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Friday, April 30, 2010

The Coming "Dark Age" and the Africans Fate: Part II

By Mwarang'ethe


In the second part, we now examine our common future in the coming brave world. It is accepted that, when the Roman city grew to a million people, it could only be maintained by colonising everything in its path. Without its huge pool of slaves, intensive farming techniques, massive aqueduct building projects and more crucially, the Empire's army, Rome could not have supported its population. Therefore, it had to pillage the whole world to overcome the limitations of the solar power that was in use at that age. This called for looting in the Near East, Egypt and North Africa. Likewise, to secure the remaining energy reserves, unless the world comes up with other plans which we doubt, we are going to witness one of the worst looting spree ever witnessed in history. The bad news is that, Africans will fair very badly in this looting.

Facts speak for themselves. Lest some say we are engaged in conspiracy theories, we refer you to a report presented by USA's Energy Information Administration on 7th April, 2009. Here is the link: Just scroll to page 8. The graph tells us that, by 2030, from the conventional existing sources, the production will fall from 81mbp (when the graph was prepared, the daily consumption was 81mbp) to around 30mbp, a drop of 63% in 2 decades. The rest will come from "Unidentified Projects. This is euphemism for shortage or faith based. Today, America uses 20 mbp. The implications are obvious. Most experts say we have about 1 trillion barrels of conventional oil left. At present rate (Feb. 2010) of 86 mbp, it will be about 34 - 40 years and it is all gone.

However, the main story is not when oil will be gone. It is the price as we go forward. Before we reach 2030, oil would have become too expensive for weak and disorganised economies like ours. The problem is this. Today's global "free trade" is based on denial of resource scarcity. The standard economics theory (dogma) assumes that new technology and the price mechanism will ensure availability of resources on sufficient quantities. In this way of "reasoning," in a free market scarcities of resources will be reflected in rising prices, increased costs will spur research and development which will discover new resources or inventions. This way of seeing the world comes from the idea that, we humans have emancipated ourselves from natural constraints as expressed by both Marxism and Liberalism.

However, the above beliefs are delusions for we cannot emancipate ourselves from natural constraints. It also exaggerates the power of technology while neglecting the historical and political factors that generate conflict over natural resources. More importantly, these theories ignore that; market forces cannot repeal the laws of thermodynamics. Furthermore, it rests on the assumption that, institutions of law and property will remain intact while prices are rising. That assumption does not consider the real world history which shows that, people will not gamble with their lives based on the theory that, technical fix is around the corner. Long before this theory has a chance of being tested, market competition will be supplanted by war, conquest and or revolution. Since price mechanism is a creation of the state power, when urgent human needs run against rising scarcities, market competition is always suspended and or rigged in favour of the most POWERFUL.

This brings us to the ever expanding USA military bases which now total over 700 across the world. Even interesting, as we were preparing this essay, it was announced that, Japan is setting its FIRST military base in Africa, in Djibouti (Japan's First Foreign Military Base to Open in Djibouti Africa). This is all done to fight “terror.” But, first, note this. Between 1945 and 1990, the West had cold war. Anyone who rejected their exploitative ways was painted with a red brush and crushed. Between 1990 and 2001, to dismantle Yugoslavia which was decided in 1984, we heard about humanitarian interventions of Mr Clinton in the Balkans. Since 2001 - to date, they have "war on terror." If you count 1st and 2nd World Wars, which were wars for resources and colonies between imperial Britain and emerging German power, you have come to the conclusion that, the West has been at war for more than a century.

Now, if you listen to the propaganda (propaganda is not meant for the critical thinker, but, moral cowards who are given an excuse not to think), you will be told that, these militaries are there to fight communists, dictators and terrorists so as to bring peace, democracy, development. It is a LIE. The sole objective of these endless wars is to secure energy supplies by military means from Eurasia (Middle East, Balkans, Russia, Central Asia and in Africa (read AFRICOM). If you doubt, sample this. During the 1WW, while France was needlessly battling Germans, Britain moved a staggering 1.4 million soldiers to secure Middle East, and especially Mesopotamia (Iraq where they are back again). Which terrorists were they fighting then, when the Arabs were (Arabs were duped) on the Western's side against Ottoman Empire? They were securing oil and a century later, they are still at it.

This brings us to the real story. Let us first recall some history. The coming of the Europeans to Africa was motivated by search for new sources of resources/energy to compensate for the depletion of their existing stocks. Thus, we see that, imperial or colonial expansions are always designed to secure sources of resources/energy. It is to secure energy/resources we are now witnessing the second scramble for Africa with all the military might. The difference this time is that, the West is not alone for Asian nations are also in the play. In view of this, three questions are in order. Firstly, why must the West and Asian nations scramble for African resources? The second question is, will they succeed in this second round? And, what will be the consequences for us Africans?

Why the scramble for African Energy?

As the global thirst for energy has increased, Africa has emerged as the site of the fiercest battle among major international companies and energy - hungry countries. For instance by 2015, Africa will be supplying USA about 25% of its energy needs. That’s why Walter Kansteiner in 2002 said, "African oil is of strategic national interest to us." Translated, we will fight and kill to keep it. Therefore, in the name of terror, Bush formed AFRICOM which that [con] man of change, Obama intends to keep. How can he not? In truth, it is a colonial army to safeguard energy supply lines. We also, know that, to safeguard Middle East oil, Carter, formed Central Command.

Meanwhile, as USA, EU intensifies their stranglehold on African resources, China has also elevated the importance of Africa in its geopolitical calculations as its reliance on African oil and minerals grow. Although lacking the might military machine like USA, it has deployed other cards while becoming a major supplier of arms to African nations while increasing tempo of military exercises and exchanges.

Essentially, policy decisions substantially flow from institutional structures. Since these remain stable, an examination of these structures can provide valuable insight into the “emerging norms” and the contemporary world. With this in mind, we just need note that, economic institutions, the transport system, communication systems, the location, design and operation of cities, towns are all derived from a common energy flow. Now, if you analyse the Western societies, one must come to the conclusion that, the social, economic, military and political institutions are designed to maximise the energy flow in consumption oriented societies. As a result of these institutional configurations, Americans alone consume energy resources that should be consumed by 22 billion people!

The problem with such stupid developmental model is that, if you cut energy flow to New York for just one week, it will be a scene of massive starvation worse than Somalia. To avoid this fate, America/West/Asia must at all cost ensure the flow of energy resources. The small problem is that, these resources are not enough for all for such wasteful lifestyles. Simple solution is to deny some people in some parts of the world their share. A number of ways are employed to deny us our share of God given resources:

(a) Keep the population growth down through whatever means necessary. If you think this is conspiracy theory, please read Henry Kissinger's National Security Memorandum 200 (NSM 200). In part, they said this:
"The U.S. economy will require large and increasing amounts of minerals from abroad, especially from less-developed countries. That fact gives the U.S. enhanced interests in the political, economic and social stability of the supplying countries. Wherever a lessening of population can increase the prospects for such stability, population policy becomes relevant to resources, supplies and to the "economic interests of the United States."
(b) If the population keeps on growing, keep it poor so as to depress its consumption capacity. To achieve this, they use a number of means:

(i) They deny the Africans the ability to use their own resources by ensuring they are governed by Western puppets who must keep them poor. African’s affluence would cause global shortage and price rises to the detriment of those with divine right to God given resources. If these puppets get out of line, they are demonised and removed using "opposition" "parties." If that is not possible, by military means. If you doubt, check with Shah of Iran or with Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, Frederic Wills of Guyana and PM Bandaranaike of Sri Lanka who organised the Colombo Declaration of 1976 which shook the Western interests.

(ii) They employ Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPS) via IMF and WB to keep raw materials cheap and availability of slave labour. This is why in 1975, in reaction to the attempts by 3rd world nations to regulate prices of their natural resources, the Fortune Magazine issue of August, 1975, said this. "If the material exporters succeed in this endeavour, the days of sustained improvement in living standards in the advanced industrial countries may well come to an end."

Therefore, it is not that, the Western elite hate poor Africans, rather, African's plight has little weight in comparison with more important values. If you want know these values, remember this statement from Bush, "We will not give up our way of life." Translated, it means, sustained improvement in living standards at the expense of rest of humanity.

Will they succeed in this second scramble for Africa?

Oh, yes, they will very easily. When the colonialists arrived in Africa, they curved the continent into a patchwork of colonies to systematise the extraction of resources. With independence in 1960's the emphasis shifted to Middle East and thereby, Africa lost some of its importance. However, as every barrel of oil has come to matter and the need to diversify from "terrorists" the ME, Africa has emerged as a potential source of critical materials such as bauxite, chromium, cobalt, copper, platinum, titanium and uranium, tropical forests, gold, diamond and of course the energy resources which are the primary target.

