Followers

Thursday, January 31, 2013

Inside the TNA And Cord Campaign Strategies: The Gloves Come Off

Kumekucha Exclusive
 
Politics is dirty and calling it a game is an understatement. Many young Kenyan voters are new to it and I see them naive and excited in social media focusing all their attention on the surface and on the wrong things. This is sad because they are the most important swing vote in this election.
Anyway the big question here is what is going on inside the TNA and CORD campaigns? What kind of strategic thinking is going on?

The CORD campaigns are informed by the controversial opinion polls which put them ahead. But the old experienced hands behind that campaign are not missing a trick. Sample the following;

Moses Wetangula was carefully chosen to be the one to take a swipe at Uhuru Kenyatta concerning the large tracts of land that were grabbed by his father and the foundation of his immense wealth. The right response would have been to completely ignore that statement. Instead the eager youngsters at TNA took the bait hook line and sinker and where many Kenyan were not even aware of what Wetangula had said they helped broadcast it far and wide by lodging a complaint with IEBC claiming that the statement was bound to incite people to violence amongst other things. That complaint received much more coverage than the original statement madeat a campaign rally. Game shot. In the last few days CORD has followed up with even Raila Odinga himself calling for the Kenyatta land to be returned and some of it donated to IDPs.

Naturally the impact of all this was completely lost to most people living in the comfort of Nairobi. The truth is that land is a very emotive issue in Kenya and the kind of thing that could easily influence millions of votes in rural Kenya, especially in areas where there is a huge shortage of land and Kenyans are feeling boxed in. Admittedly this may not have much effect in Central province where the problem is acute but it will certainly have the desired impact in many other parts of the country including the Coast.

The TNA strategy is informed by the following figures of registered voters;

Central province Kikuyus; 2,190,477
Meru/Embu;  866,329
Kikuyu in Rift Valley; 1,166,146
Kalenjin: 1,523,325
Nairobi; 1,778,903

It is no secret that a vast majority of the Kikuyu vote is solidly behind Uhuru. My information on the ground is that at least 40% of the Kalenjin vote at the moment is behind the Jubilee alliance. In Nairobi popular candidates like Ferdinand Waititu and Mike Sonko whose followers will do as they are told means that the son of Jomo has at least 60% of the city vote already in his pocket. You do not need to be a statistician to realize that Uhuru would win without breaking into a sweat if elections were held today, the scientific opinion polls not withstanding.

CORD supporters may spend the whole day on social media making it look like CORD has popular support in Nairobi and people may release highly scientific opinion polls (that defy common sense, according to Dr Mukhisa Kituyi) but that does not change the facts. People like you and this blogger who believe they are very well informed and wise could sit down and try and analyze voting patterns like we were in the United States, but that would still not change the figures which I have put before you today in black and white.

According to TNA and according to this blogger TNA are ahead in the polls. And if elections were held today they would win. What CORD need to really get worried about is why somebody would be so keen and enthusiastic to convince them that they are ahead.

However that was just a by the way because this post is about strategy and NOT faulty opinion polls.

If you have been observant enough you will have noticed that Uhuru has started injected Kikuyu statements into his campaign speeches. This is deliberate and he is simply locking in his votes and reminding the house of Mumbi not to forget that one of their own is in need.

In the coming days we should expect more vicious attacks from the two main political coalitions. CORD will continue to talk a lot about land and political dynasties. They will also focus on those who were in the no campaign at the time of referendum for the new constitution and they will want to discuss with wananchi the reason why those prominent individuals like William Ruto (now in TNA) were so strongly opposed to the new constitution.

TNA will do all that needs to be done to ensure a high voter turn out in Central province and Rift Valley and the Kikuyu comments in speeches should continue when Uhuru is before his supporters. Everything else you will see Jubilee do will be a smoke screen.

Third force
Unknown to most Kenyans apart from the big two coalition parties that are favourites to win there is a third force in these elections influencing things enormously. My money is on this third force being the final say on who the next president of Kenya will be. That force is State house and all the state resources that are controlling more things in these elections than most Kenyans will ever believe. Their preferred candidate and the sensational things that are about to happen in the coming months is pretty sensitive and it is something that I cannot discuss in an open forum such as this one. However subscribers to my raw notes have already been receiving some of this information and will be receiving more sizzlers in the days and weeks to come. You can subscribe to my free raw notes updates so that you at least have an idea of what is being discussed.


