Followers

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

You Have Reason To Be Very Afraid

The Kenya shilling recently crossed the Kshs 100 mark against the dollar, and was still galloping furiously as it did so. Obviously not everybody is an economist and so I will deliberately keep the language simple and jargon-free in this post.

The long and short of it is that you have reason to be afraid… very afraid.

One of the reasons you must be very afraid is that all this is happening before the full effects of the 2012 general elections set in. I will tell you what those will be later in this post. But let me start by saying that I ignored the advice of a friend to start this post by referring to my earlier articles warning of this chaotic situation about 3 months ago. I hate it when somebody tells me “I told you so..” and I am sure others hate it too and so I have not even linked to the set of articles I did then. They are really NOT important now.

This is hardly the time to start looking clever and smart and maybe a prophet of sorts when the country is faced with the worst economic crisis of its’ history. Yes, the worst ever in the history of the republic of Kenya. What a feather on the cap of the Kibaki legacy this is!!!

Let’s just cut to the chase and talk about what Kenyans should now expect.

Clearly we have reached panic mode. What that means is that we should now expect massive capital flight. That means that people will flee from the Kenyan shilling to save their cash and assets from further rapid depreciation. This will further erode the value of the already weak shilling. An exchange rate of Kshs 120 to the dollar is not too far in the horizon now.

This will cripple many businesses that rely on imports. Massive layoffs will follow, and businesses should already be shutting down as you read this.

Looking out of your window now all may seem calm, but be warned, it is the calm before the storm which shall surely come.

Who is to blame? Prof Njuguna Ndungu the governor of the Central Bank who waited too long to do anything, even as analysts screamed at the top of their voices that there was a problem? Personally I don’t think so. The main culprit is President Kibaki who has been the real Finance Minister and the real governor of the Central bank all along. His old school economics has run out of legs in the modern world of sudden upheavals and unprecedented unpredictability and chaos. Clearly a younger less “experienced” man would have done much better for Kenya. This is yet another wake up call to Kenya voters to let all the old men go home to rest and let’s elect younger blood for better or for worse to handle the new world.

What really scares me is that as we head to 2012 I was still expecting plenty of capital flight anyway as many in the monied class relocate to avoid paying for their sins under the new fully implemented constitution. Not to mention money markets that will be jittery as we go into another election when the wounds of the last chaotic one have yet to heal. If things continue the way they are then the shilling will probably be exchanging at Kshs 300 by the time we go to the polls.

Wangari Dead: A Petal Lost From Flower Kenya

She came. She battled. She won. She was a first is almost everything she put her head and heart into. The first woman in East and Central Africa to earn a doctorate degree. The first African woman to win the coveted Nobel peace prize in 2004 for her conservation efforts. And now a bright light has been dimmed. The cruel hands of death have snatched Prof Wangari Maathai from our midst. Shame!!

Forget the present-day activists shouting about the NOT-MORE-THAN-TWO-THIRDS provision in the new constitution, Wanagari Maathi was there more than three decades ago and grabbed the whole 100% then. She lived ahead on her time and was a trailblazer leading by example and from infront.

The death of this distinguished lady marks the end of an era epitomized by Wangari's love for nature/trees and environment but above all else her relentless fight for social justice and freedom. Death, how cruel is thee? But we will shame you by choosing to celebrate the productive life of Prof Wangari Muta Maathai, an icon who lived well ahead of her time.

Death has been variously described as the universal equalizer. Maybe but you cannot fail to feel a sense unfairness when it strikes and eliminates those who stand tall for the downtrodden and depressed. Wangari stood up against Moi's oppressive regime and won when the kleptocrat schemed to desecrate Uhuru Park with another concrete monster in the name of Kenya Times Towers.

She defied all African stereotypes by being a first in many spheres including divorce from her husband when it was unfathomable. She may have not stripped naked herself but productive symbolism of leading mothers of political prisoners remains unmatched. One Koigi Wamwere must be feeling a great loss in the passing on former Tetu MP.

She may be gone having succumbed to cancer but Kenya and Kenyans owe her plenty. Our best and fitting tribute to this heroine and lioness would be to remain steadfast against tyranny and aspire to fight for the wider good for our motherland.

FARE THEE WELL Prof Wangari Muta Maathai.

Friday, September 23, 2011

The Owl of Minerva Flies at Dusk

On 3rd November, 1997, as the Asian Financial Crisis raged, the Malysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad stated that, “This DELIBERATE DEVALUATION of the currency of a country by currency traders purely for profit is a serious DENIAL of the rights of independent nations.” We summarily, note that, Mahathir, by giving the IMF and the West one way ticket to hell, he managed to save Malaysia as all other Asian Tigers succumbed. Our Vice President, Wiper Kalonzo was in Malaysia a few weeks ago. We hope, he is armed with what Mahathir did. After all, didn’t he go to learn?

