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Friday, December 11, 2009

Deadly political games

I can confirm to my readers that the following two incidences in political posturing have actually taken place in the very recent past.

Evictees from the Mau were never forcibly evicted in an inhuman way as William Ruto wants Kenyans to believe. Actually as the deadline to leave was approaching people were carefully instructed to leave the Mau and camp not too far off by the roadsides. The rains were pouring at the time and it was expected that they would continue for a while further heightening the misery of those who had been forced to leave the Mau and creating an uproar with the public. It was all a very carefully orchestrated thing and I can authoritatively report that cash was used to create this situation purely for political gain. What went slightly wrong was that the rains suddenly stopped and of course William Ruto had underestimated the intelligence of the Kenyan public and their ability to grasp the real issues concerning the Mau. Still Ruto achieved his objective of causing the Prime Minister to be extremely unpopular amongst the Kalenjin community and in effect to drive home the final nail in the ODM coffin. Despite what the PM and ODM high command are saying, the honeymoon is definitely over and ODM has been reduced to a shell of its’ previous self. A Luo party with pockets of small support from a few other places. Bottom line ODM is no longer the formidable national political movement it was in the run up to the 2007 elections.

Second scenario; The so-called show-of-strength-ODM meeting in Mombasa was actually a very well stage-managed affair with people being ferried mainly from different parts of the Coast province to attend the Raila rally. Organizers were very careful to downplay the huge Luo population at the Coast who are naturally diehard ODM supporters. Raila’s pointman and chief financier and organizer in all this, one Ali Hassan Joho legislator for Kisauni, Mombasa. The whole idea was to show the press that the party still has widespread support from all over the country. But does it? An interesting question I want to ask and answer. What motivated Mr Joho to spend millions of his own cash on a ship that everybody knows is sinking? The only plausible answer is that he wants to rapidly enhance his own national political profile with the 2012 general elections firmly in mind. This man wants to be the man to do business with for any presidential candidate who wants the Coast vote. That presidential candidate he does business with, winning is not important. This is an extremely lucrative business all on its’ own without the political intricacies.

These two incidences should not surprise anybody who understands Kenyan politics where appearances are everything.

28 comments:

Anonymous said...

Raila and Ruto are warlords. The blood of people killed in their Mass Action (Mass Murder) PEV will haunt them for rest of their lives. May God curse them and their generations to come.

What had blood of innocent Kenyans got to do with "stolen" elections? Kibaki and Raila meddled with election results in their strongholds and Raila should not pretend to be a saint.

ODM was formed on platform of hatred targeted against our Mt Kenya brothers and sisters. God is bringing down the ODM that was built as a tool of hatred. May Raila and Ruto rot in hell

deroo said...

Chris,

In one of my posts last week, I hinted on what happened in the Mau. I can confirm that this is one of the most successful political moves in the country since 2005 Referendum. Someone dismissed it, but, two days to the deadline, the evictees were informed to get out and stay by the roadside, to skim the humanitarian face that it came to be.

If one has access to the ODM boys in Kale land, they will tell you that their cohabitation with Raila was over and they wanted a way out.

There are cases in question, the distribution of the half-loaf, the PEV suspects and above all, the non confident motion, that William Ruto survived. It is said, Uhuru Kenyatta told him 'Dont resign, let the man bring it to the house floor'. Still rumoured, but from the person who says it, I think it is true, Raila Odinga told Ruto to carry his own cross ahead of the debate and only the Kikuyu/PNU bloc saved his skin, just.

In this, the Martha Karua bid to check Uhuru and Ruto in tandem, miserably flopped.

The larger picture is, and even without the Mau issue, there was already grumbling and it was openly said in Rift Valley. To the locals, THEY WERE USED by the Western boys. Loudly, I would say that the party was over and after the FAT LADY DANCED sometime during the maize scandal, that hit Raila, his family and close confidant Mike Njeru hard.

But things could be seen differently, I don't think most of the Kalenjin leaders attended Raila's homecoming in Bondo and the Luo bloc should have read that. At that time, my buddy Ababu Namwamba had made some noise and in his typical dictatorial trait, Raila Odinga made an effort to pitch camp at Paul Otuoma's constituency to slag the youngster. His effort might have paid off and things are not rosy either.

He sidestepped the Chris Okemos and other bigwig Luhya from Bunyala and Busia to create Otuoma as his sidekick.

