That is the question political observers are asking themselves since Uhuru Kenyatta's resignation as finance minister yesterday.
Unlike the emotionally reckless William Ruto who has openly declared he will be on the presidential ballot paper, Uhuru has not made any such direct declarations and remains as guarded as ever on his immediate political future.
As he exited his luxurious red-carpeted Treasury House office yesterday, Uhuru released a statement which indicated that he "looks forward to meeting you all at the grassroots as I traverse the countryside to reassure you all that our mission to give hope to the youth of this country, our vision of seeing a peaceful Kenya and our firm resolve to transform Kenya into a modern first class economy is still on course".
While Ruto has yet to appreciate the gravity of the charges facing him at the ICC, Uhuru appears to have an understanding of how high the stakes have been raised. Power politics is not an easy game to play when one has been indicted by the International Criminal Court. And for anyone to imagine that they can be state president and deputy state president in Kenya while they attend court sessions at the Hague is taking ambition and hope beyond utopian dreams.
Many legal minds, including CIC Chairman Charles Nyachae, have argued that there is nothing legally to bar Uhuru or Ruto to run for president. Even ICC Prosecutor Ocampo has asserted that the issue of elections in Kenya is something for the Kenyans to decide. But here at Kumekucha, being the sober political analysts that we are, we believe the presidential dreams of Uhuru and Ruto have hit a brick wall. Let us examine the reality:
If an Uhuru who is already indicted by ICC cannot serve as as a mere Finance Minister of a grand coalition government - despite presidential back-up to do so - and in a constitution that is in transition, how in God's name will Uhuru be president in our constitution when it is fully functional? How will Uhuru run to be president when he is charged at the ICC with the worst criminal cases that anyone can face in this world?
Granted that the KANU Chairman has his core support among the counties populated by the Agikuyu in the former Central and Rift Valley provinces. Uhuru has also steadily gained popularity ratings on some of our dubious opinion polls and was last reported as closing in on Raila Odinga. But the fact still remains that in the new constitutional dispensation, anyone who wishes to be president must come with a lot more than his ethnic support. The bar has been raised and sadly, both Uhuru and Ruto fail in most of the basic requirements the constitution demands for presidential contenders. The Hague baggage does not help matters.
In a country that is constantly baby-sat by western powers and one that the stability of the entire horn of Africa hinges on, how will someone who is on the same list as Ugandan sadistic warlord Joseph Kony be in the running to form a government in the republic of Kenya?
Someone must be sleep walking to imagine this!
Uhuru and Ruto have only one way to go. They can only support a preferred presidential candidate, and sponsor as much parliamentary and senatorial candidates as they possibly can in 2012. Those candidate must be people they can control like puppets. And that president must be someone they can dictate to. That person is not Kalonzo Musyoka and neither is it George Saitoti. It could be either Raphael Tuju or Eugene Wamalwa, perhaps a pairing of both as candidate and running mate. The possibility of forming the next official opposition could never have been clearer.
Let us see how today's rally at Eldoret's 64 stadium turns out!