Anyway, for today, our message is that, it seems like our 1997 has come. However, let first us recap. Very worried, and without big budget, stuff, bodyguards, cooks, drivers, big names, big offices and beautiful escorts, on 21st April, 2010, we gave a stern warning in these words:

Let us visit Latvia so as to appreciate what is coming... After the end of Cold War, Latvia and other former Soviet Union republics which HAD NO DEBTS, were “freed” from the “evil Empire.” They were then advised by the West (led by Sachs, he of MDGs in Africa) on how to get rich. One of the ideas they were sold is the financial policy of borrowing in foreign currency for real estate development (speculation) although the income to pay these debts was in domestic currency.Their central banks, just as ours is doing now, would then take these foreign currencies and use to import consumer goods like used women under wears … When this land speculation bubble burst, as it will in Kenya (it need not happen because an attack on our currency will be sufficient), [with such an attack] the only way to support the currency [will be] is by borrowing from foreign official agencies like IMF and the EU. In other words, [we shall] incur external public debts to allow land speculators pay their loans. However, the terms are [will be] extremely destructive to say the least for they will shrink Latvian [Kenyan] economy further because they call for more taxes, sacking of nurses etc. All this is meant to free money to pay foreign creditors. More so, this involves more shift of power from elected leaders to bankers, i.e. modern aristocracy.” This you may read here: http://is.gd/2x1lk0.

We are told that, Prophet Jeremiah wore a yoke around his city so to dramatize to his nation the coming Babylonian yoke. His efforts were in vain. As such, having sounded the prophet’s trumpet in vain, now, with a heavy heart for those who must bear the cross, we can only say that, the owl of Minerva flies at dusk for we are now hearing the FIRE FIGHTERS scrambling to tell us that: “Save the shilling by flooding market with dollars so speculators can lose.” Among other stuff, this FIRE FIGHTER tells us that:


The shilling is badly undervalued. I do not want to shout fire in a crowded theatre... For most dealers it is still a one-way bet... they have made tonnes of money since the shilling started feeling the pressure several months ago. I am not against speculators. This is what capitalism is all about. But if we allow the currency to fall further, the pressures on the macro economy will soon be overwhelming. … If the International Monetary Fund is serious about helping us out, this is the time to give us the dollars. Speculators engaged in amassing dollars must be made to feel some serious pain. That is the language they understand.... the current negative sentiment on the shilling will not change until some of these punters are made to suffer losses.”

and

But in markets that are driven by sentiment, it matters much more than assurances by Central Bank.
The Central Bank of Kenya and the Treasury must realise that if the shilling persists in the present trajectory, the situation may cause a huge political problem for the government. This thing could brew political agitation for the return to exchange controls. That IMF programme they are slavishly applying will not help when the political class starts a loud campaign for the restoration of “the sovereignty of the shilling”. Source: http://is.gd/T7acsu. For other fire fighting stories see here, http://is.gd/0clCke and, here, http://is.gd/Jqzsfq.

Regarding the IMF programme the Central Bank of Kenya is SLAVISHLY APPLYING and its consequences, please, refer to our last easy here: Sinai Tragedy and The Real Tragedy @ http://is.gd/dvloqR. Here, we simply ask, what is going on with our currency and why?

First, a word on what Jaidi Kisero writes. When Kisero says he has nothing against speculators, i.e. the Gnomes of Zurich, we struggle to find out why. Perhaps, such a view emanates from his fundamentally flawed understanding of capitalism. Capitalism emanates from word capital. Capital, in economics, we mean real economics, and not this of Jaidi’s, means nothing, but, labour reduced into some permanent form. In other words, when you have a wheel barrow it is capital for it is an embodiment of previous labour. As such, capitalism, ought to be understood as old labour (such as your wheel barrow) combining with current labour (you) to produce more wealth whereby, some of this wealth will be consumed and some turned into more productive capital. As such, these Gnomes of Zurich have nothing to do with capitalism. Thus, for Jaidi to say this is capitalism amounts to enthroning robbery in the prostituted name of capitalism.

What we are seeing is not a financial crisis as such. It is the anaconda of New Rome, i.e. the American led globalization snake slowly tightening its coils of speculation and plunder around the body of the struggling humanity. Simply stated, it is Economic and Financial WARFARE against the humanity by the OLIGARCHY. This time, there is no need for boots on the ground for they can deploy financial means. In other words, you may have all the army, but, it is useless to defend you in this war which even our army is not aware of. To make matters worse, the role of taxpayers funded army will be reduced to defending the robber’s wealth from their victims. As such, this is part of the global scramble to appropriate wealth/resources such as land, ports etc, as they are artificially cheapened by the Gnomes which allows the oligarchy to snap the same at distress prices. But, how is this game played?

When Jaidi calls for IMF to our rescue, either, he is very naive, he is part of the bloody oligarchy, or, he is just plain cheeky. For instance, he ought to be aware that, in trying to defend their economies, Korea, Indonesia and Thailand were forced to empty their vaults and threw more than $ 100 billion reserves in to the so called market to try and stabilise their currencies. It was in vain. All that happened was that, within months, all this money had been confiscated and transferred into private financial hands. As such, this first step (intensive speculative attacks) is meant to increase the volume of dollar denominated debts. This has already happened in Kenya as we are reading that: “Weakening shilling wreck havoc on Kenya’s debt levels,” @ http://is.gd/Y3jy5H.

