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Sunday, April 05, 2009

What Happens If The Grand Coalition Government Collapses?

There is this guy I know who went and married a cute 20 year old girl as his second wife. He was 41 years old then. (I have no idea why Kenyans do crazy things and expect their leaders to be more level-headed). So when he lost his job, she promptly left him and told him to call her when he got a job or had money. Meanwhile she went for a prolonged holiday in Mombasa (financed by her boyfriends).

At least this story has a somewhat happy ending because on losing his job, the guy started his own business which quickly and miraculously thrived and he rushed to Mombasa to fetch his 20 year old beauty, snatching her away from the arms of this good-looking Arab guy who fortunately did not have much cash.

The grand coalition government “marriage” is on its’ last legs and believe it or not it all has to do with money, just like in my friend’s case. However in this particular case “the wife” is definitely NOT coming back after the separation happens.

Are my “parables” confusing you? Let me switch to some plain language that you can understand.

I have said in this blog several times that the “cement” keeping the coalition together is cash and that once the cash ran out, the coalition would be history. And because I believe what I write here, the first thing I did after the dramatic “acrobatics” of this past weekend at Kilaguni was to look for tell-tale signs that there is a cash crunch in Kenya. I quickly found plenty of interesting stuff to confirm this.

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For starters the government has recently revised its’ budget making a hefty cut of Kshs 23 billion that will terribly affect the quality of services to the public in the last 4 months of this government financial year. This is the second time in two months that the government is cutting back on expenditure. What does that tell you?

Then even more alarming, the government has requested money from the IMF (about $100million) specifically to replenish the country’s foreign exchange reserves. Read the full article on the government’s recent cutback HERE.

And as if to confirm that all is NOT well, Deputy Prime Minister and Minster for Finance Uhuru Kenyatta warned over the weekend that the government would not be able to deal with the many “problems” facing it if the coalition partners did not stop squabbling. What problems would be at the top of the mind of Uhuru Kenyatta just now?

Armed with this information, it is not surprising at all that at the first sign of rapidly dwindling resources to feed on, the grand coalition should start wobbling. If truth be told there are other factors that caused last weekend’s circus but money was and remains the main reason.

But let me digress for a minute for the sake of those who do not think that Kilaguni was a circus. Well it was!! So many ludicrous things happened. For starters President Kibaki traveled all the way to Tsavo and then gave the morning session a miss as all the squabbling was going on. Why go to Tsavo to sleep? Are there no beds in State House Nairobi? History will remember President Kibaki as the experienced carpenter who always hated sawdust to the end. In other words the president is a politician but hates political mud fights which are what most politicians thrive on. But that is a post for another day.

Still on the subject of sleeping arrangements, there was squabbling over the allocation of rooms at the luxury tourist resort with some attendees complaining bitterly why they weren’t allocated rooms similar to the Presidents’. Then there was the dramatic walk-out by Raila Odinga. The President promptly sent for him and the PM sulkily refused to come back. If that wasn’t a circus then I don’t know the meaning of the word.

So what are the other factors that have contributed to the events of this past weekend?

Politics, of course. Every politician knows that the pressure from the ordinary folk for change is soon going to be overwhelming and will force an early election (contrary to what the President thinks). This has obligated them back to the drawing boards and the chief concern is how to face the clearly angry electorate again with limited funds. You see despite the unprecedented corruption and feeding frenzy in the one year that the coalition government has existed, most are yet to recover their “investment” of the last elections.

This is one reason why Martha Karua’s handlers have advised her to resign (she is expected to resign later today from the cabinet). Her resignation now would give her immense political inertia considering the fact that President Kibaki and most of his cronies are extremely unpopular at the moment. She would be the hero of the moment in Central province and beyond and this would raise her profile and inject life into her presidential bid. Still in my view the ghosts of 2007 hang heavily on Martha. She cannot just shake off the fact that she was the main legal mind behind Mwai Kibaki’s theft of the election. Kenyans are known for their extremely short memories but this one….aiii!!!! I have my doubts as to whether they will forget in a hurry.