Will Sakaja's inexperience cost Uhuru the election?

Monday, January 28, 2013

Mzungus have never been corrupt, that’s why Synovate poll is 1000% true

Social media is a wonderful tool. For the first time in history anybody can literally read the mind of the public. In earlier centuries some people could only accurately guess public opinion but they profited enormously from their guesses, one wonders what those clever chaps would have done with the info freely accessible on social media today.

But spend a little time on social media and you will realize that our so-called elite and cream of society do not have any thoughts of their own. It is amazing how people repeat exactly what they have heard in the media like the obedient parrot. And folks that media iko na wenyewe and they have their very clear agenda. Or is the problem our educational system in recent years that encourages cramming and memorizing what is written in the text books so that you can reproduce it word for word in the exam room. There is never any time for students to delve into free thought, experimentation and discovery and the result of that seems to be coming out very clearly.

It is also crystal clear that most people don’t understand politics at all. They believe that American politics is “safi kama pamba” and Kenyan politics should be the same. I wish somebody could make a Nigerian movie (the only way a vast majority on social media learn anything about this life) that focuses on the global nature of politics. But meanwhile I would recommend a popular TV series called Boss which is captivating tale in the backdrop of big city politics in the US. Trust me it is anything BUT boring. Incidentally to most folks on social media that is the most dreaded six letter word (boring). Many young people fear it more than they fear Aids.

The other big problem Kenyans seem to have is this total trust for mzungus. I read between the lines of many comments and this clearly comes out. But I met this guy the other day who spelt it out for me and left no doubt. He reckons that just because the Synovate opinion poll is done by a mzungu it is 100 per cent accurate. He added that it is impossible to corrupt a mzungu because they have principles. This guy is a university graduate no less, albeit in the sciences. I kid you not. I pointed out to him that his perception of white people is dangerous and told him the story of this guy from Europe who went to Uganda a few years ago and started collecting cash all over the place from people who believed they were investing in a brand new airline that was set to be launched in East Africa. The poor Ugandans were falling over themselves to give that mzungu conman cash. They were sure he was not a conman because he was a mzungu. I will talk a little more about opinion polls in Kenya and their dark history in a future post very soon. But you can begin to understand why Kenyans have such short memories and nobody remembers the Synovate fiasco of 2007.

There is another friend who has suggested that the main problem online is the fact that all the major political players have too many of “their people” on social media and their mission is to make their candidate look good all the time.

Whatever the problem is, clear headed debate and political discussions are impossible. Many are even quick to accuse you of incitement when you start asking some hard questions or analyzing what should be obvious to a primary school kid.

Oh shucks what’s the point. Maybe I should just get used to supporting TNA because it has a lot of young guys with swag. Swag will probably create employment and solve our other pressing problems over the next 5 years. Or support Raila because he has suffered a lot for this country, never mind the fact that many others have suffered more like Kenneth Matiba who has had his health damaged permanently in his crusade for a better Kenya.

Or even better, lets vote for Peter Kenneth because he is the most handsome man to ever stand for president of Kenya.

Those Kenyans who have been calling for issue-based campaigns must be mad. To discuss what issues with whom? That’s rocket science in Kenya with the kind of “swag-related issues” being discussed by the elite of Kenya.

Oh boy!!!!



Popular articles in Kumekucha
Low-lifes want to mess up our country 

Will Sakaja's inexperience cost TNA the presidency? 

The Kikuyu question 

3 Big horses for Nairobi Senator

Saturday, January 26, 2013

3 BIG horses for Nairobi Senator

Battle for Nairobi Senator
From left to right; Maina Njenga, Bishop Margaret Wanjiru and Mike Sonko

If you thought that the battle for Nairobi senator would be a 2 horse race, then think again. Controversial former Mungiki leader Maina Njenga has been cleared to contest the seat by the Mkenya Solidarity Movement party.



His remarks on being cleared are even more interesting; “The party chose on me because I have a plan to transform the city and improve the lives of the people of Nairobi,”  Njenga told the press.



