Reforms in Kenya: Is it time to negotiate with murderers and masters of impunity?

With recent political happenings in mind, many leading political analysts believe that there is now the very real danger of reforms in Kenya being derailed and the beautiful new Kenyan constitution ending up still-born after all. This is a view that yours truly also holds. Alert Kenyans are wary of reforms being choked even at this eleventh hour by the political class and those who stand to lose the most with a new order of things. Our local press has captured the mood perfectly by creating screaming headlines and alarmed TV news reports every time there is a tiny little obstacle to progress in the implementation of the new constitution within the set timetable.
Precedents are not the preserve of lawyers and courtrooms only and so I went out and looked for the most similar recent situation to that of Kenya and the one that is naturally nearest home. I quickly zeroed in on South Africa and how the evil apartheid system was finally defeated. Many of the phenomenal changes that have taken place in that country are today taken for granted. Little regard is given to the insurmountable hurdles that had to be scaled before a new South Africa could be born. But what surprised me even more were the secret talks that took place behind the scenes initiated by some far-sighted white folks from the business community who could clearly see that the country was disintegrating rapidly. Read details about that HERE.

In this case I was lucky enough to come across a movie detailing the whole secret talks and the key role they played in the whole process, called Endgame. See details about the movie here
The thing about watching a movie about a research subject is that you get drawn into all the very real emotions of the situation and this brings about a much deeper understanding than relying only on reading material.

For instance radicals on both sides of the divide went to great lengths to frustrate and even sabotage the peace talks. These extremists on both sides felt terribly betrayed that there should be any talks at all.

Can Kenyans learn something from Nelson Mandela’s South Africa? Can the masses negotiate with the evil political class who must survive the reforms that we have already instigated at all costs? Will this save lives and help Kenya get to where she is going much quicker?

As far fetched as this may seem at first sight let us dare to delve deeper and start throwing in some names of the kind of people who should have representation on the table for such negotiations. Mwai Kibaki and family, The Moi family, Nicholas Biwott, The Kenyatta family, Njoroge Mungai (former powerful cabinet minister and aide of President Kenyatta credited with being behind the most major political assassinations executed during Kenyatta’s watch), surviving members of the Kiambu Mafia that surrounded President Kenyatta. Perhaps we should also add families of those who were so brutally assassinated mostly under the guise of national security? Families of dead Kenyans like Tom Mboya. JM Kariuki, Pio Gama Pinto, Robert Ouko etc.

When you really think about it, we are worse off than the South Africans were because at some point we will need to get tribal representatives and dive into some serious tribal talks. The idea will be to reach that place where we can start forgiving each other for past sins whilst speaking out openly about the things that antagonize us most about some of our Kenyan communities. For instance the sheer arrogance of members of the house of Mumbi in the Kikuyunization of everything wherever in the world they settle. And worse still, the habit of speaking their vernacular in the presence of others who do not understand the language. Interestingly we will need to tell our Luo brothers that they too have the habit of speaking Dholuo in public in the presence of other precious Kenyans who do not understand their dialect. This is provocative in a unified multi-tribal nation like Kenya. We will also tell them that we do not appreciate their carrying stones inside briefcases to soccer matches and political meetings. WE will also not fail to have a word with our Kalenjin brethren to protest their ruthlessness in their violent ways and their love for war mongering against the rest of us who are their very brothers and sisters and fellow Kenyans at that.

And after the heated exchanges and “short-circuits” that are to be expected as folks lose their tempers at this initial session, we shall take a lunch break for everybody to enjoy the wide array of delicious traditional foods and then return to a session where participants will list the things they appreciate most about each other. I would start with the industrious almost natural entrepreneurial ability of our Kikuyu brothers and sisters which has helped Kenya make great strides in commerce and trade. We will then wholeheartedly thank out Luo brethren for endowing the motherland with some of the best medical doctors on the continent (I know at least one world-class one who is a world authority in his field based in the US, but I am sure there are many other world class doctors who hail from this Kenyan community). With tears of patriotic joy in our eyes we shall thank our Kalenjin comrades for bringing such glory to Kenya for long and middle distance races to the extent where there is now talk that the Kenyan race (3,000 metres steeplechase) soon being discontinued because there is little point in holding an international competition where the contest for the top honours is exclusively between compatriots of a single country with the rest of the competitors being reduced to mere spectators. There is of course a lot more to appreciate fro many other Kenyan communities.

During the secret talks that led to the defeat of apartheid, the Afrikaans (who invented apartheid in the first place) were utterly taken aback by the reconciliatory nature of the long suffering ANC even with all the injustices committed against them over the years. The ANC were also shocked that the Afrikaans had through the long years braced themselves for the day of retribution from those they killed and maimed for so many years. They saw this as inevitable and did not expect mercy when that day came. In the same way when we Kenyans sit down with each other for some serious talk, we will be amazed at how easy it will be to be endeared to tribes that we may think very negatively of at the moment.

I dare add that we cannot fail to find lovable things about the murderers and selfish land grabbers who are stinking rich today and have the blood of many Kenyans on their hands.

Kenya belongs to all of us and even as we burn with anger and thirst for revenge for past evils committed, it may be more realistic to negotiate with the very evil forces fighting against change. We need to understand the position of these thieves and murderers better so that we can fully ensure that what happened will never happen again.

This may be a very bitter pill to swallow but what if it is the only way Kenya can be saved?

See older explosive Kumekucha post: Political assassinations in Kenya TJ

Amazing natural cure for erectile dysfunction, diabetes, joint pain...

Open Letter to the Blindly Ambitious KACC

Dear KACC,

I have watched with growing alarm and utter dismay as you ruthlessly pursue government officials at all levels accussed of all manner of corruption whether past or present, petty or grand and i have decided enough is enough! its time to send you this valuable piece of advice through this suitable public forum to prevent you from dancing yourself lame before the music ends

Maybe you are not aware of this fact but your predecessor very much believed that this is Kenya-meaning sacred cows are still very much alive and well in this country and its your job to tip toe on egg shells around them especially since many of them are still in power today despite being in public office ever since this country first gained independence 46 years ago. You see this is Kenya and petty offenders are the ones used to quacking in their boots and facing justice quickly not the "untouchables", not the ruling political elite.

