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Friday, November 09, 2007

Opinion Polls: Raila Still Tops


Opinion polls released earlier today by Steadman Research Group shows that President Kibaki is closing in on ODM presidential candidate Raila Odinga.

The latest results put Mwai Kibaki at 41% (up from 39% two weeks ago) against Raila Odinga's rating of 45% (down from 50%) and Kalonzo Musyoka's 11% (up from 8%).

What can you make out of these results?

Will Mwai Kibaki catch-up and overtake Raila Odinga by 27th December 2007? Which areas are edging towards Kibaki? Have the political parties exhausted campaign goodies in their arsenal?

If the latest results were to be converted into numbers and assuming a voter turn-out of about 70% it means that if elections were to be held today, Raila would emerge the winner with 4,410,000 votes, followed by Kibaki with 4,018,000 votes and thirdly Kalonzo with 1,078,000 votes.

It seems to me Kalonzo is holding a triumph card here. As a politician, he is bound to use it to bargain for a running mate slot in Kibaki's PNU or rejoin ODM with greater bargaining powers or wait until after the elections then use his ODM-K MPs in parliament to blackmail government as to which motions can pass smoothly through parliament.

Another thing, for anyone to be elected president of Kenya, they must attain 25% in at least 5 provinces before the ECK can declare them President. Only Raila has achieved this feat going by previous opinion poll ratings. If none of the candidates gets 25% in five provinces, the then two leading contenders will go for a run-off and there will be a vicious scramble for Kalonzo's votes.

ODM must surely be regretting why they broke up with ODM-K in the first place because had they remained united and conducted successful nominations, the government and presidency would now be theirs for the taking. And with Kalonzo now providing a critical swing vote, political telescopes will fall on his next move. Will he drop his bid and support Kibaki in PNU, or rejoin his ODM colleagues? What do you guys foresee?

With former President Moi massive shadow lurking in the background, the next few weeks will be very interesting to watch on the political horizon.

24 comments:

Proud Kikuyu Woman said...

I agree we are living in interesting times, always have, in Kenya.
But the opinion polls, in my opinion, are not to be totally trusted. Maybe, just maybe, I will believe the poll of polls, if ever there will be one. Which most likely will favour Kibaki, and now you know why I will agree with it.
But I still wonder how true these numbers are, and if they are merely engineered, you know what I'm saying? Like, they were meant to put Kalonzo on a pedestal since Wamalwa died, then hurl him down, albeit systematically, then do the same to Raila and shukisha him when there is little to no time to launch visions, campaigns, manifestos,everything machungwa etc etc that'd make him really stand out? (I mean besides his MOU with Muslims that he can deny and later confirm, with the same mouth).

If huyo Steadman continues on the path he seems to be on, Kibaki might emerge tops by as early as late this month. Shall the ODM team then disagree with huyo Steadman whom they have been praising the last several months this year? At least everyone will rule out the next scapegoat for PNU's win, rigging. Next, the required % in the 5 provinces.

Proud Kikuyu Woman said...

On your question-what do you guys foresee? I think Kalonzo is sticking it out to the end. He knows he is a force to reckon with, that he matters. But if, going by huyo Steadman's previous opinion polls (note: I'm not given to believing them as the only truth),we end up having a run-off because of the 25% majority vote in five provinces blah blah blah, I hereby bet 1 Ksh that Kalonzo will cast his lot with Kibaki. Reason?

"Hata Kibaki akishinda ni sawa".

luke said...

Bwana Phil,much to your chagrin, I think that the incumbent will catch up and overtake the ODM candidate well before 27th of next month by a margin of 5%-10%, in addition to this i also think that the ODM K flag bearer will also increase his lead(much to Vikii's delight) from the current single digit figure to a double digit figure of at least 11%. let us see whether my predictions are as prophetic as Chris have been in the past
On the part of the incumbent and his PNU vehicle re-election bid, the power of wooing fickle voters is at work, and the results are clearly evident for all to see-its raining goodies and what a galore at that, new national holidays to fledgling universities, and he is reaping in exchange a windfall of voters as his harvest, as the electorate enjoy rewards they never earned but certainly deserve-we've never had it so good folks
I think more "development work" gets done around campaign and election times than during the 5 year office term of the Government. maisha ni bora au sio
Poor ODM, they may well turn out to be a victim of their own success, they were counting on their voters replacing the GNU just to make a point(because of scandals like anglo leasing and General Mathenge etc)but they forgot how short a memory the average mwananchi voter has (anglo who? who's his mother?) right now, their short-term memory is a goodies basket, and it is full no more space to process issues or remember the past-they have quickly forgotten the promises made just last month to them by ODM about corruption and whatnot
Mr.8% can only go up, can he not? Rock bottom is rock bottom, sasa twende juu-he is clever and attractive, there is no doubt Kenyans will want to see the man fail with more that just 8%. His fortunes are set to change for the better

Anonymous said...