If some Nairobians have been throwing up because of the front runner for Nairobi governor, one Ferdinand “rusha mawe” Waititu, then one wonders what they will do when they realize who two of the front runners for Nairobi senator are.



Although I have said that I am with the low-lifes in my political views and thinking, I can imagine a high powered delegation seeking a twin city deal with Nairobi, say from London sitting down with a meeting with governor Waititu and senator Sonko. You can imagine the quality of that conversation. But alas that is for the majority of voters to decide. Since you Nairobians have promoted policies that have encouraged slums over the last 30 years or so, it is time to pay your dues, is it not?



The local media seems to have a policy of giving Njenga a blackout as much as possible and for good reason. People still fear Njenga because to them he still represents the dreaded Mungiki whose signature has always been decapitation.



Like him or hate him, there is no doubt that Njenga will start out as joint favourite with Sonko to be the first senator of the city. The truth is that Njenga still draws huge crowds and will have no problem collecting hundreds of thousands of votes before he even opens his mouth to say a single word.



Nairobi has 1,778,903 verified voters and this is one race that will be impossible to call. Actually it could go to any of the 3 candidates.



Nairobi has a huge number of Mungiki sympathizers who will vote Njenga and in this way he could pip both Sonko and Wanjiru. It is also possible for Sonko to win by a small margin because he too has massive support in the city. A third scenarios is also possible. And that is Sonko and Njenga could split the votes and Wanjiru could then end up winning by a small margin.



At this rate the race for president will be pretty boring in comparison to the battle of Titans that will be going on in Nairobi seeking the governor’s and senatorial seat respectively.



It is now abundantly clear why ODM has been so eager to avoid fielding a Luo candidate for the senatorial seat namely Elizabeth Ongoro who incidentally has booked her place in history books by being the first minister in Kenya to give birth while in office, which happened in November 2011 when she was assistant minister for Nairobi Metropolitan Development (see picture at the bottom of this post). What ODM has been doing switching around people and claiming that they are settling disputes is very wrong. Why hold nominations and collect hefty fees from candidates when you know you are going to give somebody a direct nomination? Incidentally when they give direct nominations they should refund all monies spent including campaign cash to all aspirants. That is only fair isn’t it? Anyway I digress.



Ongoro’s candidature would have caused the race for senator to degenerate into a tribal issue. I am not sure what Mrs Ongoro was thinking putting herself up for the seat but clearly she would have lost both the seat and plenty of dignity. Nairobi politics like the politics of any big city is ruthless and certainly not for the feint-hearted.



So which of the 3 candidates will win Nairobi senator? Your guess is as good as mine although I would put my money on Mike Sonko.
 



Immediate former Kasarani MP Elizabeth Ongoro at Nairobi hospital on 15th November 2011 shortly after she gave birth to a boy. The legislator worked until the last day without taking any maternity leave from politics. 

Like this Kumekucha Facebook page to receive the latest updates and analysis on the Kenyan presidential elections 2013 and MORE.

Friday, January 25, 2013

The Kikuyu question

The problem with blogging in Kenya today is that nobody will allow you to be horseless. So go ahead and brand me but the truth is that I do NOT support any of the two major coalitions. What tribe am I ? Honestly I have no tribe (the truth). My mum was Luhya, my dad was Kamba and I was born in Kisumu, my first born has Kikuyu blood flowing through her veins and can even speak the language fluently.

My personal political view on the presidency is that both Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta are NOT good for Kenya.

I don’t like Mary Wambui because I have a lot of privileged information on what she has been up to in the 10 years that her husband has been in power. BUT I will NOT support anybody who plays around with the will of the people and denies her, her nomination certificate to contest the general elections. We MUST respect the will of the people and I don’t care who you are, the rule applies.

Clearly we have a major problem in our hands as we go into the general elections in a few weeks. The people who suffered the most in the troubles of 2008 were our Kikuyu brothers and sisters indeed as you read this tens of thousands of them are still in camps, refugees in their own country. What can be sadder than that?