This way then, this speculative anaconda has two heads. The first head is the so called private banks, investors, hedge fund hyenas and jackals (Gnomes) which lead the charge by launching speculative attacks. As the nation’s teeters on the brink of economic, social and political chaos, i.e. after successful speculative attacks, the other head, i.e. the IMF comes along with its strong economic voodoo. In other words, as the author of the Art of War would tell us, IMF is engaged in making noise in the east while attacking from the west. As such, these speculative attacks are a means of creating preconditions for subsequent plunder of the productive assets. Let us see what happened in South Korea in 1997.

For purposes of the phony Cold War, South Korea was allowed to industrialise under military dictatorship. However, with the end of phony Cold War, just like the the successor War on Terror, South Korea/Asian Tiger’s time had come to be cut into size. It is under these circumstances, South Korea found itself under the massive anaconda attack, such that, by early December, 1997, it found itself having difficulties servicing its $ 170 billion of foreign debt. To “avert” the crisis brought by the Gnomes, the 2nd head of the anaconda, i.e. the IMF, gave out the largest bailout package of $ 55 billion.

But, what were the conditions attached to this sugar coated poison? It was this. South Korea had to abandon the economic policies which had made it an Asian Tiger after the Korean war such as ability to create credit for its industry. To this, the OLIGARCHIC Financial Times (they say, we live in financial times) celebrated these conditions by telling us that: “the rescue plan was finally agreed when the Korean government GAVE UP A DOGGED STRUGGLE to preserve the MAIN ELEMENTS of of its dirigist economic structures.” Hence forth, as the FT sees it, Korea would be subjected to “yield to investor discipline” (predators) and not “state directives.” In other words, South Korea was bailed out on the condition it impoverishes its people. Here is the clue. South Korea was not industrialised by so called markets as they tell the Africans.

The Koreans did not give up easily. They mightily struggled to resist these satanic demands. However, they found themselves with only $ 6 billion cash in hand against $ 150 billion in international obligations which were coming due within a five days. This meant that, Korea was close to default despite the fact that its industrial plants were the most modern and its labour was the most skilled in the entire world. In other words, in the world of this anaconda, fundamentals do not count. The problem was that, if Korea defaulted, it would have been unable to import oil which it relies on to fire its oil fired plants for 90% of its electricity. As such, Korea was just weeks away from social, economic and political chaos of unprecedented scale. Thus, the Korean people had to chose between economic, social and political chaos in darkness, or, submit to the anaconda. In other words, your wallet or the bullet style. And, so, they did and it became the first developed nation to receive the 3rd world bitter medicine.

Essentially, South Korea was forced by the Gnomes and the IMF to derogate its economic sovereignty and thereby, establishing what Africa has always had, a de facto colonial administration under a DEMOCRATICALLY elected president. Under this de facto colonial administration,real wages were depressed, there was massive unemployment, standards of living went south. AT the same time, the IMF money never reached Korea for it went to service the Western and Japanese financial institutions which had earlier speculated against the Korean currency, i.e. the won. More so, the Korean central bank was massively reorganised and brought under the supervision of the Wall Street and the IMF. At least for us Kenyans,, this is not an issue for our central bank is already owned by these jackals.

You see, under such attacks, the stocks melted, there were chains of bankruptcies affecting both financial and industrial sector. It also, led to sharp rise in prices of necessities. Under these distress conditions, some Korean banks be made attractive to the same Gnomes by transferring non - performing to the public, the automotive group KIA went burst. Also, Halla Group involved in ship building, engineering and auto parts also went down. Also, the IMF, acting on behalf of the Gnomes, demanded dismantling of the Daewoo Group. All this, brought the Korean motor industry into crisis which ended in mass layoffs and bankruptcies. And, they were not done. The creditors of Korea’s largest business empire, Hyundai demanded its break up with the Gnomes taking the profitable parts in car and shipping unit.

In other words, the IMF mission was nothing, but, bankruptcy of the Korean economy. Having taken over the central bank, it could not rescue troubled enterprises or banks. This, also, crippled the building and the service economy for how do you give loans when the central bank is draining money from the economy? This is exactly what Prof. Njuguna is doing right now. However, amidst all this social and economic turmoil, the Wall Street was on a shopping spree. For instance, the Hanwha Group was selling its oil refineries to Royal Dutch/Shell, having sold the other half to BASF of Germany. Also, for just $ 454 million, which was never delivered, the Korea First Bank sold 51% to a California based entity and thereby, gaining control of the oldest Korean bank with 5000 workers for nothing. In fact, the Korean people were forced to pump 35 times more more money than these jackals had promised under the contracts forced by the IMF.