So, what makes Africa so attractive to predators? It is precisely what made it attractive back in 1885. Vast abundance of vital raw materials in a DEEPLY DIVIDED and POLITICALLY WEAK continent, which is REMARKABLY OPEN TO INTERNATIONAL EXPLOITATION. As a result of Africa's tortured history, it’s completely lacks defences against foreign resource exploitation that other regions have established. In other words, Africans have been enfeebled by colonization; the slave trade, economic exploitation, and post colonial power struggles (Kenya since 1990 where the opposition is funded and supported by foreigners without regard to Kenyan's vital interest) which has made it impossible to construct robust and fully functioning states.

More so, for lack of critical skills, Africa relies on foreign technology. And, since most African support their tribal leaders, which allows these leaders to be funny, the foreign companies find it easy to do business in Africa than in Middle East where governments have right supervision which restrict opportunities for profitable deal making. See "Uganda dismisses case seeking oil deals disclosure".

As these powers jostle to exploit Africa for their own benefits, they will be proclaiming their deep interest in African development insisting that. In this monkey language, we shall be told that, the exploitation of the African raw materials will contribute to the improvement of living conditions for the African masses. However, all one has to figure out is simple. Africa with high living standards (industrialised) will use these raw materials internally. To do so is to cause shortage and increase in prices in the world market.

Therefore, to keep these minerals cheap and available, Africans must be kept poor. In this sense, since poverty eradication must not be the outcome, the prospects for internal violence are very high. Under the current arrangements, the flow of illicit wealth to the few that are allowed to share the rents from these resources will envitably fuel resentment and in many cases open rebellions or violent attacks from those who will feel, and rightly so, excluded from any benefits that will flow from these deals.

Adding to the prospective flames, the Western and Asian nations will protect their interests by providing arms and military training to the armed forces for their key suppliers. As a result, the rulers of these nations will rely on brute force and not compromise and inclusion in dealing with any group that will seek a reasonable share of revenue from these resources. From this, we can see endless succession of coups (Niger and Republic of Guinea coups come into mind) at the top and revolts, ethnic upheavals as well as gang war below. In this scheme of things, some will get menial jobs at oil fields and mines (most will be offshore where Wanjku cannot reach), but, most of the highly paid jobs will be reserved for foreigners or those well connected with the elites in power at any time.

When violence related to resources eventually breaks, as we know from history, it will be the civilian population that suffers. And, when at long last the oil, copper, gold etc is depleted, the powerful mining company will fold and move elsewhere, leaving behind massive unemployment, broken promises and large empty holes. As this will be happening, the “intellectuals” from Africa and abroad will gather in Oxford and Harvard to lament at how “tribalism and corruption” is the bane of Africa. On our part, we shall dutifully as cheerful robots accept this nonsense as “political analysis” of what is going on.

Therefore, let us double our efforts in doing what we do best, i.e. "political analysis" of tribal alliances to "capture power." When we get frustrated since nothing seems to work, let us take guns and machetes and thereby, with speed and purpose, kill and rape the equally suffering brothers and sisters from the "enemy tribe." And, when "we" get into power, let us do "expert analysis" led by our “political scientists” of which ministry is "superior" as prime news on our radio and TV stations.

Let us also, with the support of our underdevelopment partners launch "war on corruption" for it’s the "greatest" obstacle to the African development. With such "creative thinking," the world will be watching the fulfilment of the prophecy of 1933 about the Negro that, "When you control a man's thinking [using brainwash education] you do not have to worry about his actions."

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

UK Votes, Kenya Learns Lessons For 2012

For starters the church must call the state bluff by robustly and colourfully launching their NO campaign. They must not seek political will from a MORIBUND President or an INEFFECTIVE Prime Minister.

The truth of the matter is Gordon Brown is not a political unknown. The 59 year old incumbent is an accomplished electoral candidate both as an individual and as a politician especially when compared to his other 2 competitors. Many are aware that prior to his 2 and a half year stint as the UK's prime minister,he was the country's finance minister or Chancellor of the Exchequer as they like to call it there.He was the longest serving exchequer and oversaw 10 years of high and stable economic growth in the UK economy that saw the tiny island feature in the top 5 of the world's richest countries

Sadly though the issues underpinning the UK elections to be held on 7th of May have nothing to do with experience or track record and the Prime Minister is not a favourite to win the hotly contested race for Number 10 Downing Street. When you look at the other 2 candidate's real achievements, what becomes clear is that the British voters are not interested in track record or experience but physical appearance,charisma and age. Fickle nature of the British voter or poor PR management for the incumbent Prime Minister or simply time for a change in the world's largest former colony?

Undoubtedly voting in Cameron to Number 10 will be a great gamble not to mention a return to conservative rule after more than 13 years out of power. According to the latest polls (oh no not POLLS again) the Conservative party leader does not face a hard battle against either Brown or Clegg, and Cameron's chances of winning the popular vote are extremely high.

I think he is going to win as i cannot see a situation where majority of the UK public will, if given the chance, favour a candidate they consider lacking in charisma and personality ala Tony Blair the immediate former prime minister. Whereas majority of the British public were/still are of the opinion that Mr.Cameron is "posh" and from priviledged background, he is younger,more eloquent than Brown, and is relying on his fellow countrymen to emulate the example of their cousin's across the Atlantic and vote in a "fresh" unknown outsider as they did with President Barack Hussein Obama currently the country's 45th President

Truth be told, neither the conservative nor the liberal democrat candidates have done any of the things Mr.Brown has accomplished in his political career and if there was any justice in the world, he would be re-elected as leader of the Labour party and prime minister. However, his Labour party is still popular with the voters, and past attempts to throw a leadership coup have in fact been in the hope that a different leader at the helm would convince the voters to stick with the party and return them to power for yet another 5 years.

Unfortunately, the reverse of everything i've mentioned so far is true for Kenya and what its going to be like in the next general elections! If only we would have the luxury of downplaying political candidate's track record and overlooking their previous experience-but more than half of them have none. The script for that play is already being written now even as we speak,and a repeat performance of 2007 is inevitable, with the exception of throwing in a new constitution into the mix. That plus the fact that no one in the entire breadth and length of the country in their right mind wants to see a repeat performance of the 2007 election shambles when we return to the ballot in 2012.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Vote Yes or No But No Toxic Politics Please

Caveat: Let the YES and NO camps sell their wares/ideas but leave Kenyans to vote with their conscience. No need to force any to buy into take.

The present political heat generated by both supporters and opponents of the draft constitution is unnecessary to say the least. First we must appreciate that the there would be no need of a referendum if all were in agreement. So we must learn to disagree without being disagreeable. That is what civilization is all about, learning to listen to opposing viewpoint without raising your voice nor rising in arms.

Even the church has all the constitutional right to oppose the draft. Sitting on their hands as YES campaigners traverse the country would be akin to supplying nails for their own spiritual coffin. Granted, dogma is the singular thread that sews the church together. Remove it and men of the collar are permanently rendered irrelevant. Forget the paradox that it’s the male clergy complaining loudest about reproductive health and abortion despite the fact that they have no clue what it means to host and nourish the unborn for nine good months.

Kenyans are a very resilient lot and we must not allow ourselves to be hyped and poisoned by our selfish politicians. Just look at their frequent change of stand on the same issues they claim to fight for. To them the only constant thing in their political lives is INCONSISTENCY.

Collectively we have survived numerous calamities as a nation and we must not allow the forth coming referendum to sow seeds of discord among us again. Not after the near-Armageddon that followed the bungled 2007 polls. Respect for ourselves and to one another is KEY. From there we must start learning as Kenyans to demand respect of our so-called leaders otherwise nobody will take us seriously.

And the consequences are dire. Even Museveni will expand his ego past Migingo and the Al Shabaab lay claim to annex North Eastern. What is more, US and UK will continue treating us like dirt by letting us scramble to sleep in the cold streets in search of their visas in our own country. Salt that grievous injury with our own politicians refusing to pay taxes and we have our backs against the wall.

So please vote YES or NO but remember to keep it civil for Kenya is bigger than anyone of us. To paraphrase someone's succinct summary from a previous let us avoid trying so hard to herd everyone Kenyan into the "YES/NO" grazing paddocks where there may not be enough political foliage as well as economic green pastures to sustain the 'voters' in the long run once the odious task of chewing regurgitated constitutional cud is no longer palatable.

Update

Kibaki's riot act to the cabinet must be seen in its right perspective as a CEO whipping his subordinates to order. Doing otherwise would be akin to lack of leadership and courting chaos. Now that he has made the draft a government project, those opposing have the option of quitting and pissing from out rather that from within. True, they can shout democracy and right to disagree. But order and harmony is irreplaceable in any organization. There are no two ways about it: you cannot have you cake and eat it.

