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Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Raila, Mboya And How History Always Repeats Itself

David Goldsworthy never met Tom Mboya and yet the Australian political scientist penned a classic work on the brilliant politician; Tom Mboya: The Man Kenya wanted to forget that is an absolute must-read for anybody who wants to understand Kenyan politics.

In that fascinating read (now sadly out of print) Goldsworthy notes the most serious mistake the otherwise brilliant Tom Mboya made. In fact it was the mistake that cost him his life. The Kiambu mafia used Mboya to deal with what was the most serious threat to the Kenyatta presidency—the Luo threat through the then community leader Jaramogi Oginga Odinga. Mboya saw Jaramogi as nothing more than a tribal chief. Jaramogi saw Mboya as a young upstart who though he was too smart. There was absolutely no love lost between the two. This was probably one of the reasons why Mboya used his brilliance to finish off Jaramogi politically in the most ruthless manner. That was Mboya’s big mistake because as Goldsworthy notes, when the job was done and Jaramogi was safely out of the way, this in fact paved way for the assassination of Mboya. He had finished his assignment and was the only threat remaining in the horizon for the Kiambu mafia who were at the time already accumulating wealth like Kenya was about to shut down.

In other words, in politics it is not a good thing to finish off your enemy completely because as long as they exist there is work for you and therefore your long term survival is guaranteed.

Fascinatingly the son of Mboya’s arch enemy is in that exact position now that Mboya was in 1969. Raila Odinga as Prime Minister is rapidly proving that old adage that it is what you make of the office that determines exactly the kind of power one wields. But one of the assignments that the Prime Minister has found increasingly placed on his laps is that of sorting out the mess in the Rift Valley. His close supporters are enraged that Agwambo should end up being asked to clean up the mess that was in fact caused by the decision to steal the presidency from him. But then that is life. Raila is the Prime Minister of Kenya and he has to deal with the most serious problem facing Kenya today.

Already retired president Moi is busy building up dissent against Raila within ODM and the high noon of Raila versus the Kalenjin is rapidly approaching (see my latest raw notes for details). I am of course aware of the statement that Raila made yesterday which caused a lot of panic in the PNU camp, asking for the release of those arrested in connection to post election violence. That does not change the fact that we have a showdown looming very soon.

Raila will want to re-read Goldsworthy’s book, assuming that he has already read it at least once. He should then note that the Kalenjin community even in the days to come as they rise against him, are very important for his long time survival. I have no doubt on my mind as to who the winner will be in such a contest and neither should anybody who understands the current political situation in the country. Hate him or like him, but the fact is that Raila has outsmarted many and will continue to do so for many days to come. But Raila must be careful to appreciate the largest community in the Rift Valley, even as his political enemies. And in the contest to come must make sure that whatever he does, and whatever the government that is part of does, the Kalenjin should not be defeated completely.

His political partners at PNU are already eager that the “Kalenjin threat” is dealt with once and for all and have already assigned huge sums of money to the project and have made all sorts of promises which I discuss in great detail my raw notes this week.

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Couple's midnight row over strange sms


Anonymous said...

Good post chris!!! I will comment on it much later on.

Anonymous said...