Still any criticism you level against Uhuru Kenyatta today is seen as an attack on the Kikuyu community. Why??? When Jomo Kenyatta grabbed large tracts of land what was written on the title deeds? The Kikuyu community?? Nope. The name on the them is Kenyatta. Why then is it seen as an attack on the Kikuyu when we talk about the evil Kenyatta committed when he was in office?

We often talk about Moi’s 24 year misrule. I don’t see my Kalenjin friends coming out red with rage and telling me that I am attacking the Kalenjin community? Why then is it different with the Kikuyu?

The answer is simple. President Kibaki’s presidential campaign in 2007 is the kind of campaign that must never be allowed in our shores ever again. And it seems that we are yet to shake off its’ effects. Public meetings addressed in Kiswahili but campaign managers going round later and speaking to the people in vernacular and telling them that it is a war against the other community. By the time we went into the elections it was a Kikuyu versus the rest of Kenya election. Why???? Why when the Kikuyu have suffered more than any other  community during Kibaki’s tenure? Why when we love our Kikuyu brothers and sisters and live peacefully on the ground with them and even marrying their beautiful lasses without any hassle? Why does it have to be different in politics?

In 1957 a Luo man called Tom Mboya beat a Kikuyu opponent called Munyua Waiyaki for the Nairobi area seat in the Legco. 95% of the voters were Kikuyus. Those days most locals were illiterate or with very poor educational backgrounds if any. Why then should we have a problem in 2013 when we have very educated Kenyans? Have we grown more stupid and tribal with more education?

We urgently need to find a way to ensure that any criticism against Uhuru Kenyatta is NOT seen as an attack on the Kikuyu community. He is an individual seeking high office and we need to interrogate him, we are not interrogating the community he happens to belong to.

Read the other Chris Kumekucha post today;
 

Will Sakaja’s inexperience cost TNA the presidency?

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Will Sakaja’s inexperience cost TNA the presidency?


Johnson Sakaja the chairman of TNA just recently celebrated his 28th birthday. Admittedly his experience in student politics at the University of Nairobi is useful in his new role as chairman of a popular national political party because SONU politics can sometimes get pretty rough and dirty.

His profile also says that he played a key role in the “re-election” of Mwai Kibaki in 2007 (ouch!!!!). I am still reviewing video footage of those who attended the bedroom swearing in at State house in 2008 (invited before the election results were announced) but I think I have a great chance of spotting Sakaja.


I have no problem with youth. Indeed I have said many times here that this country would be better off with a president who was under 40 years of age. I still hold strongly to those views.


Still there is no substitute to experience and this was proved yesterday when Sakaja made a very major blunder. So major is this blunder that it could easily turn the direction of this presidential election and lose Uhuru an election that he was going to win by a landslide.


Before I tell you what that blunder is, let me tell you a story. I was recently on the bus from Mombasa to Nairobi and struck up a conversation with this young pretty lass (why can’t this young women leave me alone?) From her slight accent and striking beauty I knew that she was Wiper Democratic Movement property but when I asked her who she was going to vote president, her answer shocked me.


“Uhuru,” she said without hesitation.


My point is that Uhuru Kenyatta has managed to attract a lot of votes from numerous young Kenyans who find it easier to identify themselves with a younger person. These young Kenyans know very little about the history of their country and have no time to delve into the details of boring ancient history. After all any titbit they want to know Bwana Google will tell them.


Now the big blunder Sakaja made was to complain about Wetangula’s recent remarks about a presidential candidate who was using wealth gained from grabbed land for his campaigns and also to bribe voters.


In recent times both CORD and Jubillee presidential candidates have been taking a swipe at each other and some of those swipes have been pretty personal. Many Kenyan voters have missed them, even those in Nairobi because incase you did not know we are all suffering from what somebody called “information overflow”. That is there is so much information flying at us from all directions that we ignore most of it and only pay attention to what we think is the most important.


Gullible Sakaja took Wetangula’s bait and in one master stroke has brought to national attention his presidential candidate’s soft under belly. The right strategy would have been to ignore the remark but if he felt that he must attract attention to himself and the party in some way he should have issued a statement that takes away attention from why Uhuru Kenyatta is so wealthy. Perhaps something about the TNA party being a party of youths where all folks who are over 50 are in the council of elders of the party.


