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Friday, September 28, 2007


This is the latest poll I just received on email, the sender suggests that if he was the president he would be talking a lot to Musyoka.

Raila 47%, Kibaki 38%, Musyoka 8%. (The other one done this week was just Nairobi)

If Kalonzo would accept then that would mean Kibaki gets 46% and be close to Raila.
However the way things are now, I don’t see that happening and it seem Raila is gaining more by the day.


Phil said...

Thanks for this Chris. Its all over the news now. We've been saying it, but doubting Thomases never believed us. I believe you now have reasons as to why ODM opted to postpone their rally to next weekend.

If Kibaki takes your sources' advise, it will be the last nail on his regime's coffin. Infact Chris, the minute Kibaki names his running mate, it will be the end of his shaky coalition. Should Kalonzo be named running mate, where does that leave the likes of Kombo, Kirwa, Kituyi, Tuju, etc. etc. Will they take that lying low? I doubt it.

All the same, the 9% gap Raila has given the incubent is quite impressive. It has yet again showed us not to follow political scientist Mutahi Ngunyi blindly. Meanwhile, I am predicting the opinion polls for September / October to put Raila at 55-60%, Kibaki 35-40% and Kalonzo 0-5%. You can also expect Madam Ngilu, and one other woman to be part of the ODM Pentagon between now and 6th October 2007.

Anonymous said...

Dream on political wankstaz...cum januari mtalilia kwa choo...

Anonymous said...

It's too early to start celebrating now. Raila's ratings - as expected shot up when ODM delegates "elected" him their presidential candidate.

There has been a lot of confusion in Kibaki's camp over the mode of electing MPs and councillors (whether under PNU or through individual parties). Kibaki and his coalition partners can do one thing to send the man home - allow each party to field candidates. ODM will be home and dry!

Kibaki's ratings will change if his partners go to the election under PNU. That will give voters a lot of confidence. So, Raila's supporters can busk in the glory for now.

There is a whole 3 months to go and anything can go either Raila or Kibaki way.

Taabu said...

When that is being number one. Staying there is the real task. Remember a day is politics is a LIFETIME so don't pop the champagne yet. Caveat: just e-copping and not playing a spoiler.

Charles Njoroge said...

Am kibaki supporter, but i dot thik i have much quarrel with this poll. It just reflects the way things are i Kenya today. Am in Nairobi ad for soetime we have seen this coming. The man has been a good economic manager but a poor political manager. He had all the resources and networks to build a formidable party but squandered the time and opportunity. He also has no propagandist, ODM has been in the market for the last two years ad Pnu just few days. The eletions have also gone ethnic - its others against Kikuyu. Its not an issue based campaign. This election could go either way (50/50. Raila could safely land at the house in the hill. The NSE is feeling it, just see the drop in the index without any supporting fundametals. My considered opinion today is an odinga preseidet could be good for Kenya, otherwise the current president if he wet through may o manage the transition and it could be worse. All the same the Kikuyu community is coming to realise they could achieve more without one of their in state house. Its good for them. The perception that you community is benefiting has not worked for the common man. The beauty is that all these candidates mean well for Kenya. All the same the bechmarks of politics, freedom ad developmet are high. The icoming president can only do better.

Taabu said...

With Media Bill's rejection Emilio adds 1% so that E+K=RO=47%. Or is it a matter of too little too late. Ama better late than never? Take your pick depending on the colour and value of your horse. good riddence chaps.

Anonymous said...

I think it’s too early for either Kibaki and Raila camp to start celebrating about the opinion polls. Raila’s rating shot up drastically after he was “elected” by ODM delegates as their Presidential candidate. This cleared the confusion which had persisted over many candidates. At least, Kenyans know who represents ODM.

On his part, Kibaki’s camp has been dogged by confusion due to his own inability to take a stand. He always waits for other people to fight for him and jump into the ship in the last minute (1992 multi-party crusade, 2002 under Narc and now 2007 under PNU).

Kibaki opted to sit on the fence as Noah Wekesa and his group agonized and spent sleepless nights putting together a campaign machine for Kibaki. Kibaki was then sleeping soundly in State House with Lucy!

Kibaki’s ratings went down due to confusion over his party. The situation was compounded PNU partners when they said they will field individual candidates in civic and parliamentary seats. However, the tone has now changed and they have indicated they will field PNU candidates. Their earlier stand was a sure and faster way of sending Kibaki back to his home in Othaya. Kibaki, too, had not seen the danger for he had hurriedly accepted that all parties to fight it out in parliamentary and civic level. That would have been blessings for Raila and his ODM.

When all is well under PNU, Kibaki’s ratings are bound to change – as happened in Raila’s case – because the voters will have some confidence in the Kibaki candidature. However, both Raila and Kibaki have good chances and it depends who is smart in playing his cards.