Gosh this post is getting too long and so let me close by answering the question in my title. What happens if the coalition falls apart? Well ODM’s position is that we will go back to the polls. On the other hand PNU’s position is that the constitution is supreme and therefore we will revert back to the constitution and the President will re-constitute a new cabinet.

So clearly there will be a crisis and then add to that the fact that most Kenyans are totally fed up with this government and you realize that there is only one answer to the question I have posed;

CHAOS.

P.S. The gap between ordinary folk and privileged Kenyans is widening by the day. There is no better place to clearly see that than in the comments section of this very blog. On the ground ordinary Kenyans are totally and completely sick of the ODM and PNU nonsense and are united in the belief that both political parties are really the same evil thing. That is in sharp contrast to the situation here in Kumekucha where PNU-and-ODM-which-is-better debates have persisted, completely refusing to go away.

Also a must read;

Kumekucha's earlier warning in March: Titanic government fails to see icebergs ahead

What Kumekucha said about the silver lining in the coming cash crunch that is already here


News Extra
Cell phones get stolen a lot. And that is why a new service that I have just heard about should make a huge difference. Dubbed Ujanja, the service uses satellite technology to track a telephone (or even a laptop) to it’s exact location. What happens is that after some software has been downloaded to your phone, the minute it is stolen an sms will be sent immediately to a cell phone of your choice (either your spouses or your friend.). The sms will contain vital information including the new sim card number that has been inserted into your stolen phone and the location of the phone. All this makes recovery very easy.

I am thinking that this is the kind of service that has the potential of ridding us of phone thieves (which is a very big business in Kenya these days). You can get more information on this interesting new service HERE.

35 comments:

Anonymous said...

Chris,

If the coalition govt collapsed today, nothing dramatic would happen. Absolutely nothing dramatic! The sun would rise in the East and set in the West and Kibaki would go ahead and constitute a new govt. And the new govt would certainly include a break-away wing of ODM.

In the unlikely event that the nation would be forced to go to early polls, it would go under the current constitution and Brother Kalonzo would be the next president.

Still in the more unlikely event that popular riots broke out making the country ungovernable, then our Uniformed Forces would step in in a caretaker capacity for six months to oversee an election under the current constitution and again Brother Kalonzo would carry the torch to State House.

Any scenario you dare play out leads from KIBAKI TO KALONZO. Kwa hivyo lala salama, Bw Chris, hakuna matata!

Anonymous said...

Charles.Nairobi.
When the grand coalition collapses, its back to square ONE!
We are FED UP,no-one is showing true leadership, because they are TOO GREEDY!and busy LOTTING AND RAIDING PUBLIC COFFERS.
Patriotism HAS BEEN FLUNG OUT THE WINDOW.
Its every man for himself as taught by our useless leaders.
Kenyans are TIRED and but who will speak for us!
Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked.

Anonymous said...

The armed forces of kenya must do their duty and not wait for orders from an illegal commander in chief. The should defend our borders, territory, pride and constitution. Our territory has been invaded by Uganda, an illegal coalition government is in place fleecing kenyans. It is increasingly clear that real change will not come from our current crop of leaders and the military appears the only option at the moment

Anonymous said...

Can Kianga be removed by force now. He is standing in the way of the military as he sleeps around with politicians as he earns his huge salary. Get out now, we want change by 'any means nessesary'
How dare Kianga holding a press confrence to say that migingo issue will be solved thro dialoge. He said that as who? His work is to keep the military in top shape and alert to defend the country. KIANGA HAS FAILED AND IS A COWARD

Anonymous said...

Thank you chris for the stimulating post after being treated to the stale propaganda of Okello's and the Taabu's of this day. You are also right that the big leaches in ODM will quickly walk out when they run the public coffers dry. See the way Raila is making his salary issue a national disaster since he feels he should earn more than Kalonzo. Am also suprised that he wanted a matress equal to Kibaki's at the retreat. How retrogressive.