We as Kenyans have to start thinking as Kenyans. If we are to progress as a nation we cannot have a government were one ethnic group controls all the ministries and parastatals as has happened under successive governments, most recently under kibaki. Likewise we cannot and should not have parties that are based on nothing other than ethnicity, because these leaders consume the wealth they grab amongst themselves and do not do contribute to the development of their own people, hence why you see groups like mungiki, in fact giving the massive land grabbing under kenyatta, moi and kibaki their respective communities should have more to show for. Instead it is just a clique of elite bootlickers who do nothing just to satisfy themselves, yet people continuin voting for this crop of thieving leadership. Raila is also a member of the elite, make no mistake about that but while others just sat back at let their bellies get full, he sacrificed his freedom and life to stand up against injustice to the KENYAN people, that is why he is a LEADER, that is why the newspaper will find the slightest thing involving him to make a story because he works and he exposes things elitist land grabbing politicians do not want exposed. He has his faults yes, without a doubt but he is the TRULY THE BEST LEADER amongst current Kenyan politicians. There are other leaders who are developing but as far as who is ready now and in fact is the man the majority of Kenyans voted for in December, it is AGWAMBO. When people mention Raila, Kaloozer, and Uhuru amongst potential Presidents in 2012, the immediate thing that comes to my mind is that people are thinging along tribal lines. Closer examiniation should lead any voter to ask what has Uhuru Kenyatta done or demonstrated that would qualify him to be the leader of our beloved country? Apart from his last name, this man was taken from obscurity by a scheming Moi to be placed as the commander in chief. If his historical act as leader of the opposition is not enough to go by then look at the amount of KANU MPs he delivered to parliament verus under Moi and his land-grabbing father and you have his leadership abilities right there. Next you have Kaloozer "I need a hug" musyoka, this guy was in KANU for years serving in one of the most oppressive governments in our history, is this where he developed is servant leadership? If he is so humble why did he not see the light that he was only ever going to finished third amongst the 2007 candidates and be Raila's VP as was once suggested instead of now joining hands with the man he supposedly was condemning during his miracle campaigns. Remember Raila and ODM had send he was working with PNU, again they were exposed adn through their collusion with kivuitu (another waste of sperm) they stole from the Kenyan people something that no value can be placed on. Next you have Kibaki just look at the corruption that took place while he was sleeping on the job (most likely with wambui), and ask yourself irrespective of tribe whether that is the kind of leadership you wanted coming into 2008? Finally you have Raila, don't know much about him? pick up a newspaper. This guy warned us about the Artur brothers, led Kenyans to reject a constitution that would have taken us back to square one, Exposed those who did not already know about the true character of mwai kibaki, walked out of government when he saw those close to the president were no longer working for the people who voted them in, helped alongside others to bring down KANU and the monster and thief that is moi and the killer that is biwott, who campaigned alongside the ODM pentagon after parting ways with judas to win the votes of the nearly 4 million Kenyan voters with a clear majority to win the Presidency. Even after election theft, had the courage and the humbleness to back down from genuine and legitimate claim to the Presidency and agreed to work with a thief whom despite an impressive education and background, shamelessly and carelessly stole from Kenyans for the sake of peace. I ask you my fellow Kenyans who the man for the presidency in 2012 is, Right Honourable Prime Minister Raila Amollo Odinga aka Agwambo aka the man myself and the majority of kenyans voted for President in december 2007 aka the People's President.

Anonymous said...

Ya just a lout who doesnt deserve any response. When ya come 2 reality we will be miles ahead.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Chris. I've read the Goldworthy book and it is definitely a must read for every Kenyan interested in politics.

Asante for highlighting it.

Phil said...

Chris, I agree with you partly.

The upcoming constitutional review that we have been promised will create a new constitution within a year will make elections and politics in general to be competition on issues and policies as opposed to competition between tribes! karua's behavior shows that , this process may just end up being a waste of time and money and the old constitution remains.

What I also want to stress is the Kenyan voter of 2007 is the most enlightened of all Kenyan voters since independence. There is every chance the 2012 voter will be even more informed and probably very angry with politicians! Infact current crop of voters are much more informed than the voter of 1969 - when Mboya was in his prime.

I believe more and more people are nowadays voting on the basis issues rather than ethnicity.

Unfortunately the NARC/PNU candidate of 2003/2007 has shown beyond any doubt that old schoolers will never let this country from their evil grip. Kibaki betrayed the dreams of millions in 2003 and it is no surprise old schoolers Moi, Nyachae, Karume, Michuki were all in his camp in 2007, and he just had to misuse Kivuitu so as to survive. Thats right, old schoolers are an endangered species.

Liquidating Raila (God forbid!) or any member of the pentagon is suicide and will only boomerang on them. The Mboyas, Oukos, Mbais, JMs and Pintos may have gone quietly, but killing Raila at this point in our history would be akin to dropping an atomic bomb that would wipe Kenya off the world map.It is a possibility but I urge them to consider the future of this country before they sink this country into even deeper hell!!

PS> There's so far no direct evidence of Arap Moi's role in ODM's woes, but it is a probability. Gideon Moi has taken the baton from the old man, but I see no hope in KANU's revival that is a dead horse and many will misuse Gideon to eat funds exposed by Kroll . The only national party worth talking about in Kenya today is ODM. That is a fact!

Anonymous said...