Three months is a long time in Kenyan politics and Raila’s men who are celebrating that their man will be in State House in January 2008 might get a rude shock. In 1992, Kibaki’s ratings were far above Matiba a few weeks before the election date. But when the High Court pushed the election date by a week, Matiba’s ratings shot up within a week and he emerged second to Moi. Kibaki was a distance 3rd.

Hold your horses, Raila’s men. The game has not even started. Kibaki’s team is yet to hit the road and the tide will keep swinging either way. Readers should judge my comments rationally and not through emotions and insults that characterize this blog sometimes.

Anonymous said...

I agree with the above anon's comments. It is definitely to early to say decisively who will win in December, however as Kibaki's team continues to make blunders and if ODM can continue the momentum, Kenya is bound for change for the better. All those coalescing around Kibaki are not offering anything other than telling people to re-elect Kibaki, they are not saying why apart from the economy. The common Kenyan has not benefitted from this economic growth, the jobs Kibaki promised have not come, Corruption has been ignored, and the rule of law has been flaunted by foreigners on this administration's behest. Even in the US when Bush started the illegal wiretap program he spoke on it as well as other things his government has done. Kibaki has remained silent, that is not leadership even if people did not or not agree with him, if Kibaki spoke on these issues Kenyans might get an understanding as to why these actions were taken. Many people say many things about Raila but haven't many of his statements eventually ended up being true, i.e the Artur Brothers? Last year and early this year Kibaki and his team were saying that ODM was campaigning to early. Can they honestly say that now? The days of waiting to the last minute to offer goodies to Kenyans is coming to an end, KIbaki is only now doing what he should have been doing all along. The light at the end of the tunnel is getting a bit brighter, albeit with an orange hue.

Anonymous said...

I Just wonder if ODM will finally welcome this poll. They have been skeptical all along...but when they are on the lead, I doubt they will make the noises. Kweli politicians are opportunists. It's also time for Raila to clean up ODM by kicking out those named in graft cases, then we shall surely know he's serious about fighting graft. Still KIBAKI ABAKI

John Maina said...

i dont see it getting any better for kibaki as this is a very big jump for raila from 20s to 40s also remember the artur bros story will not do any good for kibaki in the next few weeks, there is likely to be more releases of githongo tapes probably other reports that have happened under current government,

its also unlikely PANU's problems will be resolved anytime soon with muite digging in for indiviual nominations.

also when raila releases his manifesto, its discussions will keep him in the news for couple of weeks so October is likely to be Raila's/ODM's month remembering their significant defections to ODM happening

Anonymous said...

I think a Truth and Reconcilliation Tribunal is the best idea for this country. That way all looters can give back the money they've stoled honourably. Where there is dispute a sincere court can help decide what the best course of action should be. Those opposed to Raila and who like to cite the Molasses Plant as an example of corruption by Raila have a weak argument on that issue. Raila thorugh his company SPECTRE bought the property from the government, so it is really the party or parties that had authorization to sell that property who are accountable for corruption. From a moral standpoint Raila is also accountable if in fact it is proven the deal was corrupt or most importantly illegal. If the latter is proven Raila should pay back the difference in price he paid and the true value. In the grand scheme of things to place this case amongst the grand corruption that has perpetuated amongst Kibaki's camp and its associated with Moi and Uhuru, is laughable. At the end of the day wrong is wrong, but I would much prefer the government to go after a bank robber instead of a shoplifter especially if the former is in the government.

Anonymous said...

It's interesting when people start chest-thumping and the whistle ain't blown yet !
Election day not yet known...
Presidential campaign not yet launched...
It's also important to test the maturity of Kenyans ...we have all along sang about becoming a better nation. Do we need a 'politician' leading us the way MOI did or can we trust the hands of the incumbent...keep watching as we approach the final laps

kalamari said...

Chris, you email buddy is right. Kibaki has no choice but to desperately court Kalonzo. He does not have to offer him the VP post. When reality finally sets in, KM will accept the coveted sub-chief position. Kibakis’ plan must include dangling some cabinet posts to some of KMs masters…which if accepted, the emaciated horse will be whipped to endorse Kibaki. Not that this will change opinion polls but it will definitely create a perception that not all is lost in the Kibaki camp.

Still, no cheers yet for Raila. Whereas euphoria is heightening, supporters must remain humble. As has been said, 90 days is long time in Kenyan politics.

Anonymous said...

Chris. I wish to complain of the hate mail from Kalamari and taabu. They need to be restrained from insulting Kenyans and the Head of State. Is taabu going to be the vice-president? is kalahari going to be the prime minister? I wonder what these chaps do day-to-day expect idling all over the internet write abusive stories about Kenya. Let the know that President Mwai Kibaki has powers to extend parliament for an year as it has been before. In case ODM violence get out of hand, he can even introduce a 2-year military government and detain the troublemakers. Kioko. BC. Canada. long live PNU. Long live HE President Mwai Kibaki as many Kenyans cannot accept another President come what may!!!

derek said...