Phil
On October 30th you had quoted impeccable sources indicating that the next Steadman Poll (released today) will be made to indicate Raila at between 45-46%, Kibaki @ 42% and Kalonzo at 18%. The figures appear to very close to your prediction. Could we therefore say the polls can actually be 'manufactured'?

Sue said...

Now PNU guys kina PKW na wanzake can now start believing the opinion polls. Interesting though to see how things are changing, I hope they are genuine, not doctored to make Kalonzo think twice. Its also a wake up call to ODM to work overtime. I will not rely so much on this polls and wait for msema kweli, which will be the main polls.

Anonymous said...

I've been checking Nation media update for steadman polls only to find that Kumekucha is ahead of the media websites. No wonder that guy Makau said Phil could be a journalist. That was first Phil or could it be that your pulling our leg before steadman polls are out?

Anonymous said...

Hi guys,

To what extent is the new sampling method influencing these polls??

Anonymous said...

Hi guys,

To what extent is the new sampling method influencing these polls??

Anonymous said...

There is no need for panic by ODM or excitement by PNU people. Apart from the earlier predictions, it was clear that these polls have been negotiated; watch the post below from abunuwasi.com.
It is common knowledge that KJalonzo will ultimately team up with Kibaki. As ODM we are ready for that!


MORNING EXCLUSIVE: KALONZO IN PRIVATE MEETING WITH STEADMAN MAN

ODM-Kenya presidential candidate Kalonzo Musyoka this morning (08th Nov 2007) met with Steadman boss George Waititu in a private meeting at the Serena hotel.

Sources disclosed that the two held the early morning chat for over three hours in an exclusive room within the hotel.

Called for confirmations George Waititu confirmed that they held the meeting and argued that they had met on the request of Kalonzo who wanted to know more about his dismal performance in the polls.

Interestingly, that comes only two days before yet another Bi-Weekly poll is released.

Waititu also said they discussed other social issues such as history, politics and issues in the campaigns.

Kalonzo could not be immediately reached for comment

kim74 said...

well, i have been following whats happening in this blog and am actually impressed that we have kenyans with such good understanding of our political situation.Though I don't agree on everything that you present-We shall discuss these issues as we go on.Keep up the good work

Phil said...

Not at all Bw. Luke. Raila and ODM are still in the lead. I attribute this fall to the recent irresponsible utterances by Cardinal Njue who has forgotten both the Bomas and Kilifi drafts were infact majombo drafts and this is what Kenyans wanted!

Perhaps we should analyse the provincial ratings first. Which province do you think Kibaki will go and overtake Raila in? Rift Valley? Coast? I doubt it. I can only see Raila gaining as the corruption bomshells are dropped closer to the polls day. Infact, it is Raila's intention to win this seat with more than 120 MPs and a presidential vote of 60%.

Again, as I said before - more than 95% of those who will vote have already made up their minds who they will vote for. Previous opinion polls when Kalonzo, then Kibaki were leading were premature because Raila had not officially entered the race and party nominations had not been done.
The incumbent has not named a running mate yet. Kalonzo's move is also awaited.

Vikii said...

Like I said here a short while ago, we are not fools. We can all see the perspective the ODM mob is trying to introduce in the analysis of these polls. Lemmie tell you something and you can take it to the bank. THIS IS THE LAST POLL DONE BY A RESPECTABLE POLLSTER LIKE STEADMAN THAT RAILA IS LEADING. He will henceforth be referred to as the former king of polls.