Now, the details of this broad day light robbery are complicated and long. As such, we cannot detail much of what really happened and what happens. What we hope we have done is to show exactly what is the objective of these speculations and what will be the deal when the other head of the anaconda appears.

In conclusion, we only warn thee of this. From ancient times to today, the logic of any empire is to promote growth and well being in the center and not the periphery, i.e. the whole empire. In this way then, one cannot but, fail to sympathise with a sharp minded Roman Historian who described the Roman Empire’s policy as solitudinem faciunt pacem appellant, i,e. “They have made a wilderness and call it peace.” By adopting the RENTIER economy, the Roman OLIGARCHY forced tax burdens on the productive class which led to debt foreclosures, depopulation, deepening dependency which settled into serfdom. Today, they call this AUSTERITY measures. Verily, verily we say, if these American policies go on like this, we foresee a very dark future ahead for humanity.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Grenade Threat at Prime Minister’s Office Raises Fearful Questions

Who Wants To Kill Raila?

For the second time in the history of Kenya the life of a member of the executive has been put under serious threat.

Admittedly Kenya is not Liberia where a sitting head of State (former President Samuel Doe) was captured alive, tortured for hours while some sick mind captured it all on video, and then when he was dead, his body was paraded stark naked on a stretcher for all to see.
Still we have come pretty close. In 1982 during the botched coup attempt it is said that former president Moi ‘waited for certain death in the hands of the rebels’ in his Kabarak home. So prepared was he that when a contingent of the Kenya army came to fetch him to return him to Nairobi, he refused to budge urging the soldiers to kill him there rather than take him somewhere else. Several attempts to tell the head of state that these were soldiers loyal to him failed. And so he had to be gently slapped out of his stupor, so the story goes.

Yesterday morning a hand grenade was discovered within the precincts of the Prime Minister’s office. He was quickly whisked off alongside Chief Justice Willy Mutunga whom he was having a meeting with at the time.

This is very alarming news… or is it?

It is not lost on political analysts that this is the kind of event that spin strategists thrive on to increase the popularity of their candidate. People who survive assassination attempts almost always go on to win elections.

But the grenade scare on Raila is not that simple. There is the fact that experts on these matters have told this blogger that this cannot be classified as a serious attempt on the PM’s life. Assassinations are usually well planned operations with a clear target and nothing is ever left to chance. Leaving a grenade hanging around obviously does not fit into this category. Had it gone off, chances that it would have harmed the PM are very remote. And so if it was planted by his enemies then it was a message rather a serious attempt on his life.

The message would be; we can get you, we can easily penetrate your security. It would be a threat requiring the target to bow down to the demands of those issuing the threat. But what kind of political demands would be placed on the door-step of a powerless PM who relies on the president for all his teeth?

That is the million shilling question that this blogger is asking around.

Meanwhile this grenade incident is a rude reminder that the nation of Kenya is in the throes of a deadly transition where the merchants of impunity will not give up without a fight because the stakes are way too high.

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Sinai Tragedy and the Real Tragedy

By Mwarangethe

They say that, a picture is worthy a thousand words. As concerns the on going Sinai Tragedy, nothing proves this than the faces of Ms Rose Nafula and Mr Henry Osumba courtesy of the Daily Nation shown here: http://is.gd/J73oHH. However, in our view, the real tragedy lies in the incapacity of Kenyans to understand the meaning of human events such as Sinai tragedy. We add, it was the purpose of the new constitution to remove the real causes of these tragedies, but, that chance has been lost. We sample a few reactions to illustrate this incapacity. The first to react was Mutuma Mathiu who wrote that: “Negligent and failed leadership has allowed the tragedy that is Sinai,” available at http://is.gd/3uJAzo. Among other stuff, he told
us that:

“... When all Kenyans go to bed tonight, little children, possibly the same age as the ones you have in your house, will be laying down their little heads in their hovels at Sinai... The main difference is that only a few feet away will be coursing 500,000 litres of petrol an hour. The little children of Sinai live atop a bomb. Why are people living like this? They are dehumanised by poverty and forced to take risks. There is also the possibility that they are not very bright. In Kenya, someone strings together pieces of paper and mud and claims to have built a house. Many of the people who wallow in filth in the slums come from the countryside where they have a piece of land, a decent house, and a toilet.”

Having described the situation, his solution was simple.

“Our leaders should find the courage to evict all those who live in slums — provide alternative housing, by all means, if you can — and end this indignity. It is immoral, it is cowardly, it is wrong to allow human beings to live the way the people of Sinai live.”

In other words, according to Mutuma Mathiu, the Kenyan leaders should show leadership by evicting the slum dwellers Muoroto style. How to organise the logistics of such eviction and make sure these guys stay and die in rural areas away from our eyes, he does not venture to tell us. More so, what made them leave their rural areas, he ventures not to discuss. Also, he suggests that, we should handle over more of our labour to the mp’s like Waititu, he of Embakasi MP, so as to build
decent houses. Just see Waititu in action: http://is.gd/mu70j1. Mutuma seems not to grasp that, it is humanely impossible to have decent houses under our current land tenure system. It cannot be done and shall not be done.