When dealing with Kalenjins, the best thing Raila can do is to go back and re-read the letter that Mutahi Ngunyi wrote last year about why Kalenjins would be voting for him and against Kibaki. As to how people will vote in 2012 one thing is already clear: the success of Dec'07 ODM campaign platform of "kabila adui yetu" can not be guaranteed. They will have to look for some other strategy or thing to demonize as a method of conning votes from Kikuyu haters. If you remove hatred for Kikuyus from the campaign equation, Raila cannot win any significant votes ouside Luo Nyanza. If you doubt that fact look at his performance in the presidential elections of 1997.

Phil said...


What a load of crap.

Ive heard this myth before, that Raila is unelectable.

Toa hiyo, leta ingine!

Anonymous said...

When it came to distributing positions among the Kalenjins, Raila shortchanged the Kipsigis (the largest Kalenjin sun-tribe).
Let him explain to them why he conned them. The same murmuring is going on among the Taita/Taveta people. And the Mungiki are restlessly waiting for him to fulfil his promise of negotiating with them. And don't forget he promised the Luos instant economic liberation. The DOMO chicken are are beginning to come home to roost!!!

Anonymous said...

Anon @11:53

You forgot that the Luhyas don't want to be called deputy captains of the Luos anymore. The Muslim corner of ODM seems to be the only quiet corner for the moment.

Anonymous said...

If I were Kibaki I would release the Kalenjin and Mungiki youth and stop Raila from milking the issue for whatever it is worth. You know Raila thrives on creating grievances.

Anonymous said...

typical PNU strategy

try every trick in the book to generate and manufacture discontent within ODM ranks or at least create the perception, why?
ODM has a clear development agenda, PNU does not. pure and simple. like a rat looking for a way into the granary, it will explore each potential crack. driven to even crazy lengths, and geting more desperate with every attempt.

the attempts made so far post elections

a) raila weakening (PM motorcade)
b) compromise ODM with PM and cabinet posts
c) split in ODM (sijui kipsigis, )
most recent
d) opposition within the ranks
e) bantu /nilotes segregation
f) luhyas want more

like phil says
leta ingine

i bet harmonising the ODM and PNU manifesto is the greatest silent coup ever by PNU because, usign their blank pages and incorporating the very well thought out ODM regional manifestos, completely wipes out any new feature or advantage ODM will ever have regarding policies and agenda items. It is both naive and gullible of ODM to hand on a silver platter the one key reason most of us are in ODM i.e the principles and policies for reform

phil, you tell those ODM think tanks that they sold out the heart of ODM in the name of harmonising manifestos. (my personal opinion)


Anonymous said...

When we elected Raila we were not anticipating stealing from kivuitu and desertion from kalooser .With limited positions in a strange coalition not every tribe will get something besides we were not electing RAO to give us ministries for our tribes but to start a new dispensation where such things will not matter, but we were derailed by this kifucky.kaluzer.kivuitu..(KKK)freight train. We ARE NOT DOING JUSTICE TO THE SMALLER TRIBES when we start mentioning that ministries should be given according to tribal numbers.....last I checked we were trying to reduce the number of ministries.....We can't eat out cake and have it.The message we should send out loud and clear is that any kenyan qualified stands a chance. What has skewed the whole thing is that in the past kenyan leaders have simply made sure that their tribes qualified by all sorts of crookish justifications including topping up marks and selective international and national scholarships....marginalisation of certain areas,so that if whe were to employ today based on qulification certain tribes will not be represented while other will be over represented. We all know which tribes have been benefitting. And the fact that the kuyos have used their qualifications to exclude others and loot ,rather serve them. Our only hope is to build a culture of people with a national outlook. I other words the kipsigis, taiata may have popular leaders who may not necesarily have a national outlook.....just a tought..they may have quantity but not necessarily quality maybe that informed the choosing....all we can do is guess but when all is said and done I think the most important thing is to ask the question ,'Has RAO ensured that service has been delivered to the Kipsigis to their satisfaction?' Not the kifucky type where he claims the economy grew and nobody saw it like he was a magician pulling out a rabit from a hat. If the answer is yes RAO has done the job ,provided the service to the customers satisfaction,then it matters not wether they got a ministerial position or not. The bottom line is service service. Thats what we elect leaders for. I hope

Sir Alex

Anonymous said...