My question to you is why are you so intent on upsetting the apple cart? who are you trying to impress by arresting for example senior government officials like MP for Makadara Mike Sonko based on crimes he allegedly commiited 4 years ago?this move smacks of age discrimination which just like gender discrimination is illegal and has every right of earning you a nolle prosequi from the sitting Attorney General under this new constitution

By throwing Mr. Sonko in jail you are telling us that had he been older and more highly connected not to mention deeper pockets he would have at least been spared the embarrassment of spending 3 nights in jail.Just like his youth supporters who rioted outside the courts today I urge you to stop these double standards because all your tough talk and brandishing of Charterhouse dossiers in public from that American ambassador fellow is beginning to make Kenyans believe in themselves again. Stop lying to us that the light at the end of the tunnel can be something else other than a train.Don't fool yourself the public are cynical no one believes that anything good is coming out of this country before 2012. can't you see the dark cloud of ICC hovering around like an evil spirit?how do you think that is going to end?Its no wonder many local insurance companies introduced a policy to cover political stability

Kenyans are no longer gullible anymore, we know that the big fish can never be caught because there will never be sufficient evidence to prosecute their arrest-with or without a new CJ or AG. Go back to chasing policemen who ask for Ksh 50/= bribe, at least they make our lives miserable on a daily basis therefore we feel vindicated when we see the long arm of the law catch up with them. Forget about and leave those "untouchables" up there alone! Have you ever asked yourself KACC how they got to those public positions? We put them there stupid and we are happiest when cheering them on as footsoldiers. God knows no one from my tribe could ever be corrupt or incomptent! That generation were all number 1 in class and flew abroad to study.

Mursik is not only for the Hague warrior there are other warriors like Mr.Rono and Mr.Wakessa who can't afford plane tickets but still loyal to their masters and waiting in the shadows. Bottom line KACC?

Kenyans want you to stop raising their hopes falsely. We have seen this all before there is no need to reinvent the wheel. Unless you are going to arrest the whole government settle down and wait patiently for 2012 like the rest of us. cheers

Poor Governor-Elect Sonko Selectively Arrested

The rich also cry. Poor Sonko is cooling his heels in the cells. It appears some people have never forgiven Makadara MP for showing his bling-bling all the way to parliament and leaving hitherto seasoned politicians sprawled on the ground in shame. And the Kenyan media must be exposing their post-molars in joy after hounding and convicting Hon Mbuvi without the benefit of plea.

Typical Kenyan voters will start parroting in favour and against Sonko's incarceration while conveniently ignoring that the MP is a mirror of themselves. We get the leaders we deserve and Sonko is just one among the many robbers and murderers we elect after every five years. Soon fingers will be pointing in every direction accusing perceived political opponents. This perfect and apt drama to take over from where Ruto left with his Hague antics.

The political Kenyan will jump to innuendos without asking the basic questions like why the the same CID who cleared Sonko to vie as MP are now hounding him. A civilized society would have witnessed heads rolling yesterday. But sorry this is Kenya which is almost exclusively defined by double speak.

If Ruto is preparing to demand a full refund from his advisers for dangling him in front of the ICC sharp fangs, then Sonko's advisers must be hanged for exposing their client to the valgaries of political office given his heavily packed cupboard of skeleton.

Sonko should have known that one must be very afraid when flaunting wealth whose source is as dark as his/her past. Consorting with Maina Njenga and Kamlesh Pattni rightly paints you with the huge brush of guilt. Poor brother bling bling Mike Sonko! Next stop Shimo-La-Tewa.

What you will never know about some Kenyan pilots

If you are about to fly off somewhere I strictly recommend that you do not read this post until you get back from your trip.

I want to discuss Kenyan pilots. There is no better time to discuss them than now. It is certainly better than trying to discuss them after a major air disaster.
Kenya Airways’ Captain Irene Koki Mutungi the first woman captain of a passenger jet aircraft in Africa (flies the Boeing 737-300 for KQ) is a trail blazer in many ways. I dare say that women have proved time and again to be more trustworthy when given grave responsibilities like regularly “holding the lives of passengers in their hands.” Read more about this amazing Kenyan woman.

I must admit that aviation is a subject that really fascinates me. Right from the amazing humble beginnings to the latest developments, I always love anything I can get my hands on that talks about the aviation industry then and now. Then there are countless episodes of Air crash investigations and Seconds from disaster that I have taken in on DSTV and elsewhere. And so as I have been digging around for information on Kenyan pilots, I am not totally ignorant of the subject.

But let’s start this post with a bizarre conclusion from a court of Inquiry probe into the Air India Express plane crash in May this year. The inquiry concluded that the disaster was caused by a “sleepy pilot” who had in fact been asleep for most of the flight from Dubai to the city of Mangalore. He was therefore disoriented as he approached the runaway at the wrong angle and even ignored several warning signs. The plane carrying low cadre Indian immigrant workers coming back home to for their annual holidays overshot the runway, plunging into a gorge and burst into flames. Eight people survived the inferno. Close to 350 people died in the crash. Experts at the inquiry said that because the pilot of the Indian aircraft was suffering "sleep inertia" he made the fatal mistake of trying to take off again when applying emergency brakes would have comfortably saved the situation. Read more about the accident report HERE.

Apparently the Air India Express pilot was a Serbian and everybody knows that pilots from that side of the world (mostly any country that was part of the former unified USSR) have a reputation for being reckless. But let us turn our attention to Kenyan pilots which is what this post is supposed to be about.

I was pleasantly surprised to be informed that Kenyan pilots are considered to be amongst the best in the world. How can I forget what this veteran pilot told me;

“I know a couple of Kenyan pilots who are way too comfortable landing a jet aircraft in freezing conditions where ice can be treacherous. It is as if they were born in those kinds of conditions. Splendid pilots I tell you.”

I have heard many other words of praise for particular Kenyan pilots from many quarters.

However digging deeper, there are some horrifying tales of what really goes on behind the scenes. It is one tyhing to be a talented pilot and quite another to be a disciplned one. Admittedly discipline in a pilot is a very personal thing and trying to supervise it in pilots can even be harder. The truth is that despite the clear rules many of our pilots take to the air when they are drunk or have not had enough sleep.

