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Wednesday, September 17, 2008

A Bird’s Eye View Of Kenyan Politics In The Months To Come

On the London eye high above London recently where you are able to see huge chunks of the city widely recognized as the financial capital of the world, I was reminded of the place where my father was born high up in the hills that used to be called the Iveti hills in Machakos. When you are coming down to Machakos town you can actually see very far. Far enough to tell that the car coming rounding the corner down there at high speed is bound to have a head on collision with the lorry approaching the same corner from the opposite direction. Those on the ground cannot see this, but from up there you are able to clearly see it all.

That is the view I have been trying to get of the currently chaotic Kenyan political landscape as I stayed away from penning anything in my beloved Kumekucha blog (because the truth is that I can make posts from anywhere in the world. Even the Sahara desert as long as I can get an internet connection). You see I hate to write any politics when I don’t have a bird’s eye view of what is really happening.


What I can tell you my dear friends is that I have emerged from this hiatus with a much clearer mind and with numerous clear ideas to make Kumekucha even better. Briefly on the subject of improvements in this blog, I will regularly do a news round up where I will link to other news sources online. Just like I did this morning to the disappointment of some readers here and the delight of our enemies who took the opportunity to declare the death and burial of Kumekucha (poleni sana, mambo bado).


But for today I want to talk about Martha Karuas bid for the presidency. The first thing is that it excites me very much. It is a sign that Kenyan politics is about to change and to change dramatically. Mainly because her politics are different from the old school politics everybody else is playing. Indeed she is a breath of much needed fresh air. Regulars here will know that I have a clear bias when it comes to choosing between a man and a woman in politics. I think history and the track record in Kenya clearly shows us that women make better leaders most of the time.


However I have a few serious problems with Ms Karua’s bid. Top on my list is the fact that she was a chief architect of the events of last December 29th and thereabouts. She used her sharp legal mind to steer a ship called Mwai Kibaki safely through some sharp jutting rocks and right back into State House. Of course it was all at great cost to human life, not to mention financial cost to the country. I will say nothing further on that subject.


But back to my excitement. Karua’s effort will of course fail. Not because she is a woman. But because the strategy being used by her and her backers will not work in 2012. It is the same strategy that ODM used. Which means that we should expect many more declarations of intent in the months to come and then finally all these presidential candidates will declare one of their own “tosha.”


Time and again it has been proven that politics is too fluid and I will repeat again that the tactics of 2007 will NOT work in 2012. Incidentally I need to ask the million shilling question. Does the fact that everybody is adopting the tactics Raila used in 2007 mean that they are all telling us it was Raila who won those elections by a near land-slide? You tell me? Ama does it mean that they are adopting a loser’s strategy?


Finally I will say something about our beloved Prime Minister. Again this is NOT personal. Just pure cold political analysis. The truth of the matter is that immediately somebody gets into government in an environment where there is competitive politics (and NOT the mama na baba days of Kanu) it simply means that they are in the twilight years of their political careers. This is the situation with Raila. It is unlikely that Agwambo will garner the same support he received in 2007 and you can take that to the bank. I already feel the barbs flying through the air towards me but let me ask two simple questions before I take cover. Why is it that the Prime Minister has said nothing about the shoddy treatment meted out to Jacinta Mwatela the former deputy governor of the Central Bank? His silence has been way too loud. My second question is why is it that the Prime Minister was initially against a similar move made at NSSF against another woman only to backtrack a few days later and support his cabinet colleague? The answers to those questions are explosive to say the least and are published in my raw notes which will be released early next week.


News Round Up By Chris

It seems that the troubles of PNU are not ending soon as 8 MPs ditch PNU

Meanwhile Kimunya the former finance minister has taken to golf and winning golf tournaments

Did you know that originally the KICC was meant to be 7 storeys?

Now Mwatela's husband who is a politician speaks out

30 comments:

Anonymous said...

Welcome back Chris, sure the odmorons will be over themselves trying to defend the expiring molasses dimwit..expect barbs from kalamari, okello and moron babies like phil.
well keep the flame burning but you cheated us on your 'expose' of the rot in ODM. you clearly developed cold feet there bro.


kumekucha prefect

Anonymous said...

ooh and i forgot the flat faced Taabu and his meaningless load of bombastics crap....



Kumekucha Prefect

Anonymous said...

