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Saturday, November 17, 2007

Will ODM-Kenya Be The Surprise Party Of The 2007 General Elections?

Long before the elections we discussed an interesting strategy that KANU was putting in place then that would position the party perfectly to receive the inevitable fall out from the nominations.

Well Kanu bigwigs changed their minds and threw in their lot with incumbent Mwai Kibaki, but their strategy now seems to have been taken up by Hoo Ndii Emm.

Details are still emerging but ODM-K top officials have been busy today receiving defectors from both sides of the divide.

Actually this puts the party in a stronger position than most people may realize. It means that the party has a good chance of spreading its’ tentacles into both PNU and ODM strongholds. The end result is that this party of all parties will end up with the most nationalistic outlook of all 3 major political parties. From my quick projections it could also mean that ODM-K will end up with the second largest number of seats in the 10th parliament.

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Taabu said...

Kabogo defected to ODM after being floored by Thuo (ex-Citi Hoppa CEO). Just like JJ rescured himself in Safina after PNU developed gapping holes in the high political waters. It is expediency and scoundrels per excellence. Money cannot buy love but can definitely BUY VOTES.

Phil said...

Chris, I fail to understand your projections sometimes.

How can a party that is receiving defectors who have lost in the primaries of other (larger) parties be expected to have the 2nd highest number of MPs? For example, what chances do Koech and Osundwa stand against the ODM candidates?

Some of your predictions show a lot of contempt for voters. It is high time that Kumekucha also gave Kenyan voters due respect. The same people who vote in party nominations are the same people who will vote in the general election. So, how will they accept a re-clothed reject?

Another thing, what has steadman been reporting about the popularity of political parties? It is one thing to transport masses to political rallies, and it is quite another to have the masses vote for you and your party. Did you see the big contrast between Kalonzo's Uhuru Park miracle rally and his latest one Kamkunji grounds when he launched the all-important manifesto? Enough said.

chris said...


I also fail to understand how you so quickly jump to protect ODM and potray them in good light. Too much of anything i bad and you could put off even possible ODM voters.

What I meant was that quite a number of "losers" lost unfairly from both PNU and ODM and have a good chance of winning at the ballot box with ODM-K.

There is also the fact that no real campaigning had taken place prior to the nominations. The real "action" starts after the nominations. That's when the boys are seperated from the men.


Taabu said...

Pole pole Phil not so fast. By the way predictions are just that with the binary outcome of either being right or wrong. You have all the right to protect your turf but the obsession of seeing only WARTS in your competitors in the height of intolerance and cleverly crafted mischief.

No ELECTION took place during nomination and the ral one awaits on Dec 27. For your information there are two types of votes: the decided one and many otherwise. It is the later group that matters and they can go either way. Don't write out any candidate yet unless your face is impervious to eggs.

Next time please Bw Phil tell ODM mandarins to make good use of the tidy millions they cashed in from nominations to run effecient and foolproof nominations.

Transporting ballot materials to Migori in an overnight bus is unacceptable. The nominees deserve better and not just being treated as milk cows. What is your take bro?

Anonymous said...

If ODM K does turn out to be the surprise party, Kalonzo's previous prophecies of coming political miracles in the horizon will seem to be more like well-calculated deductions making him appear to be more shrewd a political player than he really is. I agree with all of you that primary nominations are not the same as parliament seat clinching elections, however can anyone ever recall a time in our country's history when the term "party member" was as FLAKY as it is now?It seems to me in these elections the quality of loyalty has already and will continue to be substituted with phony allegiance-come 2008 coalitions that form the Govt or opposition will simply be marriages of convenience once again with no real agenda for progress by Kenyans

Anonymous said...

Chris, defectors are loosers. They do not add any value to their new parties. They do not come with any votes for their new prezzo candidate.

Taabu said...

You want a surprise party? Watch out for the ARK/Safina navigating the turbulent political waters. Smart Kibugi must be having the nose for success, ama?

Anonymous said...

Is ODM a democratic party? when did Anyang Nyongo the self styled professor become a holy cow? Is this want the ODM means by change? In my view ODM is the most undemocratic and autocratic party in Kenya today? If The ECK was truly independent, ODM shouls have been banned from participating in the elections. Kioko. BC, Canada. Kazi iendelee. washa domo ya upuzi.

Anonymous said...

Hey Kioko what about the direct nomination of Mutahu Kagwe, the mzee MP of Kiamba, Michuki he of rattle a snake among others.
Of course Nyongo deserved direct nomination, it should have been done earlier. Also note it does not necessarily mean the newcomers are better than the sly folks we've had in the 9th parliament what with NTV's repetition of an 850K salo without allowances one can be tempted to kill for such a job. I'm beginning to think I need to do some groundwork and declare my candidature in 2012 waht with free money and all?? No party would replace Nyongo with just anyone from the ground, I just disagree with the timing, but PANUA na Ho-ndi- em would have retained such a member too- UNOPPOSED. Wacha domo domo!!

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