These days flying a modern jet aircraft is very much an automated kind of thing. So a pilot mostly plays a supervisory role. We have the autopilot mode and fly-by-wire technology that introduces computer precision that no human can match to functions like descending gradually for a landing. At first glance this may appear to be a good thing and it is. But the downside is that a pilot literally “goes to sleep” and staying alert becomes very difficult. So in many ways the old days of manual flying were better because they kept a pilot alert during the entire duration of the flight.

The thing about the sophisticated computers that are today’s jet aircrafts is that if anything goes wrong it will need a very quick-witted alert pilot to quickly take in and understand the situation and make a decision, sometimes with a deadline of split seconds or just a few minutes, which could make the difference between life and death. You don’t want a pilot who is drunk or sleepy in that kind of situation. Or one who is less than fully alert because they were having a good time with some young lasses in some exotic world capital night club most of the previous night.

What makes matters worse is that pilots get away with this kind of thing all the time. One could even be lucky enough to complete their entire career sleeping most of the time without any mishap or unfortunate incidents like the Air India Express crash happening. But what happens the day something goes wrong?

Could disaster have been averted and lives saved when things went wrong in the Kenya Airways aircraft in Abidjan in 2000 (mystery of cause still to be solved) and in Cameroon in 2007 (What the crash investigations report said about pilot error)

See also: Ugly wars in the sky between Kenya Airways and the South Africans

Join the raging Kumekucha debate about drug barons in government.

Visa Ban And Drug Barons in Government

Kenyans are a very disgusting lot. They really don’t care about the most important question one needs to urgently ask whenever they come across somebody who seems to have cash literally coming out of their ears. And that critical question is; where did the money come from?
Just show Kenyans the cash and you are a hero, no questions asked. But personally I would go as far as questioning even cash that floods in for so-called good causes. Charity Kaluki Ngilu announced her bid for the presidency in 1997 looking “all money” complete with a brand new seductive dress that was a tad too short but must have cost a bomb. It was all for a good cause. After years of the Moi regime we wanted to get rid of him pronto and for a brief moment it looked like maybe a woman could break the tribal barriers and unite enough opposition votes to remove Moi and KANU from power. What followed was one of the best financed presidential campaigns ever seen in Kenya. Very few stopped to ask the crucial question, where did all that money come from? Had Ngilu won those rigged presidential elections, this question would have become even more critical and so in many ways it is just as well that she did not win and the only thing she emerged with was the distinction of being the first woman in Kenya to run for the presidency. In retrospect this was hardly surprising coming from a tribe that has had a long history of being led by women (but then that is a post for another day.)

As a matter of interest that Ngilu cash came from some very deep pockets in the United States of America with an agenda in Kenya. The same gentlemen that former Kanu secretary general Joseph Kamotho bluntly addressed in the press and told; this is NOT the Philippines. Many puzzled Kenyans were wondering what the hell the balding guy was talking about. I am told that once upon a time the CIA helped install a woman president in the Philippines and one of the key tools that helped them change the course of the political river that led to the win of Corazon Aquino was wads of cash. Yet another fascinating story for another day.

But I digress too much because today I address the issue of drug barons in Kenyan politics. This is probably one of the most dangerous subjects to write about in Kenya. I know because I have had my life threatened and have even had to run. Make no mistake about it, these drug folks are well organized and their cash opens all doors for them. There is hardly a place to hide when they have identified you as “a problem”. Even an anonymous blogger like myself can suddenly find that they are pretty exposed (as I found out the hard way).

In naming one of the drug barons I know in government let me tell you a short story. In the run up to the 2007 general elections I was fully behind ODM and its’ presidential candidate Raila Odinga. I am NOT a Luo but like many Kenyans I was seduced by the ODM rhetoric and I was yearning for change. Cynical and hard to convince as I am, I found myself in the place where I was sure that ODM would bring about the desired change we vadly needed in Kenya. And that is the reason why I was deeply shocked and hurt when I later heard that the ODM presidential candidate had offered Mr John Harun Mwau a full cabinet seat in his half of the coalition government. Mwau, the story goes, turned it down because of his frequent Business trips out of the country and accepted the less busy docket of an assistant minister. Knowing the character of the man I cringed at this news. Imagine a drug baron as a full cabinet minister carrying a diplomatic passport and all? I was later told by some ODM die-hard that “the captain” did not have a choice because the man gave ODM a lot of cash for the presidential campaign. That did not wash with me. So what if he financed the ODM presidential campaign? Why was he allowed to in the first place by a candidate looking for change in Kenya?

I have written several posts in this blog about this man (you can read this one) and so I don’t want to repeat myself. The bottom line is that Mwau was a sharpshooter working with the Kenya police and climbed up to the rank of acting Inspector of police. And he was not one of the more disciplined officers because he insisted on keeping his beard and had to get a letter from some doctor proving that shaving his beard would be a risk to his health. When Mr Mwau left the police force in some very controversial circumstances he suddenly became a very rich man. Journalists have often asked him how he made his money and he has always waived his hand and said it was from business and quickly hurried on to the next point. One journalist pressed the question and asked what business exactly he was doing. Mwau replied that he was importing electronics. Mwau in a thinly veiled threat told journalists to be careful with him. Apart from being a scary character to journalists seeking information, Mwau has always been pretty generous with reporters. Let me just leave it at that. And so journalists have learnt not to ask Mr Mwau certain questions and even more important not to dig too deeply into how he acquired his stupendous wealth.

All over the world former policemen are rarely considered to be overly intelligent, if anything many jokes are traded about the lack of intelligence of policemen. However in Mr Mwau’s case there is evidence to prove that he is an extremely intelligent man. In a land mark case challenging the election of Moi as President in 1992 (in an election where Mwau also stood for president), he opted to represent himself and ended up impressing many lawyers and even judges (although he did not win the case). Many thought his performance was better than what many trained lawyers would have achieved. When this kind of man is let loose in a country like Kenya for so many years unchecked the result is that he becomes part of the very fabric of the nation so that touching him may have a major impact right across the entire economy of the nation.

