Is it a Grand Coalition or a Transitional Government?

Impeccable sources in Nairobi are this morning revealing that contrary to what is publicly being peddled that the Annan peace mission is aimed at creating a Prime Minister's post in a grand coalition government, the talks have actually been discussing ways of creating a TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT to be led by none other than Sabatia MP and former KANU Vice President Musalia Mudavadi.

In yet to be verified claims, sources further reveal that Musalia Mudavadi will be deputised by a Vice President to be nominated from the PNU side. Kalonzo Musyoka's name had been mentioned but was outrightly rejected by the ODM side. Names that have been forwarded for consideration as possible contenders included Uhuru Kenyatta, Prof. Sam Ongeri, George Saitoti and even gender balance in Dr. Naomi Shaban have been put forward as possible contenders.

It is unclear how the choice of the transitional leader was reached but Mudavadi has long been viewed as a moderate in ODM and as an individual who PNU insiders (read Athuri group) can work with.

Ironically, this is the very proposal ODM put forward immediately after the disputed elections and they were rejected by the PNU side.

The transitional government is the one that will be mandated to implement the deal that was agreed upon in Kilaguni Lodge last week. The Kilaguni agreement was very comprehensive and it included constitutional reforms that will comprise the following:

• Comprehensive Constitutional reforms
• Comprehensive electoral reform – including of the electoral laws, the electoral commission and dispute resolution mechanisms
• A truth, justice and reconciliation commission
• Identification and prosecution of perpetrators of violence;
• Respect for human rights
• Parliamentary reform
• Police reform
• Legal and Judicial reforms
• Commitment to a shared national agenda in Parliament for these reforms
• Other legislative, structural, political and economic reforms as needed.
  

Even more significantly, the agreement reached at Kilanguni had also proposed the creation of an Independent Review Committee, that would be mandated to investigate all aspects of the 2007 Presidential Election and make findings and recommendations to improve future electoral processes. The Committee is expected to be a non-judicial body and be made up of Kenyan and non-Kenyan recognized electoral experts of the highest professional standing and personal integrity. The Committee will be expected to submit its report within 3-6 months and it should be published within 14 days of submission. It is scheduled to begin its work not later than 15 March 2008. The findings of the Independent Review Committee must be factored into the comprehensive electoral reforms that are planned by the interim government.

If these developments are true and an agreement is signed next week, Kenya's political landscape will dramatically change overnight. However, it remains to be seen if such a development will eliminate the post election violence that has left the nation deeply scarred and divided.

It is also unlikely that both Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga will seek re-election as president in the new political set-up. The former may bow out on account of age and health, while the latter may be satisfied serving as Prime Minister, a position that is bound to be created by the new devolved constitution that the interim government will facilitate.