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Monday, September 17, 2007

Votes That Raila Odinga Would Get Today From 6 Provinces


Many times for the protection of my sources, I cannot name them. This is the case with the fascinating figures I hereby publish here which show the possible votes Raila Odinga would get, were Kenyans to go to the polls today.

Kindly note that I am NOT making any predictions. Two and a half months is a long time and anything can happen.

Interestingly the estimates exclude Central province and Eastern where it is widely expected that candidate Raila will be whitewashed and will probably get very few votes. However the following is the percentage of votes he would get from the remaining 6 provinces were elections to be held today. The six provinmces covered are Nyanza, Western, North Eastern, Coast, Nairobi and Rift Valley.

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Anonymous said...

Simon Says,
Chris, do you think Raila has know idea of what will be used against him? Will he take them down lying?

How about this: It will be Moi's word against Raila's. Whose word will kenyans trust? That person will be the winner.

How sure are you that Raila isn't cooking something as well? All in the name of protecting Kibaki. When will he fold his sleeves and get muddy on the real work?

Vikii said...

Ha ha ha ha. Chris let me tell you what's gonna happen. Raila is gonna lose these coming elections BIG TIME. This is now not the usual Vikii talking. No. I am now sobre , serious and with absolutely no intention to spite your poor soul. Allow me the opportunity to expound on this more fully:

One, these percentages are not right but they are not far off the mark. In my opinion Raila Odinga will win in four provinces, Kibaki in three and Steve in one. For the sake of argument, let us assume these percentages are right. If they are then your assumption that with these percentages he can win is laughable at the very best. These percentages coupled with 0% in both Eastern and Central only gives Raila 3.2 Million votes. The winning candidate will ganner almost 4 million votes and please do not delete this comment. (I have noticed you have been deleting MY comments after every two months).

Here is my predictions and I can bet my Friday drink that they are more accurate:

Kibaki Raila Kalonzo
Nyanza 15% 80% 5%
Western 37% 60% 3%
N Eastern 45% 55% 5%
Coast 30% 50% 20%
Nairobi 50% 40% 10%
Rift Valeey 55% 40% 5%
Eastern 45% 0% 55%
Central 99% 0% 1%

Now that means kibaki will win with 3.92M votes followed by raila with 2.95 and my presidential candidate will tail with 1.11 M votes.

In this prediction, I factored in everything there is to factor in and it was done with all honesty.

Any questions and criticism are welcome.

PS. Due to the inexplicably unproportional citerion Moi used in creating constituencies, ODM will ganner the majority seats in the coming polls. I am also willing to explain this.

NSIS Nairobi.

Vikii said...

sorry, kibaki wii get 40% in N Eastern. And so his final score stands at 3.91 M

Proud Kikuyu Woman said...

Oh, Chris, you do delete comments, too? I searched your blog on what you had written about MB back in the day, but it was gone. It was nasty, guess it had to give way to JK saga, huh? Well?Will go look for the anti-'this tribe' post.
On your figures, let's wait, nay, let's vote and see.

Taabu said...

Vikii, out of curiosity what samplimg ann weighting method did you employ? Hope its scientific. But even if it were why are you so MEAN to brother Steve. How dare you reduce his stature to winning only a single province and so marginally? Either you are a pessimist or simply MEAN my small brother. Steve is definitely worth more than you think.

PS: Please pass me your formula of extrapolation. I hope its coverage probability is plausible too.

Vikii said...

Taabu i will vote for steve but Kenyans being who they are (They adore thieves and murderers, that is why they always voted for Moi with overwhelming majorities), Steve has no hope unless he becomes a thief and a propagandist.

There was no sampling because it was not a research, only a pretty simple estimation. About the weighting method, well, only the population(Registered voters and ethnic composition of the same) in the various provinces.

Finally dont forget the now traditional 58% voter turn out.