So it seems the Mau report that shows how ODM politicians have ILLEGULARY ACQUIRED the whole forest has started gathering dust since the PM has no POLITICAL BALLS to touch it. He is happy spinning theories of how the good president is overruling his BARAZA PRONOUNCEMENTS. Why are we so cursed to have Raila bring all this hatred and corruption in Kenya???

Anonymous said...

had to copy paste this from the previous post...

OF KUMEKUCHA AND THE IGNORED MAU FOREST REPORT

Ever since the Mau report was released and ODM politicians were named, there has been a suffocation intensity of contributions here at KK from one Taabu and Sam Okello all trying hard to outdo each other in keeping our minds occupied elsewhere. It has not gone unnoticed that even Raila has been uncomfortably silent on this issue choosing instead to whin in public how he is ignored by the President.
It is until the learned Kenyans like Taabu and Okello learn to think by themselves instead of always fighting to protect their King. Even a non entity like Kanoo has joined the choir and the only voice of reason left is Vikii after Kwale got fed up with the juvenile behaviour of Phil, Okello, Taabu and ODM morons.

Death of Mau means death of Kenya as it is. Forget the useless Migingo that we came to learn about last year.

Where is Chris to shed light on this issue?

Taabu's Mistress

Anonymous said...

Anon12.23. The men and women in uniform fight but only civilians can order the men and women in uniform to fight. there is some principle about it taught at military academies.

Anonymous said...

EVEN AN INSANE PERSON OR TODDLER CAN ANSWER THIS.....................
YOU HAVE A NEIGBOUR WHO OWNS A 10 ACRE PLOT NEXT TO YOU. YOU OWN ½ ACRE. ONE DAY HE COMES OVER AND PUSHES HIS FENCE FURTHER INTO YOUR LAND. HE THEN HARVESTS YOUR MAIZE ON THAT PIECE AND EVEN PROCEEDS TO EAT YOUR FOOD AS YOU WATCH. YOU GO OVER AND TRY TO REASON OUT AND EVEN PRODUCE TITLE DEEDS TO SHOW LAND IS YOURS. BUT HE DOESN’T BUDGE. HE EVEN STARTS ORDERING YOUR CHILDREN AROUND. BUT YOU INSIST ON DIALOGE AND HE IS LAUGHS AT YOU. DO YOU IMAGINE WHAT THE VILLAGE IS THINKING OF YOU? WHAT DO YOU THINK THIS NEIGHBOUR WILL DO NEXT BEFORE YOU ACT? RAPE YOUR WIFE?
WE ASK OURSELVES WHY UGANDA HAD THE COURAGE TO SEND THEIR TROOPS AS DEEP AS ELDORET JUST LAST YEAR. KIBAKI HAS ALLOWED MUSEVENI TO CONTINUE TREATING US AS A COLONY. WHY DOES UGANDA WANT A FEDERATION? SO THAT MUSEVENI BECOMES ITS PRESIDENT. THE NOW OIL RICH UG IS SENDING A MESSAGE THROUGH MIGINGO AND SOON THEY WILL RAPE YOUR WIFE…..WHERE IS OUR PRIDE AND HONOR

Anonymous said...

Since Kibaki will neither call for a snap poll or resign, then the forces should relieve him of his illegal command. These are extra ordinary times calling for extra ordinary measures

One Wife Man said...

Chris aka Chris
Speaking of parables what did Dr.Kibaki mean when he said...the grand coalition is not about to collapse because no one is talking about running away from the coalition?

the coalition will not collapse.who would want it to? if this government is a marriage then what we're seeing here is a couple quarrelling, not divorcing as some might fear.They have 15 months only in which they must give birth to the baby of reforms after which i will agree with your doomsday scenario

PS:- is that really a picture of your ear in Twitter or have you photoshoped....?

Anonymous said...

What would happen? The Hague would happen, and if not a snap election, which we cannot afford anyway, first of all because those govt guys have cleared the coffers dry, and secondly because we are in a recession.