For instance there are allegations supported by enough documentation and evidence that the well-respected Nakumatt chain of supermarkets had its’ early days financed by money launderers. Money laundering and the drug business are inseparable twins joined at the hip and the heart. Read this Kumekucha story for details.

(To be continued)

See also the earlier Kumekucha article: Is it okay for a drug baron to be in government?

Late Extra...

Judging from some of the comments this post has provoked I felt that a comment made by a reader from one of my earlier articles in Kumekucha about the drugs trade would be appropriate to put things in perspective. I reproduce it below;

Anonymous said...

I got a Kenyan boyfriend the other day and I have been trying to familliarize myself with his home country. Having come across this blog I can't help but wonder about how simple life is in that part of the world. As a police officer in Miami I have to say that narcotic drugs activites are no joke, I can tell you stories that would make it difficult for you to sleep at night. It seems like you guys want to destroy your country by creating the impression that narcotic drugs are a business that can create abundant wealth.

5/27/07 11:47 PM

Why some voters in Kenya are more equal than others

What is the boundaries commission controversy all about?

Let us imagine for a minute that you come from one of the really moneyed families of Kenya (who have mostly made their money from graft) and you were at the dinner table as a family deciding where you would go for your Christmas holidays this year. The way it is done in most families is that the older and bigger folks usually have a bigger say than the younger and less experienced. There really is no democracy because if mum decides that it has to be London to impress her friends, then that vote carries much more weight than Junior’s vote to see Brazil where all the soccer magicians are born. Of course mzee wa nyumba can over-rule everybody and use his veto power to ensure that the family goes to Dubai because he has some personal business there he would like to tie up while the family is on holiday.

The most powerful voter in Kenya today.

In other words there is no true democracy in most Kenyan homes and with good reason because experience counts for a lot. But what about our electoral system and the nagging question that continues to hound us about constituencies and especially how many we should have and where they should be? Currently there is a controversy surrounding the new constituencies created by the Interim Independent Boundaries Review Commission. Granted, boundaries and commissions to review them can be pretty boring stuff and that is why most of the ordinary folks I interviewed for this article had no idea what is going on and are not really interested in knowing. Most of the folks I talked to didn’t have a clue what all the hullabaloo about new constituencies was about and were not interested. Mostly they wanted to talk about Ruto and his woes. But trust me, this thing is very important.

At the centre of all the arguments and threats to go to court is a simple question. Should a constituency be based on the number of people in it or the geographical size? At independence it was mostly based on population. However when Daniel arap Moi came along as Kenya’s second president, his advisors came up with a brilliant way of diluting and limiting the influence of the populous Kikuyu tribe. It is interesting how Moi is very quick these days to deny any historical suggestions that he was scared and yet that is the naked truth. For younger generation Kenyans it is hard to believe but Moi really had to be coaxed into being president. “Hawa kikuyu watamaliza mimi,” (These Kikuyus will finish me) are words that came out of Moi’s lips quite often, shortly after Kenyatta’s death. Read excerpts from my revealing book, Dark secrets of the Kenyan presidency. Now Moi’s idea of dealing with his perceived enemies was to increase the number of constituencies in areas where he had support and then limit the number of constituencies in Kikuyuland. It worked like a charm because even when the opposition got huge number of votes from central province, when the sums were done in parliament, the Rift valley had more MPs and would therefore always have an advantage in parliament. They still do. It also made rigging presidential elections very easy for Moi. Now that the Moi era is over the Kikuyu community are eager that this injustice is corrected, however Kalenjin MPs are determined that we continue with the evil that Moi put in place by basing constituencies on geographical area covered. If these fellows are to be taken seriously then we shall end up with constituencies in the North Eastern province with 500 registered voters or less. Meaning a legislator elected to the house by his extended family and clan will sit right next to a colleague who landed in parliament with 500,000 votes. Is this fair?

Now in concluding this post, I need somebody to explain something to me. The Interim Independent Boundaries Review Commission based the new constituencies on the requirements of the new constitution. They also say that they came up with a number, 133,000 which they consider to be the ideal number for any constituency. How come then Mandera in the sparsely populated North Eastern province got 2 new constituencies?

In my view balancing things will not work. We need to bite the bullet and do this thing democratically. In my view democracy means one man one vote having the maximum impact in our politics. As it is now those who come from low populated areas have a clear advantage when
it comes to voting. It is really as simple as that.

Are you in the diaspora and planning to come to Kenya on holiday?

Boundaries commission defends itself

Paradox of devolution and nationalism

Rattled William (Ratko) Ruto Reigns on ROW

Ruto is not going down to The Hague without a bruising fight. The battle-ready, warrior and messiah has his eyes and jabs singularly trained on the trio ROW - Raila (as standard), Omar and Waki.

The drama has been unparallelled the whole week. The coincidence in HEROIC homecoming from The Hague and guns blazing with bullets aimed at the head of one Hassan Omar was textbook Kanu parading evidence to advance a mission. Add that to both Rono and Wekesa disowning KNHRC and spitting in the face of perjury charges and you get an original script from an incompetent spin doctor willfully leading her client to the slaughter by the leash.

Ratko Ruto did a splendid job and saved ICC plenty of resources by presenting himself to be ICC officials for a close and candid study, dissecting his personal demeanour, credibility, language and guilt. The TRIBAL siege mentality Ratko is working overdrive to craft with a hope of making his indictment politically untenable is no brainier for ICC. Hon Ratko is better advised to stick to Raila and forget blaming small fish like Omar

The phrase dancing yourself lame before the real music starts must have been coined with Hon William Ruto in mind. Thanks to Ruto, Kenyans are reliving the Kanu theatrics of yore. And just how much ground of deceit can one cover in a week of political polemics? Well, we haven't seen the last act from the MP for Eldoret North.

Kenyans are better advised to brace themselves for more Ronos and Wekesas who have come out to disown dream lives of luxury without telling us the BUYING PRICE. You just don't trash freebies of KES 60,00 a month and a fully furnished three bed roomed accommodation in leafy suburbs for press headlines, or do you? Only in Kenya do we fall for such gimmicks.