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Meet The Real C.O.E


Will the REAL C.O.E please stand up?
It's now official-in order to solve the myriad problems bedeviling our political systems and man eat dog class of society, the National Cohesion and Integration Commission has decided to go back to our traditional roots and rope in the role of council of elders (C.O.E) to reprise the coveted position these wise old men once occupied in counseling the collective psyche and schooling the national conscience of the whole nation albeit at that time segragated in remote partitioned villages located in far-flung corners of the pre-independent republic

In playing the "age-comes-with-wisdom" card, the siamese C.O.E is cleverly taping into the rich vein of inbred reverential fear for "wazee" deeply imbued and instilled from an early age in the sub-conscious psyche of every well brought up and polite mannered citizen of this land. But wait a minute, is the assumption that we went astray, tore the national fabric of our country simply because we lacked counsel of wise old men (not women since traditonally they only gave birth and cooked for men) an accurate diagnosis or rather simplistic point of view of what ails the 45 year old motherland?

Sanctioning the role of Council Of Elders in drawing attention to the rot swept under the carpet in Kenya is one thing but dusting the broom out of the closet and cleaning the mess in our own backyard is quite another thing altogether.

All in all, I for one am looking forward to a better Kenya from now onwards, due to the fact that we'll now have a lone voice of sagacious experience coming from the "wazee" and completely drowning out the cacophony of looney tune voices of our politicians. Think about it-why else would the "wahenga nena....." so many ancient proverbs in the past yet they are still all quoted thousands of years later?and still just as relevant as ever before, with never ending lessons full of new meaning applicable today?

It makes those "oldies" appear even more "golden" now than when they were in the prime of their youth. Beyond a shadow of a doubt, this new C.O.E will not disappoint and is already in good company with the likes of the embattled TJRC Chairman Hosea Kiplagat who would already easily qualify to join its ranks with white flying colours should his boat not fail to sink in the truth commission

This COE will do a far better job than their siamese twin on the constitution side whose line up disappointingly did not even include a single "learned" fellow with gray hair as the pre-requisite stamp of approval for being culturally acceptable. No wonder they churned out such a doomed draft constitution.

Saturday, April 24, 2010

William Ruto Rapidly Running out of Options

William Ruto: Running scared?

FACT: William Ruto was one of the main architects of the Naivasha input into the draft constitution as a key vocal and influential member of the parliamentary select committee on the constitution.


FACT: There was no question of Ruto not being happy because one cannot fail to be happy with something they were one of the main architects to.

FACT: The Naivasha changes made by Ruto and company were virtually all incorporated into the draft constitution by the Committee of Experts (COE).

So the question Kenyans must ask is a simple one. What made Ruto change his mind about his own work at Naivasha? In other words what is Ruto’s motivation in so suddenly changing his position?

Many analysts point to the section in the draft constitution on land. They say that Ruto is wary that when fully implemented that little section could easily wipe out his ill-gotten wealth virtually overnight. But if this is true the question that begs an answer is didn’t Ruto see this when the parliamentary select committee was drafting changes in Naivasha?

And so it is unlikely that it is just the section on land that is the motivation behind Ruto’s behaviour. There is something bigger.

Clues as to what may really be happening start to emerge when you consider Ruto’s actions behind the scenes after he was recently demoted from the high profile, high finances ministry of agriculture and relegated to the virtually invisible ministry of higher education. The man seems to be in some kind of panic. The kind that would make a man use air conditioning services in Nairobi at this time of the year even when the weather is relatively cool and comfortable without any artificial help from anywhere.

The truth is that the latest move has greatly unsettled him? More than he will ever want to admit to anybody. But why? He hasn’t been dropped from the cabinet has he? The man is still flying the coveted flag.

Some information that has recently been made available to this blogger suggests that some political deals have gone sour for dear old William and the only card he had to play was to beef up the “NO” camp for the upcoming referendum on the draft constitution. The deal that went sour had been crafted with some PNU insiders and the intention was to politically cripple Prime Minister Raila Odinga. However our dear friend who considers himself one of the smartest Kenyan legislators who has ever lived (you tell me what you think of this self-analysis) forgot the first rule in politics. This game is way too fluid and there is no such thing as a permanent friend or permanent enemy. No politician on earth can afford them.

In quickly becoming the most visible personality and indeed the de facto leader of the No-vote brigade, Ruto’s strategy was to bring back the PNU stalwarts to the negotiation table. What has now unsettled Ruto the most is the fact that his recent demotion to the ministry of higher education is clear-cut and conclusive proof that his recent allies have ganged up together with his sworn enemies and have already dealt him the first body blow. It should be perfectly clear to Ruto by now that the latest move was merely a warning jab. The knock out blow is coming for sure.

Mr Ruto has been left isolated and with very limited options. Remember that this is a politician who has always thrived on playing one side against the other to his huge advantage. Many do not realize that the reason why Ruto got such massive land allocations and access to cash very early in his political career was because he convinced Kanu insiders that he was capable of penetrating the then dreaded opposition. Playing exactly the same tactics Ruto approached PNU promising them Raila’s head. Now that the ground has shifted so significantly Ruto has been left in extremely unfamiliar territory.

Politically the move to demote Ruto is smarter than most would realize. He was not dropped from the cabinet, meaning that he cannot complain nor organize those fake demonstrations claiming that his people have been targeted. Secondly it removes him from the political limelight and he is left with only the “No” campaign platform that is sounding increasingly tired and fatigued. So much so that Ruto, sensing defeat has shifted gears and is now campaigning for what appears to be a middle ground—namely a referendum that will allow voters to also vote on the contentious issues separately. This should allow him to at least claim partial victory even if the “Yes” side wins overwhelmingly which is what is going to happen by the look of things.

Still it is clear that Ruto’s political fortunes have changed very suddenly and very emphatically. In retrospect Ruto’s main strength in the past was his secret sneaky alliance with PNU and some of the president’s closest advisors. That is clearly history now.

Whatever happens the next couple of weeks should be fascinating as we watch the sneaky Kalenjin warrior wriggle in the spider’s web where he is already trapped. Granted he has gotten out of tighter corners than this before, but will he manage this time? Will he outwit Mwai “with the best political advice money can buy” Kibaki and Raila “experience” Odinga? And then Ocampo and the ICC after that?
P.S. What is wrong with Ruto? The man looks increasingly sickly and weak by the day. Is it the stress of his kind of politics or is it some incurable disease of sorts? Very confusing because the man has dramatically increased his security detail? What is he scared of? Has he been threatened by somebody? P.S. I am keenly aware that Citizen headline seekers always visit Kumekucha before deciding on their front page splash for the new week. I am watching very carefully to see what their front page story will be this coming week.


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Friday, April 23, 2010

The Coming "Dark Age" and the Africans Fate: Part 1

By Mwarang'ethe

To fully appreciate the core message of this piece and the next one to follow, we request the reader to start by reading the following articles:

(a) High global crude oil prices threaten to burn Kenya gains
(b) Foreign power firms reap Sh6.2bn
(c) Review cost of power, Daily Nation Editorial
(d) US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015
(e) Energy minister will hold summit to calm rising fears over peak oil Lord Hunt calls UK industrialists together to discuss government response to any early onset of decline in global oil production

In 1992, a Japanese by the name Takeshi Umehara warned that, "the total collapse of Marxism ... and the dramatic collapse of the Soviet Union are only the precursors to the collapse of Western liberalism, the main current of modernity. Far from being the alternative to Marxism and the reigning ideology at the end of history, liberalism will be the next domino to fall."

Few took notice of these prophetic words at that time of "end of history" as Fukuyama taught us. Now, we know that, were it not for the trillions of dollars of government’s aid in 2009, the global banking system would have already collapsed and the world would again be deep in the throes of another depression, where credit-driven demand sinks in an ocean of debt and settles on the bottom where it slowly drowns. But the collapse has not been averted, it has only been delayed. The trillions of dollars spent to postpone the day of reckoning were borrowed and soon the bill will be proffered and payment demanded for having done so. Despite the apparent resolve of those attending Davos and G8, there is no way out except complete systemic collapse. We are now at the end of the three hundred year system of economic slavery by credit and debt.

As if the monetary madness is not enough, we are now staring one of the greatest resource/energy crisis humanity has ever faced. When this crisis fully hits home, many will gnash their teeth because, it will destroy civilisation as we know it. More so, it is the disorganised nations like Kenya/Africans nations which will bear the greatest burden of the forthcoming energy crisis. Like many dismissed Umehara's warning, many will dismiss this article as just noise. However, if we get at least one person to reflect on the issues we raise, we will have done our part for the stakes have never been so high for us Africans. While at it, remember this, when Gandhi saw Indians celebrating their "independence," he told a friend. "I do not see what they are celebrating, for I see rivers of blood." The partition of India in 1948 and the blood that flowed vindicated his vision.