First, I agree that Martha Karua has a snow balls chance in hell to be elected president in her life time. Rift Valley, Western and Nyanza are not going to forget easily what she did. Second (and again hate me for this) she comes from the 'wrong' tribe. Gema has already had two chances - through kenyatta and Kibaki - another one this early will be too hard for others to swallow.

About Raila - it depends on how he will explain himself come2012. If he tells us why he kept quiet when Mwatela was being kicked out and it is satisfactory then he will be elected. Otherwise watch closely for Mudavadi - not Rutto or Kalonzo - for 2012.

Kwale said...

Chris, I love you. With brotherly love of course!

The fact that you have chosen to come out of your closet and speak your mind is a cracker! It's funny to note it took you 9 months in the wilderness to realise Raila Odinga goose is cooked. Take heart, wilderness is the place of new beginnings, a place where you get your perceptive in the right direction and above all it's a place of new strength. And it looks like you have found that strength and courage. But I fear railaisjesus.me.ke faithful will come out with their usual barrage of missiles. But fear not!

Hopefully this spell a new beginning for Kumekucha. Look forward to read more sober posts from you.

Taabu said...

Kwale,
Nice to see you acknowlegde change of tact in Chris. But can you please take a sip from the same cup or yours is irredemeably leaking? Your obsession with hatred or dislike for one person doesn't doyour prefered choice any good. Instead it often makes you go person revealing more about yourself whish is not only irrelevant but acutely embarassing. Cut the crap and stop getting obsessed with trivia, will you? Don't even try becasue I know the answer from you-so predictable, indulge.

JEFF said...

Chris,

There is a saying from my place that one should not dance themselves lame before the actual dance. Martha Karua's project is doomed to fail, but not because of what you are calling copy-cat ideas.

By the way Raila's strategy about sprouting tribal kings here and there was obvious to everyone, hata wewe Chris. We knew at the end each tribal king, even though pretending to gun for the presidency, would swear allegiance to the one and only. The only strategy that worked for Raila was the balkanisation of the country and generation of hate towards certain communities, and then unleashing violence against these communities when he was not declared winner. If you call this strategy, then the desired outcomes were exceeded by an unexpected margin, beyond the dreams of ODM.

But back to Karua. I don't admire anybody who makes a decision based on emotion and not principle. Karua's is, and this is why she will fail.

To succeed in Kenyan politics, you have to prove that you can bring more ugali on the table than your opponents. For one, Karua's open defiance of her principal, Bwana Kibaki, will not be taken kindly by Central Province, not even in Gichugu. In ugali matters, whether real or perceived, Kibaki is still seen as a major factor due to incubency, among other factors. And then everybody knows that she is on a revenge mission after missing a slot among the DPMs. Here she is therefore up against a rock.

Secondly, she will not succeed by stepping on everybody she percieves as an enemy (Kibaki,Uhuru,Saitoti, etc). You must strive to form alliances of convenience even with percived enemies. Remember even some supporters of these 'enemies' would be willing to work with her, but her conduct only succeeds in isolating them. If this is the case even in Central, where will she get her 'head-start' from? Tana River?

And then there is the emotive issue of her role during the GCG negotiations. Obviously, ODM sympathisers are unhappy things did not work out their way. All because of her. Will they ever forgive her?

M-Pesa said...

Clearly we see that Raila is already damaged goods. His reputation is beyond any super gloss because too much innocent blood was shed in his greed for power not only on the botched '82 coup attempt which he gloats about, but also in last year's general elections.

Agwambo is guilty as a sin as charged. After being given PM's powers, we find he's gotten himself tipsy with all the confort, luxury, trappings and freebies that come with his office to a point of losing control of his party to bickering rebels who refuse to shut up despite the intimidation.

Age is another factor working against Raila, he's rolling in his 60's despite the constant dye he applies on his grey hair. I really can't see him ever being president of this great country called Kenya.

Chris is also right that Agwambo has his head deep in his backside and can't even see the terrible injustices being meted out on Mwatela who is adored by millions of young Kenyan girls. That's a betrayal that most ODMers will never forgive or forget quickly.

ODM is just like all other political parties, tribal to the core! It's nothing without Raila while Raila is also an empty shell without the Kalenjins. Agwambo is doing 120 M/h in the WRONG direction. Mark my words!

Chris said...

Shiko, Ivy and Mkenya, thank you so much for welcoming me back in the last post. In this one I thank anon @3:25. I really appreciate ur warm acknowledgment guys.

Although I must be careful because I am starting to feel like a politician having one of those homecoming things.

