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Monday, August 27, 2007

Where Do Musalia Mudavadi's Loyalties Lie?


In 2002, Musalia Mudavadi made a very painful decision which he knew would lose him the elections. He decided to stick with Moi during an hour of need for Kanu and the old man. For that decision he was hurriedly appointed Vice President and went into the record books as the shortest-serving VP in the history of Kenya.

Now Mr Mudavadi is very upset at the rumours doing the rounds that as soon as he loses his bid to be the presidential candidate in ODM, he will head straight back to mama na baba Moi. A visibly angry Mudavadi told the Mombasa people that those rumours were nothing short of ridiculous. But are they?

Would Mudavadi really refuse to give Baba Gidi a helping hand? He did as he was told 5 short years ago, what should stop him doing the same this time round? You see the Mudavadis and the Mois go a long way back. Musalia's dad, Moses Sabstone Mudamba Mudavadi once promoted Daniel Moi to a P3 teacher and Moi never forgot. In fact Misalia and former president Moi are related through marriage.

It is very possible that the so called "leaked story" of Moi's strategy for Rift Valley involving the Luhya community could be pressure on Raila Odinga to say Musalia Tosha. I say this because Moi's strategy has never "leaked" before...

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Phil said...

Mudavadi's loyalty lies in ODM. Moi, Kibaki and even the local press trying to further divide the opposition party will not work. It worked with Kalonzo because of the the 'favour' he imagines to have received from the steadman opinion polls and council of elder's sub-committee 'leaked report'.

True the Mudavadi's family may share some relation with the Moi family, but so does Joe Nyagah and Norman Nyagah. So does Uhuru Kenyatta and Beth Mugo. But that blood relation sometime counts little in determining political destiny of individuals. My opinion is that Moi's time in shapping this country's future is over. Where was Moi and Jirongo in 2003 when Mudavadi faced public humiliation of "being the shortest serving VP?" Luhya leaders like Kombo and Jirongo are jealous that Mudavadi is ranked higher than themselves by the Luhyas and their council of elders.

As for Arap Moi, I kindly ask him to try and brush shoulders with his peers across the continent in trying to resolve problems of the continent and leave local politics to the players on the field. Kenyans are watching them and do not need Moi to act as a self-appointed shepherd. His own era was the darkest in the history of this country and far much worse than that of the colonialist. I do not think Kenyans will forget him easily. He is obviously looking to protect himself and his cronies from facing legal action for their past crimes. Let him keep off.

My take is that Mudavadi faces a challenge that is triple pronged:

One of Mudavadi's problem, just like Kalonzo, is because MP's from his stronghold Vihiga, Kakamega and Butere Mumias Districts fear that if Mudavadi is not the ODM candidate then their chances of being elected back to parliament is diminished. He needs those MPs to fight his battles in ODM committees and sub-commitees.

Another problem is that of all the serious presidential candidates in 2007, he is the only one coming out of outside parliament, ie not an MP and therefore does not enjoy parliamentary platform enjoyed by his competitors.

Another blot in his record is in serving the KANU regime during the time the Golderberg scandal was hatched and executed when he was in charge of the finance ministry. The fact that the Bosire Commission report has not been released portends a real threat for Mudavadi or any other connected parties like Saitoti. The government can choose to selectively release contents of this report, like they have done with the Ndungu Land Commission report, so as to 'fix' opponents.

Thirdly, within ODM itself, he stands little chance of defeating Raila in any national political contest be it acclamation, delegates or consensus. As you rightly point out, it is only Raila himself who can save him by declaring 'Mudavadi Tosha'. That is a little far fetched but not entirely impossible.

All in all I think Mudavadi will be in better company in ODM whether as president or as a mere party member.

Taabu said...

Common Phil!. What is your post above meant to communicate? Are you inadvertently admitting that the other aspirants are but cheerleaders, ama? Kiengereza ni ngumu na ilikuja na meli zingine zilibaki majini. But please re-read your post and tell us more. You appear to have let the cat out of the bag.

Phil said...

Sio hivyo Bw. Taabu. My comments are based on a nationalistic viewpoint which has always been thus; there is no political player in present in Kenya who has better menu of democratic credentials, experience, capacity, values, support and resources than Raila. Thats why I said; Mudavadi might need his "tosha" blessings to make it to state house, otherwise it remains a distant dream. And Mudavadi himself has confirmed it by saying he does not want to assemble a team of ethnic brothers in Bukhungu Stadium to declare his candidature. In other words, he would rather remain a team player, loose democratically but retain his honour than conduct himself like Jirongo or Kombo - who incidentally dont see anything else beyond the word Luhya.

But I can assure you, our ODM delegates congress will be held in a democratic manner and hoping that the general election is free and fair, the results will confirm to you what I have just said.

Vikii said...

Instead of Raila 'saving' Mudavadi by saying Tosha, let him save himself. I will believe the magic of that word if it works out for him.

derek said...

Phil, PHEW!!! OOH LA LA!

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