Now, we know that, almost all of us have been led to believe that, if only we remove this leader, if only we use aid well, if only we are less corrupt, if we have a new constitution, Kenyan will march on to become a rich nation by 2030. We deny all this as madness. We even go further and assert that, things will not get better, they will get worse. In other words, expect more corruption, crime, disorder and general decay and perhaps total state collapse. Is this not too pessimistic a view? Yes, we agree. However, if you understand the core message we are trying to communicate, you will appreciate why we are so pessimistic. However, more importantly, we hope, each one of us will play his/her part, so that we can steer this Titanic before it hits the rocks. This is crucial because our governments are not prepared for this crisis and therefore, we must prepare as individuals.

The best way to understand how a society functions and therefore, malfunctions is to understand the energy question. In other words, a well organised society is totally dependent on leaders appreciating the meaning of energy and how its distribution influences what a society becomes. However, our leadership has no clue about this issue. For this reason, we are and we shall pay a heavy price very soon. We start with a story of a nation of two prisons.

A Nation of Two Prisons

If you take a walk past Kahawa West in Nairobi, you will come across what they call Kamiti Maximum Security Prison. As you walk past this prison, you will notice the numerous security arrangements such as high walls, fences, armed prison guards, trained dogs, whistles and alarms among others. Needless to say, over 95% of the inmates of this prison are the poor Kenyans. Ignoring other interesting areas, let us now take a walk to the other side of the "green city in the sun." On this side of this city, you will find Karen, a gated community as Yankess calls them. In this area, you will see high walls, electronic security devices, armed guards, fierce dogs among other security gadgets similar to those at Kamiti. Thus, in Karen we meet the rich inmates' prison. In this self made prison, which is a mirror image of Kamiti, these inmates are running away from the dangers of the society they have deserted. Upon reflection, these two prisons tell us something. We have become a nation in which law is almost the only functioning social institution and prisons among the few remaining means of social control. The tragedy is that, this kind of social division and thereby, disorder will get worse. We explain below.

Let us start by saying this. Human survival or life is all about three things. These are, TRANSFORMING, EXCHANGING and DISCARDING energy. It follows that, our ability to survive is totally dependent on our ability to maintain a constant flow of energy. To enable our survival, our culture serves as an instrument for the withdrawal of energy from the larger environment. However, at this point, let us keep this in mind. It is impossible for us to create or destroy energy for the amount was fixed from the beginning to the end of time. In this sense, we work for a living, we buy stuff, and we throw away stuff or exchange them for other stuff. This is what the energy flow line and all economic life is all about.

Following from above observation, we can now see that, economic and political institutions just like a machine are energy transformers. Their sole objective is to facilitate the flow of energy through a society. It therefore, follows that, the way work in a society is allocated (ENERGY TRANSFORMATION), the way the energy is divided between people, groups, tribes, constituencies etc in a society (ENERGY EXCHANGE), and the way the wastes are disposed off at each stage of energy flow (ENERGY DISCARDING) determine the social, economic and political nature of disorders that surface in a given society. The way to understand this is to see that, a man in Muthaiga uses more energy (TRANSFORMS and EXCHANGES) than a man who lives in Dandora. But, the waste (ENERGY DISCARDING) from Muthaiga ends on the Dandora man's door and the associated disorders.
Here is something else to keep in mind. Although we cannot destroy energy, any time we transform energy - matter, we lose some of it. Losing does not mean destruction. It only means that some of that energy becomes disorganised, dissipated and therefore, unavailable for future use by man. Thus, what we call pollution (Dandora dump site), is nothing but disorganised energy that is unavailable to man. It follows that, the faster we use the available energy, the faster the dissipation and disorder that results. In other words, every time we use the available energy, it creates disorder somewhere in the surrounding environment. And, if you doubt, isn’t true that, the more waste you discard in Muthaiga, the more disorder the Dandora man experiences. However, with time, this disorder keeps on moving closer to the Muthaiga man as well.

This is the crux of the matter. As we use all cheaply available energy, we are forced to go for more expensive energy as society becomes more complex. Consequently, the more easily available energy is used first. That’s why we started with trees. We have finished then. Then, we moved to more difficult and heavily polluting coal. Thereafter, we moved to oil which can allow complex industrial society as we have today, but, is more expensive than coal. Nuclear is even more expensive and dangerous than oil. Of importance to note is this. As energy becomes more expensive to extract from the environment, the costs associated with all of the transforming, exchange and discarding processes along the energy flow line continues to rise. For instance, in 1950, it cost the energy equivalent of one barrel of oil to find 100 barrels of new oil. Now the same investment yields 5 barrels. Simply, as the first link shows, as oil becomes more expensive, prices rise for the producer and the consumer which leads to rising cost of living.

Note this one please. At the energy cost increase, at the same time, the accumulating disorder resulting from past energy flow adds additional economic, social and political costs, which further increases taxes/prices for all of us. If you doubt, count the cost of cleaning the Nairobi River and the cost we must pay one day, to clean Dandora or reclaiming Mau. If you doubt this, sample this: "Two Kenyan towns have received a total of Sh1.7 billion from the French Government to help them manage their waste.... Mr Mudavadi said his ministry had also tabled a proposal to the cabinet seeking permission to engage the private sector and other development partners in the relocation of the Dandora dumpsite."

In other words, it will take more money to pay for the complex technology needed to extract and process the remaining energy. This will be happening even as we need more money to manage all disorders which result from dissipation of energy in the past as well as today. In other words, inflation will spill faster and faster as we go forward. This is so because; energy is the basis for all economic activity. Thus, when costs go up at the source, they are passed to the consumer in terms of high prices as the cost of exchanging energy between institutions, people, groups, sectors rise. Do not forget that, the taxpayer is called upon to fund more cleaning of the disorders as well. If you doubt, check the NEMA's budget.

As the cost of energy rises, the wage earners get hit. Yes, wages may seem to rise, but, real purchasing power falls and will fail to keep up with the rising cost of living. The growing gap between wages and real purchasing power reflects the money that is diverted from labour bill to pay for the increased costs of maintaining energy flows in the society. (Foreign Power Firms Reap Sh6.2 bn ). How this works is very simple. As each institution tries to maintain its existing profit levels in a rising energy cost environment, they reduce the wage component. When those who earn wages are getting less purchasing power in this environment, it means one thing. They are unable to meet their energy needs, i.e. food, clothing, health care etc. In other words, energy flow through the human systems begin to slow down as more energy (money represents energy expended, but, our Babylonian system does not work this way), is diverted to the maintenance of economic institutions and machinery responsible for the energy flow itself.

This is another key point to note. Given the way the energy flow is set up, some individuals, groups and classes are located at the periphery of the transforming and exchanging process because of the way the system allocates jobs and distribution of income. Interestingly, as we see in Dandora, although these groups miss in transformation and exchange process, they get involved in the discarding process. You can also see this in the international context because Africa is the dumping site for toxics as we saw in Ivory Coast a few years ago. This puts Africans, whether rich or poor in the same class. Consequently, as the disorders mount, the poor class are the first to feel the pinch. This is so because; more and more of these poor guys are thrown off the energy flow line so as to compensate for the tightening economic conditions.

As more people are cast out of the energy flow line, the governments will step in and provide for their energy needs in terms of welfare and other benefits. Unfortunately, as energy price goes up which is aided by how faster we deplete the easy supplies (this is rampant under the global free trade regime which USA has forced on the world), the more people will lose jobs, or, in words of energy, will be cast off the line of energy flow. As this goes on, governments will get even larger to take care of the victims of tightening energy crisis. Do not forget that, many of these victims will turn to crime to get their share of energy. To combat this every increasing crime, the governments will enlarge security machinery and other associated costs like courts. Off course, to pay for these enlarged services, tax payers must pay more whether the payment is postponed via debts, it does not matter. As we pay more taxes, the more private enterprise will be collapsing under the weight of unbearable taxes.

Unfortunately, as the governments grow in size, as well as energy companies, they will end up using more energy (money) for their own maintenance, thereby, increasing tax burden while decreasing the energy flow for human consumption. For this, just watch the American military expenditure and how it is bankrupting once a wealthy nation. We shall come back to this later. This diversion of energy away from the people and towards maintenance of enlarged corporations and governments will proceed until the entire social mechanism crashes.

In other words, to "solve" the disorders occasioned by rapid energy dissipation, which is a result of how we have organised our societies, we will expect the usual response. In this sense, we will deploy more control or regulatory agencies like NEMA, more judges and better armed police. All this will lead to more centralization of power at the top. When these centralised bodies are unable to cope with the mounting social and economic disorders, they will go burst. When they do, we will create even bigger ones to contain the disorder (we see Obama giving Fed more powers). If you doubt, read history on how civilizations collapse. In the next piece, we will show why Africa will be a poverty and war ravaged continent as we enter the final game in hydrocarbons saga which brought us first and second world wars. This is because there is an intensifying scramble for African energy by both Asian and Western nations which will be fighting tooth and nail to capture the remaining oil on the African continent to maintain their high energy flow societies at the expense of Africans.