Ruto did not need the trip to The Hague to reinvent himself. His spin doctors must be working overdrive to keep the cheques coming and remain relevant before the owl is unmasked revealing the feathers that he is presently disguising as horns. A lie repeated in total brinkmanship and bravado never mutates into truth, or does it?

Porous shield
For starters, ICC will do their own investigations and all the present heat on KNHRC is a charade at beast and a decoy meant to divert at attention at worst. Rono and Wekesa appear to be blinded with the present money taps so much so that they have become oblivious if the legal chopping block they are inadvertently placing their dead necks on. The cause of the present fallout has been reduced to typical Kenyan unmet promise of land, money and scholarships. Well, ICC is not our local courts and that is why many Kenyans preferred it from the word go.

Behind Ruto's hyperactivity lies the big nasty political plot that will hit Kenyans like a thunderbolt. The real owners of Kenya have had a glimpse of ICC fangs and claws and tehy are running really scared. Ruto is not alone and is merely testing waters for the real shakers who don't have the guts to face their demons. Make no mistake, 2012 is only 13 months away and the suspects are ganging behind their tribal walls to scare and frustrate justice. Well, they are swimming in uncharted waters and time is not on their side.

The tribal warlords are all out to sabotage ICC but tough luck. We are in a new Kenya and their expertise of trying to fit old wine in new wine skins will backfire big time. Individuals committed crimes and not communities and ICC knows it better. The later may only provide porous shields until Ocampo's spear comes for the hearts of the former.

Orgasmic Statehouse Calculations

Kenyans have a problem with arithmetic or math as the Americans call it. And they have had this problem from as far back as anybody can remember.

There was a time a long time ago that they did a switch locally from old mathematics to new or metric mathematics. The new mathematics offered hope for some poor folks who thought that it would be magically easier and that they would stop seeing stars in the classroom. Of course that was a pipe dream.
We are going through a similar phase in Kenyan politics. We are moving towards what I would like to call metric politics for the purposes of this post. The sad thing is that many older folks are still using the same old calculations to analyze the current political scene. I listened to some mostly sickening political calculations in recent days. Most of them made me want to throw up and so I will share the nausea with you today.

Calculation 1:-
Ruto is too smart for these people and so he will go for governor and then Uhuru will be president with Jirongo his vice president. This combination is unbeatable.

Calculation2:-
Since Ocampo will deal with all the big names e.g. Ruto, Raila and Uhuru the field will be left open for Kalonzo Musyoka who will not have any competition from anybody. He is surely the next president of Kenya.

Calculation 3:-
Because Uhuru Kenyatta will be out of the way the house of Mumbi will have no other option but to put their weight behind Martha Karua for president who will easily win.

Calculation 4:-
This is the turn of the Luhyas. Since Ocampo will wipe the whole field clean of the big names Jirongo will have little or no competition in winning the presidency. His main support will come from Rift valley where Ruto will have left his blessings before departing to the Hague to begin serving his jail term.

I will not bother to answer to any of the above analysis. They are hardly worth the effort. What saddens me is that mostly older Kenyans cannot seem to get away from the old thinking that having one of their own in State house will feel so good that it will be orgasmic for them. Very, very, sad.

Why tribalism is so ridiculous and how science can help rid Kenya of it

Mombasa car dealers to help you get a car at a crazily low price.

Breaking News
--------------------

In May 2008 a Reuters photojournalist, Trent Keegan was killed in Nairobi. His killers took away his laptop and mobile phone and left his wallet, cash, credit cards etc intact. And yet the Kenya police have been insisting right from day one that this was an ordinary mugging gone wrong. I always get very suspicious when the police start to give theories before investigations have even commenced. More so when Mr Keegan had indicated that he feared for his life.

Initial reports this blogger received from reliable sources was that shortly before his death Mr Keegan was in touch with contacts giving him some sensitive information for some very big stories on Kenya (see my post in 2008 about this also read this Kumekucha exclusive). Strangely the story that stuck was an investigative piece he was doing in Tanzania.

Now the latest is that a glue-sniffing youth who is being charged with the high-profile killing of the Kenya Airways pilot last year has also now been charged with the murder of the Kiwi journalist. Read story HERE.

This is a major cover up that is pretty unconvincing. Indications are that behind this mystery is a very big story which yours truly is pursuing as I have been since May 2008.

More Heads Roll: is Charity Ngilu's Neck Next?

Ruto has exhausted all his ammunition and running really scared groping in the dark holding onto any straw to keep politically afloat. His latest object of tirade Hassan Omar will remain long after Ruto is shipped to The Hague.


Now we've heard it come straight from the horses mouth itself.Suspended Higher Education Minister William Samoei Ruto did not meet with ICC chief prosecutor Louis Moreno Ocampo in his recent trip to the Hague in Netherlands.

It turns out that the Eldoret North MP really did go to Hague to drink tea with his agemate and friend unfortunately his companion was not in his office as he had other more important matters to attend to in England. But why all the smoke screens?more on that in a minute

But first of all it seems more heads are set to roll in whats turning out to be an ugly mud slinging contest between water minister Charit Ngilu and her former assistant minister Mwangi Kiunjuri.

The Kitui Central MP is well known for speaking the truth even to the extent of putting to shame the devil himself and in the court of public opinion the jury have already reached their verdict. It is more likely that her word is believed over the assistant minister for public works

Its interesting to note that the current circus going on speaks volumes about what type of power struggles have secretly been taking place behind closed doors of various 40 odd ministries. The idea behind the coalition government was to have the 2 main parties shadow each other in the various dockets of government apportioned as stipulated in the power sharing agreement. Its no secret that ODM a favourite of voters at the time of the signing of the peace accord set out to establish a reputation for performing well in whatever line ministries it was handed. The party's philosophy was to in theory improve service delivery of ministries under its umbrella despite what they expected would be frustration from the ministries that fell under PNU's skirts. In this way they would build momentum for endearing themselves to the public throughout what then was looking to be a most difficult 5 years for the nation

This "government within a governmet" sounded good in theory but practically...well all you have to do is look at whats being exposed in Ngilu's docket.As the minister in charge she was in bed with the opposition who was meant to be her assistant! Meantime of course both continued to enjoy their time in government as ministry was divided in itself and delivering less than half of the services to its people

Will Ngilu's head roll in joining the long list of ministers and public officials who have stepped aside since the new constitution was promulgated?The Prime Minister has thrown his hat into the ring in throwing his political weight behind the Water minister and this could be seen as a sign that she has the right political backing not to lose her Water services portfolio. Honourable Ngilu does have alot of immense political capital and it remains to be seen whether she will graciously bow out of the ring or stay put for another round.