The other person to pen his views was Murithi Mutiga who wrote that: “Disaster offered a snapshot of all you need to know about slum life,” available at http://is.gd/SJ6M3C. Referring to the government officials who went to witness the colossal waste of human life, Mutiga writes that:

“...the authorities saw little problem with these discontents of the city suffering indignity in death, as they had in life.... senior government officials, sirens ablaze, soon arrived at the scene... appeared shocked by the grim evidence of the disaster. The real question is whether they will be moved into addressing the awful
conditions in which the city’s poor live or whether they will wait around for the next call alerting them to tragedy. Sinai slum, like many other such slums, exists in an alternative universe where the writ of government does not extend.”

The third person to pen his views was Gitau Warigi who wrote: “Believe me! Apartheid has lessons for Kenya on preventing slum tragedies,” available @ http://is.gd/lVDw5Q. According to Warigi, we should copy the apartheid system for as he tells us:

“The immorality of the policy aside — which was applied purely on race irrespective of whether a black person could afford to live in Sandton or Constantia — there is something to be said about building satellite towns to house the urban poor away from the inevitable inner-city squalor.”

If this is how journalists reacted to the event, we waited to read Mr Kituyi’s article, in our expectation that, being a sociologist he would breathe some proper perspective. What a disappointment for he writes: “Why are we so fatalistic as to risk death in quest for free things?” This you can find @ http://is.gd/WGI4tr. His headline alone tells us all we need to know. He forgets that, human events are half
understood or are distorted, if one stops with their superficial appearance. A true sociologist must not be satisfied with loose external relationships of individual events. He must proceed to the center of things from which their true nexus can be understood.

By this we mean, he must not tear the individual occurrences OUT OF THEIR TOTAL CONTEXT, and thereby, put petty commotions of personal motives in the place of universal destiny. This requires a man like Kituyi to render strict account of the inner nexus of human events so as to establish the ACTIVE FORCES or the LAW OF NECESSITY, so as to recognise their trends at a given moment, inquire into the
relationship of the active forces and trends to the existing state of affairs and to changes that have preceded it. If he did this, he would come to the mature realisation that, as such, even the will of man, which seems free, is determined by circumstances established long before a man’s birth and even before the growth of the nation he may belong to.

With due respect to the authors of these essays, it seems to us that, like most Kenyans/Africans, they are yet to grasp the real meaning of this tragedy, past ones and many others to come. This is the deal. The Sinai tragedy is but, the logical outcome of our IMF and WB imposed neo - feudal economic structure on Africa. As such, without revolutionary re-organisation of our economic system, not even the Divine powers can save the Kenyan situation from complete destruction.

The Kenyan economy, as is those of other Southern Hemisphere, have been locked by the economic warfare strategy of the IMF and the WB into social and economic backwardness. So locked, Kenya like the rest of Africa has no choice but, to desperately bring in a lot of the USELESS papers they call dollars. This, we do via a number of routes: (a) via the IMF “loans” which Kibaki just asked for last week
(http://is.gd/ewKQd7), just as we predicted last year (http://is.gd/2x1lk0); (b) via export of cheap agricultural products such as coffee and tea; (c ) via tourism; (d) via remittances by Kenyans in the Diaspora and (e) export of slave - wage consumer
products from our slave enclaves, otherwise known as the Export Promotion Zones (EPZ’s). All these means of obtaining these USELESS dollars are evil and can only lead to tragedy such as Sinai and no amount of human leadership can avert it. One may ask, how so? We explain below.

Last year, when Kenyans were excited like little children by their USELESS new constitution to notice anything else, we cautioned that, in conjunction with the IMF, the government of Kenya was falsifying the inflation rates. We wrote this: EPZs and Modern Slavery: Who Shall Tell Wanjiku the Ugly Truth - Part I. Among other things, we wrote that:

“So by Kibaki, Raila, Kalonzo, Uhuru, Muslia making inflation seem low when it is not in reality, the Wanjiku's wages can be suppressed further down "scientifically." With suppression of Wanjiku's income a mission accomplished, it is time to invite the foreign infestors into this paradise where Hakuna Matata, with their free dollars from the FED into our EPZ's. …. If you doubt these "leaders" commitments to
this ECONOMIC GENOCIDE you need to read this: "Kenya to roll out special trade zones in six months". The word special here means two things. No tax for foreign infestors and even lower wages for Wanjiku.

In other words, more exploitative trade zones in a casino state.” All this you can read at: http://is.gd/CvVW4D.