Ruto Victim of Cruel Humour, Musical Chairs

Hon William Ruto is ragging and shaking with anger. Now Kenyans can understand what he meant with BETRAYER. But Bill is a strong man who knows better to contain his flaming anger in the lungs and not let it seep to the heart where it could be fatal.

The whole rider is now we can trust all our learning institutions and kids from kindergarten to university with two INCORRUPTIBLE ministers Prof Ongeri and indefatigable Ruto.

Update: Meanwhile Keter is already missing the flag. He has been freed to do what he knows best.

Arap Moi must be laughing so loud at his students political students' attempt to outdo him at his game of musical chairs of yore.

So who is fooling who here? It attempting to create and impression of motion in the Ruto-Koskei swap, we are have just witnessed no movement except Moi's old political modus operandi. So the political muscles must be flexed at our national expense.

And the so-called face of Kenya recycling continues. Who cares as more Kenyans continue to perish on our roads. You cannot fail to see through the political schemes of dangling the Transport Ministry portfolio to Matuga electorates while Kimunya holds brief.

The cheap philosophy of replacing like with like cheapens leadership and governance to some political liver juggling. But we cannot complain because we get the leaders we deserve.

Maybe reminding Ruto who the real power wielders are was a political reality check. Sacking him would have only succeeded in polarizing Kenyans more as we approach the referendum.

On a positive note Ruto can transfer his energy and enthusiasm, team with Prof Ongeri and reform the decaying education sector. That would be such a political coup for Bill as he partners with Uncle Sam for the national good.

You know what, him who wants to conduct the orchestra must turn his back to the crowd. Na bado.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Forget Class Wars, It's Economic Coup d'état

By Mwarang'ethe

A few days ago, Luke wrote an interesting piece on the forthcoming class war between Wanjiku and the Kenyan comparadore elite. Yes, we agree that, there may be a class war between Korogocho and Muthaiga. However, we are of the view that, a class war or tribal wars are not only suicidal, but, totally unnecessary. Thus, class wars between Korogocho and Muthaiga or tribal wars can only proceed from false consciousness. False consciousness masks the truth and makes us unable to acknowledge the precise historical occurrences. Ultimately, it distorts the true sources of social conflict with devastating consequences.

Firstly, let us bear this in mind. States are disguised military organisations. Therefore, when we deal with any and all foreign states, we must appreciate that, we are dealing with military organisations. Sample this. When the British Navy ruled the seas in the 19th Century, its navy force policed the oceans and thereby, provided cost – free insurance for British merchants shipping vessels. At the same time, its competitor’s merchant ships were forced to insure their ships against piracy, catastrophe and acts of war through London’s Lloyd’s insurance syndicate.

Also, when British Parliament adopted Adam Smith’s “free trade” as a hegemonic device in 1820, the British merchants’ banks reaped enormous profits on the India – Turkey – China opium trade. When the Chinese blocked this poison, the British military mercilessly attacked China to open its ports in the spirit of “free trade.” In the wake of these wars that humiliated China, in 1884, the US Cushing Mission to China forewarned the Chinese Imperial government “that refusal to grant American demands [commercial demands] might be regarded as an invitation to war.” Thus, when you see the Chinese being wary of human rights and Google talk from the West, it is because they have learnt correct lessons of history which Africans are sadly, yet to learn.

On 14th April, 2010, the “DN” had an editorial entitled: “Review Cost of Power.”(. Among other stuff, we read this.

“If there’s one thing that has made the life of households and businesses hard, it is the high cost of electricity. For most domestic consumers, power bills have more than doubled in the past one year. And manufacturers have electricity taking up to 40 per cent of expenses.”

We also read this:

“Pricing of electricity is a question that is often not easily answered, which is why this matter should not be left to KenGen and KPLC alone. The Electricity Regulatory Board must scrutinise the complex tax and levy computations to ensure power suppliers get no more than they deserve. Also, the costly independent power producers’ contracts should be reviewed so that taxpayers do not keep financing them long after the switch to hydro-power. Underpinning the quest for cheaper power is the argument that it will reduce the cost of business. And it should. We hope companies will follow suit and lower the prices of goods and services.”
So, what is going on here? In geopolitics, there is something called “strategic denial.” In other words, at any time in history, the powerful nations try to deny others the necessary materials for advancement. What the “DN” does not mention is that, the “complicated” price of energy from the IPPs is dictated by the IMF, WB, donors and their commercial banks. Therefore, these terms are part of an agenda. Since energy is the main ingredient in the industries, by making it expensive, our industries are crippled. This gives foreign nations a ready market which off course translates into poverty for our Kenyans.

On 15th April, 2010, the Standard wrote this in the “business section.” “Banks still bag billions in real estate.” Among other stuff, we find this. Real estate (read land speculation) remains the banker’s blue eyed boy in terms of credit facilitation taking up the second largest chunk of loans extended by commercial banks. As a result, in 2009, this speculation received Sh52.8 billion. This accounted for 19.3% of total credit to the private sector. This is second to trade (read mostly imports of consumer goods). Thus, we see that, land speculation and imports are the biggest element in commercial banking credit facilitation in 2009. Add the public debt and you get the full picture.

Inviting us to celebrate this nonsense, the reporter tells us that, “[These developments] goes miles to reflect the interesting growth potential of the industry, which has prompted banks to come up with innovative products (read more usurious) to attract more business.” However, the most interesting and equally dangerous is this. Due to high interest rates in Kenya ranging from 15-16%, “Up to 90 per cent of our financing for development comes from local banks. The other ten per cent is sourced from China and Europe, which is far much cheaper than the rates local banks extend to us," says Daniel Ojijo, the chairman of Mentor Group Limited. This man Ojijo, then happily, tells us that, “Even though lucrative, the flip side of borrowing overseas, however, means exposing ourselves to fluctuations of the dollar and thereby we have to contend with the movement of the currency."

We are then told this by Daniel Kimenyi. Kenyan banks are also offering two options for borrowing, “one in dollar terms which has minimal interest charges of up to eight per cent and charging about 14 per cent for borrowing in Kenya shillings.” He then adds this. "The rate charged on borrowing in dollar forms is indeed very attractive; however, it exposes you to the externalities of dollar fluctuations." We are then informed this. “Nonetheless, it is easier to access a mortgage than a development loan with many banks shying off from financing development projects...” So, what do we make of this monkey language?

Let us visit Latvia so as to appreciate what is coming. But, before we do this, bear in mind this statement, “The Central Bank Rate (CBR) remained at seven per cent in December last year, having been lowered from 7.75 per cent in November during the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.” We note, it is now 6.75%.

After the end of Cold War, Latvia and other former Soviet Union republics which HAD NO DEBTS, were “freed” from the “evil Empire.” They were then advised by the West (led by Sachs, he of MDGs in Africa) on how to get rich. One of the ideas they were sold is the financial policy of borrowing in foreign currency for real estate development (speculation) although the income to pay these debts was in domestic currency. Their central banks, just as ours is doing now, would then take these foreign currencies and use to import consumer goods like used women under wears as Kirubi told us.

When this land speculation bubble burst, as it will in Kenya (it need not happen because an attack on our currency will be sufficient), Latvia etc, have found themselves with huge problems on how to earn the foreign currency to pay the foreign currency denominated mortgage credit debts as well as for imports since domestic production was dismantled in the name of liberalization. Around 87% of the real estate mortgages in Latvia are in foreign currency, mainly from Swedish and German banks. Since the foreign credit has dried up, the only way to support the currency is by borrowing from foreign official agencies like IMF and the EU. In other words, incur external public debts to allow land speculators pay their loans. However, the terms are extremely destructive to say the least for they will shrink Latvian economy further because they call for more taxes, sacking of nurses etc. All this is meant to free money to pay foreign creditors. More so, this involves more shift of power from elected leaders to bankers, i.e. modern aristocracy.

What is interesting is this. The IMF and EU loans are not meant to build productive sectors in Latvia. That cannot be because Latvian market must be left for Westerns exports. The Latvians will incur debts so as to pay the Swedish banks for loans they recklessly gave to Latvians. In other words, Sweden wants to reduce the Latvian population to a state of debt peonage to foreigners. Why so? History tells us that, Sweden was indeed Latvia’s old feudal master. In simple words, Sweden is now using financial means to restore Latvia to serfdom that Latvians thought they had escaped centuries ago. The question is if Sweden is treating Latvians this way, how will they treat us when our turn comes?