On the Mombasa rally, it was organised in three days! Just three days after Ruto and Balala held a rally there? Oh NO, what a waste of democracy. Total waste. All MPs were told 'YOU HAVE TO BE THERE!' At the end of the day, a similar number of MPs who attended to Ruto roadshow at Panafric attended. And, alas, they had Peter Kenneth's career on tenterhooks. So, Kabila Adui will come to terms that he has been campaigning for Raila in his contempt to Uhuru? Trouble there.

Joho and his elder brother are no different from Ruto, Cheruyiot and Kosgey and dolling an airticket to every MP just shows the lengths that one can go achieve some things. Joho has a big sugar scandal hanging over his head and we know that! And during the rally, Mombasa Mayor called Balala Mnyama? Why? Just because he expressed an opinion. Raila, Kenya is a DEMOCRACY, not a MOBOCRACY as we saw in Mombasa and not a THUGCRACY as we know ODM can be.

In my understanding of Mvita politics, there is a substantial amount of the Arab population (read Balala's race) there and Joho, from a different constituency trying to show his might in Mvita, might as well annoy the Arabs, the wealthy Sajaads, Zubedi, Bahshwein and the lot that controlled Moi like a puppet.

I think ODM might have gone a step to far to counter one or two people. Spending Sh 20 million was going too far.

But whatever anyone says, ODM as a mass movement has suffered a massive body blow. Raila knows it, Ruto knows it and as the Kalenjins shart their way around their province, they hare locking every window of hope that was there for Raila.

Did I say TAKATAKA last week? That was low. Did I remind people about MACHOZI ya MAMBA? Painful memories. I don't know why Raila is using all his effort in this particular game that is as good as over.

-Derek-

deroo said...

Chris,

Tip for you! Can you please find out where the Mau boundary is. What is Mau? And above all, how many multinationals are in the larger Mau? Still on that, you will find out that no one in Kenya can answer those questions. The forest, a canopy of trees cannot be the Mau and it is unusual for anyone to say that they are going to drive people out of the Mau. If it is the land with many trees, yes. But when you check where Kiptagich Tea Factory is, then Mau is more than we read. It is very far and if you consider that people around Kiptagich were all given five acres to plant their tea bushes, then prepare for a storm. Then consider, every army general, every Major, Captain, LT Col, PS, MP, senior civil servant has land there, and imagine the magnitude of ODM tear and wear

Anonymous said...

Thank Goodness because with ODM finished now all Kenyans can live happily ever after with Uhuru as president, Ruto as PM and Kalonzo as VP. Moi comes back in a big way, and we go back to pot holes horaded sugar etc ...instead of good roads.
Thank goodness and thank you Chris for burying this ODM finally.....

deroo said...

No. It is Kalonzo Musyoka for Pres, Uhuru for PM and Ruto for VP. That is, still very early, if it holds. Raila will not be voted for by the Kikuyu, Ruto cannot and will not be elected president and the only one who can be elected now is Stephen Kalonzo. If Ruto manages to market him well in the Rift, then, he is home and dry.

Read Chris story and see the way the calculations have worked for the Rift. Suddenly, Gideon Moi is not popularising KANU, his father has stopped visiting every market in Rift Valley and UDM are not talking in the Rift. I think it worked for them.

Even the professors who surround Raila admit its hard. I thought they had impressive credentials as political scientists!

-Derek-

Phil said...

Chris,

Give ODM a f*cking break!

When are you going to write a piece on PNU?

ODM does not need your vote nor your constant nagging. Unlike some of you characters, we are very busy trying to debate a workable and acceptable constitution for this country.

Are you even aware that the deadline for public submissions deadline is fast approaching and here you are still imagining irrelevant things like an ODM death, instead of telling us what is own your submissions to the CoE? Pppuleeaase!

deroo said...

Constitution??? Ngoja baba! Boundaries Review first. We will shoot it down. No boundaries Review, No one-man decorum, no CONSTITUTION. Simple, clear and to the point

Anonymous said...

There is something I have read elsewhere but has not appeared here. I understand when kaleo mps say raila never won they know what they are talking about. On 30 dec 2007 raila appeared at a press conference with some one who claimed to be the returning officer of molo. The "returning offcer" claimed the votes announced at kicc were not the ones he announceed at molo. It later turned out that the chap was not the returning officer, and in fact the real returning offcer confirmed his tally was the same as that announced at kicc. This is what kaleo mps are refering to when they say raila lied to them about having won. That lie added a lot of fuel to the fire.

