Friday, November 09, 2007
Opinion Polls: Raila Still Tops
Opinion polls released earlier today by Steadman Research Group shows that President Kibaki is closing in on ODM presidential candidate Raila Odinga.
The latest results put Mwai Kibaki at 41% (up from 39% two weeks ago) against Raila Odinga's rating of 45% (down from 50%) and Kalonzo Musyoka's 11% (up from 8%).
What can you make out of these results?
Will Mwai Kibaki catch-up and overtake Raila Odinga by 27th December 2007? Which areas are edging towards Kibaki? Have the political parties exhausted campaign goodies in their arsenal?
If the latest results were to be converted into numbers and assuming a voter turn-out of about 70% it means that if elections were to be held today, Raila would emerge the winner with 4,410,000 votes, followed by Kibaki with 4,018,000 votes and thirdly Kalonzo with 1,078,000 votes.
It seems to me Kalonzo is holding a triumph card here. As a politician, he is bound to use it to bargain for a running mate slot in Kibaki's PNU or rejoin ODM with greater bargaining powers or wait until after the elections then use his ODM-K MPs in parliament to blackmail government as to which motions can pass smoothly through parliament.
Another thing, for anyone to be elected president of Kenya, they must attain 25% in at least 5 provinces before the ECK can declare them President. Only Raila has achieved this feat going by previous opinion poll ratings. If none of the candidates gets 25% in five provinces, the then two leading contenders will go for a run-off and there will be a vicious scramble for Kalonzo's votes.
ODM must surely be regretting why they broke up with ODM-K in the first place because had they remained united and conducted successful nominations, the government and presidency would now be theirs for the taking. And with Kalonzo now providing a critical swing vote, political telescopes will fall on his next move. Will he drop his bid and support Kibaki in PNU, or rejoin his ODM colleagues? What do you guys foresee?
With former President Moi massive shadow lurking in the background, the next few weeks will be very interesting to watch on the political horizon.