Back to William Ruto. It seems this man flew out of JKIA on a political mission to re-invent himself upon return and as he has said he is soon launching his political party. In all likelihood its possible he already knew he would not be meeting Moreno Ocampo as ICC prosecutor is not a man to waste anybody's time. It is therefore not surprising that since his return he has chosen to hit out at the government at every opportunity as he gets as a way of trying to endear himself to the public so as to be perceived as a man of justice who took shots at his employers and party boss in a bid to shake up the building from the foundations up hoping when the dust settles he will be more than just a governor in some county somewhere in the Rift valley

Drowning Ruto Opts for the Samson Option

Update: Empty political showboating
Ruto's spin doctors have defrauded him big time and he must demand a full refund. The political showboating that was cleverly crafted to deflect public attention has succeeded in doing the exact opposite. First Ruto did not meet ICC chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo who was in London when Ruto visited The Hague and his evasive and contemptuous answer to the press (Taxi operator reference) was proof enough.

The Eldoret North MP would have saved his money by meeting the ICC team already in Kenya. The propaganda coup has backfired and Ruto has lent more credence to his impeding indictment after unwittingly showing his hand out of naivety and self-guilt.He derided ICC to be toothless until 2090 and his outburst on Waki Commission's report and KNHRC is the sturdy rope his neck desperately needed.
There is nothing more powerful than the voices of the dead crying to the almighty from the ground. Remember the Cane and Abel saga in the good book? The truth of the matter in Kenya is that there are tons of Kenyans crying for justice. The post election troubles of 2008 claimed close to 5000 souls (Kumekucha figures) although official figures claim slightly above 600. The vast majority of these souls were innocent. And that is not counting all the innocent Kenyans before that who were sent to an early grave courtesy of one Jomo Kenyatta and Daniel arap Moi. Or the ones who were denied being brought up by a father.

God also says in his good book that vengeance is his. Not that the down-trodden of Kenya would have any means of exacting their own revenge.
This is the only way I can begin to understand what seems to be unfolding before our very eyes on the Kenyan political scene. It is all too shocking to fanthom. And yet it is happening.

Firstly the political class in broad daylight enthusiastically passed a constitution that would put them in serious trouble (as is already beginning to happen). It is important to note that those in our political class are many things BUT they are NOT fools. Indeed some of the most intelligent, smart and best educated Kenyans are in politics today. It still beats me how nobody in this bunch of smarts saw that passing the new constitution would come back to haunt them big time. I honestly couldn’t believe my eyes when the likes of George Saitoti so enthusiastically drummed up support for the new katiba. Just watch what happens next to the good old professor. HINT:- plenty of skeletons will emerge from the man’s closet.

Political showboating
Now even before we can analyze all the drama unfolding in Kenya at the moment with big shots falling like dominoes as their colleagues shake uncontrollably in their boots wondering where the axe is going to fall next, a totally unexpected twist has been thrown into the mix. Eldoret North legislator who was right inside the engine room of trouble when the post election violence of early 2008 broke, has chosen to bare all to the ICC. Effectively Ruto (with the help of his lawyers) spent the marathon sessions recently with the chief prosecutor Luiz Moreno Ocampo delivering damning evidence against the two principals. In effect Ruto’s defense is that he was only reluctantly following instructions from his superiors who are guiltier than he is.

If you are sitting there thinking that the two principals will sit and let events take their own course then you have another think coming. One of the very valuable pieces of evidence in the possession of one of the principals are recordings of cell phone conversations Ruto made with others on the ground during the violence. These kind of recordings are not admissible in a court of law in Kenya, however the ICC is something else and these are the kind of recordings that Ocampo would love to get his hands on.

Then there are the court cases now rapidly catching up with Ruto. Indeed the way things are going Ruto could be behind bars long before we hear from the ICC. Which would imply that Ruto knowing that he was going down opted not to go down alone but bring down everybody else with him, especially the high and mighty (namely the two principals who seem to have given instructions that his court cases now proceed with speed).

Fascinating stuff guys. Terribly fascinating stuff.

Ruto lawyer details planned defence at the Hague that is based on prosecuting the two principals first

When Ruto started running out of options

Leading car dealers Mombasa

Kwaheri Bwana Ruto

Why is it that cases against suspended higher education minister William Ruto have been held at bay for such a long time and yet suddenly all of them have emerged out of the woodwork and have come back to haunt him big time? Was somebody holding the dogs off all this time and has now gotten out of the way? As it is Ruto is going to be very busy in court cases over the next couple of months (he has at least two major ones locally).
These are just some of the many questions Kenyans are now asking themselves as the Hague finally begins to catch up with some pretty big fish in Kenya (as has been predicted in this blog amid jeering, for a very long time now).

But for my post today I will focus on the lessons those who come after Ruto must take from from the story of this man. Ili iwe funzo kwa wengine. Ruto’s big mistake is that he got way too cocky after killing one giant too many. The first giant who fell to his knees in front of Ruto was one retired President Daniel arap Moi. The Kalenjins take their leaders very seriously and for many years the word of Moi was law in the community. Ruto dared to challenge that and won. His stunning victory for Raila and ODM in the 2007 general elections in Rift Valley will be analyzed for many years to come.

Next he challenged his own ally the mighty leader of ODM Raila Odinga and not only became a thorn in the flesh to Odinga for a long time, but to the surprise of some who worship Raila and believe he is nor ordinary mortal, Ruto did not suddenly fall dead and die (although he has lost a lot of weight since he went against Raila. In the end it was all too much, for the man whose quick road to glory started at the jobless corner near Hilton hotel, and it went into his head. Ruto decided to challenge for the ultimate price, the presidency of the republic of Kenya. According to his calculations he had a good chance to fell the constitution during the recent referendum and that would have uplifted his image tremendously. There was one big problem with the decision. It went against his biggest most powerful and yet secret allies, those close to President Kibaki. That is where the man’s real protection from prosecution had been coming from all along. And shortly thereafter the deal was off. And so it was just a matter of time before things started catching up with the Eldoret North legislator. It was as simple as that.