The point is this. Given the IMF and World Bank imposed economic structure, Kenya must export cheap manufactured stuff. And, since we are in a global economy which is geared to produce more poverty, than wealth, there is only one way of ensuing we export more. This way is to lower the wages of the poor Kenyans who work in these export oriented industries to slave wages. So, the slave wages is what we must offer the Sinai residents so as to compete and get the USELESS dollars. If this is the real situation, do we expect the EPZ slaves to live in Karen or on top of gas pipes? In other words, they do not live in these places because they like it. It is because they have no purchasing power to afford better houses. In fact, our plans are to lower even further their purchasing power which means, they must sink into worse conditions. We explored this matter in: How To Fool and Enslave Africans @ http://is.gd/XwVkWX.

As if slave wages was not enough, another policy pursued by the Kenyan government is to weaken the Kenyan shilling. According to the high priests who who dominate the IMF and the World Bank and who call the shorts in Kenya, a weak shilling is good because to makes us competitive. If there is one who can sell the “benefits” of a weak shilling, it is Jimna Mbaru, a member of the IMF, WB sponsored OLIGARCHY (Trojan horse), as we hear him here from 8.13 @ http://is.gd/lCzFVZ.

Thus, according to Mbaru and his grossly mis - educated fellows running the Kenyan affairs, a weak shilling is good for it will make our economy even more export oriented, as he puts it, the business people will see more opportunities outside Kenyan than they will see in Kenya with a weak shilling, it will help the agricultural sector, it will spur the tourism sector and such silly jazz.

So, what is Mr Mbaru really saying on our national TV and how does what he says has to do with Sinai tragedy and the others to come? When Mbaru says that the Kenyan businesses will find more opportunities abroad than locally, he is saying that, we MUST REDUCE THE KENYAN’S PURCHASING POWER. This is equivalent to saying, LET US INCREASE THE RESIDENTS OF SINAI for it is obvious, or, ought to be, even to an idiot that, by reducing the purchasing power of our poor people, we can only increase our slums and the social degradation which goes with it. This is said on the national TV! By so so doing, this is supposed to leave more output available for export TO PAY FOREIGN CREDITORS.

More so, what Mr Mbaru and such mis - educated Africans do not grasp is this. When we devalue our currency, it is the PRICE OF LABOUR of the RESIDENTS OF SINAI we devalue even further. This is so because, the price of raw materials and capital goods are dollarised as well as our FOREIGN DEBTS. As such, the effects of such devaluation as preached by Mr Mbaru is to make exports cheaper, i.e. subsidise the
lives of the rich, while making imports such as food even more expensive for the Sinai residents as each DOLLAR OF EXPORTS BUYS FEWER and FEWER IMPORTS.

In terms of our foreign denominated debts, such devaluation must mean that, we must provide more and more of our coffee and cheap consumer goods for each unit of foreign debt. All this, further impairs our terms of trade while increasing the debt burden in terms of our domestic currency. This means we can never work our way out of the debts. This means that, our debts are rolled over which makes us sink further into the crutches of the IMF and WB vampire. To sink into the arms of these blood vampires is simply to enlarge Sinai slums and wait for more tragedies.

Therefore, as we ponder over this tragedy, let us remember this. If we get the IMF “loans” to try and prevent further collapse of our currency, and therefore, prevent the collapse of the so called middle class living standards most readers of this blog enjoy, the repayment of these dollars must come from the FURTHER IMPOVERISHMENT and DEHUMANISATION of the residents of Sinai. As such, if you carefully examined the foundation of our so called prosperity/civilization you will find therein, the bones of the Sinai residents playing the role of the stones, their flesh playing the role of the mortar and their blood playing the role of the water for joining the stones and the mortar. This being the case then, bear this in mind:

In our research to understand these conditions we find ourselves in, we have visited Tombs of almost all dead States and civilizations. In all these tombs, we have found stern warnings for those who would listen in that, all these States built their vast civilization superstructures on the foundations of involuntary and degraded toil.

Just as an example, on the Babylonian tomb, we found this:

1. Babylon was great. She used science, art and architecture, but, she abused humanity.

2. she invented SUNDIALS , i.e. a device for measuring time by the position of the sun, but, forgot to regulate with justice the hours of labour.

3. she could calculate the a star’s eclipse, but, not her own.

4. No state has been more guilty of the waste of human life and therefore, a her history is a warning to all nations.

5. Therefore, it is dangerous and foolish in the extreme, to copy the example of a nation whose crimes, towering up to heaven, was thrown down by the breath of the Almighty, burying that nation in irrevocable ruin!

Thursday, September 15, 2011

So you Think Ruto Is Winning At The Hague?

My information on the ground is that there has been plenty of anxiety from Kenyans following the proceedings at the Hague last week with many feeling that the possibility of the charges being confirmed and going to trial for Eldoret North MP William Ruto were pretty slim.

Legal experts are of course of a different opinion. What wins or loses cases is solid evidence and not articulate lawyers playing to the gallery and what Bwana Ocampo has on Ruto specifically is water tight.

Sources on the ground tell this blogger that Uhuru Kenyatta is a very worried man and is looking to use the opportunity his legal team has had of analyzing the other cases before it is the turn of their client to take to the dock, to come up with a legal strategy that will win the day. Again this is bound to be an uphill task for the son of Jomo who seems fairly sure that he can easily be the next president of Kenya in 2012 if this annoying Hague thing can go away.