Now, the Steadman Poll is recognised and gives a true picture of the situation on the ground. When Kibaki was on top, it was deemed to be skewed and the poor Steadman bloke was barracked for allegedly misleading Kenyans. I dont believe in the Steadman Poll/Ratings/Propaganda. Wait for the elections and see the whitewash that beckons.

We shall be rolling out our juggernaut this weekend and all will be okay for the lives of the Kenyans. The truth is...Kibaki will win the elections. No election has been won two months before. The only thing is that we have perfomed better than most.

To Charles Njoroge, please get real for once. are you imagining things. Kibaki has been a good manager and you will wait and see how precise management works after this weekend. Opinion polls? How many were up against Moi and how many were up against Tony Blair, George Bush and even Vladimir Putin. Did they not win elections. Wanjiku does not know about opinion polls. She knows about her tribe.

Njoroge, Idinga presidency cannot be good for Kenya. If anything that Moi said this week is to go by, then, rephrase your statement. Kenya cannot have one man, who is hell-bent to be president by hook or crook. O, (Ochuka), O (Okumu), O (Onyango Sumba Patrick) O (Odinga), Os.

Anonymous said...

Don't you be surprised to find that the government was behind the latest poll. Raila and his crew have already hit the campaign trail. It could be the governments move to create an air of confidence in them so that they reduce the momentum with which they have been campaigning.
Raila has a head-start and the government might want to buy time by showing them how, "popular" they are.The PNU is quite disorganised and they require time to catch up.
If I was in ODM I would ignore the opinion poll. it's meant to distract them.

Vikii said...

I have one question for you little masters of propaganda. The companies doing polls now are the exact same ones that did them a year ago and you guys never gave us breathing space telling us how your cousins, girlfriends and grand mothers were never polled and so the polls were more hypothetical than anything else; What has changed now? How come now even the "moderator' in this blog is suggesting Kibaki should seriously talk to Kalonzo meaning he endorses them? I remember when polls showed kibaki and Kalonzo as the leading contenders, steadman was called all sorts of names. Even the dull Jakoyo Midiwo called Kalonzo steadman, The Standard (A newspaper that owns this blog or so I believe) which had long stopped carrying news about the polls shot up with the headline "Raila finally Hummers Kalonzo". Why the double standards people, Why?

Which poll are we talking about here? Whose intelligence are Chris, Phil and their spanner boys and girls in this blog fooling? According to Chris's official NSIS polls, Raila would get 4.54M, Kibaki 3.56M and Kalonzo 1.83M. Now assuming that raila Odinga's percentage is actually 47%, then a comparative assesment of this poll (whose source I have no idea) and the NSIS one gives Kibaki 37% and Kalonzo 19%. The total percentage vote is 103%. Or asssuming kalonzo would actually get 8%, then that means Raila gets 20% of the vote and Kibaki 16% which totals 44% meaning 56% of voters are either undecided or did not answer the questions. Is anyone following?

Still another poll whose results the government and the Knyan press are hiding (This is according to the highly informed Phil) Mwai Kibaki wins in Nairobi province with 46% of the vote.Raila has 45%. The steadman conducted another poll in collaboration with the dreadful Standard Newspaper (It was also published in this blog and curiously supported by Phil), Raila wins in Nairobi with 44% of the vote and Kibaki comes second with 40%. So this brings me to my question to Phil.mister, which one of these polls, all done at the same time and supposedly by the same pollsters are you/are u not supporting? These equations are not balancing Phil, please help me out.

I have my own 'ears on the ground' too (whatever that means). Though I will not vote for Kibaki, he is winning and I dont have the slightest doubt about it.

derek said...

Me support VIkii ten times. Last year, it was said that the Steadman polls are skewed. Why? Because they said Kibaki was on top. many including Raila Odinga castigated the ratings company. When they put Kalonzo Musyoka ahead of Raila, Raila Odinga was spitting feathers about it and even questioned many things about the poll and its employees.

But, opinion polls are opinion polls. they gave George Bush lower ratings in the run-down to the last American elections, rubbished Tony Blair in 2005 and even microscoped Vladimir Putin to the size of an ant. Of the three, who lost.

It was at the height of the civil discussion about the Iraq war and yet George Bush trounced whoever it was. Blair got the better of the Tories and Putin had no challeneger. I do not believe in polls at all. I believe in the DEBE (Msema Kweli).

Kwa hivyo, please wait for the juggernaut to get moving this weekend and experience change. The real change. Change that will tell you where Charles Njonjo and Tony Gachoka will vote.

Finally, no propaganda will hit the current regime now, more that the Anglo Leasing one, which they weathered with ease. In any case, anything now will be silenced by propaganda claims.