PS. steve my buddy is only proving a point or two. He will get 55% in eastern coz our Embu, Mbeere and Meru brothers told us they are more kikuyu than kamba.

Jangili said...

Baba Gidi should be careful about the tasty morsels on Raila that he is prepared to release. People in glass houses should not throw stones

kalamari said...

Any shenanigan unleashed by baba Giddy is bound to backfire and in fact escalate Raila’s chances. Especially, if it has anything to do with 1982. Knowing what we know now about huyu baba wa taifa, it’s a pity the coup was not successful.

Phil said...

For the FIRST TIME Chris in a very long time, I want to congratulate you for publishing factual figures concerning Raila in this blog. However what you are failing to tell your readers here is that Steadman & Associates last week deliberately failed to publish similar opinion poll results because they were deemed to be in favour of Raila and they were ordered from above to commission another survey beginning this week after the formation of the PNU and factor support from the provinces for all these non-starter constituent parties.

The intelligence information we received (from the same sources who have forced our luminaries to maintain more than three residences in Nairobi and sometime spend nights in hotels) tells us that Raila has been on the lead in the presidential race for a long time - as far back as May 2007. Actually - Raila star sky-rocketted from the day he launched his vision. Althought hat event did not receive enough local press coverage due to the KQ airplane crash in Cameroun.

Anyone who has their 'ear to the ground' in Nairobi must have heard these results last weekend. According to the latest with-held results; Raila is still leading with 46.7% while Kibaki is constant at 44.25% meanwhile Kalonzo continues to dips from 11% to 8.9%

The results are based on an estimated voter result as follows:-

Raila 3,819,723 47%
Kibaki 3,615,413 44%
Kalonzo 734,663 09%
Total Turn out; 8,169,799 100
National turn out 58%

PROVINCIAL BREAKDOWN (Including Eastern and Central that Chris omiited in his published reults)

Region : Turn out: Kibaki : Raila : Kalonzo
Central Prov : 73% : 94% : 4% : 2%
Coast Prov : 42%: 33%: 56%: 11%
Eastern Prov: 52%: 51%: 12%: 37%
Nairobi Prov: 47%: 46%: 45%: 9%
NEP Prov: 25%: 27%: 69%: 3%
Nyanza Prov 70%: 13%: 85%: 3%
Rift Valley Prov: 66%: 31%: 65%: 4%
Western Prov: 48%: 30%: 69%: 1%

Raila will easily get 45% in six provinces namely Nyanza, Rift Valley,Western,Coast ,Nairobi and NEP..Therefore if he wins the national tally the run-off is unlikely. This may be the reason for GNU's (Kibaki's) certain interest in minimum reforms aka 50% requirement in national tally. They are acting based on information received from the government's own intelligence.

On the other hand Kibaki is assured of 45% and above in only three provinces Central,Nairobi and Eastern. He will need to work hard to secure Coast, Western and RVP..any of two, to secure his re-election. Nyanza is completely out of his reach - despite weak assurances from an ageing and sickly Nyachae.

Moi's role in the coming elections will be very very neglible. Infact, he is considered a liability rather than an asset in Kibaki's re-election plans. All independent and government surveys indicate Kenyans want Moi to retire and keep off politics - they had enough of him in his long 50 year political career including 24 years are president. They want to forget that.

Another observation, the voter turn out nationally is poor, considering the amount of money spent in voter registration. The ECK must be compelled to conduct intense voter education so as to justify the investment and also more importantly enhance the democratic participation. The other solution is to do away with voter cards, and instead convert national ID cards and/or passports to be used in voting - instead of voter cards. It will need to be streamlined, but it will significatnyl increase voter turnout. Online voting also is another way of increasing voter turn-out.