All in all what should be of great interest to Kenyans are the revelations that will come out when and if these matters proceed to a full trial. Some of the bombshells will make the oath-taking look like real kindergarten stuff.

Thursday, September 08, 2011

There Is A Mzungu At Wako's Office

By Mwarangethe

To the ardent Kumekucha readers, our well articulated opposition to the so called new constitution is well known. For instance, we have consistently maintained that, the devolution deal was a farce which will only increase taxation on the poor Kenyans. Many did not understand our stand, but, we are about to be vindicated. Sample this. On 16th August, 2011, it was reported in the Standard that, “Kibaki, Raila fail to resolve county funding row.”
The issue is (a) whether counties should share only the money collected by the KRA, or, (b) counties should share all revenues irrespective of the source. Musalia and his friends are in (b) while Mr Kenyatta and his friends are in (a). Just know that, this a good and bad cop play, i.e. a charade.

Before we embark on our main issue, we only observe that, Kenyans attitude toward devolution reveals something very disturbing. For instance, we are taught by the historians that, as the Athenians got mired in their DECADENCE, having destroyed its FREE LABOUR/MIDDLE CLASS with SERVILE LABOUR, there arose a communistic view that, the State’s revenue existed only to be divided. Dear reader, we are there. Leaving aside our decadent ideas on devolution, today, we are interested in this statement:

“Another source close to one of the principals said more suspicion emerged from the meeting after it was revealed Attorney General Amos Wako’s office was already harmonising the Bills. "I understand there is a mzungu (white man) drafter in his office who is to harmonise the two Bills," said the source. He revealed that the drafter had sent a copy of the working draft to the task force, which was currently scrutinising it. "Why somebody was quietly working on the Bills in Wako’s office while the ministers bicker, nobody knows.” Source: http://is.gd/WIokig.


We also, urge the reader to read these two stories: “Stop postponing difficult decisions to make county governments reality,” by Jaidi Kisero of the DN at http://is.gd/7XC0bo and, “Lobbies: Ministries frustrating devolution” at http://is.gd/1dF2xi.


If you ask the high priests about this mysterious Mzungu, you will be told that, he is part of the donor led technical assistance in the implementation of the new Constitution. We add, all this, at your expense. However, this is a lie. The question then is, what does the presence of this Mzungu at the Attorney General’s office at this hour tell us? And, more so, is, there something analysts like Jaidi Kisero are missing in their analysis?


This is the deal. Since the American Revolution, it has been asserted that, a democracy cannot wage war or run successful foreign policy/an empire if it has to compete with other centralised and non - Democratic nations. In support of this view, it has been argued that it is not possible to entrust the legislative branch with sensitive foreign policy negotiations as well as military commitments which require great secrecy and objectivity. As such, it has been maintained that, the foreign policy issues must be left to the executive branches which alone are endowed with Solomon like wisdom.


The implications of this is that, if imperial nations like the USA, UK, Germany, Japan, etc were to become real democracies, they must forego their foreign policy and military commitments. In other words, all imperial nations have a choice to make. Either, their global strategy must become inward looking and isolationist, or, they must centralise their political structures in relation to foreign policy and military engagements.


This centralised political structure in respect to foreign policy and military commitments does not just exclude the legislative branch. It also, excludes the judicial arm from foreign policy and military engagements whether legal or illegal. It is from this perspective, the USA's courts and lawyers as usual, playing their hidden role in Empire construction gave birth to a weird doctrine called Act of State Doctrine. The fact is that, this doctrine is not founded in the American Constitution or the law of nations does not matter to these honourable courts. So much for the so called courts of justice. Under this doctrine, should foreign policy acts of the executive be challenged in the American courts, the executive has the veto whether such a case should go ahead or not. To cite just one recent example, the USA Emperor, Nero Hoover Obama, went to war in Libya in clear and blatant violation of Article 1, s. 8, Clause 11 of the USA Constitution which requires the Congress to declare war and nothing can be done about it. Talk of impunity!


Now, when we come to the so called 3rd world, we find these nations to have no foreign policy of any shape or colour. And, if they appear to have one, it is just being a hand boy for the imperial nations. However, when it comes to their domestic policies, all we find are very centralised sterile bureaucratic political systems. Dear reader, contrary to the clap trap you hear about who dismantled the Lancaster Constitution to create an imperial presidency, the truth is this.


The imperial nations using their centralised foreign policy and military commitments, i.e. covert and overt missions in 3rd world, ensure the creation of centralised, i.e. imperial presidencies in the 3rd world. As such, any move towards genuine decentralisation of power must be sabotaged. It is in this light, you must therefore, understand: (a) the emergence of an imperial presidency under Kenyatta/Mboya State and (b) the current role of the Mzungu who is “harmonising” the two bills in the Attorney General’s office. In other words, as they distract you with the ICC nonsense, they are fastening a dictatorship on you and your children’s head.