So much so, that someone in Nairobi told me that Moi and son Gideon are not in talking terms because Gideon is backing Raila against his dad's wishes. (this was a whole former administrator).


Koech said...

Vikii...lick you wounds...your man is a loser...start packing your bags..

Anonymous said...

Vikii the important thing to focus on is not the polls, you don't hear ODM referencing them like Kalonzo once did when he mattered. What you need to be made aware of is that the future is ORange without the K (aos)!

Anonymous said...

Vikii, do not trouble yourself worrying about polls. The future is Orange just without the K(aos)!

Benji said...

I will start by admitting that I've been one of those who believed from the beginning that Kibaki had this election in the bag but lately and with the way things stand on the ground I really don't see that happening. What with his divided PNU party that is not sure whether to have individual or joint nominations and with the likes of Paul Muite declaring that they want all parties under PNU to nominate their own candidates. The Kibaki camp is also full of arrogant Kikuyu's(am a Kyuk myself but am not impressed with their likes)who are not doing his campaign any good. Yes he has done some good by leaving them out of the campaign committee but he has also made a major blunder by leaving out the likes of Mukhisa Khituyi and Danson Mungatana who have been very vocal in his campaign.I foresee defections to the ODM camp by some on the Kibaki side.

Anonymous said...

Vikii is really mad and very dissapointed with the current polling results. If Steadman has been propping up Vikki's favorite candidate and then suddenly changed their minds, it becomes understandable why Vikii has drifted into denial mode. No wonder Vikii ends the lamentation in a Kalonzo style of "I am the most popular among the candidates", which to an extent is true, who else would be more popular than him in Mwingi and Kitui. That picture changes dramatically in several other parts of Eatern Province, no wonder Kibaki beats him hands down in his own province, will Raila's prediction of 400,000 votes come true? Well it wont be the first time Raila's pronouncement will be proven right, we are kind of getting used to them. In Vikki's parallel, there is an emphatic assertion of a Kibaki win, may be Vikii is on to something, but unless we are told, we shall continue accepting and also finding grounds to reject steadman as we deem fit. After all their prediction about the referendum were consistently wrong and when the plebiscite came close, instead of redeeming themselves by releasing the final results, they chose to keep it, claiming that they didn't want to influence the voting pattern. Then they tell us in this last poll that they will be releasing the results to subscribers every two weeks. Its going to be a very lucrative three months for steadman. Kenya may need a couple more competing pollsters to break down their monopoly.

emurithi said...

It has been claimed before that steadman polls are secretly sponsored by the Kibaki Admin. If the same still holds, why rule out that this is a strategy by kibaki to have Raila relax on his campaign.
The truth is that the poll right now make Raila feel like he is already in statehouse (Just like phil does).
Come January he will be crying foul on rooftop!!!!
And Kibaki will be Pale pale.

Anonymous said...

Steadman opinion polls-Are both PANU and ODM winners?

Many people reacted differently to the recent results that put Raila ahead of Kibaki.
Without getting into the methodoly and correctness of the results, my view is that PANU may have effectly have gained more.
The PANU side has been asleep in terms of campaigns.Not so for ODM who have dominated the press all through out.
We have seen the same hands off approach from the poll results,as happened during the 2005 referendum.
PANU side have it that "development speaks for itself"
The shocker is that historically, this is far from the truth.If it was,then the Democrats in the USA would not have stayed out of power for the long it took them to have Clinton elected as the president.
Democrats in the USA have always had the best laid out manifestos.yet this didnt work until Linton changed the game plan. Ie is to play with the political passion of the voters.
We are faced with the same scenario in Kenya.
If the recnt poll results is as helpful for ODM propaganda machine, it is equally good as a wake up call for PNU.
The assumption that the government will have it all is a fallacy that has been made to sink in the minds of the PANUers.

While the ODM reflects a united outfit, Kibaki must move fast to unify his generals.The issue of joint rather than seperate nomination of both parliamentary and civic candidates is proving a nightmare.It is a serious issue that threatens to tear PNU apart since sitting MPs are squarely fighting off the aspirants ( most are more popular than the MPS-this august house was the worst in performance in the history of independent Kenya).

Whatever happens on Sunday during the official launching of Kibaki's presidential campaigns
,vis-a-vis the nomination thorny issue will deterine the outcome of this years General elections.

Kalonzo of Ho dihem has nothing to worry about the 2 Horse( though Raila call it Horse versus chameleon) race. Time has ruled him out as a serious contender!

Anonymous said...

And you Kenyans happily politic while your score in income inequality is abysmal.

How will you ever attain real development or even peace when neither PANUA nor all Oranges is discussing wealth distribution.

Go ahead and enjoy the voting season. Elections 2007 will be Wanjiku's biggest non-event.


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