As for Kalonzo,he is taking the battle to its logical conclusion. He will be getting about 15% of the vote on 12/27. The PNU will have fewer members of parliament than the ODM. That is where Kalonzo comes in----a post election coalition and believe you me he will wield considerable influence in the resultant Mwai kibaki-led government. Raila and his supporters should by all means be confined where they belong---the opposition. As Cyrus Jirongo once said, they should not be allowed to come anywhere near power.

So now with all indications on the ground showing that Raila's honeymoon is over, bloggers should brace themselves for a sustained wave of fresh accusations of attempted rigging on the part of government starting Monday. In some people's minds, they can only lose elections if they are rigged. Kibaki will be called all names here from next week, his crime? Building a rapport with the Kenyan voter!

bloggeratti said...

If I were in Hon. Raila's shoes, I'd be a pretty worried man.

With the shenanigans going on at the ECK, the brother is a sitting duck for rigged poll.

If I were Agwambo, I'd swallow my pride and run to Kalonzo for help!

deroo said...

Phil, what has happened in the last one month, since 53%. Mambo yanabadilkia.

Majimbo, jailing Moi, Stock Exchange, na sasa Deya. Na bado hutujaambia watu mambo mengine.

Phil, you know those Maasais, kalenjins, and the leders you have said annointed Raila.

There is that thing that Kioko says. I tell you, when people statrt telling them, I know they will, things will go pear shaped.

Imagine, you walk into a kraal in Maasailand and tell the guys, you know, 'Kenya cannot be led by someone who has not had the cut' (sorry for this reference. Even the Luhyas will react to that and if anybody can remember this when Oginga Odinga was vying for the presidency.

YK92 operatives span that yarn and Odinga was entangled in a motionless stance that took him to entangle himself from.

then you remind the kalenjins that this guy wanted to otherthrow the government. It might not be true, but it is campgain time and lies are said in the process. what will happen then.

Then, already he has said that Kikuyu are our 'adui' and the Kisii will obviously spin the Kioko yarn, so will the Giriamas says that he predicted Karisa Maitha's death.

All this will come sooner than you think. Just watch the election space in Kenya.

Kwa Hayo Machache. Mlale Unono

-Derek-

Anonymous said...

Vikii and PKW,

Let us not celebrate early like ODM but let us continue campaigning for PNU er... no lets continue campaigning for Mzee!

Steadman is not a reputable company they am now even more convinced that they are fooling us and they are doing it tactlessly now. First of all, on Wednesday Waititu met Kalonzo in a private room in a hotel for over 3 hours! Why should he owe Kalonzo a private explanation of 3 hours, if we was smart he should have invited the crew of ODM-K for a presentation at his company offices.
Secondly, Steadman admitted that this time they changed the sampling method to reflect predicted voter turnout using previous voting records of the regions (How can u add probability to probability?) They also claim that for that reason this poll should not be compared to the previous ones because it uses a different sampling method.
Thirdly, other indicators are flawed ODM party's popularity was lower than Raila's but now they both have 45? Why the sudden change? (Maybe it is becoz of the sampling method again!)
Fourth, Majimbo is now preferred by voters by a remarkable 58% who think that it will bring power and resources to them.
Anyway Steadman should stop being politicians and stick to scientific process!
Let us see what happens next... especially the next one after party nominations and our Manifesto launch!
My predicition is that there will be a fallout in ODM and ODM-K and KENDA will be the main beneficiaries! PNU will hold joint nominations and this will lead to fallout to miniature parties, Kibaki will use an iron fist and have aspirants will be locked out of DP, Narc-Kenya and Ford-Kenya forcing them either to remain in PNU or head to the miniature parties!

Cheers

Kip said...

Vikii, thats cheap talk about Kibaki being called names and all that. If indeed there is no rigging being inteded to happen why can't the government take Raila for his word and just conduct a simple investigation about all the names produced, the building they are in and what they are doing... C'mon..

Proud Kikuyu Woman said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Proud Kikuyu Woman said...

As you can tell, I have developed a keen interest attributable to the polls. Third time, na bado.

Philemon Othieno Wesonga, aka Phillip Doila alias Phil: I like that Njue (GEMA this GEMA that) is the new scapegoat on the block. You have been mum (Imam?) over the RAO's MOU with a select few of our Muslim brothers and sisters to turn Kenya into a Sharia nation. How about we point a finger at that as the major thing driving RAO's popularity down? And the fact that he has been quite shifty about it.