To fully appreciate this game, one must be aware of what foreign policy means to imperial nations. Foreign policy to the imperial nations such as the USA or the UK, is an extension of their domestic economic development and interests. For instance, British used their mercantilism as a strategy to promote domestic profits, hence sales and employment while thwarting foreign competitors at home and colonial markets. However, when the same Britain acquired its massive industrial capacity, it turned around and called for free trade. This time, its aim was to feed its British labourers and provide cheap grain and other raw materials to its industries. Using the reciprocity requirement, then, Britain forced all other nations to open their borders to its manufacturers which made it the “workshop of the world.”


In other words, the material prosperity and freedom in the industrial imperial nations to a greater extent is anchored on the centralised/imperial presidencies of 3rd world nations. As such, the 3rd world imperial presidencies are an imperial necessity to ensure maintenance of the status quo, i.e. crippling poverty which these empires require. This way, then, the purpose of imperial presidencies in 3rd world is:


(a) to enslave us with with debts for export infrastructure like the South Sudan-Lamu Railway which will facilitate export of cheap raw materials from South Sudan; (b), to ensure supply of servile labour for the labour intensive and cheap products from our Export Promotion Zones; (c) , to ensure availability of plantation products like rubber, cocoa, coffee etc; (d) to collect peonage debts incurred to build export infrastructure; and when this fails as is expected, (e) to alienate natural monopolies like Mombasa port, Kenya Telkom, Railways etc and thereby, enslave us again.


Thus, the centralised and corrupt governance systems in the ex - colonial nations you witness are not accidents as your teacher may have fooled you. What you have to know is this. If imperial nations allowed full and meaningful devolution, some regions would use innovative economic strategies to industrialise their regions. As would be expected, other regions and nations would copy. Such an example must never be allowed. It is in this light, the presence of a Mzungu at the Wako’s office at this hour must be understood. You may have removed Wako and put in Professor Githu Muigai, but, verily, verily we tell you, it is in vain.


The only saving grace now is this. You are now watching live how this deadly game is played. Enjoy it.

Sunday, September 04, 2011

ICC Kenyan Cases Analysis That Kumekucha Does Not Want To Make

I can still remember an incident that took place when I was barely 4 years old. It is still as clear as day to me, like it happened just yesterday. I think part of the reason is that my mother was involved. She was actually being beaten up.
I cringe when I think about all those youngsters who witnessed much worse. Their mothers being raped and then killed. You lie if you insist that they will quickly forget when they grow up. You lie when you claim that it all depends on how they are brought up and that if they find upbringing full of love, they will live in better times. You lie because I know how it feels.

This is one of the reasons why I have been listening to the ongoing confirmation hearings at the Hague with a lot of bitterness in my heart. And it is the reason why I have resisted making any commentary about them because my posts will almost certainly be biased. More so because of some of the information I have that is not in the public domain.

The situation is made worse by the line of defense that is being taken by the accused persons. This very serious matter is being reduced to an extension of the political battles currently going on ahead of 2012. That makes me want to throw up because it is happening at a time when some Kalenjin individuals are occupying land that does not belong to them. The land belongs to people whom some of them murdered and raped. The real owners of the land who survived are wandering around with no fixed abode in their own country. And yet no court in the land has prosecuted a single person in connection to this gross injustice. Naturally this is not the kind of thing to joke about or make light of. Or turn into some political game plan for 2012.

And that is the reason why this is a post to urge my readers to allow me to remain silent on what is unfolding at the ICC. I assure you all that there will be plenty of drama and shocking revelations so much so that my input in the matter will not be missed.

But before I pen off I would like to make three observations.

Firstly about the bombshell this past week where the prosecution has alleged that William Ruto recruited retired army commanders Augustine Cheruiyot and John Koech and former GSU boss Samson Cheramboss to plan and help execute attacks in the 2008 troubles.

This is consistent with previous so-called tribal clashes in the area. Kenyans with longer memories will understand that it was one retired President Daniel arap Moi who invented tribal clashes. This is the man who laid the ground for what happened in 2008 because tensions have always been high in the Rift Valley since the advent of multi-party democracy in 1991. Moi always used personalities from the military that he could trust to execute the attacks. I shall not mention names but there was a very famous army officer who was killed in the Rift Valley in the 1990s and it was simply a revenge attack by relatives of those he had organized to kill on behalf of Moi.

Secondly the line being taken by the defense lawyers to weaken the prosecution case by claiming that others are guiltier than the accused persons is bound to fail for one simple reason. Those at the Hague are the ones deemed most responsible and it is not the mandate of the ICC to round up all the people responsible.

Lastly William Ruto cell phone calls during the troubles of 2008 were intercepted by local spooks and the NSIS has conclusive evidence of his involvement. I doubt whether this material will ever be made available to the prosecutors at the Hague but am informed that some related evidence may come through in the course of the trial (assuming that the hearings proceed to a full trial).

Really interesting times ahead folks.