As it is Sakaja’s complaint has attracted a lot of media attention and Kenyans are discussing it all over the place. And the younger Kenyans are asking if it is true. I laugh when I hear young people ask whether there is evidence. It would take any lawyer about 15 seconds flat to prove that Jomo Kenyatta was indeed a serious land grabber. Nobody did more than him to set the stage for the post election troubles of 2008. But I digress.


Many Kenyans lost their lives as a direct result of the grand old man’s appetite for land. It is instructive that the very first major political assassination in Kenya which took place when Kenya as a nation was barely a 2 year old toddler, was linked to Jomo Kenyatta’s land grabbing. I am of course talking about the ugly shooting of Pio Gama Pinto right in front of his 6 year old daughter. (Get all the details from my book Political assassinations in Kenya available for FREE to regular Kumekucha readers only). The bottom line is that this is still an extremely sensitive issue that could cost Uhuru millions of votes.


Why did Wetangula bring it up? Was he perhaps jealous and a little frightened about the kind of money the Jubilee coalition is spending? Difficult to tell, but Sakaja messed up big time and I am not sure if the Uhuru campaign is going to be able to recover from this one. Let’s wait and see shall we?


P.S. - The Jubilee Coalition will spend an estimated Sh10 billion in campaigns. Last week, Uhuru's TNA acquired 10 branded four-wheel-drive vehicles at an estimated cost of Sh30 million. The vehicles painted red with Uhuru's name on the side are to be used to transport TNA staff during rallies and roadshows. Late last year, Uhuru's running mate William Ruto of URP acquired five four-wheel-drive vehicles and bought a chopper. The two Jubilee leaders now have four choppers at their disposal — two of which they own and the other two hired by the Uhuru campaign on an as needed basis.



More about Sakaja
Sakaja Johnson, the National Chairman of TNA is currently the Principal Partner at Arthur Johnson Consultants which offers financial and strategic advisory services to Governmental and Private business entities in Kenya. He began his foray into national politics through student politics at the University of Nairobi (NASA – as vice chair of the Actuarial Students Association and later in SONU). Sakaja Johnson studied Actuarial Science and is currently pursuing Political Economics where he found his interests lie. He has been involved in National Politics since the 2005 referendum and played a key role in the 2007 re-election of H.E. Mwai Kibaki. Sakaja was also instrumental in the constitution making process being a key consultant to the COE and Parliamentary Select Committee on the Constitution on the issue of Representation and helped formulate the formula for delimitation of electoral boundaries in Kenya. He has also co-authored a book together with the International Commission of Jurists (ICJ – Kenya Chapter) on Representation and Fiscal Decentralisation having particularly written the chapters on the Technical Framework for Devolution. Sakaja is also an avid musician and plays bass guitar for a local music band.

Sakaja hails from Western province.

TNA  is run by young people between 30 and 35; the chairman, Mr Johnson Sakaja, is under 30. Those above the age of 50 will be accommodated in the parties Council of Elders, which is an organ of the party.

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Mary Wambui: Dirty family politics

Mary Wambui wa Munene: Fuming at the TNA offices yesterday when she discovered that no nomination certificate was forthcoming. 

===========================
Sayings of the wise before you elect your leaders;“The wealthier a person is the more likely it is that they hate the human community.”



===========================

Yesterday it was revealed that the President’s second wife Mary Wambui had been denied the TNA nomination certificate because an appeal lodged by her closest rival was being looked into, according to a statement from TNA headquarters. The appeal claimed that Wambui had bribed voters through her driver and even forged a letter of resignation from TNA purportedly written by her rival Gichuki Mugambi.

To those who know Wambui’s saga well it was amusing to realize that she is now using the name Munene which actually started as nickname early in the Kibaki presidency when people started calling her Wambui wa Munene. (Meaning Wambui who belongs to the big boss).

Wambui is probably the most feared woman in Kenya today despite her appearing pretty meek on TV and even invoking the name of God and saying that she was going to pray about the whole issue. She met the press flanked by her infamous daughter Wangui who is reported to have gotten married to one of the infamous Artur brothers.

Interestingly Wambui continues to enjoy state security although the president has publicly denied that he has any relationship with her.

Clearly the first family is behind Wambui’s current woes to be the heir of President Kibaki’s parliamentary seat.