Let us now revert to the CBK rates. As we noted above, the CBK’s rate is now 6.7%. Two questions are in order. Does the CBK need such a high rate? And, is such a high rate compatible with s.3 (4) (3) of the CBK Act, which requires it to formulate and implement monetary policy that “SHALL support the economic policy of the Government, including its objective for growth and employment?” As concerns the first question, any bank can cover its operations cost at 1% interest rate. Anything beyond 3% is MONOPOLISTIC PROFIT, i.e. a tax on citizens without representation. Now, having charged the banks 6.75% for putting some ink on papers, these banks in turn lend that same paper to Kenyans at 15%, a rate suitable for drug dealers. We ask, what do these banks do/create to demand such an atrocious gain? We answer nothing.

When these diabolical arrangements are read together with s.49 of the CBK Act inserted in 1996 (that time we were busy chanting as instructed, Moi must go to see this) which outlaws the ability of the CBK to extend credit to any public entity are fully understood, the intentions become clear. They are to stifle the ability of the Kenyan’s people to build their industrial base. As an example, if NOCK which is a public entity wants to borrow sh20 million to pay salaries and local suppliers, the system works like this. The CBK prints sh. 20 million for cents, lends this money to Equity at 6.75%. Thereafter, Equity lends to NOCK, i.e. Kenyans for 15%. At the end of the year, we are invited to celebrate Equity’s “success.” Yes, celebrate our slavery. Look around KK and you see a post which invited us to do this.

All this is happening because; our fiscal and monetary policy has been hijacked by a “parallel government” headquartered in the Upper Hill (look at Permanent Secretaries in Finance and Energy Ministries and you will see how long they have been there, then ask yourself why). So, why do they do this to us? The reason is very simple. As long as Kenyans cannot borrow cheaply, they cannot create the necessary industrial capacity to compete. This ensures that, we are a market for foreign manufacturers (as it was during colonial times) who can get cheap money. More so, since the foreign multinationals in Kenya can get almost free money from outside, they can expand their manufacturing capacity and crush the local firms.

In our submission to the COE in a proposal entitled: “The Money Question, the Draft Constitution & Freedom,” we requested the COE to take a hard look at our monetary system. Among other stuff, we informed it that:

“The strongly held belief in the 21st Century that bankers have a divine right to create money out of thin air, and thereafter charge interest/usury and thereby enslave those who honestly labour, will be looked at by the future generations as an obnoxious idea as we look today at the vicious idea pregnant with peril, of the bygone ages that, kings had divine right to rule. ... The tap root of freedom is unrestricted exchange. All other freedoms are appendixes of this tap root. ... Therefore, unhampered exchange is the neck of the bottle of freedom and happiness. If growth of freedom is dependent on freedom of exchange, whatever impedes exchange must be rejected while that promotes exchange and therefore, freedom of mankind should be welcomed.”

They made [the] world so hard,
Every day we got to keep on fighting,
Every day the people are dying, for hunger and starvation,
Give us the teachings of His Majesty, For we not want no devil philosophy – Bob Marley.

Monday, April 19, 2010

Juja Case Reveals How Presidential Rigging Was Poorly Executed

During the 1997 general elections I cast my vote in a very remote polling station. I noticed at a corner of the room two gentlemen whom I immediately knew were policemen. They stood at a point in the room where they could see how people marked the ballot paper. One of them was even making notes.

The two gentlemen were from the intelligence service and their work was to estimate the number of votes being cast in favour of their candidate as accurately as possible. These figures are later tallied and then the appropriate number of votes “added” in specific constituencies. Bear in mind that careful estimates are prepared in advance so the whole exercise moves very smoothly.

This is how Moi won the elections easily 1992 and 1997. The truth is that the winner in 2002 was Kenneth Matiba and in 1997 it was Mwai Kibaki.

Now you would think that if somebody played such a dirty trick on you, robbing you of victory, you would not want to do the same to others. But I probably think wrong because Kibaki used the same tactics in 2007 only that he did not do such a neat job of it and so got caught so easily.

Folks as you know the Juja seat has been declared vacant after the petition against legislator George Thuo was successful. But during the case some very fascinating things came out. Actually more evidence that Kibaki rigged the presidential poll.

Apparently a staggering total of 10,000 voters voted ONLY for the president and then walked out of the polling station. Even the presiding judge could not hide his amazement. And there’s more. No Form 16A or 17A was signed for Juja constituency. And then the most hilarious part of the whole comedy of an election was that the returning officer announced the winner on 28th December 2007 and then went on to do the tallying on 29th December 2007. His excuse? He was tired after a whole day of drama and stress and so he decided to announce the winner and then do his sums later.

This would have caused me to laugh so hard that my ribs would have been in trouble, if it wasn’t for the fact that these kind of games cost as innocent Kenyan lives in 2007, not to mention innocent women being gang raped etc. So instead of laughing it just makes me angry.

The father in the cap added by the PNU brigade was to stuff a few extra votes in the same manner in ODM strongholds. Unbelievably this had the desired effect because I have heard several people say to me that ODM also rigged. If this is true then Raila did a terrible job of rigging because he should have rigged himself into State house. And I guess the Administration police and the NSIS (the key people used in the rigging) were also taking orders from Raila. Actually they were taking orders from both Kibaki and Raila. COME ON!!! Anybody who believes such a cock and bull story should have their head examined.

But what puzzles me even more was how PNU expected to get away with such massive rigging. At least Moi’s figures were very carefully manipulated with some polling stations getting stuffed with only 300 votes or so (but this tends to add up when you do it countrywide). What happened in December 2007 is that some constituencies were stuffed with as many as 50,000 votes!!

See Nairobi airconditioning services in the current Kumekucha classifieds.

Kibaki, Moi, Ruto: 3 Most Consistent Politicians

Give it to these elegant three Kenyan leaders. They can manage to hold their forte no matter the political heat. Not even the fuming church matches their political fidelity. Ex-president Moi saw it ahead of all Kenyans and warned us as much. He was in the NO camp in 2005 and is staying put there. Kibaki likewise is not decamping from his YES stand. These two wise men epitomizes mental and political stability.

Ruto's resolute leadership of the NO camp must come as no surprise to those who know Bill well. William is his own man and unlike his peers, he won't patronize but seeks to be the patron himself. In Ruto the church has a PRINCIPLED leader and partner in the no campaign. He shoots hard from the hip and holds no hostages.

Make no mistake, Ruto's rejection of the porous draft is strongly grounded on merit and merit alone. Passing the CoE's constitution will provide the seed to fertilize ethnocentrism, nepotism and violence. Ruto and his NO brigade have selflessly warned us against the draft's exotic Bill of Rights.

You cannot fault Moi on patriotic matters, or can you? He knows better than having Wanjiku mesmerized by such a weighty and abstract matter as the constitution. Forget all that lofty talk of fundamental rights and freedoms. Nothing is more basic than the God-given right to life, security and privacy. The drive for justice is only meant to keep the civil service relevant, nothing more. And Ruto is not afraid to remind them and even take them head on.

According to Ruto, Chapter five of the Proposed Constitution on land is a sure recipe for eternal friction and chaos if not amended NOW. Well, our independence was fought with lives lost over land and Ruto and Moi have reminded those with ears and eyes as much. What is more, these two know exactly what they are talking about when it comes to land. We ignore their wise counsel at our collective national peril. All the hot air on water towers and environmental conservation must be dismissed for what they are. Vision 2030 can only be secured with enhanced investment including capable Kenyans and foreigners acquiring and modernizing our national parks, forests and water towers.

The draft's pretense on provision of equality flies hollow at the face of our African values. You only hasten your suicide mission in the villages by mentioning gender parity on land matters. No wonder Kenyans turn a blind eye to Moi's timely reminder that the draft is academic crafted to serve foreign interests. Parliament cannot pretend to have the authority prescribe minimum and maximum land holding acreages for our tribal kings. Squatters must jealously retain their status so as to have the opportunity to vote.

Ruto is more than right on his fight against a super-imperial President. He knows and has experienced the perils of bestowing powers on one person to appoint virtually all state officials including ministers, ambassadors, permanent secretaries, security chiefs and heads of government firms.

Passing the draft will deny Kenyans the political excitement derived from MPs jockeying for ministerial posts. Kenya is no US and our Cabinet must be exclusively composed of elected MPs. Pretending otherwise is to spite the squatters who vigorously campaign and vote for their lords.

Ruto and his NO camp must not waiver. It is a new dawn led by Ruto and he deserves the support of every progressive Kenyan. This is 2010 and unlike the hitherto politically-informed 2005 referendum, the present debate is issue-based.

While the No camp articulate their ideologies devoid of raw politics, the deceptive and politically faint-hearted have their eyes singularly trained on 2012 polls. Well, look no further than the two marionettes speaking from both sides of the mouth saying different things about the draft depending on the audience.

Saturday, April 17, 2010

What does Esther Arunga have to do with white Masais?

The truth is that most of my regular readers hate it when I write anything that is less than serious controversial politics. But today is Sunday and most of them are away from their computers doing what people do on Sundays and so I will do something sneaky and indulge my fascination at the infamous Esther Arunga romance saga.

