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Saturday, May 17, 2008

What Are The Political Fireworks Really All About?

The big question keen analysts of Kenyan politics are asking themselves this week is a simple one but complex to answer. That is, is the PM against the formation of a grand opposition or is he secretly for it?

Our own Phil of Kumekucha said here last week that secretly Raila supports the formation of the grand coalition as a way to keep his PNU opponents in check. Indeed the statement the Prime Minister gave a few hours ago in Western Kenya seems to suggest that if indeed the PM was against the formation of an opposition then he has softened his stand. Raila told journalists that he had no problem with back-benchers forming an opposition only that they would have to form a new political party and seek fresh mandate since it was not feasible for an MP in the ruling coalition to at the same time be in the opposition.

The reason why this question of the PM's stand is so important is because if it is indeed true that Raila is strongly against the formation of an opposition, the the only other conclusion we can make is that there is a serious rebellion brewing within the ranks of ODM which could threaten the existence of the shaky coalition government. Not that PNU is doing any better.

Then there is the question of the Kibaki succession which is clearly shaping up to be some very serious business that will make the Moi succession seem like kid's play.

Yours truly is very busy digesting unfolding events countrywide and will be back here before the weekend is out to give you a more substantial post of what is really going on.

Rumours persist that Mike Tyson will fight again very soon and guess who his opponent is?

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18 comments:

Anonymous said...

Chris,

If you are blank and your other annointed/appointed posters to this blog have run out of ideas - then fire them and bring others on board. Otherwise how do you keep a post for 48 hours ( previous post). There is much going on in Kenya - politics, business and otherwise that the cream of Kenya (God forbid) in this blog can extrapolate. As you and bloggers here demand performance in the grand eating coalition - we likewise demand performance in this blog.

If its the new logo that is letting guys go to slumber and forget kumekucha, then bring back the old logo. Seemed we were more active with it.


Mzee wa Kijiji

Anonymous said...

A party already in the gov can not be at the same time on the opposition side.

ODM and PNU backbenchers can oppose bills intended to harm taxpayers, which would be in line with their respective party policies.

There is no need for Grand Opposition. Only Karua and Uhuru are interested but everybody knows what they are after.

Anonymous said...

Why should Angloleasing investigations to be done secretly. This is a corrupt PNU interest which ODM should not entertain.

Anonymous said...

Chris

You have asked me before why I advocated for self determination and secession

The reason is in this article

http://www.nationmedia.com/dailynation/nmgcontententry.asp?category_id=1&newsid=123536

As they have discussed many times before, central or GEMA does not and cannot endorse anyone outside of Central or Eastern. THere is no point in even trying to make it work. It will not happen. Unfortunately the guys living outside of GEMA province may not necessarily share this view, but its immaterial because they will alway bear the brunt of resent targeting this GEMA intransigence. As you can see the wounds from December are not yet healed and they are back to the exact same myopic cause.

Those inflated numbers of 2007 will not work this time round so come 2012 or whenever, the choice is to either stifle voting in all other provinces or otherwise manipulate them resulting once again in another round of violence.

THe best deal is to let GEMA+A rule GEMA provinces and let the other provinces lead seperate administration. This is the truth GEMA provinces do not want to be led by a member outside of their community so let the RAO, Rutos who are trying to make in-roads through collaboration, ceding ground etc, step out of dreamland and as I've been told here many times, let them smell the coffee.

Ababu Namwamba, I hope you are listening, I dont support the opposition under the current accord but do use your time to start a self determination struggle for the other provinces. We do not need to keep showing each other who has more political muscle, let us go our separate ways

UrXlnc

Anonymous said...

Why should the youth of Kisumu and Eldoret be imprisoned while Mungiki, Kivuitu, Kibaki, Karua, Exams Council are free?

Anonymous said...

I think the pnu think tank has strategeised how to pull Raila underneath kibaki level ,first it was the protocal issue and now endorsements for kalonzo , by starting an imaginery cat fight btwn kalonzo and raila they will succesivly keep kibaki above pettiness and hence diminish the clout that the pm is already developing.these guyz will dump kalonzo as soon as the kivuitu of that time blasts the gun for the race to state house , the mkamba is so daft to see how he is being used, meanwhile the mwau -ngilu alliance will keep him busy.

Anonymous said...

