For some time now, I have noted an emerging trend amongst grassroot Kenyans and potential voters that I have mostly kept quiet about. I have kept mum because I did not quite believe what the statistics and reports I was receiving were saying. In other words, it was all too good to be true.
What I must emphasize today is that the views that you read in this blog from readers are mostly elitist and hardly reflect what people on the ground are really saying. For instance it has always been assumed that the massive Kikuyu vote in Nairobi and Central province will all rally behind Kibaki. Some of our brothers from that community have been very abusive in emphasizing their points here in this blog, to the extent where certain offended readers have urged me to delete their comments and at times I have done so (that is how offensive and abusive they get sometimes).
Information that I continue to gather on the ground indicates that a huge chunk of the Nairobi Kikuyu vote will definitely not go to President Kibaki. There are several reasons but the most significant emerges from the sizable number of hawkers who say that Kibaki has been the enemy of hawkers and that he will definitely NOT receive their votes despite being a member of the Gikuyu community. I need not add the fact that this is a very influential group that could easily tilt the scales in a certain direction.
In 1992, then presidential candidate, Kenneth Matiba quietly campaigned amongst hawkers and matatu touts and drivers and shocked everybody when he beat Mwai Kibaki by a sizeable amount of votes. There are those who believe that the real winner of those elections was Matiba.
Interestingly a lot of these Kikuyu votes are much more likely to go to Kalonzo than Raila (according to the info, data and figures I have collected).
This is just one of the many issues that are emerging which will only contribute to making the forthcoming elections the most complex in the history of the country.
The money is in what you enjoy most
Regular violent wife rape by a dutiful husband.
What you are saying Chris, and I agree with you totally, is that ODM is stronger than NARC-K in Nairobi Province. And this will remain so even if there is a fall out in ODM. Infact, my take is that ODM is now poised to win all the Nairobi parliamentary seats with a landslide, only if Uhuru Kenyatta agrees to shift his political base from Gatundu to Dagoretti as aptly advised by Raila Odinga sometime in 2006. Remember, Kibaki was once upon time defeated by one Mrs. Jael Mbogo for the Bahati parliamentary seat in Nairobi, and that prompted him to shift base to Othaya. Uhuru should read the signs of the times and shift to Dagoretti where his family owns a huge chunk of land and his late father's wife lives. Infact he will have shed the tag of a tribal chief and he will set himself up to a very strong position in forthcoming presidential polls, with an assured parliamentary seat. In the meantime, this government ought to know hawkers are a feature all over the world and one doesnt need to unleash overzealous city council askaris on hapless hawkers in the name of cleaning up the CBD.
ReplyDeleteI am happy that Chris has actually written that the views expressed by the readers are elitist and not a true reflection of what is on the ground. Chris you once bragged here that raila07.com receives thrice the traffic received by both kalonzomusyokaforpresident.com and kalonzomusyokafoundation.org. i didnt bother responding to u coz it is common knowledge that less than 5% of kenya's population have internet access. the feeling on the ground my friend has never been more different.
ReplyDeleteWhen it comes to Nairobi hawkers voting out Kibaki, I am afraid u are being too opptimistic. Odm as a party has more followers in Nairobi than Narc k but when these so called luminaries continue with their individual bids then Kibaki will carry the day in nairobi just like in the other areas of the country. However those Kalonzo supporters in nairobi are the non kikuyus. I see Kibaki getting something close to 50% in nairobi leaving Kalonzo,Raila and Uhuru to share the spoils in the other half.
As expected, when the orange explodes,it will be hard to beat Kibaki guys whether we like it or not. If moi won the elections against a divided opposition with 36 and37 percent scores,Kibaki will easily romp home in the event Uhuru and Kalonzo quit odm or make it difficult for the other guys forcing them out.
About Uhuru taking advice from Raila, I think he will contest in Kamukunji and not Dagorretti. The vaccant seat in nairobi is Kamukunji. It strangely has not attracted any candidates worth writing about. If Jimmy Orengo decides to try his luck there then I would be happy if Uhuru contested in makadara. A united ODm will win Lang'ata,Makadara,Kamukunji,Kasarani,and Starehe. They will in my opinion lose Dagoretti and Westlands to the ladies. U just remember that I have been wrong before
Vikii count Makadara, Starehe, Kamukunji and Kasarani out of your equation whether ODM is united or not. The only constituencies ODM will win in Nairobi is Langata and maybe Westlands. Westlands by the way is a BIG IF!
ReplyDeletePhil Says,
ReplyDeleteVikii, internet traffic is crucial and thats why all aspirants have websites.You supporters can access your website 24/7. Supporters are voters and non-voters. In Nairobi, internet penetration, I believe, is much higher than the national percentage. In a presidential election contest in Kenya the incumbency always enjoys a headstart over the rest. This is something Kibaki's minders failed to capitalise on during the referendum. And the referendum could be a peek of whats in store for Kibaki and his MPs later this year. Tribal voting patterns it seems remain only in a few regions in Kenya. I dont know whether he will accept to be leader of official opposition come this time next year!
What vikii said is that less than 2 million people have a reliable access to the internet. This translates to less than a million voters. Out of those very few have time to waste in visiting these websites or blogs like these. I believe Kibaki has more support in rural areas than the other guys. he is followed by Kalonzo in these areas. When it comes to towns Kalonzo leads the pack followed by Raila Odinga. That is exactly where odm looses the game. Their supporters are urban dwellers who would rather spend christmas in Mlolongo than pay thousands of shillings to go to shaggs to vote. And again those shouting loudest in support of Kalonzo and Raila are the youth who are better criticising and cheer leading (Depending on where u stand) than voting.
ReplyDelete