Very few people have really been in love. And I am not talking about infatuation or mere lust. This is confirmed by the comments and mostly condemnation that Esther has received from Kenyans mostly telling her that she is out of her mind or that she has lost it. Isn’t this exactly what happens to somebody who falls in love? But of course most of you will not have an inkling of what I am talking about because you have never been there.

True love does not see the faults of the person you love and neither does it see the impractical things and impossibilities or even obstacles to a relationship. That is the magic of this thing called love.
Timberlake wipes the sweat from the love of his life Esther

Last night I watched a German movie based on a true story (with English subtitles) called White Masai. This thing actually happened right here in Kenya to a German woman and you can be sure that there are many other similar untold tales.

The fascinating story line for White Masai goes something like this; A Swiss woman Carola (Nina Hoss) is on holiday with her boyfriend in Mombasa Kenya. She falls in love with Masai warrior Lemalian (Jacky Ido), who happens to be at the Coast with a friend all dressed in the famous Masai attire. They actually meet on the Likoni ferry and Carola can’t get her eyes off the man and neither can the tall proud warrior stop staring at her. At the airport on the way home with her now very angry and jealous boyfriend, she makes an impulsive decision to miss her flight and stay on in Kenya. But it turns out that Lemalian has already left the Coast and gone back to his home village in Samburu District, near Maralal (a town the vast majority of Kenyans have never been to). Carola travels to the area in an old bus that is almost falling apart, and stays at the house of another European woman while she searches everywhere for the man of her dreams. Lemalian hears about her stay and comes to meet her almost two weeks after her arrival.

A few steamy love and sex scenes later Carola travels to Switzerland to sell all her earthly goods (including a prosperous shop) and comes back to Kenya to live with her man in a manyatta smeared with cow dung in a remote village with no electricity or running water. They marry and have a daughter. Carola buys a car and starts a shop, but they lose money on the shop because Lemalian freely gives credit to friends and neighbors. He argues that this is no problem because if the shop is run down, Carola has more money in Switzerland and will just send for it.

Actually the two people in love are from very different worlds. How can a semi-illiterate man understand that a shop is business and nobody in the world has an endless supply of cash? And how can a woman brought up in all the comforts of the world begin to understand traditions like the sucking of raw blood from a cow? But that’s love for you folks.

The truth is that most people on this planet live out their lifetimes without ever falling in love. But some are lucky (or is it unlucky?) enough to have it happen to them once in their lifetimes, usually at the most unexpected of times.

Go Esther, go!! Eat out your hearts love hungry envying Kenyans.

Kenyans need to find the motives of the “NO” camp

Read the second part of Luke’s thought-provoking piece on Kenya’s looming class wars.
Although I am yet to forgive Martha Karua for her role in the events that led to the post-election blood shed in early 2008, I have to agree with her 1000 per cent on her position concerning the draft constitution.

I can hear some of you asking what Martha’s role was. Well her sharp legal mind was used to find loopholes in the current constitution that would make it difficult for anybody to challenge Kibaki’s planned controversial “win.” She must have known that Kibaki planned to steal the election. Her ambition got the better of her there.

But back to the main point of this post; Martha now says that we must move forward with the new constitution at all costs because we will never stop discussing contentious issues. More so with people who constantly keep shifting the goal posts. She mentions her colleague William Ruto who was a key figure in the Naivasha talks that ironed out the contentious issues before the draft reached parliament. After all that hard work at Naivasha, Ruto then suddenly changed his position to oppose and disown the same document that has his thumbprints all over.

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Kumekucha’s quote of the day: There are really no contentious issues, only a constitution that will finish certain people.
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It seems that it has not crossed the minds of some Kenyans that there are people out there who want to frustrate this new constitution at all costs. There are really no contentious issues, only a constitution that will finish certain people. And that is why it is extremely important that we ask ourselves what the motives of Ruto, Moi and company, as well as a section of the church really are.

I had a chance to see a recorded version of a live interview that Ruto and Karua gave to the KTN Newsnight show. As always I observe the body language (I never listen to any politician without doing this) and it was obvious that Ruto was very uncomfortable on the few times that he mentioned the word “land”. And the man went on to bully the presenter, Beatrice Turkwell Marshall hogging the show as well as carefully avoiding talking at length about why exactly he is now suddenly against the land clause which he agreed with all heartedly at Naivasha. The COE is now Ruto’s favourite punching bag.

Ruto did not tell his colleagues to listen to the church in Naivasha but now that is his pet phrase. The truth my dear readers is that Ruto has received legal advice that has shown him something that he had not seen in Naivasha. And that is his personal position and ill-gotten personal wealth will be in grave danger if the new constitution is passed. It is as simple as that.

The committee of experts (COE) role in the process needs to be understood. They are experts in various aspects of constitutional law. Their work was to ensure that the whole package iss balanced and does not have technical errors or contradictions. And so Ruto should know that they were not going to copy and paste what was written in at Naivasha without any due diligence. So statements like “it was changed by the COE because of some people’s influence” is utter rubbish and an attempt to confuse Kenyans. As Martha put it so eloquently you cannot be an expert at everything and you have to leave certain things to the experts.

Meanwhile some of the stuff that is being circulated online mainly via email, by Christians pushing for a “no” vote borders on hate speech against the country’s minority Muslims. I will do a post later about why the church is wrong this time round. By the way the Catholic church is a very major landowner in the country and is also bound to be touched by the land clause which the church leaders have cleverly refused to mention as one of their reasons for rejecting the current draft constitution. And not all the church land has churches built on it. Just do a little research on who owns scores of commercial buildings in the prime Westlands area for instance and you will be shocked.

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Excerpt from kumekucha’s groundbreaking book, Dark secrets of the Kenyan presidency;

Usually president Kenyatta’s speeches were boringly predictable. He would always warn people about playing around with the valuable Uhuru which had been won by bloodshed. (Clearly he was implying threatening his presidency was “playing around with Uhuru.”) He would often pepper his Kiswahili speeches by suddenly breaking into Kikuyu vernacular. Rarely would he translate what he had just said for those Kenyans who were not Kikuyu or did not understand the language. All his speeches were so humdrum because somewhere along the line he would congratulate ordinary Kenyans for the hard work that they were putting into nation building.
So Kenyans were shocked one day when in his speech the president went down an unfamiliar path and said that it had come to his attention that some people were saying that he was incapable of fathering children. These people, the president said, claimed that when the colonialists had detained him they had tortured him to such an extent that he had lost his manhood and ability to sire children. There was shocked silence at first with many ultra-conservative Kenyans of the time embarrassed that the president would even talk about such things in public.
Kenyatta went on to castigate the people spreading such lies about him and said that any Kenyan who doubted his manhood should go ahead and ask Mama Ngina. The president’s fourth and last wife was seated right there at the dais a few short paces from where Kenyatta was making his speech. She was visibly shaken and very embarrassed (wouldn’t you be?).
Although the president’s speech had the desired effect many Kenyans still wondered. Were the rumours true? Was Kenyatta bluffing? Or was it all untrue? It is difficult to tell and we will probably never know. But the point here was that such petty bedroom talk would actually reach the president’s ears.
There are many analysts of the time who hold onto the belief that Kenyatta the man was not really a bad person. To them it was the people who surrounded the president who did all the damage. However the incident that we have just detailed would imply otherwise. That the president was often well aware of what was going on around him, even in the years that he became increasingly ill.
An incident within the precincts of parliament some time in 1965 should be an eye-opener on those who would want to absolve the old man from everything that was evil.
The incident just outside parliament was a confrontation…

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Friday, April 16, 2010

Kenya's Looming Grand Class Wars (cont)

The truth is the middle/rich class are not "cowardly" as the poor think;in fact the truth of the matter is the entire country was troubled and distressed in equal proportions by the events that took place in 2007 and the subsequent outcome in 2008. Although their immediate response was not to engage in running battles with riot police who were preventing "peaceful demonstrations" in the streets of the capital, or to uproot transit railway lines across the country, they responded in equally huge measure

Same Difference
Remember the call for massive boycotts by ordinary mwananchi of all the "wrong" transport companies, manufactured products and choice select places and locations? As Chris has said numerously before on this blog, there are media print and television houses which as late as last year had still not fully recovered their business owing to the public perception of where their political allegiance lay pre December 2007. Till date some Kenyans still refuse to drink certain milk packages, not to mention you only go to "THAT tribe's" shop if your own nearby is closed after hours or shut indefinitely

In addition to this, you must remember that the working middle class in the entire country was less than average sized and controlled fewer than even half of the capital citys dispatch and flow of relayed information yet now they faced the challenge of gaining sway over the television, print and radio formal mediums in that same year at the risk of losing the sure income stream of political mouthpiecing Instead, they had to convince ill equipped breakfast show presenters, poorly researched talk show hosts and dinasourial conservative column newspaper journalists to turn into self-styled armchair psychologists, psychiatrists and don prophetic professor caps to shine the spotlight and surgically diagnose and prescribe why what happened happend in an act designed to prick the conscience of a nation gone awry

Stuck in the middle
Still, it didn't take long for all classes to notice the bitter change of attitude in ""soldier" and "housie" The bottom line was simple-the tide had turned and the "flying toilet" slum dwellers were demanding their pound of flesh by hook or crook. Afterall, why should some father barely out of his teens himself work all his life as a domesticated household servant forced to leave
his newly married wife also barely a teen herself, and children in the rural setting and yet never live to see the inside of a Nakumatt for lack of being able to afford to shop in there?not to mention almost dying for political poverty

The innocent educated middle class were trapped in middle between hostile misunderstanding "shamba boys" who really are the wheels that run the country and the manipulative self-aggrandizing politcal elite class who had now regained the reigns of control over a country they had nearly lost to internal instability and self-threatened cessation
continued tomorrow...........