Impeccable sources had informed this blogger earlier that the initial plan was for Wambui to go for a senatorial seat while Jimmy Kibaki (the president’s son by his first wife) would go for his father’s parliamentary seat. Those close to the first family were relieved because it appeared that an embarrassing political mud fight between the two wives and their children had been averted. However Wambui’s plan hit a snag when talk started about a Senatorial candidate being required to hold a university degree. She opted to play it safe and go for the parliamentary seat instead. Wambui did not go past class 7 and was brought up in an extremely poverty stricken environment.

It is worth noting that Wambui has been the chief campaigner for the president for years and was instrumental in intervening when former president Moi attempted to rig Kibaki out of his Othaya parliamentary seat in the infamous 1988 mlolongo (lining up) general elections. She quickly mobilized supporters who came out ready for trouble (complete with pangas) and frantic phone calls had to be made by the DC (the returning officer in those elections) to Nairobi after which the already announced results which indicated that Kibaki had been defeated were reversed and the future president made it back to parliament.

It is no secret that the president’s other family are behind concerted efforts to ensure that she does not inherit the Othaya seat. Last night frantic phone calls were being made all over the place which reminded me of the saying that when two elephants are fighting it is the grass that bear the brunt of the battle. Tension is still very high in Othaya even as you read this.

In the announced results Wambui beat her bitter rival Gichuki Mugambi by 13,050 votes to 10,080

I will keep you informed on how this amazing saga develops.


Mary Wambui to sue TNA over nomination

Like this Kumekucha Facebook page to receive the latest updates and analysis on the Kenyan presidential elections 2013.

Breaking News:
Mary Wambui has finally received her nomination certificate this evening and is now officially the TNA candidate for the Othaya parliamentary seat that has been Mwai Kibaki's for close to 40 years.  Read Daily Nation story.

Interestingly Wambui has always shunned the media but this time she freely gave interviews about her predicament and it seems the publicity over the issue caused the dark figures fighting against her nomination to give up their fight to frustrate her.

However this does not necessarily mean that the bid to stop her winning the parliamentary seat is over.

Kumbe bado..... 9:36PM Kenyan time 23/1/2013

Ooops latest reports indicate that there is still a hitch with the Othaya TNA ticket. Mary Wambui says it is not over yet despite assurances from the TNA. And sure enough her challenger Gichuki Mugambi has the nomination certificate and says that parties do NOT have the power to revoke it once it has been issued. Wow!!! wonders will never cease.

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Low-lifes want to mess up our country


This is the most important post I have written in a very long time and I am not ashamed to say that I write it with tears trickling down my cheeks.

My parents were not rich but I was brought up fairly comfortably. I never went hungry and I was dropped at school by car every day. I was never sent home even once because of my fees not being paid.

But I am also very grateful for the experience I had when I finished my sixth form and decided to move out of my father’s house right away. The first thing that hit me hard was when I realized that I could not afford to pay rent on my own anywhere near the Kileleshwa neighbourhood where my dad resided at the time. Even the servants quarters available in the area were way out of my reach as a freelance journalist and aspiring writer. I ended up in Riruta a reasonable middle class estate at that time but not far from the sprawling Kawangware slums. I was shocked that there were pit latrines anywhere close to Nairobi and filthy ones at that. I was yet to discover that this was sheer luxury compared to the good folks at Kibera who do not have toilets at all and have to use paper bags which they then throw all over the place. But I was overjoyed to be independent. I am grateful to God every day that I was born the kind of person who can be comfortable virtually anywhere.

That was the beginning of my education on how most Kenyans live this life. Always the curious type I ventured into many slum areas making friends easily and learning what I thought would always be for my own consumption.

I learnt how most kids in this area love to drink plenty of water because they are hungry most of the day and will only have a single meal in a day (which more often than not will not even be enough). And so they fill their stomach with water to dull the hunger pangs. I went hungry myself many times as I struggled to prove to myself and my dad that I was capable of taking care of myself.

I saw things that made me wonder whether I was still in Kenya. One particular encounter in the Kibera slums just floored me and has haunted me since.