During the election violence, when debate was heated on Kumekucha some of us were suggesting that we should have only had a coalition government for 3 years, and then called an election again, run by the UN and NGO's, and then we would spend the three years reforming what was crucial.

I dont get Kenyans at all, they insisted on a coalition government running for five years. Now, they are tired, and they want out at the most dangerous time, does not make sense at all.

Kenyans have forgotten what is the most crucial thing right now, reconciliation, reform and good governance. We can force them to do it, but we first have to stop looking at other tribes as enemies. It all sounds cliche but thats the fundamental point. You cannot have your rotten core and then expect to keep putting wonderful things around it without getting an ugly stench.

The point is, the coalition should be able to collapse and leave the country intact. We cannot let 200 and something individuals hold our lives and futures in their hands. Anyone like Okello who sees doom is just egging it on, zero help to anyone.

I mean what sort of comment is this?

"Kikuyus = Prostitutes, Conmen, Conwomen, Fraudsters, Carjackers, Swindlers, Thieves. They "excel" and are "champions" in all these "professions." They are the Scum of Kenya. Pieces of Shit!!"

It even goes beyond Kikuyu's as a woman it is just chauvanist and sexist, and you wonder why we are so backward in terms of societal harmony? Someone thinks it is ok to put labels based on ethnicity, we are all our own selves, we should start by looking at the Kenyan and not the tribe.

Anonymous said...

The ghosts of 2007 hang heavily on Martha. She cannot just shake off the fact that she was the main legal mind behind Mwai Kibaki’s theft of the election. Kenyans are known for their extremely short memories but this one….aiii!!!! I have my doubts as to whether they will forget in a hurry.

Chris, you are damn right. We will never forget - Never! She enabled Kibaki to STEAL the elections.

Anonymous said...

Anon 2:03 AM,

You asked:

I mean what sort of comment is this?

"Kikuyus = Prostitutes, Conmen, Conwomen, Fraudsters, Carjackers, Swindlers, Thieves. They "excel" and are "champions" in all these "professions." They are the Scum of Kenya. Pieces of Shit!!"

Anon 2:03 AM, THAT IS THE TRUTH! The truth that you always pretend is not there. I shall repeat again, THAT IS THE TRUTH!

M-Pesa said...

Well, if the coalition collapses today, Kenya would still be ruled by a different set of sodomites who cherish raping this country through mega corruption scandals without fear of going to Kamiti.

When will Kenyans wake up from their self imposed deep slumber and realize politicians don't care about them regardless of tribe? Our leaders only care about their already bloated bellies and self preservation. period. That's why they agree on only one thing- raising their salaries!

How does a sane person explain how anyone can still be in power today since Kenyatta years? Which sane person invites Moi to lecture us in the 'Kenya We Want' conference after his barbaric quarter century iron fist rule?

Karua should go ahead and quit instead of cheap rhetoric. Actions speak louder than words madam. I guess she's also sick and tired with all the looting happening in Govt. Actually there just could be a memo instructing ministers to steal or face the sack. How else does one explain all the pillaging from our coffers? This coalition monster is doing 100m/hr in the wrong direction. the time for living a lie is now.

Anonymous said...

I think there are fundemental problems with our so called presidency, why would the president if he believes in reforms, appoint judges without talking to the line ministry at all, do we still need secret authoritarian appointments aka the failed ECK. One of the judges appointed to the high court was fired for selling NSSF land, is the prezo adviced well about this.

It doesnt matter if he wins the succession battle of if PNU or maybe ODM continues to govern this country by force and in exclusion of the rest of Kenya. If we dont reform now, sooner or later we will have to resort to real civil war to enforce reforms. Whether Kalonzo's miracle works out for him to be prezi or Raila becomes prezi and refuses to undertake land and other reforms. We will fight, i will fight to ensure those who remain if i die will not be treated like 3rd class citizens by a section of "Kenyans"

Anonymous said...

M-Pesa,

You asked:

"Which sane person invites Moi to lecture us in the 'Kenya We Want' conference after his barbaric quarter century iron fist rule?"