Why lie it is good to be back folks. I also missed u all terribly.

-Kumekucha-

Kwale said...

Taabu,
Do you really think I care about embarrassments? I don't give a toast how you perceive me. Thats your problem. My dislike for molasses is perfect and permanent.
When 1000+ lives dies and a cretin like him fails to appeal for calm and stop the killing, it left me with one thing for him, dislike!! Perfect hate!!
Destinies of more than 1000 lives in the graves? For what?! Stolen election? Or is not Raila pure quest for power. These are the same people who one day would have become the leaders of Kenya, scientists, astronauts, inventors, etc it hurts me to imagine that!

Phil said...

Now we have people who are NOT even registered voters deciding the fate of Raila Odinga in future political alignments.

Let me remind you, Raila does not need your voteless support neither is he desperate to please bloggers who have got no idea what goes on on the ground around the country.

What I am telling you guys is that ODM is now a equal partner in the Grand Coalition Government. You should not expect the party, therefore, to score own goals like the captain put it.

We've heard that line that Raila is unelectable before. If he was not, the he wouldn't be for instance subject of constant newspaper headlines locally and internationally, would he? This is now 2008 and frankly speaking, the 'unelectable story' IS A TIRED LINE!

Makes me wonder whether this is the so called Chris' bird's eye view! My foot.

Meanwhile I am reserving my comments about the Kriegler report until I read it in full. My initial feeling is that he has not told us anything NEW, which is disappointing considering the fanfare, hope and of course the costs involved when he started his work. But more on this later.

Kwale said...

This is what makes me sick to my stomach!

Ati" …he wouldn't be for instance subject of constant newspaper headlines locally and internationally, would he...?"

Which international newspapers??! This is an archetypical, maladjusted, misguided cretin characteristic of railaodingaisjesus.me.ke

I don't give a tinker's cuss of what you think about me here anymore, I am just fed up. When will this Raila worship stop?!!!

Taabu said...

Kwale,
Take a big breathe bro, IN...OUT. Don't get frustrated, just try a new line your kite of me.ke is not flying, POLE. You must be having one of those rare traits in entertaining yourself fully on a stuck record. Even pedestrian tantrums need a new sheen of freshness if they are to sell, will you?

Phil said...

He he he he Kwale,

Are you even a voter in this country and are you adding any value to Kibaki's or indeed PNU's political aspirations?

Let me repeat. Call it hero worship or whatever. RAO is in a league of his own so much so that when he does not talk, people get upset!

Hoping that you will still be blogging here in the years to come, I can assure you, barring the usual government engineered assassination plots, RAO will be the head of government and/or state in the not so distant future.

Nauki choka, meza wembe.

E-cop said...

Kwale,
go ahead and get frustrated, no one here is bothered or even cares.your support or lack thereof for either Raila or Kibaki is, as Phil notes, voteless and lacking knowledge of reality on the ground-when was the last time you were actually home in Kenya?
enjoy the GB £ pound my brother-it is so strong recession or no recession- life is sweet when remote patriotism is reduced to typing pretentiously on keyboards while displaying false e-anger at perceived enemies

Anonymous said...

Let's recapitulate Karua's bid or lack thereof for the presidency:

-Her involvement/vocalness in the post election of Dec 07 that almost brought Kenya to the brink of war.
-Her gender, like it or not, Kenya is too much a male chauvanistic society that will not allow a woman to be president, especially one Martha 'Wamugunda' Karua.
-She is from the 'WRONG TRIBE', period.
-Outside Central and parts of Eastern, where else can she galvanize the grassroots votes that are badly needed to ascend into that office?
-She lacks the 'monetary machine' to win a presidential election.

Anonymous said...

This Kwale clown is just sick, so consumed with irrational and demented hatred for Raila. like someone said yesterday he should consider checking into Mathare mental hospital. He is clearly in need of psychological and psychiatric treatment to clean his poisoned mind.

Anonymous said...

Folks, why give idiot KWALE undue publicity - ignore his rants and he may just go back to mashada where he can join birds of the same feather in eating, sleeping and dreaming Raila.

Chris, do you realize idiots like kumekucha prefect 'only have kinds words for you' becuase you are dancing to their tune? Take a 'detour' and the insults will come back flying(honestly how did you put up with all the matusi for so long?)Was that why you took the break?

Kwale said...

