Kalonzo's Imminent Defection to PNU

We can now authoritavely inform Kumekuchans that Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka has all but been drafted into PNU and will end up being Presidents Kibaki's running mate. Here's how:

Impeccable sources advise that the next Steadman opinon poll results will see Raila and ODM slip up further, from the current 50% to between 45 - 46%. Kibaki and Kalonzo, on the other hand will increase their polls 42% and 18%. PNU strategist opine, rather naively, that should Kalonzo drop his bid to support Kibaki, it will place Kibaki at par with Raila's ODM and in pole position to retain the presidency.

Enter retired President Moi

It is recorded fact that Kalonzo will do almost anything to get the support of retired President Moi, the AIC church and the larger Rift Valley vote basket. Since the launch of his presidential bid with the 'miracle rally' in Uhuru Park two weeks ago, Kalonzo has been under intense pressure to support Kibaki's re-election. Night talks have been on-going between Kalonzo's think tank and President Moi's on the other hand about the possibilities of Kalonzo dropping his bid in favour of Kibaki. Of course, the Vice Presidency is carrot being dangled in front of Kalonzo's face as well as support for a fore-runner in the Kibaki succession battle that is unraveling right before our eyes. Kalonzo has been promised Moi's support in Rift Valley if accepts to support Kibaki in 2007 and that the Mois will be with him 2012.

The sources further reveal that it is now almost a guarantee that Kalonzo is only bidding his time to disorganise a possible opposition unity and will be announcing the withdrawal of his presidential bid in due course. It is a certainty that Kalonzo will be sitting next to President Kibaki at Nyayo Stadium on Jamhuri Day on 12th December 2007. Incidentally, this is the same day Jomo Kenyatta (and his side-kick Tom Mboya) sadly reverted this country back to a republic from a devolved government in which Kenyatta served as prime minister. In other words, 12 December 1964, was the beginning of presidential dictatorship in this country. Moi was the defector number one from KADDU to KANU.

PNU fallout

This move spells doom for the likes of KANU's Uhuru Kenyatta, FORD-K's Musikari Kombo and Kipruto Arap Kirwa, NARC-K's George Saitoti, Mukhisa Kituyi, Martha Karua, and SHIRIKISHO's Ali Mwakwere, all of whom are in PNU supporting Kibaki's re-election but in reality angling for the VP's docket and hence to become Kibaki's automatic successors.

Unbeknown to many Kenyans, including PNU strategists, the truth is that retired President Moi has revived his own succession plan and is determined to put his people back into power following the abortive 2002 project Uhuru. Afterall, he owes the Kenyatta's (read Kikuyu's) nothing after having left the presidency for Uhuru Kenyatta's taking in 2002. It seems as if the presidency of NARC Kibaki was actually euphoria and is, in Moi's own eyes, a passing cloud, ha!

Questions are now being raised whether political parties in PNU will continue to support Kibaki's re-election plans upon the entry on ODM-K's Kalonzo in to PNU and his appointment of Kibaki's running mate. I doubt if PNU will remain united.

ODM Strategy

Meanwhile, ODM are back on the drawing board following reports of Kalonzo's imminent defection. Charity Ngilu's profile has been enhanced by entry into the prestigious PENTAGON, but it is obvious she will play an important role in curtailing the bulk of Kalonzo's support following him to PNU. ODM are due to hold a public rally in Kitui on 1st November 2007.

It seems many people in PNU are assuming that Kenyan voters, particularly the so called Kamba vote that Kalonzo purportedly controls, will follow them to political alliances of convenience like sheep. This is the same strategy Moi relied on in 2002, only for his preferred successor to suffer humiliating defeat at the hands of a united NARC coalition, and not necessarily President Kibaki as an individual.

According to my forecast, the general elections are a matter of mere formality for Raila Odinga and ODM, and that it is just a matter of time before all patriotic Kenyans troop to congratulate Kenya's true freedom fighter upon his inauguration at Uhuru Park in the new year. Raila himself told us that this is a marathon and not a sprint. Watch this space.