I am not sure if Ruto also saw the fact that the new constitution if passed was going to dramatically change the politics in Rift valley. The sum effect is that Ruto as self-proclaimed king of the Kalenjin would suddenly lose a lot of his clout. Let me explain. Before the current constitution Kenyan politics was based on constituencies. Boundaries for these were greatly fiddled with by former President Moi. Just to give a single example. Eldoret is divided in such a way as to make sure that all the three constituencies hive off a part of Eldoret town. The motive was to ensure that Eldoret Town was never allowed to be a constituency on its’ own because there has always been enough influence and numbers there to ensure a Kikuyu legislator elected. Now with the counties, although the boundaries are yet to be finalized, you can be sure that there will be plenty of counties within the Rift valley that will be headed by Kikuyu governors. Counties will influence constituency politics and not the other way round. In any event counties will take the focus away from tribes to where it should be, to development efforts and plans within specific counties. In other words the need for a tribal chief like Ruto to “fight for the rights of the community” have been dramatically diminished. Hopefully forever.

Much has been said about the new constitution and many skeptics told us here that it would hardly change anything. I was ridiculed for my child-like enthusiasm during the promulgation of the new constitution. A few weeks later the writing is on the wall. Big fish are facing trial in our courts, as you read this a man is in trouble for holding a woman’s backside without her permission and faces some serious charges (na mambo bado). Let me just say one thing. The written law of the land is a very powerful thing. You can fight for your rights until the cows come home but when there is no written law to back you, chances are you will not have much success. Now everything has changed. The new constitution by itself is a juggernaut trudging forward at increasing speed and it cannot be stopped. Be careful folks even as you enjoy the discomfort of the big fish because even small fish with bad manners like treating women like trash are on very thin ice now.

But then this post is about Ruto so I don’t want to go too far off from the man.

To his credit Ruto has seen trouble coming when it is still very far in the horizon. The main aim of his current expensive trip to the Hague was to give his lawyers an opportunity to feel around and see what kind of evidence Ocampo has against him. He wants to prepare his defense early. And contrary to what some Kenyans are speculating, the International courts at the Hague do not have plea bargain options where you plead guilty to a lesser offence or give the prosecution valuable evidence in return for a lighter sentence.

How close is Ruto to the famous song bird Emily Kosgey? If they are as close as the rumours have it, then he will need plenty of music (like King Saul) to sooth his troubled soul over the next few months or so.

Kwaheri bwana Ruto.

P.S. I predicted in this blog some time back that Ruto would finish Raila politically before his own demise. Well, it seems I was wrong about that one. But then who would have predicted the amazingly unexpected turn of events over the last few months. Who would have predicted that kenyans would have a new constitution long before Christmas 2010? Still my apologies. I was wrong. Umesikia Bwana Phil?

What you and other Kenyans never knew about the Kalenjins

Ruto winds up talks with Ocampo

Kumekucha extra:

1. Sticker being prepared for the exit of Mwai Kibaki reads; End of the 2nd error

2. Only in Kenya......do we use the word 'politics' to describe the process so well: Poli' in Latin meaning 'many' and 'tics' meaning 'bloodsucking creatures'.

Brave Ruto Panics, Calls The Hague Bluff

Naive or brave? Well call is courage, panic or whatever you fancy but Hon William Samoei arap Ruto has rattled both Kenya and the The Hague. After deriding ICC as irrelevant and snail-paced to act (remember 100 years?), Ruto has taken the battle right to Ocampo's doorstep and in its wake left all the PEV's suspects shaking in their boots like leaves at the mercy of ferocious desert gales.

That Ruto caught all and sundry by surprise is not debatable. And he could not have struck at a better time in his political life when he has no CABINET BAGGAGE which would have demanded clearance before booking a date with Moreno and his sleuths in The Netherlands.

Either Ruto is trailblazing in tilting/setting Kenya's political agenda or being plainly naive by attempting to preempt the inevitable. True to the adage either the guilty are very afraid or the brave chat their won paths. Take you pick. Either way Bill has left the other suspects with little room to wiggle. They must come out of the closet and publicly declare their stand, no two ways about it.

You can only imagine the impending political inferno if Ruto chooses to go SUICIDAL (security in numbers) with some PENTAGON minutes, either real or not. Spice that up with the unsettling fact that senior security officers have written to Ocampo vowing never to take responsibility for orders that came from the GOVERNMENT.

The recipe you get is a mix that leaves every politician sneezing and the stomach rubbling. Meanwhile they are left groping in the dark with Ocampo's sledgehammer lurking in the shadows. The Hague Express has gathered full steam and there is no disembarking. Nobody is safe. And what was that gimmick about AU resolution not to submit to the ICC again? NA BADO!!

Tanzania: Most popular presidential candidate did not do enough

Is Kikwete the most useless president Tanzania ever had? Was Nyerere justified in denying him the presidency?

All indications are that President Jakaya Kiwkete will be announced the winner of the just concluded presidential elections in Tanzania. This is one result that will dishearten many Tanzanians.

The most popular presidential candidate in Tanzania, but hey, this is Africa.

But for the rest of East Africans there are interesting lessons to be learnt here from one Jakaya Kikwete. There are similarities between Jakaya Kikwete and Mwai Kibaki apart from the fact that both held the Finance ministry portfolio when they made history as the youngest Finance ministers in their respective countries. Kibaki was finance Minister in Kenya in his 30s whilst Kikwete got the coveted docket in Tanzania at 44.

Kibaki and Kikwete are the kind of leaders that are way too eager to lead. Folks in a big hurry to be president before clearly crystallizing their policies and what they want to do with the presidential powers their lust after. You will see these kind of leaders pretty often. The kind that are just too eager to take over office, cocky and very sure that they can do a better job even before they take the time to carefully analyze the job and what the current office bearers are doing and have done. Many times they will frequently rubbish the work of their predecessors in words and actions (Kibaki did it openly, Kikwete less so).