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Thursday, April 15, 2010

Kenya's Looming Grand Class Wars Soon

and why it's no longer shocking to shop, worship or unwind at your favourite local side-by-side with your slum dwelling shamba boy or "askari soldier"

A vicious modern day class war has quietly been taking place in the country over the past 3 years even as our 45 year old nation, still besieged by pre-independence vices and beleaguered with amatureish political jockeys, hurtles towards a ground breaking referendum and what could potentially be a fateful election worse than 2007 in 2 years time.

Battle lines between Kenya's upper,middle and bottom classes are already drawn and its everyone for themselves, God for us all.The three main camps bitterly pited against one another are: the "flying-toilet-jigger-infested below poverty line" slum dwellers, the educated urban "clipped-english accent speaking" middle class city dwellers, and the elite ruling political class. Unlike our maize eating oil drinking school fees guzzling sorry excuse for a politician members of parliaments, there are no grand coalitions or memorundums of understanding or KKK's political sub clans to be entered into between these 3 classes who essentially are blood brothers drawn from the same family

To understand the root cause of this 3 tier class war we have to go back to the botched 2007 stolen elections and subsequent 2008 anarchy and mayhem that followed suit. It always bothered the poor slum dwellers from Kawangare,Korogocho, mathare etc that while they were out fighting&dying for "haki yetu" between December 07 and February 08 in the streets of the capital city and dingy back alley villages across the country, life was going on virtually uninterrupted for the urban working middle class, minority rich elite and upper ruling political class without so much as a ruffled hair on their expensive well groomed barbershop and salon fashioned hair styles

Clever Poor
It was around that time that there was a substantial shift in the mindset of these majority in number modern day slum dwelling slaves. It dawned on the cooks,shamba boys, "soldiers" (security guards), mechanics and househelps that because the "wakubwas" didn't feel the same pain they felt, they had to devise a pay back strategy, one that would also see them lifted out of the soul crushing poverty in this 6% growing east african economy. mostly, they just felt hurt that they suffered and died in vain.I mean come on, not even a pat-on-the-back for all that blood shed! In any other country around the world they would have been considered the tide -shifting heroes of the hour.

All this needless unnecessary dying whilst their rich fellow kenyans continued to watch DSTV(Digital Satellite Television), eat "nyam chom" and visit the Gigiri based "Village Market", content to only wax lyrical venom at "THAT tribe" from the comfort of their 4 walled 5 bedroomed expensive upmarket real estate penthouses. The "have nots" strategy was 3 fold- first of all they knew where those urban city educated middle class cowards lived,afterall they were their everyday modern "slaves" and did just about everything for them, including looking after "daddy jr" all day long, to washing clothes for "madam", and sometimes even doing the thinking for "Baba Watoto"

Secondly, they knew how to identify those educated "british-english" speaking "cowards", be it through their portly "3-square meals-a-day" obese body frames, or from their ineloquent halting and broken kiswahili (e.g. habari yako wewe today).Failing all that, just look out for the cars they drive. The middle class stopped buying those second hand Dubai imports a looooooooong time ago. Lastly,they knew how "strong"(read weak) those learned scaredy cats were, and correctly surmised where it would hurt the most if they put the squeeze on them

Bad Attitudes
The idea was to go back to living in your slum hell hole, continue cooking, repairing vehicles, guarding those expensive penthouses etc but with a "treat me badly and see what happens" added dimension and attitude to their jobs. Examples of bad treatment include stirring up unnecessary tribal hatred while grossly underpaying them and abusing the physical manpower they offer
Continued tomorrow.........


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Wednesday, April 14, 2010

So you think you know everything about Jomo Kenyatta?

I thought I knew a lot about founding father Jomo Kenyatta. That was until I embarked on the research that went to my recently published book, Dark secrets of the Kenyan presidency.

This led me to wonder why nobody has never penned a biography of Jomo Kenyatta. Surely the man who was driving the engine when the train called Kenya steamed off from the train station for the first time deserves a detailed study. If nobody will I might just attempt this monumental task in the near future.

Meanwhile I just thought that it might be a good idea to share some of nuggets from the book here. Note that the book features a lot of material that was not published in my Weekend specials. If anything the weekend special was just a brief introduction when compared to the complete book. You can get further weekly updates on new ongoing research that I plan to add to the next print run of the book by subscribing to my email newsletter on the subject. The email address to enable you to do this is at the end of this post;

Kenyatta promised church elders never to touch alcohol?
…Jomo had stopped taking alcohol in 1920 (32 years earlier) and announced his decision before witnesses. Actually he was accused by the church of marrying without Church rites and drinking liquor. He pleaded guilty to both and promised to reform. He was further ordered to get married before a European magistrate. The strict church then finally accepted him back in 1923 (after about 3 years of carefully observing him) and in being accepted back at a ceremony Jomo promised to refrain from liquor for the rest of his life.
It would appear that his life looked up considerably after he stopped taking alcohol. For instance he turned part of his Dagoretti home into a provision shop, he called Kinyata Store. Then in 1922 he went on to secure a job at Shs 250 per month as stores clerk and water meter reader with Nairobi Municipal Council where John Cook his protégé at the church was Water Superintendent. The colonials considered Kikuyus thieves and murderers in those days and this kind of profiling prevented many of them from getting jobs that required very trustworthy people like a stores clerk or meter reader. There is little doubt that the only reason Kenyatta got this opportunity was because of John Cook and his link with the church at Thogoto for a long time.
Kenyatta bought a motorbike and also built a house at Dagoretti in the same year (1922). He went on to start an active role in politics by becoming a member of the Kikuyu Central Association in the same year. Interestingly the meter-reading job exposed Kenyatta considerably and he met many Asians who would later be key allies and supporters including the owner of the printing press who went on to print his newspaper, Mwigwithania.
With this kind of background it is not surprising that in his speech he spoke out so strongly against the taking of alcohol.
So the question we must busy ourselves with now is how did this meek old church man turn into the feared president everybody remembers? Young folks change all the time but Kenyatta was at least 68 years old when he became Kenya’s first prime Minister. How does such an old man change from what he has been all his life?
The answer is shocking…

Andwhat about this one…

Bizarre tale of witchcraft
But there is another bizarre story often told in whispers that suggests that Kenyatta was ordained to be a leader long before the 1950s started to unfold. It is a tale so far out and strange that I cannot resist telling it.

It all has to do with Kenyatta’s third wife Grace Wanjiku who died while giving birth in 1950 to her daughter Jane Wambui, who survived. Kenyatta had married her in 1946 and she was the daughter of Senior Chief Koinange and sister to Mbiyu Koinange, who later became a lifelong confidant and was one of the most powerful politicians during Kenyatta's presidency. It is whispered that…

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Kiplagat now sounding very ridiculous
Apparently Bethuel Kiplagat has hired a Public Relations firm to enable him and the TJRC receive more public acceptance. Either this firm is bogus or Kiplagat is not listening to them. The man sounds so ridiculous and so desperate to hang on to the chairmanship that it is almost funny. Only that he is wasting valuable taxpayers money and time since it is clear that the TJRC will NOT be able to fulfill its’ mandate with the old white haired man’s hands firmly and desperately grasping the chair. Even if you hire 100 PR outfits Kiplagat's image will NOT change. Poor man, after years of building respect in the international community as a diplomat, that reputation has now all flown through the window with this one bold stroke of genius from him of deciding not to resign.

Kiplagat does not need a PR firm to be told that the best thing would have been for him to step aside and then defend himself against allegations when he is OUT. As it is he looks very guilty sweating it out answering reporter’s questions.

Go home and rest Mzee, you are fighting a battle you can never win. How do you fight the masses and public opinion? Certainly not with Kifua bwana!!

See this Kumekucha classifieds for air conditioning services in Nairobi and how you can be an editor.