Chris:

Don't try to read too much into Raila's stand with respect to the formation of Grand Opposition. It is another "don't buy Safaricom shares, please buy Safaricom shares" kind of affair. The waffling would have been okay if he were still an opposition activist, but when he is the PM it sounds pathetic straddling. Soon he is going to learn that it was glamourous to oppose, but solve people's problems is like grinding ones teeth.

Proud Kikuyu Woman said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Proud Kikuyu Woman said...

It's probably true what they say, that power corrupts. In 2000 it was Kibaki asking us to take to the streets and demand a new constitution from Moi. It took Ngilu and co. to remind him that mass protests are synonymous with bloodshed in Kenya. People voted Kibaki president, and it ended up taking more blood for Kibaki and co. to promise Kenyans a new constitution. Now it is Raila Odinga, a man who has been in the opposition for as long as I've been politically informed, that is now opposed to the very idea of an opposition. How things change.

Knoppix!® said...

I have been having similar feelings that RAAAO is the one fronting Ababu and i said it before.A blogger on this very blog indicated as much.

Methinks RAO knows if the coalition doesnt work he will fall back and join a rather weak opposition to make himself heard.

Its not a bad idea according to the premise i see it from.

Anonymous said...

I need abit of political teaching from the elite of this blog - What is the problem of having/or not having a recognised opposition in the parliament as constituted today? What is this Rao and Kibaki are seeing in this whole scheme of things with opposition schemes that am unable to to comprehend?

Whats the gist of this whole thing?

Mzee wa kijiji?

Anonymous said...

RAO is not very popular outside Kenya. Did you hear Americans right-wing politicians are trying to use Obama link with ODM leader (RAO) to discredit him.
I remember watching a British TV channel during the height of Kenya post election violence and one of the pundits from British Govt was poignantly praising Kibaki record on development and Economic growth and dismissing Raila Liberal stance.

Anonymous said...

To Knoppix,

I read one of your post the other day, yes I know it’s outdated but sorry I was not able to reply back to you then. If I can remember you said there is no pure Kikuyu and that many Kikuyu men were killed resorting in Kiuk women marrying Luos and Masaais men. Can I say this is inaccurate and total crap. Kikuyus have never intermarried with Luos at any time before colonization. The first Kikuyu–Luo romance was the infamous Wambui/ Otieno fairytale and none has ever been recorded before that.
As for Masai/Kikuyu, this has been going on since the beginning of the time. As a matter of fact, during Masaai civil war in the 19 century, many Kikuyu families adopted Masaai orphans and it was known at the time, there were no pure Masaai and most Kikuyu especially the ones of Kiambu were known to have Masaai blood in them. Jomo Kenyatta maternal grandmother was a Masaai.
During colonial era, many Kikuyus continued to intermarry with masaai and also with the white settlers. Many Kikuyus of Nyeri and Thika have white ancestry in them. Kikuyus are the most intermarried community in all Kenya ethnic groups. So please before you post any comment, read the history and facts first.

Wambui.

Anonymous said...

anon8:49 AM

you must be lost or blind! my relatives started intermarraiges in the 40's during migration - i'm a kikuyu and have a great grand mother who is a luo! where the heck do you come in with the present Wambui Otieno?? that is so recent!! kenyans tribes have inter-married foreve- just because it is not reported on on national media does not mean it has not been happening-remove your tribal nose from the sand and smell the the roses- i hate it when kenyans come out filthy carrying the tribal flag!!get real and start seeing kenya in it's true colours instead of pretending!! tribes have inter-married forever look around you!!sicko!!

Anonymous said...

Anon 4.09... I definetly don't have Luo blood in me.
Prove to me your great grand mother was Luo.

Anonymous said...

Anon 4.09…I definitely do not have Luo blood in me. God forbid!

Anonymous said...

I heard someone argue that it is up to the courts to decide if the polls violence suspects should be released , in my opinion courts can only rule on a case that has been brought before them , if suspects are still in police custody then the courts have no jurisdiction , this should be a call by the chief Govt presuctor(TOBIKO KERIYAKO i always thought this guy was japanese) who is under the AG , this is the office that should verify the evidence that the police have collected and decide if they are credible enought to stand in court .At this point the AG just like he does in corruption cases can order the release of suspects based on lack of tangible evidence , the police are not credible enough they are part n parcel of the killings by commision or ommision .

Anonymous said...

good point anon

dont mean to introduce jokes in a serious matter, but the japanese names remind me of some that should already be dubbbed on some of our useless leaders. names like Akashyuta Akahayra (nickname AA or mta-do) would be most appropriate for some of the ruling elites

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