General Elections in Kenya in 2006?

At the beginning of this year ODM leading light, Raila Odinga made the prediction that Kenyans should be prepared to go for General Elections this year -- one year earlier than the scheduled 2007.

The prediction brings to mind another prediction made by Raila’s late father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, at the beginning of 1991. He predicted the repelling of the notorious section 2a of the constitution that made Kenya a one party state. That was at the height of the struggle for multi-party politics in Kenya and there were those within the then all-powerful ruling party of Kanu who thought that the old man had clean gone out of his mind. However that prediction proved to be very accurate.

Now 15 odd years later, the son of Jaramogi makes this prediction about general elections in 2006. At the time, I must admit that I was one of the people who felt that this was one prediction that was unlikely to be accurate.

Now most Kenyans are “smelling” a general election very close in the horizon and this year, just as Agwambo had predicted.

Before this Armenian mercenaries circus broke, most Kenyans thought that things could not possibly get worse for the crisis-ridden Kibaki administration. They were wrong. The mercenaries saga has caused the current administration to sink even lower. The big question now is when are we going to reach the bottom? Surely it has to be soon. Where else in the world have you heard of foreigners of dubious character confidently swaggering around town talking like they own some banana republic lock stock and barrel? Even where this has happened, it has been kept quiet.

The most amazing thing about this whole issue is why the Artur so-called brother still in the country has not been deported. But then maybe it isn’t so surprising. It is probably just a question of the same old story in Kenya where money talks and miraculously opens every door while firmly shutting the ones that should be shut.

What has been made very clear to Kenyans by this latest Kibaki administration
crisis is that the government IS NOT in control. This is dangerous and it makes a lot of sense to get of such a government as quickly as possible. This is the current mood in Kenya, except that there is the big question of what to replace it with (see separate post).

Parliament has opened today after a long recess that started in October in the run-up to the exorbitantly expensive and totally unnecessary referendum on a new constitution which had been hijacked and “doctored” by the government and was therefore destined to be rejected.

The mood in parliament is deadly for this current government. Politicians allied to the Orange movement will want to take full advantage of the current euphoria to quickly go to the polls and win a new term in their constituencies. They are keenly aware of the fact that the public mood can change quickly and will want to make hey while the sun shines.

This means that a historical vote of no confidence by MPs, to force an early general election is no longer a pipe dream.

There is yet another possibility. The President can decide to pull off another surprise and call for a snap election to try and pull the rug from under the feet of the ODM. In fact everything seems to be ready now. There was previously doubt as to what political party the President would stand with but with the recent announcement that a new party – Narc Kenya has been registered. It is believed that this will be the party under which the President will stand. The current Kenyan constitution does not allow for independent candidates.

Whatever will happen, with every passing day a general election in 2006 is looking more and more likely.