I was amazed to read this paper/presentation below and the similarities with what is happening in kenya. you can easily blot out the dates and names and replace them with our own locally "manufactured/brewed" flavors. we have in a period of 6 months gone through radical extremism that others worked through decades. and if thats not enough we now have a few stub nosed characters attempting to deepen the chasms

to the ethnic neanderthals kindly read the article first then try to understand it, but who am i kidding.

to the rest of you upright and thinking kenyans, irrespective of the political divide (myself being ODM damu, mi ODM mukeleldo)

lets us learn and forge ahead.


Anonymous said...

This is nonsense , so the kikuyus are using Raila to fight who , himself? , kenya is in a unique situation and Raila had very limited choices , if he rejected the deal probably he would be in jail now with ruto etal or may be even dead.You can imagine where we would be if R did not swallow his pride , what remedy do you think michuki had to quel the chaos, his was just to buy more guns and recruit mor mungiki untill the enemy was wiped out.Raila is not being used he is a s
tactical politician , he sees a problem and sees it as an opportunity to advance himself by being a solution , just wait and see how his party will wash PNu in the coming by elections , that is unless PNU pulls another kibaki.

Anonymous said...

anon5:00 PM

thanks for telling it as is!! see central province people are used to stealing and if they do not get there way then they send mungiki out to slaughter and behead innocent Kenyans
What I ask is what was Moi's role in the genocide??? didn't he do the same shiate in previous years?? I would not be surprised as stories are trickling out from mungiki mouths that Eldoret was planned to destabilize and confuse kenyans- so that they concentrate on the "Martha Karua's words ethnic cleansing!! go read their main manifest black book or document they send out while the votes were being counted and Kivuitu was being pressured to read the results??
my question is- how did Martha Karua know there was going to be ethnic cleansing in the Rift Valley?? unless she and PNU planned way ahead?? and how come she specifically mentioned in the same document " repeat the words ethnic cleansing and people will start believing it and mention Ruto's name?? Look at the date of that document?? it is dated before the Eldoret church saga??

Moi ?? what was his hand in all this?? he is the only PNU supporter who can have his troupe move around rift valley without looking out of place!!(speak the same language)
if he did it before why not then?? because Ruto had brought him down to his knees!! his sons were also voted out!! who would want Ruto hurt or jailed?? Moi and his sons and whom were they supporting?? Kibaki and PNU!!

People should look very closely on what Mungiki are saying and other people in the Rift Valley!! this time the truth willl be told!! wapende wasipobenda!!Eldoret does not look right!! that was a very well laid out plan to disrupt and confuse the country while rigging elections!! the two go hand in hand!! kenyan's were not fooled!!

PNU master ducument?? dated before it happened mentioned ethnic cleasning!! why ?? when it had not taken place??

Moi!! Kibaki??? what was the marriage?? Moi has made people kill each other before in the rift valley tribes against each other!! so why not fix his enemy in a big way after a major loss?? Moi flew in to nairobi while the vote dispute was taking place !! and met with Kibaki before going back to his Rift valley home?? what was their plan of action?? before the kibaki rigged announcement??
something smells like shiate and kenyans should look very closely.
How does one write a document mentioning something that has not taken place then viola it happens??

sources confirm the PNU master Document was written part by one Martha Karua and their she was on BBC shouting Ethnic cleansing- so how did she know??

Anonymous said...

adding- Martha Karua's BBC Interview looked very rehearsed- like she did not look like a person shocked about the Eldoret saga- after all she wrote about it before it happened in fact 2 weeks before!! How come?? go back and look at the PNU master document!! that was distributed to members!! "Repeat ethnic cleansing many times it says and in the same breath mention Raila and Ruto's name?? how can that be possible?? before it happened??

Anonymous said...

Moi is a true statesman, he fought for independence and he is all too aware Kenya under Raila will collapse.

Anonymous said...

Anon @ 2:37 you must be on Moi pay role or his secret gay lover to utter such nonsense.

Anonymous said...

Anon at 5:00, You must be/were in a deep slumber. That RAO would be dead, I can bet you even my house that would never have happened in this lifetime with the sentiment on the ground as it were. Kenya as we know it, or a certain region of Kenya would seize to exist. These are not the 90s, during Mois's time when people took a lot sitting down, please wake up from that dream.

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