Vikii, last week I did a personal and extensive on the ground tour of Ukambani and Coast provinces, and I really wonder where newspaper analyst get their data from when they make wild allegations like Kalonzo will decide who will be MP in Ukambani. It may surprise you to know that Raila's ODM has strongly set its eyes on at least 6 kamba constituencies in Machakos and Kitui. According to my survery which I did in major Ukambani shopping centres and markets, less than 40% Kambas support a Kalonzo presidency and Kalonzo does not have more than 15% of the coastal vote that Labour Party supremo Kennedy Kiliku is purporting to control in Changamwe and Kisauni areas. This lie has made Kiliku a prominent personality in ODM-K's summit comprising Kalonzo, Ojiambo and others. Although Kalonzo is slightly above Raila in Eastern Province, Kibaki has more votes in that province - but both gentlement are eclipsed in Coast and Rift Valley by Raila.

The sheng name of Maina is Maish, Adhiambo is Adhis, true?
Kariuki is Karis, Otieno is Otis.
Kibaki is Kibaks or Obaks which means remain or omit in sheng.
Then doesn't it logically follow that RAILA IS RAIS.

Have a fantastic day. Ametosha!

Anonymous said...

An open letter to all Kihiis in and out of the Kavirondo gulf: My name is kioko. am Bantu and of course circumcised. This is a very important ritual that transforms the individual to a responsible position in society. That is why Bantus do not throw stones like you idiots. Get your history books and read how in 1969 over 200 stupid jaluos were shot like dogs when they tried throw stones at President Jomo Kenyatta's motorcade. Their leader, a stupid and toothless old kihii called Jaramogi Odinga was arrested and whipped until his charcoal black buttocks turned red with his baboon like-blood. Another fish eating kavirondo kihii (tom mboya) had also been shot dead through his anus in a nairobi street. Again when some kihiis tried to overthrow President Daniel Arap Moi in 1982, what happened? They were castrated and then hanged like dogs. I understand they cried like pigs before being strapped onto ropes and hanged. Later, that self-style "DR" Ouko was shot through his mucus filled head after trying to undermine Daniel Arap Moi. And your Raila? He was chained in Kamiti for 8 years by Daniel Arap Moi and fed on faeces! The idiot was later released and served as a page boy in Moi's court. I wish some Raila bodyguard could empty his G3 into the anus of this fish eating fool and save Kenya lots of trouble.kioko. BC. Canada.

Sue said...

Congrats Chris for posting the truth.

Phil thats a good one on sheng names especially the one on RAILA is RAIS and KIBAKI OBAKS.

Surely ametosha!

John Maina said...

thanks phil for the update with sheng.

Anonymous said...

Folks like Kioko do not deserve to be answered, coz they are the Cancer that eats this nation.
Hate does not take you anywhere, it's amuses me how people rejoice and shout out loud at the Poverty of the Jangos. But have you ever wondered that without the support of the so called govt u cld still not keep a good thing down?

Proud Kikuyu Woman said...

Phil, good sheng, that one.
Kioko, even better reverse psychology. The pattern is very easy to pick, bro.Resembles 'Chris's' hate posts and Luke's sarcastic ones. Now 'the team' doesn't have to do the dirty job of labelling all Kikuyus tribalists, when they can outsource it to one jamaa who hates on behalf of all 'people'! (one for the day from PKW;bantu means watu. Kioko and Co. I'm sure you could put a twist on that and use it in another insider hate comment).
The world surely feels all the more sorry for you Luos.Hope this translates into $$.

Anonymous said...

Yes. Bantu means watu. Let me tell you a short story. One day, we stopped at an accident scene at Burnt Forest on our way to Eldoret. We asked the people at the scene about the dead and the injured and someone told us "Oh, it was bad , four people and one jaluo died!!" You see what I mean! But, please do not crucify me on what other people said or should not have said. Of course, I was sad about the four who died. Do not ask me about the kihii. I have the right to reserve my comments. Kioko. BC. Canada.

Vikii said...

Yes Mr.Phil. You didnt disappoint me at all. I expected just that.

