Listening to the much anticipated NSIS testimony in the Waki commission by the commissioner general Brig. Michael Gichnagi, I could not help getting the impression that I was listening to a man who felt he was under siege.
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I could not believe my ears when a lot of his testimony came out as a desperate defense of the organization he runs which at the moment Kenyans have very little confidence in. I really wished that I had had an opportunity to cross examine the man, because based on what I know, there were so many holes that could be blown in his testimony.
Most of the testimony from the NSIS was delivered by one of Gichangi’s juniors, actually a very carefully chosen individual for the task. But that is anither story for another day.
The NSIS claims that they had predicted that chaos would break out whoever whether Kibaki or Raila won the elections. It was then further said that one of the scenarios that was considered was ODM going to court to dispute election results (confirming my raw notes story on among other things the advice that Gichangi gave the president that led to 31st December being declared a public holiday, mainly to frustrate the court move. This clearly illustrates how the unit completely mis-read ODM and their intentions.)
Reading between the lines of the testimony, it is clear that the local intelligence community were expecting trouble only from “those Luos”. Indeed this explains the heavy-handedness used in Kisumu (live bullets). I am also reliably informed that some of the protestors in Kenya’s third largest city were drowned in Lake Victoria to keep body count figures “under control.” That is why official figures that claim that only about 1,000 died from post-election skirmishes hurts many Kenyans who lost loved ones.
In sharp contrast in the Rift Valley, where clearly the NSIS did not expect serious problems, security forces were taken totally unawares. Anybody can see that the heavily armed security personnel (Kisumu residents and Hon James Orengo insist that they were Ugnadan soldiers) would have been more justified in the Rift Valley. Fascinatingly, as late as during the Kofi Anan talks, people were still talking about “these Luos” causing trouble. Even when reports indicated that Kalenjin warriors were arming themselves for a major second assault if the talks failed.
Most of all it is quite likely that the so-called NSIS analysts did not have some key information that would have been critical in making quality decisions about the Kalenjin which in my view would have saved hundreds or even thousands of precious Kenyan lives. This ignorance is supported by the odd incident given the go-ahead by PNU top brass handling President Kibaki’s campaign, where hate leaflets were distributed in the Rift Valley warning of a Kalenjin persecution if Raila won the presidency. See a copy of the controversial hate leaflet HERE.
In retrospect that leaflet was laughable and a waste of the considerable government resources that were used to get them printed and distributed. Interestingly some sources have linked government spokesman, Alfred Mutua to the silly idea. Anybody who understands the Nandi and the Kalenjin in general as well as you will after reading My weekend special tomorrow would have known that printing the said leaflets would in fact have the very opposite effect—which is exactly what happened.
Another interesting aspect of the NSIS report to the Waki commission worth noting is their indication that tribal troubles in Kenya were heightened after the 2005 referendum. If this is true then blame falls squarely on the laps of one Emilio Stanley Mwai Kibaki who was told by dozens of desperate delegations to postpone the referendum and let tribal tensions cool first. He stubbornly ignored the calls. It is quite likely that former President Moi in all his thieving ways would have sensed danger and called off the referendum. Kibaki showed the same deadly error of judgment in the games he played in the 2007 general elections thinking that the worst that would happen would be ODM bringing up a court injunction to stop him from being sworn in for a second terms hence the terribly hurried bedroom swearing in.
P.S. Have you noticed that certain commentators have disappeared from this blog since my articles on the NSIS earlier this week? Just wondering if anybody else has noticed it and what it may mean.
P.S. 2: What is in this week’s raw notes (aiii, wacha tu)!! In fact I cannot dare mention it in this public forum. That’s how HOT it is. No kidding!! However you can get a FREE sneak preview of this red hot saga from my weekly Kumekucha Confidential. Email Me right away for it. It’s FREE kabisa.