How Democracy And The Will Of The People Can Thrive In All These Chaos

The truth is that both major political parties in the country are far from being stable and even as they insist on doing the impossible of sticking together in their coalitions until Election Day, it is clear that they are fighting a losing battle.

And maybe the solution is to stop trying so hard to mix oil with water and to let nature take it's course. The most likely scenario is that we will end up with more than twenty presidential candidates with at least 10 strong tribal chiefs which will deny the incumbent the 25 per cent he needs in 5 provinces to be declared winner. The result is that there will be a run off, and the coalitions can then be reinstated then, after the people of Kenya have been given a chance to speak. Incidentally forming coalitions now is another way of denying the voter a voice. Steadmann does not vote, as Raila reminded the press two days ago. And I add, neither do rude abusive comments on the Internet count. So let's see how popular our favorite candidates really are.

It is interesting the way everybody has assumed that Kibaki will easily get the required 25% in enough provinces to be declared winner. This assumption ignores the fact that a president's votes under the current system is strongly influenced by winning MPs countrywide. The last time I checked, there is a serious rebellion within Narc-Kenya pitting current MPs who are mostly very unpopular with the electorate against those who have been doing their groundwork over the last 3 years or so. This has caused the postponement of the polls recently and it is unlikely that those polls will ever be held. So the likely thing that will happen here is that the Narc-Kenya high command will stick with the incumbent MPs and the disgruntled popular candidates on the ground may just opt for another presidential candidate as they defect to other parties (they will have a huge choice this time round as the number of briefcase parties being churned out at the AGs chambers daily is unprecedented in the history of Africa). Even if the Narc-Kenya high command embraces the popular candidates on the ground, the incumbents will defect and they are bound to do exactly the same thing.

That's why I laughed a little too loudly when an amateur analyst told me two days ago that the problems within ODM are much more serious than those within Narc-Kenya as far as the presidential race is concerned.

Real Gikuyu man answers lonely frustrated beauty who complained to Kumekucha about her lovers of the past.