One more thing-you can count your corruption bombshells as detonated before you drop them. In you own perfect world, when did anyone become guilty of corruption before a reputable court of law proved them so? The least you can do, by your standards, is align the 'allegedly' corrupt guys in court and have the verdict delivered before Dec 27.

Oh, and by the way, did you notice the name of the Steadman man? Waititu. 'This tribe' can be so calculating!

Taabu said...

Now the foot is firmly lodged in the other foot. While others are going gaga others are running scared fearing the worst. Well in the whole charade we really come out badly as Kenyans. We only complain and wax objective when things (read polls) pain a dull colour about our horse which we ride down a steep slope when fortunes change. And whom do we think we arte fooling apart from ourselves? Well the time is nigh and amy the best candidate win. Kenya ni yetu.

Anonymous said...

Mupende musipende Kibaki atachida. Surely if we assume 70% turnout, Kibaki has a headstart of about 1.5 votes cash in central,over 1.5 in Eastern ie Meru and Embu combined, while Raila will have to shed about 20 % of the Nyanza vote because of the Nyachae Factor in Kisii and over 30 % Western vote courtesy of Kombo and Awori.In Rift Kibaki must get more than 40% at least for many factors despite the false euphoria which is dying out, and reason for Raila's cry wolf about rigging. The truth is that he has seen the reality. This also includes Moi and Central Rift factor which has traditionally voted for Kibaki, even during Moi times. If you compute this you will see he is so far already leading without counting the other lesser regions where the sharing is about 50 - 50 at least. How does Riala win in such a scenario. Stop thinking about plans to carry new sofa sets to state house yet.

Phil said...

Predictably PKW (or is it JEFF or Jeff Koinange), you have managed to create another link from my last comment to an anti-Gema plot. It might be a complex most of those who fear devolution suffer from, but I take it that you assume any pro-ODM comment is an anti-GEMA supporter. How shallow can we go?

Whereas you are entitled to your opinion, I have to say I am looking forward to the day you will publish a post here and let the rest of the readership post comments.

For starters, assuming you are a woman, How would you rate President Kibaki's performance on affirmative action, poverty and HIV/Aids - two issues that are very close to heart of any Kenyan woman?? How about future prospects for women under PNU, ODM-K and ODM? Please, start a thread on that so we can see if there will be any linkage between it and names starting with letter K.

Meanwhile, as you keep going on and on about this purported MOU between Muslims and Raila; I notice you conveniently forget to comment on recent accusations made by KNHC's Maina Kiai against KP for the summary execution of 500 mungiki suspects. You also remain evasive when it comes to commenting on the social injustice that has lately escalated in Kuresoi, Molo and Mt. Elgon for the last one year, yet hundreds of innocent and hapless villagers are killed and displaced by private militia in full view of the so called Government of National Unity. If these two vivid examples are not what is known as GENOCIDE - happening in your favourite centralised system of government - what is it?

While I am still at it, Orange Democratic Movement (now also shallowly christened Odinga Dictatorship Movement) appears to be the most popular political party. Haven't we all noticed that a single unified party only founded months ago is heads and shoulders above that coalition of tribal parties known as PNU (which I shall not christen for obvious reasons).

Uwanja niwako PKW (ama sijui ni JEFF ama JK). Lakini tuliza boli uwanja ni mdogo.

Anonymous said...

Let this blog post the Raila Moslem secret MOU so that readers can judge for themselves. Please also tell us about the Kenya politician who was found naked in a Johannesburg graveyard in the night. What was he doing there? Please Chris, why don't you want to inform you readers about these interesting episodes? Kioko. BC, Canada. Kazi iendelee.

Anonymous said...

Kioko the answer to your FOOLISH question is that Chris has readers who are intelligent. Unlike you with your obtuse obsession with lower primary civics on bantus and aothers besides foreskins we don't entertain those base gossips.

You are one afterbirth whose poor mother must be still smarting from the loss of the baby lost to incineration. Spit your cut and love your nether parts more. That is all you think of day in day out. What a fool for a man? NUMSKUL.

Bruce Roba

Anonymous said...

I wish Mr Rioba could make his point (if any) by using polite language. Otherwise he is no better than his sworn enemy. If allowed this is going to reduce the blog to trash. Rioba please check your loose tongue.

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