FYI, I voted in 2007, but since you started killing each other I had no more hope for the country.
And besides that, why would I want to live in a country of perpetual fear—in houses with iron gates, electric fences, dogs and guards, panic buttons, security firms just like a prison when I can live a simple life elsewhere without any fear and still have a say in Kenyan politics.

Taabu said...

Tell them Kwale. Tell them. You play in exclussive champsionship LEAGUE and CANNOT be relagated to nyasi tournaments (sorry matatu from F1). Not many people are that LUCKY as prodigal and exotic Kwale you know. Those castigating you for remote patriotism miss the boat by a river when they fail to recognize your address.

Tom said...

What was Martha's role in the post election violence? Calling out ODM on their bluff?, which has now been seen by everyone? Come on chaps, lets stop justifying Dr Watson's theory by apportioning blame to the wrong person. We all now know that ODM was responsible for the post election violence. The kyuks simply defended themselves, like any rational human being would.

Kimi Raikkonen said...

Do you suffer from a "Moses comes down from the mountain with the ten commandments" complex? Are you sure yours is a bird's eye view if you do not even know that New York, NOT London, is the financial capital of the world? Your view must be that of a cock-eyed parrot on your shoulder looking at your feet, THAT is how high your pedestal is in trying to achieve your bird's eye view. It is why you cannot be realistic in claiming that you want to talk about Karua and her political ship(which hasn't even left Port) but end up saying nothing new, or remotely enlightening.

Papi said...

Kenyans should begin moving away from the culture of hero-worshipping. Glory belongs to one, the most high, the exalted one. The moment this registers, is when we shall be moving in the right direction

Anonymous said...

Kwale,

Ati have a say in kenyan politics? Dream on.. how does the verbal diarrhoea you spew on the internet influence Kenyan politics? In case you haven't noticed, shouting yourself hoarse from your 'ivory tower' makes everyone view you as the uncultured idiot you are. Living in EXILE in europe...since you were eleven does not make you any more superior. Be proud of your background and culture - doesn't matter how poor or backward. You behave like a little kid who wishes he could move in with the neighbors because they eat 'nice food' compared to the usual ugali and skuma wiki at his home.
And please stop that childish behavior of thinking that anyone is mesmerized by your usual tired and boring line about being a formula one fan.
Get back to earth!!

Shiko-Msa said...

Sawa KK. Good to have you back.

E-cop said...

there are some people whose job is just to criticize whatever Chris does or doesn't do and never enlighten the rest of us on what it is that makes they themselves so right in the first place but will be quick to defend their right to be wrong without giving away the fact that they are only right because Chris is wrong.Eh! wonders never cease

Anonymous said...

Chris
Is this all you got ? after soul seraching and meditation, common men .Raila is a spent force we cant vote a president who is already tired we need someone energetic and inspiring.

Anonymous said...

Kumekucha Prefect

Your predictions were precise, Taabu, Phil and the rest of odmorons came daggers drawn trying to justify why Kenya should rely on the light from the dying embers of the light that was raila.
seems these guysb dont read the expiry date on their already stale and worm infested molasses brand.

thanx chris, ignore the dimwits. they used to sing baba moi song until he retired so do not expect anything better. molasses will be better of preaching the `cut gospel` and providing for his fat lady who was forced by the peace loving Kenyans from sucking the public coffers off 400,000kshs per month.


Ivy

Anonymous said...

Kwale @ 7.20 AM,

When will this Raila hatred stop? You have the answer to your own question.

You have to understand that between love and hate, I would only question why the hatred and not why the love.

What happens when you can't find any fault in someone? You hate him.

The more you hate Raila, the more millions of Kenyans and of course hundreds of millions of men and women worldwide love him.

Anonymous said...

Ati when will this rao hatred stop! And when will this rao worship stop? How can one with a IQ of 60 not dislike rao when he/she reads what phil writes. Dont you people get it! Rao can be prezo. Of course nothing will change. But we dont like the worship. Get it. And we are not all kiuks.

Kwale, I live in kenya but I think you are right. I go to europe and North america once in a while and i have to say it would be great to live there parmanently. It is so "tiresome" to live with idiots.

Anonymous said...

Chris , i have some home work for you that will help solve this "Krieglers riddle", please pull up election results for 92/97/2002 , then clearly correlate the number of seats in parliament the winning party had compared to the elections last year , this should bring a closure to this matter , and BTW glad to have you back.If it is possible to win the presidency with the GEMA votes only the Kibaki would have beat MOI in 97.

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