It is said that in 1995 the late Julius Kabarage Nyerere prevailed on CCM to opt for William Mkapa as their presidential candidate rather than Kikwete to take over the presidency from then president Ali Hassan Mwinyi (who is the man who came after Nyerere.) The founding father of Tanzania was always a keen judge of human character and hardly missed anything. Dramatically during the presidential nomination process Kikwete was clearly carrying the day over Mkapa when the wise Nyerere suddenly and unexpectedly called for a break. Obviously it was not for him to enjoy a cup of tea or cold Pepsi (found only in Tanzania in the entire East African region) but clearly it was for him to do some subtle lobbying. He urged his CCM comrades to opt for Mkapa rather than Kikwete and “to give the young man some more years to mature” (Nyerere’s exact words). No doubt these were very hurting words to Kikwete then but in retrospect Tanzanians have one more critical thing to thank Mwalimu for. He saw many years ago what Tanzanians are only realizing now. Indeed although Kikwete has worked hard to position himself to the public as a keen student of Nyerere the truth is that he finally got elected over Nyerere’s long-dead body and chances are that the old wise man of Tanzania would have denied Kikwete the presidency yet again was he still alive to lobby within the CCM high command. And with good reason. Mkapa’s steadier wiser hand apparently had much more attention to detail and gave Tanzania the best 10 years that economy has ever seen. In those 10 years Tanzania changed so dramatically that they suddenly had a problem of too many Kenyans flooding the job market there where opportunities were numerous fueled by the suddenly rapidly growing economy. In retrospect it is obvious that Mkapa understood a lot of things that the arrogant JK did not take time to grasp.

As it is Kikwete will go down in history as the least popular Tanzanian president ever. A close friend based in Tanzania for many years sent me an interesting email this week that perfectly illustrates the feelings of most Tanzanians towards this president;

“Chris, people here are disenchanted with Kikwete. He's a populist and yet doesn't seem to be delivering 'Maisha bora kwa kila Mtanzania'. He talks of fighting corruption but there are many corrupt guys in his party (and government). Some, whose cases are in court, were running to be re-elected this year. Kikwete literally went to their constituencies during the campaigns and told the wananchi that those court cases and accusations were fabrications. Imagine the cheek!”

Amazingly like Kibaki, on taking over office Kikwete wanted to do too many things. In many ways the insinuation here is that your predecessor did nothing and has therefore left you with too much work to do. Basic management demands that you must prioritize and focus on a few key areas. Kikwete and Kibaki ignored this cardinal rule and woke up one morning to realize that their initial 5 year term was already over and they hardly had anything to show for it.

What Mr Kikwete must do now is use his remaining 5 years to repair some of the damage he has done to Mkapa’s good work and then focus on one critical area that he will want to be remembered for. As it is now most Tanzanians only remember him for pain. He might want to borrow a leaf from Kibaki and initiate the process for a new constitution or at the very least major changes to the laws that govern this huge sleeping giant of a nation.

KACC Effect: Can Sheriff Lumumba Make Heads Roll?

UPDATE: Kenyans have yet another reason to show their post molars in jubilation this week as embattled Truth Justice and Reconciliation chair Ambassador Bethwel Kiplagat resigned(read stepped aside) today ostensibly to avoid embarrassing his appointing authority as investigations of accusations levelled at him begin

Tanzania Election Update:read Kumekucha's latest update on the Tanzanian elections in the comments section of this post or click here

Once laughed off as a bunch of buffons on this very blog, the KACC advisory board must be rubbing their hands in glee at mother nature’s gift to them: a second chance to redeem their reputation through the appointment of a new graft boss in the shape of PLO Lumumba. This comes after the disastrous tenure of the office’s previous holder. Kenyans already know there is a new sheriff in town recently appointed head of the Kenyan dragon slaying unit(Kenya Anti Corruption Commission)

new graft watchdog fighter Professor PLO Lumumba

The similarities between Sherriff Lumumba and his predecesor rtd. Justice Aaron Ringera are numerous: both were well known Nairobi law practitioners, and both were well known public speakers notably quoting the works of famous dead men such as Shakespeare and other well known works of historical literature. However it seems that is where Sherriff Lumumba wants the similarities to end because he is determined to make it clear from the onset that his tenure will clearly be a different ball game from that of his predecessor(see video below)

The face of emerging Kenya under the new constitution
Ever since reporting for duty PLO and his newly appointed graft watchdog team have slowly been attempting to match the strength of their punches with their constitutionally mandated institutional weight as a public institution. So far it is commendable that the sherrif and his army of dragon slayers have been reeling in catch after latest catch. However majority of Kenyans remain unimpressed and have so far refused to be taken in by the Oxford dictionary English speaking Nairobi lawyer. Kenyans argue that the sheriff is simply re-inventing the wheel in giving the impression of catching government of national unity grand fraudsters. We are weary as we have seen it all before and will settle for nothing less than Heads rolling

WanaNICHI want him to do more than just raise the temperature under the collars of know crooks and wanted criminals. They want Sheriff Lumumba to make major inroads in the war against the vice. The graft boss and his team must have been the most headhunted private sector professionals. Now that they have crossed over and been appointed to public positions Kenyans need to believe that at the end of the day the new leadership o f KACC will not turn out to be a very big disappointment.

Good preaching
Corruption is deep rooted in our system but this new constitution carries all the political will to root it out. This cancer can cease to be a way of life in this country and Sherriff Lumumba may just be the non-ceremonial figurehead outside the executive arm of the Government to fight it without fear or favour

Without a shadow of a doubt the newly appointed KACC director may find that his life will be threatened several times in the months and years ahead in the course of patriotic duty but he must take heart because Kenyans are beginning to note his efforts with appreciation. Not many Kenyans can handle the heat of the seat upon which the mention of your name immediately invokes both admiration from a grateful public while striking fear among the looters and the corrupt. The Sherriff and his team must adequately be described as both loud barkers and biter in equal proportions

Kenyans are ready to give the benefit of the doubt this time if the Sheriff can prove equal to the task of fighting corruption with the full weight of the country behind him. God bless KACC and God bless Kenya