In Kibera Kenyans who have gone without food for a few days usually hang around on the roads and deliberately throw themselves in front of a passing car that is not moving too fast. The whole idea is to get some kind of payment “to go to hospital” from the “rich” driver of the vehicle. And it works sometimes. The hungry young man may get hit quite badly sometimes but at least he ends up with a few coins given to him to go to hospital but which he will use to buy some food. I once asked a friend in the slums if the people who do this do not fear death. His answer shocked me to my bones. For people who live in these slum areas death is sometimes a welcome escape from the life of hopelessness they live every day. And thus many of them do not fear death. The immediate motive is to eat but if they die that is even better because they will never need to worry again about what they will eat tomorrow.

With this kind of background I get sick hearing some NGO-type still burping and farting from her six course lunch appear on national TV and give Kenyans wonderful theories about why Waititu should be barred from contesting. Or the fat journalist still sweating from a nyamachoma lunch who writes a column saying that TNA chaps are crazy to from Waitutu for governor of Nairobi.

Well the low-lifes are the vast majority of voters and fortunately there is nothing anybody can do about that (unless you want to change the constitution and give the chaps at Lavington 3 votes for every single one cast by a low-life). These are the kind of people supporting the political aspirations of Ferdinand Waititu and Michael Gideon Sonko. They are not on social media and neither will they be able to leave a comment here to praise this post despite the fact that internet access is so cheap these days. They have other more basic needs to worry about. But the truth is that Waititu speaks their language and so does Sonko. And that is why you can be sure that those two individuals are as good as already elected.

Over the last few days I have read and heard all kinds of comments about how stupid and ridiculous it is for anybody to imagine Waititu as governor of Nairobi. They have really saddened me.

I have realized that the divide between the haves and the have-nothings has continued to widen considerably because the experiences I describe above are from the late 80s. Between that time and now a lot more has happened to worsen the lot of the less privileged in Kenya. Meanwhile our leaders have continued to behave with arrogance and in a manner that would suggest that it is not true that over 70% of Nairobians live in slums. Is it any surprise that leaders like Waititu and Sonko have attracted the constituency that they have?

I have coined the phrase low-lifes from one of my relatives who really looks down on those less privileged Kenyans and has no time for them. And yet they do not hail from a rich family, in fact she walked to school in her time and was sent home several times for lack of fees. Indeed I have noticed that the worst people are not even the rich but the middle class and those aspiring to be associated with the well to do. I have watched with amusement as some of my brothers get extremely UNcomfortable when I mix freely with the so-called “low lifes.”

Our press is not any better because it has become extremely elitist. Journalists write their stories as if they were in Europe or somewhere in the United States. This would have been laughable if it were not so tragic. And if we were not sitting on a time bomb that will have to explode some day. I remember when I was trying to get into journalism there used to be a small pub somewhere along Moi avenue where journalists mixed freely with the public and many ordinary Kenyans. In those days there were many journalists who lived in Eastlands and especially the parts of Eastlands that are not well to do. In those days the newspapers were much more readable and I wonder these days why the leading daily newspapers don’t simply move to Muthaiga and do all their reporting and coverage there instead of pretending that they represent the masses.

You can keep on looking down on low-lifes, their thinking and political choices but be aware of the fact that their day is coming. Don’t for a minute fool yourself that the walls surrounding your leafy neighborhood house are high enough or that the dogs roaming in your compound are fierce enough to protect you when the time comes.

I write this post well aware of the fact that for all intents and purposes I am playing guitar music to goats. Still I declare today that I stand with the low-lifes of Kenya and all my views and opinions here will reflect that without any fear or embarrassment.

Waititu is the best governor that Nairobi can ever have and if for no other reason at least his elevation will delay the coming violent class wars when the low-lifes wake up one morning and decide that they have had enough.

P.S. If this post did not make any sense to you I recommend that you skip your 2 next meals (you can drink as much water as you wish) and then come back and read this post when you are still hungry. You may just begin to understand it then. There is no way burpers and farters can comprehend the contents here and so I advice that you d not even try.

Like this Kumekucha Facebook page to receive the latest updates and analysis on the Kenyan presidential elections 2013.