The answer: Mwai "PUMBAVU" Kibaki

Anonymous said...

Anon 2:36 AM,

I quote you:

"One of the judges appointed to the high court was fired for selling NSSF land, is the prezo adviced well about this."

Mwai "PUMBAVU" Kibaki deos not care, he does not give a hoot. IMPUNITY reigns supreme. It is either his pumbavu way or nothing else. The IMPUNITY of UPUMBAVU reigns supreme.

Anonymous said...

Anon 2:36 AM,

You asked:

Why would Kibaki, if he believes in reforms, appoint judges without talking to the line ministry at all, do we still need secret authoritarian appointments aka the failed ECK that "helped" in the STEALING of the elections of Dec '07?

The answer: Mwai "PUMBAVU" Kibaki does not believe in reforms. He is not a reformist. He is very comfortable with the current Pumbavu status quo.

Mwai "PUMBAVU" Kibaki deos not care, he does not give a hoot. IMPUNITY reigns supreme. It is either his pumbavu way or nothing else. The IMPUNITY of UPUMBAVU reigns supreme.

M-Pesa said...

BREAKING NEWS.

KARUA RESIGNS FROM THE CORRUPT COALITION GOVT!

Phil said...

Blogger M-Pesa said...

BREAKING NEWS.

KARUA RESIGNS FROM THE CORRUPT COALITION GOVT!


M-Pesa, contrary to your assertions of alleged corruption, Karua has resigned solely because of being overlooked in the recent appointment of judges. In other words, she is unhappy at the president for not just contradicting her on judicial reforms, but also seemingly siding with the very people (read- Gicheru, Wako, etc) that are anti-reform in the judiciary.To quote her she said that she resigned because her position as minister had become untenable.

It remains to be seen if Karua will indeed be effective in mobilising MPs to her side, and also mobilising the Kenyan on the street to actually bring about the reforms she says she wants to spearhead.

Obviously, 2012 realignments have started, and recent events show Karua has burnt bridges with just about ALL political heavyweights in Kenya, so I am ruling out her ability to mobilise more than 5 or 10 MPs in parliament to support her cause.

Even during her civil society days, unlike Charity Ngilu fellow female cabinet minister and a former presidential candidate, Martha Karua has never been the kind of activist who was willing to lead street demos or organise public rallies. This is going to be a severe test for her networking abilities because it is one thing to rise on point of orders in the house, but it is quite another to confront police squads on the street and put up with tear gas fumes and batons.

Andruid said...

I would vouch that Mr Annan's 15th month window has closed considerably now that Ms karua has called it quits.

the idea that we are going to get a new constitutional order at all, leave alone one that is truly reparentative of Kenya's needs is pretty much hanging by a thread, if it was not already.

GOD HELP US THAT THAT THREAD DOES NOT BREAK!

Vikii said...

Congratulations to Martha. I now urge all others disatisfied with the government to quickly follow suit and lecture us on government from outside. Someone should hurry up!

Warothe said...

She said it and she did it! You can say alot of things about Martha but you have to admit she has balls.

Phil your ODM brigade has been crying of been short-changed and all that other nonsense,are they men enough to resign from govt and give up the 20M mercedes and all other perks that the bendera gives together with all the corrupt deals??

Or are they just complaining of not getting enough of the loot both them and PNU are stealing?
And spare us that crap that this govt(PNU+ODM+ODM-K) is not corrupt which Raila has been selling. We are not foolish!

All those in parliament are a waste of space and noone is good enough to be a leader so i am not pro anyone.But you have to salute the balls of Martha Karua.

GOD BLESS KENYA!

Anonymous said...

Vikii said... "Congratulations to Martha. I now urge all others disatisfied with the government to quickly follow suit and lecture us on government from outside. Someone should hurry up!"

Ati "Someone should hurry up." Vikii, your hatred is so obvious. We know who you are "aiming at" .... all this while your idol, Kalonzo "Msaliti" Musyoka, is very busy wiping the Panua camps ass holes with his tongue.

