Moi’s Growing Influence And The “Political Game” In Kanu

In the run up to the historical general elections of 2002, I attended a rare meeting between the main opposition politicians and a Christian lobby group for better governance in Kenya. The National Alliance Party of Kenya had already been formed and the Kanu fall-out had unfolded after Kasarani, although NARC had not yet been formed.

The main speaker at that function was President Kibaki (then an opposition leader who had had two unsuccessful stabs at the presidency). It was clear that he viewed the then President Moi with contempt as an over-spending dictator who didn’t know what he was doing. Kibaki’s implied view was that Moi’s social and educational background (he didn’t go to Makerere University and has never been known to play Golf at Muthaiga) was not befitting for a Kenyan president. Kenyans now know different and despite the many crimes and human rights abuses committed by the Moi regime, the former President is rapidly emerging as a hero and definitely the better President. His own prediction that Kenyans would miss him seems to have come true.

Whatever anybody thinks of the former President’s educational or social background, it is now apparent that he is an extremely shrewd politician who seems to have quietly under-studied some of the greatest politicians in Africa. They include the likes of Kenya’s own Tom Mboya (see special feature on him in this blog), and Tanzania’s Mwalimu Julius Nyerere (the all-powerful Kanu of the 1980s was modeled along the lines of Nyerere’s CCM). It is a huge credit to Moi’s political astuteness that he is quietly enjoying his retirement scot-free despite the massive crimes his regime committed. Admittedly the Kibaki administration has made matters easier by being so corrupt that they no longer have the moral authority to do anything about the previous regime’s crimes. (See the latest BBC analysis of graft in Kenya, under Kibaki. They estimate that over $1 billion dollars has been lost to corruption under the current government.)

So if Moi’s influence is growing, what is all the current fuss in Kanu about? Why have Kanu MPs asked Moi to stay out of things as so-called tribal ambitions come to the fore?

There are two distinct possibilities. The first is that Kanu MPs in Rift Valley, including Secretary General William Ruto, are committing political suicide. Anybody who opposes the wishes of the former President is unlikely to win an election anywhere in Kenya’s largest and most represented province. But then this possibility is highly unlikely, more so because the main players are experienced survivors who don’t make too many mistakes, let alone commit political suicide in such an obvious manner.

The second and most likely possibility is that Kanu (led by their de facto leader, the old wily fox called Moi) are putting in place a deadly strategy for victory in 2007. The reality is that the political situation in Kenya has changed and it is unlikely that a Kikuyu candidate can win the Presidency next year. The Nov 21st Referendum clearly demonstrated that there is a massive anti-Kikuyu sentiment among the electorate, which has been brewing for many years but has only recently come to the surface and will grow as the polls draw nearer.

And neither can a Kalenjin (Ruto) presidential candidate succeed. The best bet would be on a neutral candidate whose community has yet to taste the Presidency. To ease out Uhuru Kenyatta from the position of being Kanu’s presidential candidate with minimal fall-out, why not create an opposing force within the party and then later settle for a compromise candidate (preferably after the LDP Presidential candidate is known)? Who says Kalonzo Musyoka cannot be the Kanu candidate after LDP inevitably sanctions Raila? He is still a close friend of the former President and can move back to Kanu at a moment’s notice. Another Kanu presidential candidate possibility is a politician from the highly neutral Coast province. How about Katana Ngala? Or Mardsen Madoka?

All politicians are keenly studying the referendum results because they accurately indicate the expected voting patterns in 2007. You should be doing the same if you want to understand the current political re-alignments taking place.

Kanu’s secret weapon as we head to the polls (which everybody seems to have shifted attention from) is the most experienced politician alive in East Africa today – Daniel Moi. It is that common situation in soccer all over again, where the defense ignores the older, slower striker and instead concentrates on marking the younger faster attacking player. The inevitable always happens – the older more experienced man ends up scoring from an unmarked position.

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STOP PRESS… opps I mean STOP POST

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