Sunday, January 20, 2013

The coming face of Nairobi

This is national politics not an election at the golf club

Nairobi Governor in waiting Ferdinand "Rusha Mawe" Waititu

By M-pesa
During the sham and delayed nominations, Mbaru supporters were impatient and left the queues in a huff because they had to dash back to work quickly.

Waititu's supporters stayed put because most of them are young and jobless youth from various slums in the city like Korogocho, Mukuru, Mathare, Kibera etc. Sonko won by a landslide, it's the same supporters who elected waititu!

Don't forget 70 percent of Nairobians live in various slums and when it comes to elections, they call the shots. Most of them don't read blogs or newspapers, actually they heard of Jimnah Mbaru just a few weeks ago when he declared his candidature.


They see him as the snobbish and golfing type who has never slept hungry. On the other hand, Waititu and Sonko are always the first whenever there's demolition or fire in these slums fighting even physically for them.

I'm not shocked that Waititu sailed through. Once you win the hearts and minds of the poor and oppressed, then nothing else matters in elections. Mbaru even published his CV which is over 30 pages long. To the holloi polloi out there, those are just useless pieces of papers.

Of course to me and you reading this, belching and farting after your five course meal, Mbaru would make the better Governor being a highly decorated technocrat and suave CEO with all his grand plans.

But sorry, that's NOT how democracy works! Majority have their way while minority have their say. I suspect tribeless middle-class in TNA may "defect" to Kidero or still vote Mbaru if he defects to UDF like someone told me he may. But will it be enough to defeat Waititu with all the strong support he has in the slums? Nope!

Saturday, January 19, 2013

Dirty Kenyan Politics Part 3: Nominations

As Ferdinand Waititu secures TNA nomination for governor

Read Part 1 of this article
Read Part 2 of this article

The most surprising thing about the nomination chaos witnessed countrywide is that it has caught many Kenyans unawares.

But why should it when the country has been neatly divided into tribal zones where winning the nomination of the tribe’s political party is an automatic pass to the desired seat? That means that candidates will do anything, and I mean ANYTHING, to get the party nomination. Indeed in many instances the budget for the nominations is much higher than what will be spent on the actual election.

Dirty tricks are much easier to use during nominations because the political parties cannot be as stringent organized and professional as the national electoral body, the IEBC. Is it not much easier to bribe some party official overseeing some nomination process? In any case has anybody carefully examined the real motive for most in taking up the responsibility of being a returning officer for their political party? Let me spell it out for you; personal fundraising. And it is fundraising for big projects like buying a shamba. And fortunately for those with these kinds of motives the 2013 elections are a goldmine.

Remember that we have more elective posts than we have ever had before. And the posts people are going for are pretty powerful. Being an MP is nothing. A governor for instance has more power than the president and will be a true boss in a county. Even senators will have much more clout than members of the national assembly. However most Kenyans at the grassroots level are still to come to terms with these new realities and so to them an MP is still a very important person indeed.

When you take all these facts into consideration then the only conclusion is that the nominations that we have just witnessed went pretty well.

Headquarters of rigging
==========
Most people are unaware of the real politics behind these nominations. Admittedly when a party is popular in a certain region rivals will always try to disrupt things by planting their own less popular candidate and looking for a way for them to win. In other instances they will allow their “planted” candidate to go through on the ticket of the popular party thus having their man or woman on the inside of the rival party for the purposes of passing on information and even voting in their favour when crucial bills come up for a vote.

For this reason party big wigs usually sit in Nairobi carefully monitoring the results coming in from all over the country and where for some reason they doubt the winner (or don’t like them), all they have to do is place a call and strange things start happening on the ground.

Politics can hardly get any dirtier than that.

Waititu Bags TNA Nomination For Nairobi Governor

Just a few days after my much-maligned-Sonko-for-president post rogue MP Ferdinand Waititu has beaten Jimnah Mbaru for the TNA nomination for Nairobi governor.

What is interesting is that Mbaru beat Waititu in the latter’s own backyard of Embakasi. Clearly there is something that went very wrong there.


The bottom line is that Nairobians need to prepare themselves for governor Waititu, as mentioned in this blog many months ago, he is unbeatable.

All in all this is a sign of things to come and Kenyans should be prepared to see a class war clearly emerge in these elections.