senate or governor's position, then seek the vice presidency or presidency in 2017.

I am sure there are better qualified candidates from his region, young politicians who have done a good job representing their people and region.

Anonymous said...

@Oracle has Spoken,
Speak, for the pligrim, a sojourner in a strange land where religious titles are swapped for political office, is waiting for some advice.

When will the general public find the ways and means to ingeniously dissolve the cognitive dissonance that is so prevalent among those who are addicted to calling themselves "men of God"?

IMHO, there is no such group of people as "men of God" in this day and age, apart from the "children of God" or unless "men of God" are the same as "children of God."

It goes without saying that there are those who would like to be known as "men of the cloth" and that's their clerical prerogative because the title comes and goes with the religious territory.

as of now, people can't wait for a time to come when ceratin political and social circumstances in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda will nurture religious leaders like Desmond Tutu, men of the cloth who will be real representatives of the people ("children of men") in the right places, right time and for all the right reasons.

Until then, people no longer have the same feelings of respect or admiration for the present day reverends, the very reverend, the most very reverend and what have you, who seem to have been cut from the same old cloth of Kenyan politics, ethnic backgrounds, and usual business cricles.

Anonymous said...

Anon 10:44 AM

Amen! Amen!

Phil said...

@ Chris Kumekucha

How does this Mutava fellow fit into the KK and small k matrix?

Kambas are the least powerful in the proposed PNU alliance.

Mind you not all Kales, Kyuks and Kaos are for this tribal grouping, my research tells me majority are NOT.

While pockets of Kales may just vote for Uhuru, can you picture even a single kyuks voting for Ruto on a ballot paper that has Martha Karua and Raila Odinga ? Since when did you successfully MIX oil and water?

Anonymous said...

well the last thing mutava would want is to be seen as a tribal master,while he could get support from gema it would all depend on the political environment then, if there are many candidates in the field his chances are small,but who would tosha him,he is has no links mith gema strongmen

Anonymous said...

can't recall the last time i bothered to engage allafrica.com. must have been long time ago before mobile phones was introduced into my remote village.

Anonymous said...

Yah kkk, to some people its working but to me its not. wait and see. Kalonzo once again u will be left haging with no direction. how can a man not have a goal. why do you dwell in the middle.once again its shame to you and your family. on the record am kao, but i will never ever vote for you. or the KKK group. Rail, my favorite.!

Anonymous said...

There is no way Mutava Musyimi can see the light of day from State house windows. Kwanza, he is just a traitor like his fellow katikati guy. Wasnt he the famous civil society reformer, under NCCK, who shedded off nosiemaking for a flag on his car? Ati ni Mkristo...hata mimi ni Mkristo and i wont be voting a pharisee

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