Why has this story not been followed up, chris? Is it too hot? and is it what the kikuyus have on raila? I remember when kibs was greeting raila during the annan talks he (kibs) used to look raila straight in the eye but raila would look down. Always wondered about that. Like kibs thought he was superior to raila. Is it because raila knew that kibs knew that raila was lying?

M-Pesa said...

Phil,

Need a chill pill?

MATERSAULK said...

I have for long avoided this blog because of the cheap politics that the writer plays. I wish you could take us back to the days when we read articles that were full of substance. Please do your research well to avoid loosing readers who are well informed like me. Like Ruto, you are a looser.

Anonymous said...

The untimely death of ODM would be most welcome. Kenya can not get the healing it needs with ODM intact and Raila in active politics. We can can not wait for this dirt to be swept into the ocean by all peace loving Kenyans.

Anonymous said...

When Raila abuses Ruto it is like a dog biting a man, it doesn't make news. But when Ruto comments on Raila it is like a man biting a dog, it creates headlines.

Anonymous said...

As a have said since mid 2008, come 2012 and ODM will be a Luo "thingamajigg." My only worry is that the Luos would be back in their usual unfortunate corner of an isolated opposition tribe. That would be terrible. But the choice is theirs; so far they have chosen to worship the Odingas at the expense of their welfare.

Anonymous said...

What is it that makes Raila get attracted to people with questionable pasts. Now he is in league with Hasan Joho as his pointman in Coast. It is widely alleged that Joho made his big money in the illegal drug trade in his 20s. If I were Raila I would keep away from this man until I get to know where this thug got his fabulous wealth at such young age.

Anonymous said...

It is not about mau they are figting for,it is the Hague.Balala,Uhuru,Ruto has one thing in common, the hague. why fight for mau and the rain doesnt come from forest. when did Ruto started fighting for plight of the poor mass? After eating our maize?

Anonymous said...

raila and fidel ate your maize mr 9:45anon ignoramus

Anonymous said...

kikuyus have long practised tribalism, especially during kibaki's first term. Kikuyu tribalism was so bad that it was easy for a politician to mobilise other tribes against them in 2007. Infact I dare say that if it hadnt been for post election violence, which made the house of Mumbi a sorry sight, Kikuyus would have completely excluded other people from the economy, notwithstanding competencies and ability to perfom.

Freedom is borne out of blood.

Anonymous said...

ruto bolts out (good riddance) with his attack dogs and part of the kale votres that haven't realized they are being used as pawns to shield the moneyed kaleos. Chris, dream on - you people have spent the betterpart of the past two years wishing for an odm (read raila) downfall. Pole baba, odm(bcoz of raila) is still the most popular party. Did I mention that is just a fraction of the RV votes? do your math, that still translates to 5 provinces and the other RV voters who can see through the ruto schemes.

Anonymous said...

QUOTE

"those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable"

Mwambu said...

Most of these rather shallow "analyses" put forth by Deroo and numerous anonymouses presuppose that these actors are rational and therefore these inane "analyses" will bring forth rational outcomes.

In order for the preferred outcomes to result we will have to know the choices and payoffs desired by each player (read politician). Is Ruto driven by the same motivation as, say, Uhuru or Kalonzo? In the event of mistrust or unwillingness by any of these actors to make concessions, then what?

What if, as is most likely to happen, the two main actors, Ruto and Uhuru are hauled to The Hague as is likely to happen sometime in late 2010 or early 2011? What if Charity Ngilu is the ODM flagbearer and not Raila?

The list of possible outcomes are infinitesimal, to say the least.

Folks, be prepared for the unexpected, or as a very sharp friend of mine would put it: beware the ides of March.

Anonymous said...