M-Pesa said...

Can someone research how many ministers have ever resigned in independent Kenya? Or even Africa? On this side of the world, resigning is normally taken as a sign of WEAKNESS not STRENGTH. Now Kibaki can concentrate with "project Uhuru" without too much noise from inside the govt and impose Uhuru on Kenyans so that he can protect the wealth of the chosen few! By resigning before she's fired, Karua leaves the president with a stinking egg on his face.

Anonymous said...

Spot on m-pesa

"By resigning before she's fired, Karua leaves the president with a stinking egg on his face."

Anonymous said...

Martha is only throwing tantrums because things are not going well for her.

Anonymous said...

Warothe,

The correct position regarding "Manship" is this:

Those in government as a result of stealing elections, if they are men enough should get out. There are many examples but I shall just give two:

* Mwai "PUMBAVU" Kibaki for stealing the elections of Dec 2007

* George "GOLDENBERG" Saitoti. This clown has never won any of the parliamentary elections in his constituency. He has been STEALING all along ever since he entered parliament.

M-Pesa has put it so well:

"On this side of the world, resigning is normally taken as a sign of WEAKNESS not STRENGTH. Now Mwai "PUMBAVU" Kibaki can concentrate with "project Uhuru" (Vikii and your kind, are you listening? Not "project Kalonzo "MSALITI" Musyoka")without too much noise from inside the govt and impose Uhuru on Kenyans so that he can protect the wealth that has been STOLEN by the chosen few! - The Kenyatta's, Moi's, Biwott's, Michuki's et al"

John Maina said...

Despite being tainted with her invovlement with election fraud in 2007 Martha is made a bold move. one good thing about her is that she is decisive and a go getter like R.O unlike our current senile president and opportunists like kalonzo, saito and kenyatta, though her 2007 actions may turn to haunt her. To redeem her image she should do githongo's and clear her name on the 2007 saga.

I find it foolish and childish for those arguing that ODM are mourning in gova and not exiting as Karua is done. ODM strategy is good to stay put and make as much noise as possible to bring change from within for if they quit the opportunist mentioned earlier will have a field day making a worse situation already worse.

Its also juvenile reasoning if i.e. you are in a marriage you can't point out your other half weaknesses or should call it quit just because you disagree.

Godfrey said...

Martha Karua lacks popular appeal and her resignation from government won't win her any more votes. Reminds me of Nyachae in 1999. By 2002, he could only manage 500,000 votes countrywide. Karua will likely fare much worse.

Anonymous said...

John Maina, when will get it, you sound very illiterate and your input is not welcomed in this blog! Reason? it's TASTELESS and lacks substance!!

Anonymous said...

Anon 5:45 AM,

From the look of things, it appears that what John Maina has said has really rattled you. Why? Because IT IS THE TRUTH. Meza wembe - haraka sana!

Karua should do a Githongo: Spill the beans on who and how the elections of Dec '07 were STOLEN by Mwai "Pumbavu" Kibaki and Co. If she does this then we may just consider forgiving her for the role she played in the electoral theft of Dec '07

John Maina, your input is welcomed in this blog! Reason? it's full of substance.

Anonymous said...

Very well put John Maina:

'I find it foolish and childish for those arguing that ODM are mourning in gava and not exiting as Karua has done. The ODM strategy is good to stay put and make as much noise as possible to bring change from within for if they quit the opportunists (Kalonzo "Msaliti" Musyoka, George "Goldenberg" Saitoti and Uhuru "Millions of acres of grabbed land" Kenyatta) mentioned earlier will have a field day making a bad situation even worse."

Anonymous said...

Yes karua should spill the beans about what she knows of the Election theft of December 2007 by Kibaki and company. She has talked about the existence of cartels around Kibaki who are resisting reforms. Name them.

Anonymous said...

John Maina,

I don't hate you know, we come from the same place in Mukurweini, but following all your previous comments, I think you exhibit a character trait of a queer. I mean faggot. And plese don't try to deny it.

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