“Raila Tosha” Kibaki Finally Utters The Two Magic Words In His Sleep

My late father told me this story many times. He was there.

President Mzee Jomo Kenyatta sat down to lunch in Kakamega shortly before he left for Kisumu on that fateful day in 1969 where his motorcade was stoned in that infamous incident. Those who were there could see that the president was preoccupied and appeared to be in a foul mood. This was confirmed shortly because he hardly touched his soup (which was only the first course). Five minutes later he got up and his motorcade was on the move headed for Kisumu in what was destined to be his last trip to the lakeside city. Clearly Kenyatta was very nervous about that last Kisumu trip.

The late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga

Yesterday President Mwai Kibaki made a historical visit to Kisumu. He received a very warm welcome but appeared to be uncomfortable throughout the proceedings. Predictably most of the politicians who were given an opportunity to speak keptreaching back to history to remind us all that this was no ordinary trip. And they wasted no time in putting the president under immense pressure. They took his mind again and again back to 2002 where Raila Odinga uttered those famous words that changed the course of Kenya’s history, actually just two words “Kibaki Tosha.” They politely told the president that now would be a good time to return that favour. They also wanted the president to rename the Kisumu International airport The Jaramogi Oginga Odinga International airport. The president in his usual style ignored both requests.

History has an uncanny way of repeating itself like some stuck record. Two men (a son and his father) have twice decided the Kenyan presidency and both times they did it conscious of the fact that it would put them in pole position to take over the very same office from those they named.

The late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga told a shocked Legco (Kenyan parliament in those days) that Jomo Kenyatta was like a god to the Kenyan people and there was no way Kenyans were going to consider independence without Kenyatta being freed. With all due respect to the memory of the older Odinga this was nothing but a selfish political move to block a kid on the block who was hurtling at break neck speed towards the presidency. One Thomas Joseph Mboya. Odinga knew that Tom Mboya usually won his elections to parliament with over 90 per cent of the people voting for him being from the Kikuyu community. If Mboya was seen as not being in support of Jomo Kenyatta, he would be wiped out politically.

Historians will want to note that that was one of the very first seeds of tribalism in Kenyan politics ever planted, but that is a post for another day.

What Kenyans still don’t know is that when Raila Odinga 50 years later did exactly what his dad did and said Kibaki Tosha, he was also blocking another man from ascending to the presidency and that man was Simeon Nyachae. Nyachae had made his plans carefully and had managed to position himself as a compromise candidate to take over the presidency of the country for an interim period of one term only t give the other biggies a little time to sort themselves out and come up with one candidate. Using his vast wealth and influence he had enough support to see his long standing ambition through. Raila scuttled Nyacahe’s plans with his famous two words in support of Kibaki. Admittedly Raila’s main motive for backing Kibaki was to ensure the defeat of President Moi and his KANU party.

Now yesterday Mwai Kibaki predictably refused to return the favour that saw him ascend to the presidency. Now if history finishes off this repeat thing Raila will NOT ascend to the presidency. Instead somebody else will come from nowhere and shockingly become the fourth president. Maybe some folks will even call him a passing cloud, but of course he or she will be nothing of the sort.

But enough with the history lessons which bore so many of my readers and lets get to hard ball politics.

The reason why Kibaki’s refusal shocked some insiders is because the president has already made a pact with Raila Odinga. Kibaki will fully support his bid for the presidency and in return President Odinga will protect the Kibakis. And so what happens if President Odinga never happens? It means that Kibaki’s retirement will be extremely uncomfortable.

However the question Kenyans should be asking themselves is are these Raila Toshas and Kibaki Toshas as effective are they used to be? I think NOT. The era of endorsements deciding the presidency is over why are the political class refusing to open their eyes to the new reality? The next election will be decided by the young people of Kenya and they are in a foul mood at the moment and terribly impatient measuring Kenya on the same scale as developed economies whose democracies are over 100 years old. They watch their news and admire the American system of governance and are continually asking themselves why not Kenya?

Presidential candidate Odinga dyes his hair black regularly and there is no doubt that his handlers will want him to spot an even younger look as the presidential campaigns gather momentum. Will that be enough to win the presidency against an extremely crowded field? I think not. I believe that we are headed for a run off when we finally sit down to elect our next president. It will be Raila versus a much younger nobody and that kind of contest will not be good for the courageous but unlucky son of Jaramogi.

I’m keeping my eyes firmly on boring history knowing fully well that the damned thing is going to repeat itself yet again

Tutaona. (we shall see what happens)