The other Explosive post by Sam Okello earlier today: Kenya's last chance
It is the season for think tanks
Okay guys what shall we tell the people?
Answer: Deny everything and throw a few names in; to confuse them even more and in a few days it will have blown over.
This is the typical discussion you will hear around any politician and their handlers virtually anywhere in the world. To Kenyanize this you probably need to throw in a few insults, a little bribery here and there and plenty of impunnity.
So the government has denied that it is trying to influence other African countries for a mass withdrawal from the Rome statute that created the ICC. Mere words from Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and others because the facts speak different.
Eldoret North William Ruto’s political henchmen and allies are all speaking the same language. They are denying that there is no political alliance in the works between the Kalenjin, Kikuyu and Kamba. Again the facts say different. Indeed some of this fellows denying actually announced the birth of such an alliance just a few months ago. Now the same chaps say it never existed.
Respected political analysts claim that President Kibaki will anoint PM Raila Odinga for the presidency as part of an elaborate deal involving Raila’s support (under the radar of course) of some important PNU priorities like dealing the ICC a blow it can never recover from. The facts speak different because the president’s think tank are spending considerable time grooming a surprise candidate whose name I will reveal later in this post.
Although the last presidential anointed, Uhuru Kenyatta did not win the presidency it is important to note that he was a political rookie who came in second with millions of votes. In other words support from the president almost automatically makes one a serious contender. Jomo Kenyatta did not anoint Daniel Moi as his successor. But by refusing to support the change the constitution group he implied his support for Moi, more so bearing in mind his rapidly deteriorating health. See details in my book Dark secrets of the Kenyan Presidency. (Book available for free HERE).
The trouble is that the general elections are only 18 months away and politicians are trying to get a steady footing, at the very least, ahead of those landmark elections. Yes incase you didn’t know, as per the new constitution the next general elections are due in August 2012. We are rapidly approaching the end of January 2011.
Folks this is the season for think tanks. Indeed yours truly has been consulted by numerous individuals in recent weeks (who just want to know my opinion) but I know they are reporting back to. I like playing Moi and appearing to be totally in the dark as to what is going on when I am talking to some of these fellows. Many times it helps a lot in gathering information. It works better than trying to look like a well informed intelligent analyst who already knows too much. I know a number of journalists who just can’t resist the urge to show how intelligent and well informed they are when interviewing news sources.
Never under-estimate the power of think tanks. The PNU one has naturally been trying to envisage what the scenario prior to the next general elections will look like. They seem to believe that Kenyan voters will be looking for a very clean man to be their next president. Somebody untainted by any previous scandal and yet somebody they can trust to give the nation a brand new start. I agree wholeheartedly with these analysis, indeed I started alluding to this scenario even before the 2007 general elections just take the time to read my posts at the time.
The president’s handlers have gone ahead and prepared a candidate for the anticipated times. One who will carry the day for PNU and her allies. That candidate is Reverend Mutava Musyimi. Don’t even think about laughing. Instead read this fascinating analysis on why this strategy looks like a sure winner. Personally one of the few arguments I have against it is the man’s age. Musyimi is 59. As I said last week, I agree with William Ruto that the next President of Kenya will be under 50 years of age and that one you can take to the bank.
What I can say, having closely followed many presidential campaigns, is that the race is decided in the last few weeks to the election. When the boys have been separated from the men and the race has been narrowed down to two probables. Many factors come into play to determine who this last two are. Usually plenty of unexpected things tend to happen and this is why it is impossible to predict at this juncture who the next president of Kenya will be.
This is that season again folks. Don’t listen to what they are saying. Instead carefully observe their body language and read between the lines of their statement while keeping a very close eye on the facts. And always remember that what they didn’t say is much more important than what they said.
Read this March 2007 predictive post I wrote; Will Mutava Musyimi contest the presidency?
Money making secrets: I live in Tanzania but do business in Mombasa and Nairobi