Chris please post some articles of substance it is very sad and telling at the same time, that nearly 90% of your posts focus on Raila that alone speaks volumes. It would be very interesting to see what articles you could post without mentioning this man. It comes down to free publicity for him. What I hope Kenyans ask themselves in the next elections is what are the issues that are important to them and their families and future and who amongst the presidential hopefuls share their views on these key issues. I would also hope that Kenyans look at the checkered past of the presedential candidates. If this happens, Raila should rightfully be ahead of the pact with some new faces like Peter Kenneth following behind. Kalonzo irrespective of how I feel about him personally is a coward politcally and voted against the repeal of the one party state, Uhuru made history by being the first leader of the oppposition to not seek the top seat, and prior to that did what? Ruto before joining ODM, well you need look no further than his dealings with Jirongo and KANU. Raila by no means is an angel, but other than his alleged acquisition of the Molasses Plant in Kisumu (which was on its deathbed and inactive prior to this deal or theft as some skeptics like to claim) and his other alleged acquisition of squatter land in Malindi his relatively clean as far as Kenyan politicians go. I would therefore urge those who visit this blog and Chris as well to keep hating on the man, because it just keeps his name on peoples lips no matter how bitter the taste

Anonymous said...

Good Day!!! kumekucha.blogspot.com is one of the most outstanding informational websites of its kind. I enjoy reading it every day. I will be back.

Anonymous said...

anon 5:50 aka Phil,

The only crime of Kalonzo is being a coward....and you have admitted Raila stole squatters land and Kisumu molasses plant?

You compare the two candidates, one a coward which is unsubstantiated while the other a thief!!
Who would you trust with your property??

Why are Kenyans so stupid to remain worshipping a thief aka Raila??

Anonymous said...

to the anon above, I can assure I am not Phil but I share a lot of his sentiments. If you read my comments about Raila in regards to the Molasses Plant and his land Malindi then you would hopefully recall that I referred to them as allegedly shady deals. As I believe that most politicians and especially in Africa and as this case relates Kenya are thieves, then I would definitely prefer a thief that was not a coward. As you can detect I am a Raila supporter and I appreciate your comments for the simple fact that you have kept with the tread of this blog and mentioned the Prime Minister's name. kudos to you

Philip said...

I can bet to anybody that there are Kenyans who can see and those who can't see. The number of Kenyans who can see is increasing and that's why the alliance of Uhuru, Ruto and Kalonzo, though looking indefeatable, can be fought.

The chain that tie them together is rusty. In 1992 we know what happened to FORD. I don't mean to say that Moi did a good thing. I was among the most disappointed.

Uhuru wants to be the flagbearer, Kalonzo wants to be the flagbearer, Ruto wants to be the flagbearer. The later knows that's what the Kalenjins want but he knows he has the minimal chances to be voted as president of Kenya. The way ODM crumbled is the way this will crumble if it wins since the purpose is similar to the one ODM had back in 2007.

Going by Mwambu's arguement you never know what is going to happen this coming three years.

People did not want Kanu in 2002 and I don't think that has changed. Most of us blogging here have already eaten the fruits of rise in economy since 2002, and we also experienced the bitter roots of Kanu leadership, which is coming back through the back door.

The two major tribes, Kikuyus and Kalenjins, are likely not to vote for Raila. So what tells you that he will not support someone else for presidency?

I hope these are just the birth pains that will lead to the fall of these leaders and the rise of good leaders amongst we Kenyans.

Anonymous said...

Wapi weekedn special!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ptor

Anonymous said...

There is no party with a manifesto to ruin kenya. Ati KANU coming back! Name one key figure in gava who is not kanu.

Obongita said...

In Kenya it is not about xenophobia but Railaphobia (Raila blah Raira blah, Raila blah Raira Blah blah blah blah). After stealing votes from this poor man, there is only one word of advice. Every action have equal but opposite (sometimes proportional) reactions. That day is coming when one second will count for everything. Not a single word that is written will fail to come to pass. That which you cant kill please don't hunt. Can anyone out there just tell me how could 1 man unite 41 tribe in a country of 42 tribes!!! and who tell them uniting 41 tribes (again!!!) will be a mirage given the kind of talks perpetuated by one group of patriotic Kenyans. Did I hear someone say with ODM gone, then Kenya will heal!!! perhaps someone is suffering from acute amnesia. Anyway the ground is opened till 21st November 2012, if you don't talk now it could be too long silence, thereafter. You stole it once and will require miracles of Jesus times (unfortunately they are now in short supply) to repeat such miracles. Did some guy also say "ODM was formed on platform of hatred targeted against our Mt Kenya brothers and sisters. God is bringing down the ODM that was built as a tool of hatred". As long as such kind of talks continue, the hatred is there and perhaps (only perhaps) this time it could be for real unity of 41 tribes. I guess, hell has never come to Kenya. But....there is always the first time. A tip of the iceberg.

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