I only have a few questions for you mister;

One, where in particular do you expect Raila Odinga to get 12% of the votes cast in Eastern province? This ranks as your (Together with steadman and standard)most ridiculous finding so far.

Number two; Which are these six parliamentary seats in Ukambani that the Odinga party is getting or to put it more bluntly, name me any constituency where their candidate will emerge second. I know each one of the Ukambani constituencies pretty well believe you me. Just tell me which ones are those. I will also conduct "an extensive tour of Ukambani" to gather that information. The problem is that I am not sure which Ukambani I am supposed to "research" on. There is nothing to research on Phil, absolutely nothing.

Then about the voter turn out. How did you arrive at the expected voter turn out in Nyanza and Central. Since 1992 Phil, the voter turn out has been dropping and if the last elections are anything to go by, then I expect you to know we are expecting a 68% and a 55% turn out in Central and Nyanza respectively. I can hear u wanting to talk about the referendum as if it was an election. Just quote one election in which Nyanza registered a 70% voter turn out, just one. Quote me one occassion Eastern (I didnt say Ukambani) registered a below 53% voter turn out. This is just a dumb forecast Phil, there is no better word.

Then we have rift valley. If Kibaki gannered 43% in 2002 even with the Moi-Uhuru euphoria, what explanation can you now give for the expected decline? Please dont tell me it is the huge crowds ODM
draws in Eldoret. Rift valley is not Eldoret.

This report Mr. Phil belongs to the trash bin. I am surprised you have the guts to make it public. its as ludicrous as they come.

luke said...

Here we go again,just flogging the side-issue while the horse is dead-PKW, pray tell what have i got to do with Kioko and co?i am sarcastic in my comments not rabid tribalist or magnetic victim.dislike me if you must, i love you but don't link me with that Canadian from B.C. please
i love you all

vikii said...

So is Raila Rais? You people are such dreamers. Where will you guys hide in when he looses the election with one of the biggest margins?

Anonymous said...

Please let us discuss serious issues! How comes nobody talks about AIDs. Has any research been done to find out where the railaherd is ravaged by AIDS? Could it have something to do with their refusal to get circumcised? The country is losing 700 jaluo kihiis everyday. At this rate, this primitive race shall extinct within a decade. Why can't Raila sell his hummer to buy second hand condoms for his promiscous tribe? Do other Kenyans have an obligation to help these stupid birodos when their foolish King talks only about MOUs and new constitutions? Will circumcision be enforced in the new constitution? kioko. BC. Canada.

Anonymous said...

why all the excitmentabout raila,same old promises.but his folk are just irritating.l

Phil said...

Vikii, I cannot reveal to you which constituencies. We've been through this before; if 'borrowing' from visions is anything to go by.

You know something else bro? your continued prediction for a big loss for Raila reminds me of Kiraitu's pre-referendum declaration of "we shall shake every corner of this country". HA!

Vikii said...

You also forget that I was in the Orange camp during the referendum and so was Kalonzo. You are being a typical Raila Odinga supporter now, claiming solo credit for collective feats.

Stop avoiding my question. Since you "researched" on Ukambani and Coast, which constituencies are these that will go Raila way in Coast and which ones in ukambani can their candidate come second? Or to put it more bluntly once again, name me the parliamentary candidates interested in their ticket in Ukambani. They will have to pay people to run so that they can claim to have fielded candidates in 'all 210 constituencies'. Those candidates will perform so dismally that it will be a huge embarassment Phil. Dont tell me you cant disclose now. Disclose what?

I dont deny raila is a gifted politician. He has managed to exploit the folly of some kenyans. But I am afraid you exaggerate his influence. That's the plain truth Phil.

Anonymous said...

phil. nugu ino.

Anonymous said...

Apparently there appears to be a shortage of circumcised men in BC, Canada otherwise a certain anonymous fellow would not have the time to spread hate speech. Perhaps he should come out of the closet now and embrace his homosexuality!-Unbwogable

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